Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Waterford, CT

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry and seasonably warm weather expected today into Monday before hot and humid conditions return Tuesday and Wednesday.

2) Brief minor tidal flooding expected around the times of high tide this evening.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
Canadian high pressure will build southeast into the region tonight through Monday. This will result in dry weather and seasonably warm temperatures with comfortable humidity values.
Heat and humidity will begin to build as an upper ridge builds in from the west Tuesday and especially Wednesday. Highs will be in the 90s both days with heat index values of 95+ degrees possible areawide Tuesday and most likely on Wednesday, although there is some uncertainty in dew points/mixing depth (lower dew points and more mixing could help limit heat index values).
Heat index values may exceed 100 degrees Wednesday afternoon. If the current forecast holds, a Heat Advisory would be needed for Tuesday/Wednesday due to 2 days of apparent temperatures of 95+ degrees. The ridge will begin to break down as an upper trough pushes southeast into the Northeast Thursday into Friday, which will allow the heat and humidity to decrease late in the week.

KEY MESSAGE 2
The combination of high astronomical tides due to the upcoming new moon on July 14 and a minor of push of water toward the coastline in an E/SE flow today will once again bring water levels in some locations to around or just above minor coastal flood benchmarks. The locations that are most susceptible are the more vulnerable locales of coastal Fairfield, southern Nassau/Queens, and tidal areas of NE NJ and Staten Island. A coastal flood statement remains in effect for these locations covering the evening high tide cycle.

The threat may linger longer into early next week as we approach the new moon, however, much of the guidance keeps water levels just below as winds become southerly. This will have to be watched though as we could still skirt near minor flood thresholds. Any flooding at that time would be brief/minor.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
High pressure builds in from the northwest this morning, then moves offshore this afternoon where it will remain into Monday.

VFR.

Winds will become light NE prior to daybreak and then veer to the S/SE late this morning into the afternoon. Speeds at or under 10 kt thru the TAF period.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of wind shifts may vary by 1-2 hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Late Sunday Night: VFR. Light S wind.

Monday: VFR. S-SW flow.

Tuesday-Wednesday: VFR. W-SW gusts 15-20 kt.

Thursday: VFR. W flow.

MARINE
Winds/seas will remain below SCA criteria through today as high pressure begins to build in from the northwest. East/northeast winds may briefly increase to 15G20kt as the high builds in late tonight/early Sunday morning which could allow waves to build to 3-4 ft for a few hours. Light southerly flow is expected on Monday with gusts to 20 knots possible Monday evening into Monday night. The next solid chance of SCA conditions will be Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday as southwest winds increase and ocean seas builds to 4-6 ft, highest east. Gusts may approach 30 kt out east during this time.

Rip Currents: A moderate risk forecast for Sunday with an continued E-W longshore current dominant environment not too much different from that of today, when many beach reports came in moderate with 2-3 ft wind waves, 1-2-ft S-SE swell, and greater than usual tidal fluctuations due to the upcoming new moon on the 14th. The risk could become low Mon morning, but should rebound to moderate in the afternoon as light S flow increases to 10-15 kt in the afternoon, building wind waves to 3 ft.

Rip Current Outlook: There could be a period of high risk spanning late day Tue into part of Wed morning as seas build to 4-6 ft on a SW flow increasing to around 20 kt, and greater than usual tidal fluctuations associated with the upcoming new moon.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.