Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Gales Ferry, CT

KEY MESSAGES
1) A noticeable warm up begins today.

2) The warm up becomes more widespread across the region into mid week with the warmth peaking Wednesday into Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
A warm front pushes through during the first half of today with unsettled conditions remaining primarily north of the region, although some clouds hang around until midday. A return flow out of the SW sets up this afternoon with gusty winds primarily out of the SW, with hybrid sea breeze setting up with more of a pure southerly component to the flow for coastal sections, especially further east.
This sets up a wide range in temperatures this afternoon with upper 50s for daytime maxes today for far eastern coastal sections, with upper 70s to around 80 closer to and west of the NYC metro.
Northwestern LI and western portions of southern CT will likely get well into the 70s today beginning a significant warm up for the region.


KEY MESSAGE 2
500 mb height will remain fairly steady state, with 570dm+ likely to remain in place through Thursday. The only question is how much of a southerly component to the sfc winds will take place and for how much of the region. For Tuesday and Wednesday a W to WSW wind should prevail through midday across the entire region. This will allow temperatures to climb quickly both days, even for most coastal sections. Then later during the afternoon hours a sea breeze should develop in response to the rapid warming and the winds at the sfc will become more southerly, and therefore temperatures should fall later in the day for coastal sections, but not before temperatures climb well above normal. Daytime maxes by Wednesday likely get into the upper 80s and maybe even touching 90 in the warmest locations across metro NE NJ. This is supported by 850 mb temperature forecast of 15-16 C. On a side note, the chance of showers and any convection appear to be low through mid week. Some CAM guidance is suggestive of a chance / slight chance of showers and a few thunderstorms late Tuesday into Tuesday evening. However, the best forcing looks to remain north of the region, thus the chances of convection and any impactful thunderstorm activity appear to be rather low at this time.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
High pressure will continue to slide offshore overnight while a warm front passes to the north. Low pressure will pass to the north later today.

VFR overnight. A period of MVFR cigs appears likely for at least a couple hours in the morning at the NYC metros/KHPN between 12Z-15Z, for a longer period farther east, 11Z-16Z at KBDR and 13Z-17Z at KISP. KGON should see prevailing MVFR cigs beginning around 10Z, possibly becoming IFR from 15Z-18Z.

LLWS expected at KISP/KGON before 13Z with SW winds 40-45 kt at FL020.

Light SE-S winds overnight should become SW 10-15 kt with gusts 20- 25 kt early, then WSW 15-20 kt with gusts 25-40 kt late. Peak winds mid to late afternoon could reach 25 kt with gusts 30-35 kt at KEWR/KLGA/KJFK.

Winds should diminish after 00Z Tue.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Increasing confidence in timing of MVFR cigs.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Late tonight: VFR.

Tuesday through Friday: Mainly VFR but with chance of afternoon/evening showers/tstms each day, mainly NW of the NYC metros, with brief flight cat reduction to MVFR. SW winds could gusts 15-20kt each afternoon Tue-Thu as well.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Small craft conditions are expected across all waters today with a gusty WSW to SW flow regime. Later tonight small craft conditions subside, first for the non-ocean waters during the evening, then later at night across the western ocean. By Tuesday AM sub advisory conditions will prevail across all waters. By late in the afternoon and early evening marginal small craft conditions are expected for the ocean and the south shore bays of LI, otherwise sub advisory conditions are expected. Marginal small craft conditions are expected to develop once again for the same locations late Wednesday and late Thursday in association with sea breeze development and a diurnal increase in southerly flow. Sub advisory conditions are anticipated Friday with ocean seas primarily around 3 ft.

CLIMATE
Daily record high temperatures that could be reached:

Wed April 15: KEWR: 88/1960 KBDR: 81/1960 KNYC: 87/1941 KLGA: 86/1941 KJFK: 80/2006 KISP: 78/2024

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ332-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ355.