Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Matamoras, PA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
High pressure will be in control of our weather through the near term forecast resulting in a period of tranquil conditions.

The center of the high continues to track eastward, building out of the Ohio River Valley towards our region. Heading into the daytime hours today, the center of the high will build in right over our region. As a result, a dry and mostly sunny day is expected with temperatures warming into the low 40s for the afternoon. As the center of the high arrives overhead, winds will decrease into the afternoon to around 5-10 mph.

The high then continues its eastward push, moving offshore late this evening into tonight. As a result, some mid and high level clouds from the next approaching system will begin to move into the region by late this afternoon, with mostly cloudy skies by tonight, though conditions remain dry. Lows look to be a few degrees warmer with cloud coverage, mainly mid 20s to low 30s expected. Light and variable winds will lead to little difference between the air and apparent temperatures tonight.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Subtle ridging aloft Saturday night will quickly give way to mid- level height falls as a trough axis shifts eastward through the Great Lakes on Sunday. The trough axis will pass near or just north of the area Sunday night. Subtle height rises will occur through Monday as the trough departs. At the surface, high pressure will quickly depart to the east by Sunday morning as the next storm system approaches from the west. A surface low will track to our north through the day Sunday and into Sunday evening with a trailing cold front passing through Sunday night.

Widespread, but mostly light precipitation will overspread the area on Sunday. Along and especially northwest of I-95, precipitation may start as a rain and snow mix if it begins early enough in the morning, with all snow for the Poconos. As temperatures warm through the day, precipitation should transition to all rain. Some light snow accumulation will be possible for the Poconos, and perhaps down into the I-78 corridor if snow begins early enough in the morning. The Pocono Plateau is forecast to receive around 1" of snowfall, and a brief dusting cannot be ruled out at lower elevations.

Regarding rainfall, amounts will generally be around 0.10-0.25", with isolated areas potentially seeing slightly more or less. The greater amounts look to occur mostly across New Jersey. Highs on Sunday look to be in the mid 30s for the Poconos, the mid- upper 40s for the remainder of our eastern PA counties and much of NJ, and the low-mid 50s across the Delmarva and near the coast. A breezy SSW 10-15 mph wind will develop on Sunday, with gusts near 25 mph at times.

Rain will come to an end across the area Sunday evening from west to east with the passage of the cold front. Lows Sunday night will be in the upper 20s to low 30s. Monday will be dry but chilly, with highs generally in the low to mid 40s (mid to upper 30s north of I-78). For the Poconos, temperatures may remain near to slightly above freezing. Breezy northwesterly wind can be expected behind the front Sunday night into Monday, with gusts to around 30 mph.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Monday night currently appears mostly dry with high pressure over the area beginning to retreat northeastward. Low temperatures should be in the 20s for most. Low pressure will be developing over the southeastern US, and will begin to approach the area by daybreak Tuesday. It currently appears that the low will make its closest approach to the area Tuesday afternoon, and begin departing to the northeast by Tuesday night.

Widespread precipitation is expected with this system. Right now, have chance PoPs moving into portions of the Delmarva and eastern PA during the pre-dawn hours on Tuesday. PoPs are highest Tuesday afternoon and evening, in the 80-90% realm areawide. Precipitation chances should wind down fairly quickly overnight Tuesday night, with the entire region precipitation- free by Wednesday morning.

Regarding the potential for accumulating snowfall: models are in good agreement this afternoon regarding the track of the low and its associated features. With that said, even subtle shifts could have big impacts given it currently appears likely that the rain to snow line will fall somewhere in our forecast area, with accumulating snowfall increasingly likely for some.

In looking at the overall pattern, high pressure looks to retreat northeastward with the approach of the low. This will tend to favor onshore flow and marine influence affecting temperature profiles for most, especially south of I-78.
Initially, snow or a rain and snow mix could be possible as far south as the I-95 corridor, with all snow favored northwest of the fall line, and all rain favored to the southeast of I-95.
Through the day Tuesday, the rain/snow line will likely shift northwest. At the peak of precipitation coverage and intensity, all snow is possible for the Poconos and into adjacent portions of far northwestern NJ, a rain/snow mix will be favored northwest of the fall line, and all rain elsewhere.

It is still too soon to get overly specific with amounts.
DESI/NBM probabilistic guidance maintains a ~50% chance for 1" of snowfall or more, and around 30-40% chance for 2" of snowfall or more for the Lehigh Valley, I-78 corridor, and points northwest. Probability for 1" or more is around 80% for the Poconos, and around 60-70% for 2" or more. These probabilities drop sharply toward the I-95 corridor, which still has about a 10-20% chance of 1" or more of snowfall and near 0% chance for 2" or more. A cold, soaking rainfall is likely elsewhere, including locations south of I-78. High temperatures could vary widely on Monday, with temperatures mostly in the 30s northwest of I-95, the low to mid 40s for most of the coastal plain, but potentially near 50 degrees near the coast where the marine influence is most felt.

After the low departs Tuesday night, dry conditions are expected through Friday. A cold front looks to bring a reinforcing shot of cold air Thursday night into Friday, but for now it looks like precipitation chances will be quite slim.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through 00Z...VFR. SCT mid and high-level clouds. West- northwest wind around 10 kt. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR with increasing mid-level clouds. Light and variable wind. High confidence.

Sunday...VFR to start. Light rain will move in from west to east 15-17Z, with MVFR ceilings accompanying it. Visibility restrictions are possible as well at times. South-southwest wind 10-15 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday night...Restrictions likely in periods of rain and low clouds. Gusty SSW winds. Rain will clear the area Sunday evening, but low clouds could linger through most of the night.
Gusty WNW winds at night.

Monday through Monday night...Primarily VFR. Slight chance (20%) of sub-VFR conditions in rain or snow late Monday night.

Tuesday through Tuesday night...Restrictions expected in low clouds and periods of rain/snow for the northwestern terminals, and in rain elsewhere. Conditions should improve by late Tuesday night.

Wednesday...VFR. No significant weather.

MARINE
The Small Craft Advisory has been extended through 10 AM this morning for all Atlantic Ocean coastal waters as westerly winds continue to gust up to 25 knots with seas around 3-5 feet. A few gusts up to 35 knots remain possible this morning for coastal waters north of Manasquan Inlet off the coast of New Jersey. Winds have decreased sufficiently along the Delaware Bay so the SCA for the Bay will be allowed to expire though a few gusts of 20-25 knots remain possible this morning.

Winds will continue to decrease into the daytime hours today so following the end of the current SCA, conditions should be sub- SCA criteria through tonight. Winds 10-15 knots with a few gusts up to 20 knots, out of the west during the day today, briefly becoming light and variable this evening, then turning southerly and increasing once again tonight. Seas decreasing to 1-3 feet.

Outlook...

Sunday through Monday...SCA conditions are expected beginning Sunday with south winds increasing to 20-25 kt, with gusts near 30 kt. Winds will shift to northwest Sunday night, but remain elevated. Winds should diminish by Monday afternoon. Seas 4-6 feet.

Monday night...No marine hazards anticipated with wind below 25 kt and seas below 5 feet.

Tuesday through Wednesday...SCA conditions likely with east winds increasing to near 25-30 kt and then becoming northwest Tuesday night into Wednesday. Winds look to diminish Wednesday afternoon. Seas 5-7 feet, also diminishing Wednesday afternoon.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.