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FXUS61 KBGM 022324 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 724 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
Conditions will be quiet and temperatures will trend warmer through mid week. Near record highs are expected. Late this week, a cold front will bring much cooler conditions and the next chance for showers Friday and Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
630 PM Update...

Not much has changed with this update outside of some minor sky cover tweaks. The latest obs were blended in over the next few hours, otherwise, the forecast remains on track this evening with high pressure overhead. Previous discussion below.

215 PM Update...

High pressure will be in control this period, giving us quiet weather conditions. Overnight, temperatures will fall into the 50s. Clear skies and light winds will be favorable for fog to develop, especially in the lower elevations. Tuesday, temperatures will climb into the upper 70s to low 80s, which will be near the current record highs at our climate sites.
Given that BUFKIT sounding profiles look dry, dewpoints were lowered slightly below guidance using a blend of NBM, CONSALL, and CMC Regional. This resulted in values of upper 50s to low 60s. Tuesday night will be mild once again as temps will be in the 50s and even low 60s for a couple of locations. Fog will also be possible.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
200 PM Update...

The short term is expected to be quiet and warm with strong ridging in place. Temperatures will feel more like late summer rather than early fall with 500 mb heights up over 585 dm and 850 mb temperatures over 15C from Wednesday into Thursday night. Highs will be getting to near record temperatures Wednesday and Thursday in the low to mid 80s and warm overnight lows in the upper 50s and low 60s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
200 PM Update...

There is good confidence that there will be a major pattern change in the long range as the ridge breaks down and a trough digs into the Great Lakes region. Friday will remain warm as the ridge will still be in place but with increasing clouds and the ridge axis moving east, temperatures will be slightly cooler than mid week. The trough digging into the Great Lakes has trended a little slower and mode amplified today so there is a chance that Saturday could still be warmer as the cold front timing is later. With precipitable water values ahead of the trough getting to be over an inch in ensemble means and approaching 1.5 inches in some of the deterministic models, the slowing of the trough could mean greater rainfall amounts. Much cooler airmass settles into place as an upper level low gets cut off and spins in place in SE Canada into mid next week.
Great Lake water temperatures near 20C and 850 mb temps falling to near 0C means that there is a chance for lake effect rain showers Sunday into Monday so PoPs have been adjusted upwards across the northern Finger Lakes into the NY Thruway corridor.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR conditions will prevail at most terminals through the period, but with valley fog likely at ELM after 08/09Z (high confidence of at least IFR), and low to moderate confidence for fog at ITH and RME. Low level flow, above the radiational cooling inversion, is less conducive for bringing lake-induced stratus into SYR and RME, but will monitor closely.

Outlook...

Late Tuesday Night through Thursday...Mainly VFR expected; high confidence. Restrictions due to valley fog each morning most likely at ELM (moderate to high confidence).

Friday through Saturday...Restrictions possible as a system brings chances for rain showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms.

CLIMATE
High temperatures may be within a few degrees of record values on Tuesday 10/3 with the potential for near or record highs on Wednesday 10/4.

10/3 (Tue)
Avoca-84 in 1919: current forecast high is 83 Binghamton-81 in 1951: current forecast high is 80 Syracuse-86 in 1951: current forecast high is 83

10/4 (Wed)
Avoca-84 in 2007: current forecast high is 84 Binghamton-78 in 2017: current forecast high is 80 Syracuse-86 in 1951: current forecast high is 85

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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