Sunrise 6:10 AM   Sunset 8:35 PM Moonrise 6:41 AM   Moonset 11:05 PM

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LEZ146 Expires:202405100215;;923101 Fzus51 Kcle 091944 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 344 pm edt Thu may 9 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez144>146-100215- the islands to vermilion oh-vermilion to avon point oh- avon point to willowick oh- 344 pm edt Thu may 9 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday morning - .
Tonight - Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots becoming north and diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers early, then a slight chance of showers late this evening. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet. Friday - North winds 5 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Friday night - Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Saturday - South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Sunday through Tuesday.
the water temperature off toledo is 63 degrees, off cleveland 49 degrees, and off erie 55 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 100731 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 331 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

SYNOPSIS
A surface trough over the region today will drift to the eastern Great Lakes by tonight. Low pressure moves across Ontario into New York State on Saturday as a cold front crosses the region from west to east. High pressure briefly builds over Ohio on Sunday before the next weakening cold front moves southward over the region by Monday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Surface low pressure has moved east of the region but we still have an upper level trough that needs to pass overhead through the day. So expect some weak lift to persist across the region through the morning with light rain/sprinkles expected. The rain ends from west to east late this morning into the afternoon with it persisting the longest across NW PA. It then looks to be dry tonight with cloud cover decreasing.

It will remain cool today with highs ranging from the mid 50's across the east to the mid 60's across NW OH. The decrease in the cloud cover and light winds tonight should allow temperatures to range from the upper 30's to upper 40's. We will need to monitor for some patchy frost across inland NE OH into inland NW PA. At this point it does not look widespread enough to issue a frost advisory.

After a brief period of high pressure over the region Friday night it looks like we will get another fast moving storm system to impact the area. This storm system will be moving through the northwesterly flow with its cold pool of air moving overhead.
This should lead to the development of a few thunderstorms along and ahead of a cold front that sweeps west to east across the CWA through Saturday evening. The cold air aloft may end up contributing to hail to develop within the best updrafts. It does NOT appear there will be enough instability in the atmosphere to grow this hail to severe levels. Highs Saturday should range from the mid 50's across NW PA to the lower 60's across NW OH.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
By Saturday night, the aforementioned low pressure system will shift to be centered over the eastern Great Lakes region. This low will continue to drift east overnight as a progressive upper level trough over the Great Lakes brings additional synoptic support to the area.
This synoptic support coupled with a relatively cool 850-mb flow of 2-4C across Lake Erie should allow for continued rain showers over far NE OH and NW PA through Sunday morning. All showers should end by late Sunday morning as a nose of high pressure pushes north of the area. Late Sunday into Monday, a boundary will become near stationary north of the area which will act as a focus for additional shower development, keeping much of the area dry into Monday morning. In the meantime, the area will linger in the warm sector of the system, allowing for southwest winds to usher in warmer and more moist air over the area. Showers are expected to become more widespread Monday afternoon as stalled boundary begins to move towards the area as a cold front. Initial forcing will be primarily diurnal instability, but as the front moves east late Monday into Tuesday, frontogenesis coupled with upper level support from a jet stream will result in widespread shower development. With the better forcing, cannot rule out thunder late Monday into early Tuesday. General QPF for late Monday through the overnight hours should remain below 0.2", but higher totals are expected in the long term period.

Saturday night lows will remain quite chilly with temperatures dropping into the low to mid 40s. By Sunday night, temperatures will be a mid more mild only dropping into the upper 40s to mid 50s as WAA becomes established across the area. High temperatures will follow a similar trend with highs on Sunday reaching into the mid 60s to low 70s, but will then warm on Monday to reach into the low to mid 70s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The long term period looks to remain fairly active as another system is expected to move east across the Ohio River Valley through Wednesday night. Models diverge in the exact placement of this low, so opted to maintain slight chance PoPs for much of the area, but any northerly shift in the track will likely result in more widespread showers with greater QPF associated with it. These showers will primarily be supported by an upper level shortwave trough, although models do suggest areas of frontogenetic and isentropic lift. By Thursday, all long range models, including the GFS and ECMWF, have a high pressure system building over the Great Lakes region as an upper level ridge pushes east. Opted to decrease PoPs for the end of the period given the consistency in models, but any shift in timing of the low pressure midweek may result in showers continuing through the end of the period. Highs throughout the period will gradually warm from being in the upper 60s on Tuesday to being in the mid 70s by Thursday. Overnight lows will generally linger in the mid 50s through the period.

AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/
A few area of light rain or sprinkles remain across the region as we wait for an upper level trough to cross the region through the day. VFR cloud covers the entire region but do think there could be some patchy MVFR ceilings where the light rain/sprinkles are most persistent. Otherwise drier air will spread across the region from west to east through the afternoon with ceilings gradually dissipating.

Northerly winds of 5-10 knots may become gusty for a few hours through early afternoon. Gusty may reach 20 knots. The winds then decrease by evening as the winds shift to the northwest and eventually to the southwest overnight.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Saturday into Saturday night. Non-VFR possible on Tuesday in rain showers.

MARINE
High pressure has gradually begun to push south over the area as a low pressure system gradually departs off the Mid-Atlantic Coast today. This has allowed winds to become north-northeasterly across Lake Erie and weaken to 5-10 knots. As a result, the Small Craft Advisory has been cancelled this morning. Winds will remain light into Saturday before shifting to be southwesterly at 15-20 knots as another low pressure system tracks across the Lake Erie Basin. As the center of the low pushes east, winds will become northwesterly, remaining at 15-20 knots for the central and western basins, but diminishing to 10-15 knots for the eastern basin through much of Saturday night. This will be the next period to keep an eye for the potential of additional marine headlines. High pressure returns on Sunday and allows all winds to weaken from the northwest at 5-10 knots. As another system moves into the area, winds will again become established from the south-southwest, increasing to 10-15 knots late Sunday into Monday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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