Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cornwall-on-Hudson, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
No significant changes from the previous update. Have extended the mention of sct flurries for parts of the Lower Hudson Valley and Southern CT through 18z.

Sharply colder today while remaining very gusty. The local effects from a deepening sub 970 mb low continue to be felt as the system occludes and meanders over far southeastern Canada.
The result is the continuation of strong, locally damaging, winds across the region. CAA with the flow is ushering in a sharply colder air mass relative to yesterday as well.
Afternoon highs today climb little from where they started near daybreak, topping out within a few degrees of the freezing mark. With the winds, expect wind chill values to remain persistently in the 20s thru the day, if not lower.

Soundings indicate a well mixed boundary layer, mixing to and above 850 mb much of the day. Winds toward the top of this layer are progged near 50 kt, which gives an idea of peak gust potential, with more frequent gusts around 40 kt likely thru the afternoon. Thus, the Wind Advisory remains in effect regionwide until 6 PM this evening. Still can't rule out isolated gusts to 50kt today.

Winds should begin to ease just a bit this evening,though the gusty west flow continues overnight as strong high pressure slowly builds east from the Central US. Remaining dry tonight with temps falling back into the teens and 20s. Wind chills bottom out late tonight into the single digits.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Flow remains strong Tuesday as high pressure builds in from the west.

With the cold air mass entrenched, temperature anomalies run 10 to 15 degrees below normal. After a frigid start with morning temps largely in the teens and wind chills near zero sets up an afternoon likely a few degrees colder than the previous day, with highs generally in the mid to upper 20s and wind chills in the teens.

Dry conditions prevail with the building high under a mix of mid level clouds and sunshine. WNW gusts 30 to 35 mph are expected to persist thru the afternoon, gradually subsiding in the evening and overnight.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Key Points...

* Lowering chances of a significant winter storm in the Wed night and Thursday timeframe.

* Remaining cold with temperatures running 5 to 10 degrees below normal.

A 1050+ mb Arctic high continues to build in from the west midweek, keeping the region dry to start the period. Though as a baroclinic zone sets up over the South, low pressure develops and deepens as shortwave energy swings through midweek. This low is expected to trek east and eject off the Southeast coast Wednesday night, passing to the south and east of the region into Thursday, before exiting well out to sea.

Global guidance continues to trend farther south and east with this system, lessening the potential of a significant snowfall locally. While the threat has not entirely diminished, 00Z GEFS run offers just 10% of members with a warning level (6 in+) snow at KISP, and about half the members with at least an inch of snow, lessening further going north and west. Tapered PoPs back a bit in this period to align with forecast trend, but not shutting the door entirely should the expected track shift a bit closer over the next 48 to 72 hours.

The low passes out to sea regardless by late Thursday, and high pressure returns once again from the west. This high remains west of the area through much of the weekend, providing dry but cold conditions.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Deep low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes remains nearly stationary, and begins to weaken Tuesday, as strong high pressure gradually builds from the west.

BKN VFR ceilings through this afternoon, as strong and gusty west winds persist. An occasional gust to near 50 kt remains possible early this afternoon. Winds and gusts diminish this evening, remaining west around 20 kt gusting 25 to 30 kt. West winds and gusts increase during the day Tuesday, gusting 30 to 35 kt.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected.

Isolated gusts up to 50 kt possible early this afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Tuesday afternoon: VFR. W winds G30 to 35 kt.

Wednesday: VFR.

Thursday: Mainly VFR. A chance of snow during the afternoon and into the evening with MVFR, possibly IFR especially east of the New York City terminals.

Friday: VFR. NW winds G20 to 25 kt.

Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Strong winds associated with deep low pressure centered over the Canadian Maritimes persists in the near term.

For the ocean waters, Storm Warning remains in effect for the ocean waters thru this afternoon. Thereafter, gales continue through at least this evening, if not the overnight. Ocean seas 10 to 14 ft today gradually lower into this evening, but remaining above 5 ft thru Tuesday night.

For non ocean waters, Gale Warning on the through this evening, and through into early Tuesday morning for the eastern Long Island Sound, and the eastern Long Island bays. Seas on the Sound 5 to 7 ft today, and up to 5 ft possible on Tuesday before lowering.

With cold air moving in, and the combination of strong winds and high seas, there is also a chance of freezing spray late tonight through Tuesday night. At this time, ice accretion is expected to remain below Advisory criteria, but will continue to monitor conditions should one be needed.

Wind gusts up to 25 kt likely continue on all waters into Tuesday night before subsiding into early Wednesday, bringing a return of sub SCA conditions that could persist into late week depending on the track and strength of offshore low pressure Thursday.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts are expected through this week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A long duration period of strong offshore westerly flow may cause a few spots to experience low water conditions around the times of low tide into Tuesday evening, mainly along Raritan Bay, the north shore of Nassau and western Suffolk counties, and possibly the bays of Long Island. Water levels are largely expected to remain less than 2 ft below MLLW however, and a Low Water Advisory appears less likely.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for NYZ067>075- 078>081-176>179.
NJ...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for NJZ002-004-006- 103>108.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340- 345.
Low Water Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ335-340.
Storm Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ350-353-355.