Orangeville, OH Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Orangeville, OH

June 21, 2024 11:30 PM EDT (03:30 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:47 AM   Sunset 8:59 PM
Moonrise 8:19 PM   Moonset 3:53 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LEZ148 Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh-conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 936 Am Edt Fri Jun 21 2024

This afternoon - Northwest winds less than 10 knots becoming west. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.

Tonight - West winds less than 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.

Saturday - South winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.

Saturday night - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Sunday through Tuesday.
the water temperature off toledo is 73 degrees, off cleveland 66 degrees, and off erie 69 degrees.

LEZ100
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Orangeville, OH
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Area Discussion for - Pittsburgh, PA
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FXUS61 KPBZ 220304 AAA AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1104 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

SYNOPSIS
A dangerous heat wave will impact the region into the weekend.
A Heat Advisory and Excessive Heat Warning are in effect through Saturday. Daily thunderstorms may pose a damaging wind threat through the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dangerous heat continues through Saturday with little relief at night.
- Excessive Heat Warning and Heat Advisory remain in effect through Saturday.
- Showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon, a few of which could become strong.
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Update...
Convection has ended with the loss of daytime heating and diurnal instability. Made a few adjustments to the forecast to remove pops and adjust sky cover based on the latest radar and satellite data.

Previous discussion...
A rain-free forecast will remain through the overnight hours.
Temperatures continue to run warm tonight, as has been the case all week, with lows remaining in the upper 60s to low 70s.

More of the same is anticipated on Saturday as temperatures climb back into the low 90s and isolated showers and storms develop by the late morning or afternoon. Similar to today, those storms will also carry a low-end threat for damaging winds and hail.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Relief from the heat favored with a passing trough over the Great Lakes Sunday into Monday.
- Cold front will return precipitation chances as well as a severe potential Sunday into Sunday night.
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Warm overnight temperatures are expected once again Saturday night, with the NBM actually suggesting it may be the warmest night of the past week, at least for eastern OH and areas within the Ohio River valley in western PA and the northern WV panhandle. Latest probabilities for low temperatures to remain above 70F are >90% in those areas, as well as a 30-50% chance of lows remaining 75F or higher. The good news is Saturday night should be the final night with overnight temps this warm. By Sunday, the pattern that has plagued us all week finally begins to shift as the ridge over the region flattens and pushes south, giving way to zonal flow and opening the door for weak troughing to develop as low pressure moves into southern Ontario.

This pattern shift will allow the first solid cold front in quite awhile to drop southeast across the Great Lakes and Upper OH Valley. Current timing has the cold front approaching the area Sunday evening, allowing for plenty of heating and destabilization to occur ahead of it during the afternoon.
Convective models do suggest a morning wave of showers moving through the area, perhaps associated with a pre-frontal trough, that may serve to disrupt or delay heating. However, given how efficient heating can be this time of year, it wouldn't take much sunshine to develop at least marginal instability ahead of the front. NBM probabilities for 1000 J/kg SBCAPE continue to run around 70-90% generally near and west/northwest of Pittsburgh, with lower (40-60%) probabilities farther southeast.

More concerning are model-derived soundings and hodographs which suggest a fair amount of instability and wind shear being packed in the sfc-3km layer due to steep low-level lapse rates and a 40-50 knot 850mb jet that overspreads the area ahead of the front. This latter feature, when coupled with more backed surface winds and an almost due-east mature storm motion, would lead to a decent amount of streamwise vorticity ingest for any storms that are able to organize and deviate from the mean flow.

All of the above factors combined, there is growing concern regarding severe weather potential on Sunday (particularly damaging winds and possibly a tornado or two). We will need to keep a close eye on how the environment evolves. Possible complications include morning convection limiting daytime instability and forcing being focused along the front leading to a linear storm mode. At this time, the Storm Prediction Center has our entire area highlighted under a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe weather.

The front moves through Sunday night but a low chance for showers and storms will continue behind the front mainly over the ridges to the east as weak upslope flow and a lingering post-frontal trough act to locally maintain ascent in those areas.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Relief from the heat favored with a passing trough over the Great Lakes Sunday into Monday.
- A weaker ridge builds in Monday night leading to drier and quieter weather on Tuesday.
- Active weather returns Wednesday and Thursday.
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There is a low chance for convection over the ridges to linger into Monday afternoon due to a post-frontal trough that will be slow to depart, however severe weather currently appears unlikely. A weak ridge briefly builds over the area Monday night, leading to quiet weather Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Temperatures are expected to rise into the upper 80s to lower 90s again on Tuesday, but early ensemble indications suggest this heat won't be as oppressive as the past week. A series of weak shortwave troughs then pass over the area through midweek, bringing showers and thunderstorms back to the forecast Wednesday and Thursday before high pressure builds back in again and dries us out Friday into the following weekend.

AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR is expected for the majority of the TAF period at most airports. The exception is FKL, MGW and HLG, where they will likely see some early morning MVFR fog.

A weak surface boundary dropping south along with 1000-2000 j/kg of CAPE will trigger storms this afternoon. Wind flow aloft is light, though dry mid level air will create a damaging wind threat with any storm that becomes organized. The timing, coverage and location are still uncertain, precluding more than a VCTS inclusion in the TAFs at this time.

Storms and the cu layer should dissipate this evening with the loss of heating.

Outlook
Mainly VFR is expected through Saturday night, outside of isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms on Saturday.
Restrictions are likely Sunday, along with showers and thunderstorms, as a cold front crosses the region. VFR is then expected again Sunday night through Tuesday under high pressure.

CLIMATE
The area has the potential to break various heat-related records.

There is low probability that climate sites approach the highest temperatures recorded in the 21st century:

Pittsburgh, PA: 98F (7/7/2012)
Wheeling, WV: 98F (7/7/2012)
Morgantown, WV: 101F (7/7/2012)
New Philadelphia, OH: 101F (7/7/2012)
Zanesville, OH: 101F (7/7/2012)
DuBois, PA: 101F (7/22/2011)

There is a modest probability many June all-time temperature records may be at stake:

PIT: 98F (1988)
HLG: 100F (1933)
MGW: 99F (1893)
PHD: 99F (1988)
ZZV: 101F (1988,1934)
DUJ: 92F (1969) *RECORD TIED ON 6/18/24*

Daily high maximum (left) and high minimum (right) temperature records are at stake for:

Friday, June 21st Pittsburgh, PA: 95F (1933) 73F (1934)
Wheeling, WV: 99F (1933) 69F (2016)
Morgantown, WV: 95F (1953) 72F (1988)
New Philadelphia, OH: 94F (1994) 72F (2016)
Zanesville, OH: 97F (1988) 72F (1997)
DuBois, PA: 89F (1991) 68F (1988)

Saturday, June 22nd Pittsburgh, PA: 98F (1988) 75F (1988)
Wheeling, WV: 95F (1923) 72F (2011)
Morgantown, WV: 96F (1923,1988)73F (1988)
New Philadelphia, OH: 97F (1988) 71F (1997)
Zanesville, OH: 99F (1988) 71F (1997)
DuBois, PA: 91F (2022) 68F (2022)

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for PAZ007>009-013-015- 016-022-031-074-076>078.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Saturday for PAZ014-020- 021-029-073-075.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for OHZ039>041-048>050- 057>059-068-069.
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for WVZ001>004-012-021- 509>511.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
45208 41 mi20 minNE 3.9G3.9 78°F 76°F0 ft30.0674°F
ASBO1 41 mi30 minNE 1.9G2.9
CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH 42 mi30 min0G1
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 43 mi60 min0G1.9


Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KYNG YOUNGSTOWNWARREN RGNL,OH 14 sm39 mincalm10 smPartly Cloudy73°F70°F89%30.14
KGKJ PORT MEADVILLE,PA 22 sm37 minSSW 0310 smClear75°F70°F83%30.15
KUCP NEW CASTLE MUNI,PA 24 sm34 mincalm10 smClear72°F72°F100%30.15
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Wind History graph: YNG
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Pittsburgh, PA,




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