Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Noxen, PA

KEY MESSAGES
1) A moist low pressure system will finish moving through the region today, with risks for locally heavy rain and isolated gusty thunderstorms shifting mainly east of the area by mid afternoon.

2) After a break of a couple days, a warm and humid pattern will take shape by Thursday and Friday with showers and a chance of thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A low pressure system is still moving through the region, after yielding locally heavy rainfall in parts of the area including some flash flooding Sunday evening. Though the axis of heavier rainfall will shunt generally east of the area with time, until then we could still have isolated heavy rain where repeated stripes of more robust showers can line up.

While the focus in the first phase of this system has been on the hydro side of things, there will also still be a marginal risk for a few thunderstorms with gusty winds from the Poconos to the southern Catskills today. Mixed Layer Convective Available Potential Energy (MLCAPE) values increase to slightly above 500 J/kg over Poconos-Catskills while exiting east around mid- afternoon, with 30-50 knots west-southwesterly flow in the 2-6km layer pointing to a decent amount of shear.

High pressure builds in for a brief reprieve from the wet weather for generally dry conditions Tuesday and most if not all of Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Late Wednesday into Wednesday night, warm air advection regime with one or two weak waves could cause a few showers and isolated thunder, but our next main rain chances will focus on Thursday through Friday for several reasons. The Bermuda high is expected to shift west, drawing up plenty of very warm and humid air from the south and driving up dew points. Meanwhile a broad upper trough over the northern Plains, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes will channel waves of energy toward our region and a weakening cut off upper low over the Tennessee Valley looks to gradually drift northeast across the southern and central Appalachians later in the week. The next frontal boundary also looks to try to approach from the west in the Thursday-Friday time frame and perhaps stall a bit.

So putting everything together, there will be multiple chances for showers and storms with dew points anywhere from the mid 60s to the mid 70s in spots. This will lead to some uncomfortable muggy conditions with high temperatures mainly in the 80s each afternoon and heat index values probably reaching at or above 90 in lower elevations. With Precipitable Water (Pwat) values around or exceeding 1.75 inches, we will again have to monitor potential for locally heavy rainfall, and if waves are well- timed diurnally perhaps a few stronger thunderstorms as well.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Some lingering showers will be possible at SYR and RME this morning. Ceiling restrictions will likely be in place until the afternoon. Restrictions should be Fuel Alt to MVFR though occasional drops to IFR will be possible, mainly at AVP and BGM.
Conditions will be VFR tonight for most terminals. Guidance is favoring fog at ELM and BGM but with light winds and moisture from recent rainfall, fog may be possible at other terminals.

Winds will go from southerly this morning to northwesterly later this afternoon. Winds will also begin to pick up during this transition with gusts peaking as high as 25 kts later this morning and afternoon. By the evening, winds become calm and will be light and variable overnight.

Outlook:

Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday through Friday...Scattered showers and isolated thunder; associated restrictions possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.