Thursday, July9, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mystic, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:22AMSunset 8:24PM Thursday July 9, 2020 5:10 AM EDT (09:10 UTC) Moonrise 11:30PMMoonset 9:45AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 416 Am Edt Thu Jul 9 2020
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Patchy fog this morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri night..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Showers with tstms likely. Some tstms may produce heavy rainfall. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Some tstms may produce heavy rainfall.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun night and Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 416 Am Edt Thu Jul 9 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Strengthening low pressure will move up along the carolina coast late today and pass near cape cod on Saturday bringing heavy rain. A cold front will cross the waters early Sunday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mystic, CT
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location: 41.34, -71.97     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 090850 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 450 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

SYNOPSIS. Weak high pressure will remain over the area today. Low pressure will then approach from the south tonight into Friday night, followed by a series of weak fronts moving through Saturday into early next week. High pressure builds in for the middle of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Some early morning fog/low stratus should dissipate rather quickly after sunrise. Did issue an SPS for some patchy dense fog which ends at 12z.

We are generally looking at another warm and humid day today as the flow becomes more S-SE by afternoon. A mid level ridge, should help reduce the amount of any convection today, however still can not rule out a few isolated storms, so will continue to mention the slight chance of a storm well north and west of NYC. Any storms that do develop should end quickly this evening with the loss of any daytime heating.

With respect to heat and headlines today, have decide to keep the Advisory going for Urban NE NJ, where the best chance of 95 degree heat index values will be reached, but have decided to drop the advisory for NYC. While a few heat indices may reach 95, it wont be widespread, and we wont hit the two day criteria of 95 or greater.

Temperatures today are expected to reach the 80s and lower 90s. With dew points in the upper 60s and lower 70s, heat index values will be in the 90s just about everywhere (with the exception of the south fork of Long Island and coastal New London county).

A moderate risk of rip current development will continue for the ocean beaches via long period S swell.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. An upper level ridge axis will move east, allowing a coastal low pressure system to approach from the south. This low is expected to become better organized and The National Hurricane Center has increased the probability of this system becoming tropical or a sub-tropical cyclone to 80 percent.

While all the forecast models bring the low up the coast, the models really start to differ as the low approaches the local region. The The 00z GFS remains furthest west with the low track, taking the low over NJ into the Lower Hudson valley, while the ECMWF, takes the low south of Long Island, then passing just east of Montauk. The NAM, is in the middle with the low passing over Long Island and up into Connecticut.

Either way, with the low approaching, rain chances increase early Friday morning as it taps into subtropical moisture as it moves up the coast. Rain chance will become likely for much of the day and continue into Friday night.

A low confidence forecast continues for where the heaviest axis of rain will fall, since this will be dependent on where the low actually tracks. Either way, expect a wet period from Friday into Friday night, with rainfall amounts 1 and 2 inches expected, with locally higher amounts possible. PWATs values will range between 2 and 2.5 inches, so expect the rain to be heavy at times.

In addition to the heavy rainfall, a few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible.

The low should move out of the area late Friday night into early Saturday morning, with POPs gradually lowering late Friday night.

With continued onshore flow, tonight lows will remain mild, in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Cloud cover and rainfall should keep temperatures down a bit on Friday, with highs only in the upper 70s and lower 80s.

High rip current risk is expected for Friday especially in the afternoon.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. An upper-level trough and its associated cold front will move into the area Saturday, resulting in hot and humid conditions and the increase chance for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday. The cold front will move off to the east Monday, but the upper-level trough will remain overhead bringing a potential for diurnal convection as well as a gradual trend to a more seasonable airmass through early next week. High pressure builds back across the area for the middle of the week.

Temperatures during the long term period will be in the upper 80s to near 90 with overnight lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Weak high pressure will remain in control through Thursday.

Low stratus with IFR/LIFR cigs continues over much of CT and parts of the Lower Hudson Valley and the south shore of Long Island. Direct terminal impacts only at KGON, vicinity impact at KSWF should continue into the early daylight hours.

VFR by about 13Z, with light SSW winds winds backing SE 5-10 kt by afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. Late tonight. Chance of MVFR or lower cigs, especially near the coast. Friday. MVFR or lower conds. Rain possibly heavy at times with chance TSRA. E winds 15G20kt, backing SE in the evening, then backing S and diminishing overnight. Saturday. MVFR or lower cond likely in SHRA/TSRA, especially in the afternoon. Sunday and Monday. Continued chance mainly afternoon SHRA/TSRA, with MVFR or lower cond possible.

MARINE. The pressure gradient will remain relatively weak through Thursday night. Conditions on the forecast waters will remain below SCA thresholds.

A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect for Friday as low pressure approaches from the south. Winds and seas are expected to increase with gusts to 25 kt and seas building to 4-7 ft. Expect the seas to remain elevated through Saturday, then subside slightly on Sunday. Conditions will remain above SCA conditions into early next week.

HYDROLOGY. Urban and poor drainage flood threat exists with any thunderstorm activity today. Main reason being a lack of steering flow so thunderstorms will be slow moving. Convective coverage will be more isolated today.

There is increasing potential for a moderate to heavy rainfall event Friday into Saturday as a coastal system moves up the Mid- Atlantic coast. Exact timing and track are still uncertain, but this system has the potential to produce at least 1 to 2 inches of rain with higher amounts possible with heavier bands.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . High Rip Current Risk from Friday morning through Friday evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179. NJ . Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NJZ004-006- 103>108. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ350- 353-355.

SYNOPSIS . BC NEAR TERM . BC SHORT TERM . BC LONG TERM . Fig AVIATION . Goodman MARINE . BC/Fig HYDROLOGY . BC/Fig EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 7 mi53 min SSW 2.9 G 4.1 73°F 66°F1015 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 20 mi53 min 73°F 68°F1015.6 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 34 mi53 min SSW 5.1 G 6 74°F 72°F1015.5 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 36 mi53 min S 4.1 G 5.1 70°F 64°F1015.5 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 39 mi86 min WSW 2.9 74°F 1015 hPa72°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 39 mi53 min WSW 1.9 G 2.9 73°F 1016 hPa
PRUR1 40 mi53 min 73°F 73°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 42 mi53 min 73°F 75°F1015.3 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 44 mi59 min SSW 4.1 G 5.1 74°F 73°F1015.3 hPa
PVDR1 44 mi53 min S 5.1 G 5.1 74°F 1015.4 hPa72°F
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 45 mi151 min SSW 7.8 G 7.8 73°F 1015.4 hPa72°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 49 mi53 min SW 8.9 G 11 74°F 1015.2 hPa
FRXM3 49 mi53 min 74°F 72°F

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT4 mi15 minSSW 45.00 miFog/Mist69°F69°F100%1015 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI9 mi18 minSSW 46.00 miOvercast with Haze76°F69°F79%1015.5 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY18 mi17 minWSW 4 mi73°F72°F96%1015.9 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI23 mi15 minWSW 60.75 miFog/Mist70°F70°F100%1015.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGON

Wind History from GON (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7S7S8S5S5S6S7S5SW7S9SW11S8S5S4S5SW4S4CalmS5S3CalmCalmCalmS4
1 day agoSE6SE5SE7E9E6E7E10E8SE8SE10SE8SE8E9E7E8E8E8E11E5SE5SE4S4S5S5
2 days agoN3N3N6NE7N10S8S8SE8SE13SE16
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Tide / Current Tables for Noank, Mystic River entrance, Connecticut
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Noank
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:28 AM EDT     2.62 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:23 AM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:08 PM EDT     2.34 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:43 PM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.62.62.31.91.510.60.30.30.71.31.82.22.32.221.71.310.60.60.91.41.9

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:55 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:02 AM EDT     -3.05 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 09:22 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:09 PM EDT     2.55 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:33 PM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:28 PM EDT     -2.62 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:40 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.521.1-0.1-1.5-2.6-3.1-2.7-1.8-0.50.922.52.31.70.7-0.6-1.8-2.5-2.5-1.8-0.80.41.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.