Noxen, PA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Noxen, PA

June 23, 2024 1:54 AM EDT (05:54 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:29 AM   Sunset 8:42 PM
Moonrise 9:43 PM   Moonset 5:40 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Noxen, PA
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Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 222339 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 739 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

SYNOPSIS
Hot and humid conditions will continue through the weekend, with scattered thunderstorms this evening and again on Sunday, as a cold front sweeps through the area. Some stronger storms may produce damaging winds, hail and torrential rainfall. Heat and humidity will subside Monday and Tuesday behind the front.
Showers and thunderstorms look to return on Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

730 PM Update...

As expected scattered severe thunderstorms have developed over the region as an upper level shortwave pushed into the area this evening. The environment is very unstable, with SBCAPE values over 2200 J/Kg and increasing effective layer shear up to 40 kts on the SPC mesoanalysis. This is leading to supercell composite indices of 2-4. A few storms are tapping into this favorable environment, producing destructive wind and hail. This severe storm activity should begin to wind down by the late evening hours.

120 PM update...

Showers and thunderstorms are developing across the region with SPC mesoanalysis showing good amounts of Mixed Layer CAPE above 1500 for much of the area. A surface boundary is dropping south through CNY with stable air behind the boundary. There will likely be some additional destabilization north of the boundary as there is still plenty of time for reheating. With 25 to 35 knots of 0-6 km shear this afternoon, there is a threat for damaging winds and hail with any of the stronger storms.

Tonight there is a surface low moving through the Great Lakes region with our area in the warm sector. Stronger boundary layer winds should limit fog development but some of the deeper river valleys may still get fog to develop by sunrise. The warm front may dip a bit south tonight with the I-90 corridor possibly getting another round of late night and early morning convection.

Tomorrow will be another hot day but as the surface low moves east through the NY/CAN border, a cold front will drop through the region triggering another round of thunderstorms. With the low to the north, shear will be better tomorrow (30kt to 40kt 0-6 km shear) in the warm sector and the 12Z models were a little slower with the timing of the front so there would be more time for destabilization across the Southern Tier and southward. CNY may still have morning convection that will limit the amount of sun as well as create cold pools that inhibit much destabilization. Forecast soundings have similar amounts of CAPE as we have had the past few days but better turning with height so all severe threats are possible tomorrow.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A fairly potent mid level disturbance will move southeast into the area Monday as a cold front continues to push well east of our region. This will bring a welcome relief from the excessive heat.
However, enough lift and moisture looks present for additional scattered showers focused with peak heating in the afternoon.
Clouds look to be fairly persistent as well keeping highs just under 80 for most of the region. Model soundings also show a fair amount of wind being transported to the surface as well with gusts of 20 mph possible.

High pressure is then expected to build back into the region by Tuesday. Potentially chilly start with clearing by Tuesday morning but highs should rebound into the 80's given plenty of sun. A muggier night Tuesday night as should already switch to a warm and moist southwesterly flow.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The next cold front continues to trend faster passing through the region later Wednesday into early Thursday. Modeled boundary layer temperatures indicate highs in some areas could hit 90 again. However, some uncertainity is present given clouds and the likely development of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front. Heat index values in portions of central New York could once again get close to 95.

Any strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and night will depend on the timing of the front. Currently, 30-40 knots of 0-6KM shear along with 1,000-1,500 J/KG CAPE is modeled.
These values would be enough to allow some thunderstorms to produce gusty winds. This front looks fairly potent bringing in a refreshing shot of cooler air Thursday and Friday with highs back down into the 70's and 80's. Yet another cold front Saturday with slightly warmer temperatures ahead of it.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Scattered thunderstorms are across the region this evening, through around 03z. The storms are impacting the BGM terminal over the next 1-2 hours. A few thunderstorms may approach SYR and AVP between now and 03z, but confidence was lower...will amend tafs if probability of t'storms increases here.

Some fog may develop at ELM and that is dependent on whether or not there is rain this afternoon at and around the terminal.
Also, mid and high level clouds are more abundant so this looks to limit fog tonight.

Tomorrow will be another day with showers and thunderstorms developing. These storms look to be on the stronger side with strong wind gusts and hail possible starting in the late morning into early afternoon. Storms will likely be after 18Z so, included prob30 groups at all taf sites, except AVP.

Outlook...

Sunday evening into Monday Morning...Widespread showers and thunderstorms Sunday with associated restrictions, mainly to visibility. Lingering restrictions possible in showers early Monday.

Monday afternoon through Wednesday...VFR conditions likely.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for PAZ038>040-043-044-047- 048-072.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ022-023-025.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for NYZ024-055-056-062.
Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ062.
Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Sunday for NYZ062.




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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KAVP WILKESBARRE/SCRANTON INTL,PA 17 sm26 mincalm7 smClear Thunderstorm in Vicinity 73°F70°F89%29.88
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Binghamton, NY,




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