Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sandusky, OH

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Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 120130 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 930 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

SYNOPSIS. Surface high pressure will expand overhead tonight as low pressure continues northeast into Quebec. This will be followed by a trough moving southeast from the Midwest to the Ohio Valley on Sunday. Strong high pressure will move east across the Great Lakes Region on Monday and Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Cant completely rule out a passing sprinkle through 2 am near and east of a line from Cleveland to Youngstown. Chances of it occurring are too low to mention in the forecast. If it does occur it will be trace amounts. Otherwise only change was to hourly temperatures to reflect recent trends.

Previous Discussion . Quiet conditions will return for the overnight as high pressure expands overhead between systems. Only a few light showers remain in NW PA and those should pull away to the east through 6 PM. Tonight will be cooler than conditions experienced over the last week with lows in the lower 60s except mid 60s near the lakeshore.

Looking ahead to Sunday, a trough is noted on water vapor imagery upstream over Minnesota. This feature will dive southeast to the Ohio Valley, carving out a stronger trough. Convection is already ongoing ahead of this wave, and will track southeast along the instability gradient towards southern Indiana overnight. The potential for showers and thunderstorms to form in our forecast area will be influenced by overnight activity. Northern Ohio will be on the periphery of the thicker cloud field and may be able to destabilize sufficiently for additional convection. In addition, differential heating combined with modest theta-e advection will contribute to the likely development of scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and early evening. Best chances of showers and thunderstorms will be across the mid-section of the area. Temperatures will be near normal for mid July.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. A fairly strong upper level low pressure system will dive southeast into the central and northern Great Lakes Monday and Monday night. A vigorous upper level positive vorticity maximum associated with the low pressure system will move east with the low pressure system. A trough will swing through the local area as well. An upper level ridge will build east across the region Tuesday and Tuesday night forcing the upper level trough and low pressure system to move east of the area. A cold front will extend southwest from low pressure northeast of Maine Monday across the local area Monday night. High pressure will build east across the area Tuesday and east of the area Tuesday evening. This will allow a mostly dry warm front to move northeast across the area Tuesday night. As cold front and upper level support move east of the area, some lingering threat for showers and thunderstorms is possible over the eastern third of the forecast area Monday. Dry weather will be the rule Monday night through much of Tuesday night. Cold air advection will take place Monday and Monday night with a reinforcing cold front pushing cooler air into the area Monday night. Once the high begins to move east of the area and warm front lifts northeast across the area, forecast area will see a warming trend take place; especially in the west. Highs Monday will be in the middle 70s east to lower 80s west. Tuesday's highs will be in the middle 80s west and upper 70s to near 80 degrees east. Lows Monday night are expected to be in the middle 50s east to lower 60s west followed by middle 50s east and middle 60s west Tuesday night.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. A weak area of upper level ridging will shift east in a progressive nearly zonal flow across the forecast area Wednesday. Amplification of a broad upper level ridge will take place Friday and Friday night with increasing heights through Saturday. This will set the stage once again for another warming trend across the area mid week into next weekend. A surface high pressure that is expected to move east of the area Tuesday night will shift east to the Atlantic Ocean. The combination of the high to the east and low pressure east of the Rocky Mountains will force very warm back into the area from the deep south. Although, latest models have been trending slightly cooler during the midweek period but surge is still expected to push northeast across the area by the weekend. As the warm air increases so will the dewpoints. Dewpoints should climb back into the upper 60s by Thursday morning and upper 60s to lower 70s by Friday and Saturday. As instability increases due to the heating, threat for showers and thunderstorms will increase each day during the forecast period. Highs will warm into the middle 80s Wednesday, middle to upper 80s Thursday, and upper 80s to around 90 Saturday. Lows each night will be in the Lower to middle 60s east and middle to upper 60s elsewhere.

AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/. VFR conditions expected through the night. Some low end VFR ceilings may occur under a few showers/sprinkles that move across NE OH/NW PA. Otherwise any NON-VFR fog will be limited to the valleys away from the TAF sites. Clouds increase on Sunday but should remain VFR. A few showers/thunderstorms may drift into the region but should remain near of south of a KFDY to KMFD to KCAK line. Placed a vicinity shower in the TAF's for now and will change to a thunder mention when we become more confident in its occurrence.

Westerly winds will decrease overnight and become light and variable by 06Z. The light winds continue into Sunday morning but will increase as a trough/weak front move into the region during the afternoon. Winds will shift to the northwest and north in the wake of this boundary.

Outlook . Non-VFR possibler Sunday night into Monday, mainly NE OH into NW PA. Non-VFR possible late Wednesday night into Thursday in thunderstorms.

MARINE. Winds continue to be quite gusty on Lake Erie at this time with the stronger winds now pushing east over the eastern half of the area. Winds are diminishing slowly in the west. This is a result of the surface low pressure moving east off Lake Erie into western Pennsylvania at this time. Winds are expected to continue to diminish tonight to 10 knots or less from the north and stay there through Monday night. Then, as a high pressure moves east across Ohio, a warm front will lift north and winds will become southerly 10 knots or less Tuesday night into Wednesday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . KEC NEAR TERM . KEC/MM SHORT TERM . Lombardy LONG TERM . Lombardy AVIATION . MM MARINE . Lombardy

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH	6 mi	55 min	W 9.9 G 13	79°F	78°F		1008.5 hPa	66°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH	10 mi	73 min	WSW 5.1 G 6	78°F			1007.8 hPa (+0.3)
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH	12 mi	88 min	Calm	70°F			1009 hPa	66°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH	14 mi	73 min	WNW 15 G 16	80°F			1008 hPa
CMPO1	17 mi	103 min	WNW 5.1 G 7	76°F
LORO1	27 mi	43 min	W 11 G 13	79°F
TWCO1	33 mi	33 min	WNW 16 G 19		79°F
45165	34 mi	43 min	NW 12 G 16	80°F	79°F	1 ft		63°F
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH	36 mi	73 min	W 14 G 17	80°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH	44 mi	55 min	WNW 6 G 7				1009.3 hPa

Wind History for Marblehead, OH

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W17 G23

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W21 G27

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E6 G10

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SE4 G7

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Lorain / Elyria, Lorain County Regional Airport, OH	29 mi	20 min	WSW 4	10.00 mi	Fair	71°F	62°F	73%	1008.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLPR

Wind History from LPR (wind in knots)

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W11

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NW13 G23

NW13 G23

NW18 G27

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NW12 G25

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (23,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH

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