Thursday, February20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mystic, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 5:29PM Thursday February 20, 2020 10:48 PM EST (03:48 UTC) Moonrise 6:05AMMoonset 3:33PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 1016 Pm Est Thu Feb 20 2020
Overnight..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night through Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Rain likely.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of rain. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 1016 Pm Est Thu Feb 20 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A large high pres will slowly build east through Fri, passing south of the waters this weekend. The high will continue to move east and away from our waters early next week as low pres over the southern plains slowly lifts northeast. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mystic, CT
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location: 41.34, -71.97     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 210251 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 951 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure over the Central States will be in control through Friday. The high pressure settles south of the area Friday night into much of the weekend and then offshore Sunday night. A frontal system approaches early next week with the passage of a weak low near the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. Another frontal system approaches Wednesday and moves near the region Wednesday night into Thursday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. The forecast overall is on track, with minor adjustments made to the temperatures and dew points, and winds/gusts.

A middle and upper level trough axis moves across the Tri State overnight. The approaching trough axis will push the strong upper level jet streak offshore tonight. This will effectively take the middle and upper level moisture with it with clearing skies continuing from north to south overnight.

A reinforcing shot of cold air moves in tonight once the trough axis swings across. Cold and dry advection take place overnight under a northerly flow, which may increase winds a bit especially near the coast. A few gusts to 25 mph cannot be ruled out. Temperatures will fall well into the teens for most locations, with the NYC Metro falling to around 20 degrees. Wind chills will be in the single digits for most locations early Friday morning.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. A surface and upper ridge axis build over the region on Friday. The atmosphere is dry from the surface to the upper levels with strong subsidence from the ridging. Dry and chilly conditions are expected on Friday with temperatures ranging from around 30 degrees inland to the middle 30s near the coast, 5 to 10 degrees below normal for this time of year.

Clear skies continue Friday night with the ridge axis shifting offshore and the core of the surface high building to our south. Winds will shift to a W-SW direction around the high pressure, beginning the process of moderating temperatures. Have gone on the warmer side of guidance with lows Friday night due to the developing southwest flow. Outlying locations stand the best chance at radiational cooling and temperatures.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Looking at 250mb wind speed, the local region for the weekend will be in between northern and southern branches of the upper level jet. The jet bends more early next week with more SW meridional component flow developing and traversing the local area.

Left front quad of upper level jet moves in early Tuesday and whole upper level jet amplifies and strengthens Tuesday night into Wednesday with the local region again being in left front quad of a strong jet streak. The jet streak will still be over the area Wednesday night into early Thursday and then the jet streak shifts east of the region for the remainder of Thursday.

Mid level pattern exhibits quasi-zonal flow for the weekend with more amplified increasing meridional flow for much of next week.

At the surface, high pressure will be anchored in the Southeast US for Saturday through Sunday and then will move eastward off the Southeast into the Atlantic Ocean Sunday night. Dry weather is expected through the weekend.

A more unsettled weather pattern develops next week because of the more active jet and its close proximity to the region. One low pressure system will be making its way towards the region Monday into Monday night. The parent low of the system tracks well west and weakens with another small low that will be moving nearby Tuesday into Tuesday night. There will be some shortwave positive vorticity advection in the mid levels Tuesday. Synoptic pattern keeps the region warmer so this upcoming precipitation event will be in the form of rain. The rain Tuesday into Tuesday night will be mainly light to moderate.

For Wednesday, the region gets a brief lull in rain with the region being in between low pressure systems. This next one will be moving in from the south and west Wednesday night into Thursday and could potentially be a stronger system but with a track of the low across western parts of the region, mainly rain is expected once again with a chance of a wintry mix across the interior. A lot of uncertainty with this second system as it is about a week ahead in time so models may very well fluctuate from run to run with its depiction of the strength, position and track of the parent low associated with the system.

Temperatures overall through much of the long term are forecast to be several degrees above normal.

AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. High pressure remains across the terminals through the forecast period with VFR conditions.

Winds generally NW-N 10-14 kt, with gusts up to 20 kt into early Friday morning. Gusts may be more occasional than frequent overnight. During Friday the winds back W and SW, diminishing to 10 kt or less by the afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. Friday night through Sunday night. VFR. Monday. VFR during the day. A chance of rain with MVFR or lower Monday night. Tuesday. Rain likely with MVFR or lower.

MARINE. No changes at this time.

An increasing pressure gradient on the waters will increase winds through the night. The winds on the ocean waters should come close to 25 kt in gusts. The SCA remains in effect from 05z to 17z Friday. However, the strongest winds look to occur early Friday morning and the advisory may be cancelled sooner than 17z. Air temperatures dropping into the low 20s early Friday morning combined with the stronger winds on the ocean bring a chance for light freezing spray. Otherwise, sub-SCA conditions are forecast through Friday night.

Outside of some marginal SCA gusts on Saturday across the ocean, sub-SCA conditions are expected for the weekend through Tuesday across the waters. SCA seas are possible on the ocean Tuesday night.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic issues are expected through Monday.

Widespread rainfall is forecast Tuesday into Tuesday night with potential for around 1 inch but confidence is low on exact amounts. With rain expected to be spread out over a long period of time, no hydrologic issues are expected. Too much uncertainty to assess any potential issues with the second system next week yet.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Friday for ANZ350-353-355.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 7 mi49 min N 13 G 19 27°F 41°F1030.1 hPa (+0.9)
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 20 mi49 min 30°F 40°F1030.3 hPa (+1.2)
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 34 mi55 min NNW 9.9 G 15 27°F 39°F1030.1 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 36 mi49 min NNW 11 G 15 28°F 35°F1029.7 hPa (+0.6)
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 39 mi64 min N 8.9 27°F 1030 hPa7°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 39 mi49 min N 7 G 16 26°F 1030.5 hPa (+0.7)
PRUR1 40 mi49 min 27°F 4°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 42 mi49 min NW 18 G 22 27°F 39°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 44 mi49 min N 12 G 17 26°F 38°F1030.3 hPa (+0.8)
PVDR1 44 mi49 min NW 9.9 G 13 26°F 1030.4 hPa (+0.7)4°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 49 mi49 min NW 13 G 16 28°F 1029.8 hPa (+0.5)
FRXM3 49 mi55 min 28°F 8°F

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT4 mi1.9 hrsN 1210.00 miA Few Clouds27°F9°F46%1029.7 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI9 mi56 minN 11 G 1610.00 miFair29°F6°F38%1030.1 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY18 mi55 minN 10 G 20 mi30°F10°F45%1029.8 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI23 mi53 minN 13 G 1910.00 miFair27°F10°F51%1029.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGON

Wind History from GON (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Noank, Mystic River entrance, Connecticut
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Noank
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:41 AM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:04 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:36 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:46 AM EST     2.48 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:29 PM EST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:33 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:20 PM EST     1.88 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.10.511.522.42.52.321.510.4-0-00.30.81.21.61.91.81.61.41

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:00 AM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:04 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:05 AM EST     2.54 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:36 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:13 AM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:18 PM EST     -3.10 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 02:33 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:43 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:45 PM EST     2.49 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 09:48 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2.5-2.2-1.3-01.32.22.52.31.60.3-1.2-2.5-3.1-2.9-2.2-1.10.41.72.42.52.11.1-0.3-1.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.