Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sandusky, OH

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Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 132113 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 413 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

SYNOPSIS. A trough of low pressure will move northeast through the Ohio Valley tonight before merging with a stronger system moving up the East Coast Saturday. A cold front will be pulled east across the area as this system pulls away. High pressure will build east across the region on Sunday before another low pressure system move northeast up the Ohio Valley on Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Southerly flow will bring increasing moisture to the region overnight with lower clouds and patchy fog developing. An area of precipitation can be seen on regional radars developing near the Ohio River which will overspread the region tonight as shortwave energy streams north out of the approaching upper level trough. Precipitation will fill in after midnight and be widespread east of a line from Marion to Sandusky. Precipitation amounts will range from just a few hundredths in NW Ohio up to almost an inch in NW PA. Thermal profiles will be just warm enough for mostly liquid precipitation overnight but could see a mix with snow across NW Ohio and even a brief accumulation if rates pick up towards sunrise. Otherwise rain will gradually pull away from west to east through the day on Saturday as most of the energy with this system shifts to the East Coast. Temperatures on Saturday will only warm a few degrees but should be sufficient for precipitation during the daytime hours to transition back to rain before colder air wraps in from the west late in the day. We will need to keep an eye on the change over timing to snow in NW Pennsylvania as a few wet inches may be possible after sunset. Will let later shifts take another look at timing of the change over and any possible need for an Advisory. As the upper level trough shifts east of the area, deeper system moisture will pull away and could result in a change back over to rain before the colder air arrives. Eventually we will see lake effect snow showers flare up. Conditions are not overly favorable until after 06Z given some veering of the flow with height, but shear decreases towards morning and lift increases in the dendritic growth zone. Snow showers are expected to increase in coverage with a west northwest flow across the lake providing a favorable fetch. A Winter Weather Advisory will likely be needed for Erie County PA but may need to be expanded to other areas as well.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. West flow will continue to allow for lake effect snow showers over the snow belt across northeast OH and northwest PA. There is some uncertainty on where exactly the band will focus . so have made a wide goal post. We will continue to narrow down the focus area over the next 24 hours. Snow will begin to tapper off during the day Sunday. An upper level trough moves east toward western Ohio Sunday night into Monday . bringing another round of precipitation. Snow spreads north across the region Sunday night into Monday morning . with a mix of rain and snow late morning. A warm front will lift north toward southern Ohio . with all rain forecast for much of the area by late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Surface high pressure will begin building east over Ohio Tuesday morning with precipitation ending from west to east. The one exception will be the snow belt . where snow will linger as cold air filters into the region.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Cold air continues to filter into the region Tuesday night through the rest of the work week as an upper low moves southeast across the Great Lakes. Daytime high temperatures on Wednesday look to be the coldest of the week . generally topping out in the mid 20s . just over 10 degrees below normal. Morning low temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday also look chilly . with readings in the mid to upper teens. Wind Chill values bottom out on Wednesday morning . generally single digits for much of the area. There is a little relief on Thursday as subtle upper level ridging impacts the region. Temperatures will warm around 10 degrees . with daytime high temperatures in the mid 30s The area looks to remain dry during this period. with the exception of the snow belt . where some light snow is possible.

AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/. VFR conditions remain across the area but will see a gradual decline in aviation conditions into tonight as moisture increases from the south. Clouds will lower to IFR at all terminals except TOL with terminals near and east of I-71 seeing visibilities decline to 2-5 miles in rain. Some snow may also mix in at MFD in the 8-15Z window. Fog can not be ruled out but at this time is not expected to become widespread. Gradual improvement in conditions is expected on Saturday as drier air wraps in from the west late in the period. South to southeast winds of 10 knots or less today will back to the north and northwest tonight as low pressure tracks up the East Coast. Winds may become breezy with gusts to 20 knots at CLE/ERI Saturday afternoon.

OUTLOOK. Non-VFR lingers into Sunday with scattered snow showers at ERI. Non-VFR possible again on Monday and Tuesday with periods of rain and/or snow.

MARINE. A brisk northwest wind will develop on Saturday with waves building during the day Saturday into Sunday. A small craft advisory for these winds and waves was issued beginning Saturday afternoon and evening generally east of Vermilion. For now the small craft continues through Sunday morning . but may need to be extended in the next 24 hours Otherwise. winds diminish to light and variable late Sunday night and then become light east . southeast on Monday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for LEZ147>149. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for LEZ145-146.

SYNOPSIS . KEC NEAR TERM . KEC SHORT TERM . Riley LONG TERM . Riley AVIATION . KEC MARINE . Riley

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH	6 mi	47 min	S 2.9 G 5.1	43°F	36°F		1013.6 hPa	33°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH	10 mi	77 min	S 4.1 G 8	45°F			1012.5 hPa (-3.1)
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH	12 mi	92 min	S 1.9	46°F			1014 hPa	33°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH	14 mi	77 min	S 9.9 G 9.9	41°F			1014.5 hPa (-2.8)
CMPO1	17 mi	107 min	SSW 6 G 8.9	44°F
LORO1	27 mi	47 min	S 7 G 9.9	43°F
TWCO1	33 mi	27 min	SSE 7 G 8.9
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH	36 mi	77 min	SE 7 G 8	38°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH	44 mi	47 min	S 5.1 G 6	42°F			1013.5 hPa	32°F

Wind History for Marblehead, OH

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SW10 G17

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Lorain / Elyria, Lorain County Regional Airport, OH	29 mi	24 min	S 8	10.00 mi	Overcast	41°F	27°F	57%	1015.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLPR

Wind History from LPR (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (16,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH

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