NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Quiet weather is expected through Sunday as surface high pressure and ridging aloft persist across the region. Weak MSLP gradients will allow a lake breeze to develop during the afternoon hours today and on Sunday. Only minor change made to the forecast was to incorporate some lower dew point guidance in the afternoon hours for today and Sunday as a dry air mass will exist atop a weak low-level inversion.

Seasonable highs in the mid-80s are expected today, while above-average temperatures in the lower 90s will return by Sunday as the ridge continues to amplify. Not anticipating any smoke/haze concerns from the wildfires out west (US and Canada)
as the upper ridge will direct these plumes well to the north.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
The nice and quiet weather that we are having this weekend will change starting late Sunday night into Monday. And out weather pattern will become more unsettled and also bring some much needed rainfall across the area for several days next week. The Omega block that was over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley over the past couple days will break down Sunday night. A weak, broad upper trough will move from the Midwest into our region Monday. This trough will be slow to move through our region and will linger through the middle of next week. Slight POPs will start to show up in the forecast Sunday night over northwest Ohio. Scattered showers and a few storms will become more likely for much of northern Ohio on Monday. For far NEOH and NWPA, those areas will have lower POPs in the slight to chance range. Alot of the convection that develops during the daytime heating on Monday will decrease during the late evening and overnight hours.

The trough will become a little strong and a sharper axis that will pivot over our area late Tuesday and Tuesday night. This time period will have the highest POPs 60 to 70 percent for showers and general thunderstorms as well as the better potential for most if not all the area to see at least some measurable rainfall. The latest trends for the average QPF over those couple of days will be 0.50" to 1.0" but there may be some isolated higher amounts for few lucky spots if they see more of the heavier downpours from any passing convection. Regard severe weather potential and the thermodynamics Monday and Tuesday, it does not appear to be all that much. There could be an isolated stronger storm with gusty winds but at this we are not expecting any organized severe convection. High temperatures will be very warm outside of any rain showers, in the middle to upper 80s and somewhat humid conditions too.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The end of next week into the start of next weekend will favor a northwest flow aloft with ridge of high pressure anchored somewhere over the central CONUS. The model guidance is hinting at some MCS type activity setting up somewhere over the Midwest, lower Great Lakes, and maybe the Ohio Valley. The is a signal in the model output and data but low confidence on location, timing, etc. It will be the next potential impactful weather system to maybe monitor future trends. We will broad brush some daily and night POPs 20 to 35 percent through the end of next week into the weekend. High temperatures will continue to be slightly above average in the middle 80s to lower 90s.

AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/
VFR across the TAF sites this morning with VFR to persist through the TAF period as periodic high cirrus spread across the area. Winds are primarily light and variable this morning.
Winds will favor an east to southeast direction by late morning and early afternoon, around 5 knots. Stronger north to northeast flow of around 10 knots will be found at CLE/ERI resulting from a lake breeze.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday.

MARINE
High pressure over the Great Lakes and Northeastern U.S. will continue to bring relatively quiet marine weather conditions this weekend. There will be weak wind shifts this morning through Sunday afternoon due to the mesoscale effects of a night time land breeze and afternoon lake breezes this weekend. For today, there will be a northeast flow 10-15 knots and waves 1-3 feet, but still not expecting any headlines at this time. That high pressure system will drift off the East Coast late Sunday and a south-southwest flow of 5-10 knots will become established across Lake Erie through Tuesday night. Late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning, a surface trough or weak cold front will track across the lake. The low level flow and surface winds may become light and variable 5 to 10 knots by the middle of next week. There will be an increase of scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout next week starting on Monday which may result in locally higher winds and waves.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.