Wednesday, October16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mystic, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 6:08PM Wednesday October 16, 2019 8:54 AM EDT (12:54 UTC) Moonrise 7:56PMMoonset 9:30AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 716 Am Edt Wed Oct 16 2019
.gale warning in effect from 7 pm edt this evening through late Thursday night...
Today..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt this afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 4 ft. A chance of rain this afternoon.
Tonight..E winds 30 to 35 kt, becoming S 25 to 30 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 45 kt. Seas around 9 ft, building to 16 ft after midnight. A chance of tstms. Rain. Patchy fog after midnight. Some tstms may produce heavy rainfall. Vsby 1 to 3 nm, decreasing to 1 nm or less after midnight.
Thu..W winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 50 kt. Seas 11 to 12 ft.
Thu night..W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt, becoming nw 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas around 9 ft, subsiding to 7 ft after midnight.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Am Edt Wed Oct 16 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A gale center develops rapidly off the nj coast this evening and then tracks across the i-95 corridor of ct, ri and eastern ma tonight then across nh/me Thursday. E to se gales likely ahead of the storm followed by wnw gales winds Thu. Storm force gusts are possible tonight and Thu across the eastern ma waters. Diminishing nw winds Fri and Sat as high pressure builds over the east coast. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mystic, CT
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 41.34, -71.97     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kokx 161228 cca
afdokx
area forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service new york ny
828 am edt Wed oct 16 2019

Synopsis
A strong frontal system will approach today as a low pressure
develops just off the mid atlantic coast. This low will track
just off long island tonight and continue northeast Thursday.

Meanwhile, high pressure will build to the west and move over
the region Friday, remaining through the weekend. Another
frontal system affects the region Sunday night through Tuesday.

Near term through tonight
Made some adjustments to temperatures and dewpoints to better
match observed trends. Pops start time for rain changed slightly
as well. First chances of rain for northeast nj and the lower
hudson valley appear after 11am. Otherwise, rest of forecast
same as before.

Today will start out quiet before quickly deteriorating as an
amplifying northern stream trough interacts with southern stream
energy. This will cause rapid development of low pressure along
the mid-atlantic coast. Strong upper dynamics aided by the
negatively tilted trough, upper jet exit and entrance regions
and thermal forcing will result in the potential for several
inches of rainfall as the secondary low develops. Widespread
moderate to locally heavy rain will produce a general 1 to 3
inches, with the potential for higher amounts in any
convectively enhanced bands. Much of this rain will fall in a 6
to 9 hour period from late afternoon early evening to around
midnight. If higher amounts materialize, there could be
localized flooding, however the probability remains low with the
exception for NE nj where a flash flood watch remains in effect
based on 6 hour gridded ffg.

Ahead of the low, a period of E SE winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up
to 30 mph are likely. Then as the secondary low deepens, the
pressure gradient between the two systems will result in stronger
northwest winds developing overnight especially across the coast.

After collaboration with neighboring offices, have issued a wind
advisory for eastern suffolk county and southern new london
beginning tonight just ahead of the low where winds will be
strongest.

Highs will be in the 60s today and in the upper 40s to 50 degrees
tonight.

Short term Thursday
As the low pulls away into maine on Thursday, strong cyclonic flow
and cold pool instability could result in a few showers lingering
through the afternoon and a mostly cloudy sky.

Strong, gusty winds will prevail on Thursday and it is possible that
wind headlines may be needed with later forecasts. Strongest
winds will be across the far eastern zones where the best mixing
and low level winds will be.

High temperatures on Thursday will be in the 50s to around 60.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
Upper level low will be northeast of the region for Thursday
night. The upper level jet streak SW to NE will be located from
southeast us to nova scotia.

Expecting rising heights thereafter through Saturday as upper
level low moves farther away into the canadian maritimes and an
upper level ridge moves in from the west for the local region.

The upper level ridge axis moves east of the region Saturday night
and will then begin getting amplified Sunday into early next week
along the eastern seaboard. The next jet streak moves in towards
the middle of next week.

At the surface, the surface low will move into the canadian
maritimes while weakening for Thursday night into Friday. High
pressure then builds in from the west for much of the upcoming
weekend. High pressure will be moving offshore Saturday night
into Sunday and will be slow to move eastward. High pressure
gets reinforced offshore for early next week. The next storm
system approaching from the west will start to move in by Monday
night and continue moving in through Tuesday.

No significant changes were made compared to the last long term
forecast. 12z to 00z model trends comparing the ecmwf, gfs, and
canadian trended a little slower with the next low pressure
system and its associated rain for early next week. The timing
of the next system seems to be more focused in the Tuesday into
Tuesday night timeframe so increased pops to better reflect that
model consensus.

Temperatures forecast trend warmer from Friday into the weekend.

Below normal high temperatures forecast for Friday (mid 50s to
near 60), near normal highs for Saturday (mainly lower 60s) and
above normal for highs on Sunday (mid to upper 60s). Then,
slightly warmer highs for forecast for early next week compared
to Sunday.

Aviation 12z Wednesday through Sunday
***high impact rain and wind event from late this afternoon into
Thursday***
high pressure will build offshore today as intensifying low
pressure approaches the west. The low will move across tonight.

Clouds will gradually lower and thicken through the day
today. Some MVFR CIGS could precede the rain during the morning
and early afternoon at the nyc metros, then rain and MVFR ifr
conditions should quickly develop after 18z. Rain will be heavy
at times. Rain tapers off after 4-6z but MVFR CIGS around 3000
ft may remain through the remainder of the TAF period.

Se winds will increase today, with gusts at or above 30 kt
likely by late evening tonight. Direction will vary as the low
tracks over and through the area. Winds become westerly behind
the system late tonight, and remain so through thu.

Outlook for 12z Thursday through Sunday
Thursday Possible MVFR with showers. W winds g30-40kt.

Friday Vfr. NW winds g20-25kt.

Saturday Vfr.

Sunday Vfr.

Marine
A strong system will approach the waters on Wednesday with a coastal
low developing across the waters late in the afternoon early
evening. This will bring SCA conditions to the area during the day
on Wednesday with SE gusts 25-30 kt. As the low pulls away Wednesday
night and Thursday westerly gales will bring gusts up to 40 kt.

A gale warning continues Thursday for all waters. Gale force gusts
may continue into Thursday evening on the non ocean waters and into
late Thursday night on ocean waters. With some uncertainty regarding
the diminishing time of the gusts, the gale warning has not been
extended at this time.

Sca wind gusts still forecast to continue through Friday and
into Friday night, mainly for the ocean. Ocean seas are also
expected to be below SCA levels by Friday night. Non-ocean
Friday night expected to remain below sca.

Tranquil conditions forecast for the waters for the weekend into
the beginning of next week.

Hydrology
A significant rainfall of 1-3 inches is likely Wednesday afternoon
into Wednesday night, with localized swaths of 2-4 inches possible.

The bulk of the rainfall is expected in a 6-9 hr period late
Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening.

Urban, poor drainage, and low lying flooding is expected. There is a
low probability of flash flooding along a few of the fast responding
small rivers and streams in NE nj and the lower hudson valley if the
higher rainfall amounts are realized.

Additionally, localized flash flooding will also be an issue for
coastal roads if heaviest rain coincides with the Wed night high
tides.

Tides coastal flooding
The SE fetch across the waters will enable for piling of water
today into tonight. The winds increase today into tonight and
eventually become more westerly late tonight.

Highest astronomical tide is this morning. Some isolated minor
coastal flooding will be possible across the south shore back bays
and western long island sound along the westchester and sw
connecticut shorelines. Water levels this morning are about 1.5
to 2 ft above astronomical. Coastal flood statement issued as a
result.

High tide cycles are between 9am and 12pm across the south shore
back bays and between 12pm and 3pm across the western long island
sound.

For tonight, astronomical tide is lower. However, the surge will be
quite more than this morning so the water levels are expected to be
about 2.5 to 3 ft above astronomical, allowing for widespread minor
coastal flooding for much of long island shorelines as well as
westchester shoreline and SW connecticut shorelines along the
western long island sound. Coastal flood advisories were issued as
a result. Other coastal areas are expected to just touch minor
coastal flood benchmarks and will be more isolated where coastal
flood statements were issued. Battery ny expected to stay below
minor coastal flood benchmark.

High tide cycles tonight run between 9pm to 12am for south shore
bays, and around 11pm to 3am for western LI sound, long island
shorelines, and SE connecticut.

Additionally, if the heaviest rain coincides with the high tide
tonight, more widespread flooding could be experienced than would
normally be expected.

With gusty westerly and mainly offshore flow on Thursday, for the
next high tide cycle for Thursday morning, no coastal flooding is
expected.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off the
air.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... Coastal flood advisory from midnight tonight to 4 am edt
Thursday for ctz009-010.

Wind advisory from 10 pm this evening to 6 pm edt Thursday for
ctz012.

Ny... Coastal flood advisory from midnight tonight to 4 am edt
Thursday for nyz071.

Coastal flood advisory from 10 pm this evening to 4 am edt
Thursday for nyz078>081.

Coastal flood advisory from 9 pm this evening to 1 am edt
Thursday for nyz178-179.

Wind advisory from 10 pm this evening to 6 pm edt Thursday for
nyz079-081.

Nj... Flash flood watch from 4 pm edt this afternoon through late
tonight for njz002-004-006-103>108.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for anz330-
335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

Gale warning from 6 pm this evening to 6 pm edt Thursday for
anz330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

Synopsis... Cb
near term... CB jm
short term... Cb
long term... CB jm
aviation...

marine... CB met
hydrology... CB met dw
tides coastal flooding... Jm
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 6 mi39 min SE 13 G 16 58°F 997.8 hPa50°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 7 mi60 min N 7 G 9.9 43°F 62°F1016.9 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 20 mi60 min 58°F 62°F1016.9 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 34 mi60 min NNW 4.1 G 6 46°F 60°F1018 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 36 mi60 min SE 8.9 G 11 58°F 56°F1017.6 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 39 mi69 min NW 1 48°F 1018 hPa48°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 39 mi60 min NW 1.9 G 2.9 49°F 1018.4 hPa
PRUR1 40 mi60 min 55°F 47°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 42 mi60 min NNW 4.1 G 5.1 47°F 60°F1017.9 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 44 mi60 min E 1.9 G 2.9 46°F 60°F1018.1 hPa
PVDR1 44 mi60 min N 2.9 G 4.1 44°F 1018.3 hPa43°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 49 mi60 min ESE 6 G 8 51°F 1018.1 hPa
FRXM3 49 mi60 min 51°F 46°F

Wind History for New London, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
Last
24hr
N2
G6
N2
N2
G6
N4
N4
G7
N3
NE2
NW3
G6
W5
G11
W3
W2
N3
N4
N3
N5
N4
N4
N6
N5
G8
N6
N8
N7
G11
N5
G11
N6
G10
1 day
ago
N7
N5
N3
N1
SW4
S5
SW5
G9
S9
S4
S4
SW4
SW4
SW2
G5
SW4
NW2
G5
N4
N5
N4
N4
N4
N5
G8
NW2
N8
G11
N5
2 days
ago
N8
G11
N7
N3
G7
N2
NW3
G6
NW3
G7
NE2
--
SW3
G7
SW3
--
W1
N2
N3
N5
N3
N2
N4
G7
N5
N5
N4
N6
N5
N6

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT4 mi58 minN 410.00 miFair43°F39°F89%1016.9 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI9 mi61 minNNE 310.00 miFair44°F41°F89%1017.5 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY18 mi60 minVar 3 mi57°F48°F74%1017.2 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI23 mi58 minESE 1010.00 miFair0°F0°F%1017.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGON

Wind History from GON (wind in knots)
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
Last 24hrN8N8N9N10NW6CalmS8SW10SW8W5CalmN3NE3NE3N3N3N3CalmN3N4N4N4N4N4
1 day agoN6N4NW6W3SW5S5S8S7SW6S7SW10SW7SW7SW8W6NW7NW6N8N9N9N9N6N6NW8
2 days agoN8N11NW8N4NW6NW5N6SW8SW9W4W5CalmCalmN4NW3CalmCalmN3N3CalmCalmCalmN4N3

Tide / Current Tables for Noank, Mystic River entrance, Connecticut
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Noank
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:34 AM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:04 AM EDT     2.86 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 06:14 PM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:55 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:34 PM EDT     2.34 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
2.31.91.410.70.50.50.91.62.32.72.92.72.31.81.30.80.50.30.40.91.522.3

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
The Race
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:26 AM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:29 AM EDT     -2.85 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:29 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 09:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:26 AM EDT     2.81 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 01:34 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:50 PM EDT     -3.18 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:56 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:02 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:53 PM EDT     2.66 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
1.70.6-0.7-2-2.7-2.7-1.9-0.70.71.92.72.71.90.7-0.6-1.9-2.9-3.2-2.6-1.4-0.11.32.32.7

Weather Map
       (on/off)   Help Weather Map
wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (8,2,3,4)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.