Sunrise 6:45 AM   Sunset 8:15 PM Moonrise 1:12 PM   Moonset 3:21 AM

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LEZ144 Expires:202404180215;;924691 Fzus51 Kcle 172332 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 732 pm edt Wed apr 17 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez142>144-180215- maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh- the islands to vermilion oh- 732 pm edt Wed apr 17 2024
Tonight - West winds 10 to 15 knots. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms early. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday - West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers overnight. Waves 2 feet or less. Friday - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Saturday through Monday.
the water temperature off toledo is 55 degrees, off cleveland 46 degrees, and off erie 48 degrees.

LEZ100
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FXUS61 KCLE 180156 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 956 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front brings showers and storms through the area this evening into early tonight. Brief high pressure Thursday, followed by another cold front late Thursday night into early Friday. Much cooler into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
10PM Update...
A few lingering light showers continue over far eastern Erie and Crawford counties in PA, which will shift east of the area soon.
Once those move out, conditions will remain dry for the rest of the night with temperatures falling into the low to mid 50s. The biggest change with this update is decreasing the winds through the overnight. Winds should remain 10-15 mph, possibly gusting up to 20 mph occasionally.

815PM Update...
The Tornado Watch has been cancelled across the CWA as the severe threat has diminished. Rain showers will continue over NW PA over the next hour before moving east of the area.

Previous Discussion...
Squall line continues to progress east across the region this evening with some tornadic damage. The squall line will sweep east of the region by 01z as a cold frontal boundary moves through. The precipitation will end as the cold front moves east this evening and cooler more stable air will overspread the region. POPS have been cut on the backside of the squall line.

Previous discussion: Destabilization with MLCAPE to 1500J/kg continues ahead of the line of convection moving through the western portion of Ohio at the time of this issuance. Surface dewpoints currently surging into the lower 60s in western Ohio, and expecting winds at the surface to back as the cold front currently moving into Indiana approaches. This will serve to increase the 0-1km helicity ahead of the convection assisting in formation of rotating updrafts. Also have good deep layer shear and dry air punch in the mid levels seen in the water vapor satellite imagery, and ultimately have many ingredients coming together for the severe weather threat unfolding across the region. Expecting a progressive event and efficient tracking of the activity through the CWA in a few hours time with the higher POPs exiting just after 00Z Thursday. One thing to consider with this severe weather threat is with the bowing of the broad scale line of convection if it cuts off some of the southwesterly oriented inflow to the north of the apex. Does not eliminate the threat for storms, but could slightly lessen the severe chances a bit further north.

Upon exit, lower level clouds advect back into the region, a modest cool down ensues, and brief upper level/surface ridging makes its way back into the region for Thursday. Cooler day expected with afternoon breaks in the clouds and a rapidly approaching cold front once again from the west in the continued progressive pattern. This secondary cold front will represent a more significant change of airmass heading into the short term forecast period. POPs enter after 00Z Friday west to east into Friday night.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A strong cold front will bisect the region Friday morning as a broad mid/upper trough swings into the Great Lakes, with an associated closed mid-level low lifting into the James Bay vicinity. This will usher in some late season cold air for the weekend as 850 mb temps fall to -3 to -5 C by Saturday as the trough axis remains across the Great Lakes and the closed low continues to spin over James Bay.
Showers and a few pockets of thunder will exit eastern areas rather quickly Friday morning as the front moves east, leaving most areas dry Friday afternoon. However, the broad cyclonic flow, westerly boundary layer winds across the lake, strong cold air advection, and aforementioned 850 mb temps will lead to enough lake induced instability for lake-effect showers over far NE Ohio and NW PA later Friday into Saturday, so maintained slight chance to chance PoPs there. A limiting factor is dry air and a quick increase in boundary layer shear, so it will not amount to much, but pattern recognition points to light precip hanging on in these areas. Some snow could mix in Friday night into Saturday morning in the highest elevations of southern Erie and northern Crawford Counties. Broad surface high pressure over the Plains and Midwest will finally extend its ridging east enough Saturday afternoon and Saturday night to shut down any lake-effect precip, so have all areas dry by Saturday night.

The main story with this cold spell will be frost/freeze potential.
Highs in the upper 50s/low 60s Friday will only rise into the upper 40s/low 50s Saturday. Lows Friday night should stay up enough to prevent frost due to winds staying in the 10-20 knot range. The coldest spots of NW PA should even stay in the upper 30s given the winds and clouds/precip off the lake. Lows Friday night will range from the upper 30s to low 40s across the region. However, Saturday night could spell trouble as the surface ridging extending into the region leads to decreasing winds and more potential for clearing skies. At this time, lows Saturday night look to range from the low to upper 30s, with the coldest temps in eastern Ohio and interior NW PA, as well as around the central highlands and along the US 30 corridor. With the vegetation really beginning to sprout over the past week, we have begun the Spring frost/freeze program, so headlines are expected Saturday night.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The mid/upper troughing over the Great Lakes and eastern CONUS will gradually relax Sunday through early next week, but the closed low will continue to spin over James Bay keeping a relatively cool WNW flow pattern in place through early to mid week. Broad surface high pressure extending into the Ohio Valley Sunday will gradually move east Monday, reaching the Mid Atlantic coast by Tuesday leading to gradually rebounding temperatures to near to below normal for this time of year. Frost/freeze headlines are possible again Sunday night, especially for eastern Ohio and NW PA. Deterministic and ensemble guidance are in good agreement on a northern stream mid/upper shortwave diving through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday which will reinforce and deepen the longwave troughing over the eastern CONUS by mid week, but timing of this feature varies among the guidance leading to low confidence on the timing of showers. For now, kept the blended PoPs which has chance PoPs arriving late Monday night and Tuesday and continuing into Wednesday.

Highs in the low/mid 50s Sunday will warm into the upper 50s/low 60s Monday and solid low 60s Tuesday. Highs should then cool into the mid 50s to around 60 by Wednesday.

AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/
Squall line is progressing across the region this evening and extends along the OH/PA line with the back edge from Lake County to just west of Youngstown. MVFR/IFR conditions prevail in the squall line along with winds from 40-70 knots along with hail and a tornadic storm north of KYNG. The Squall line will race east of the area by 01Z with improving conditions. A more stable airmass will overspread the region toward midnight with brief clearing just behind the squall line before low-mid clouds overspread the region without precipitation. MVFR ceilings can be expected much of Thursday with some clearing toward noon and into the afternoon. Westerly winds of 10-20 knots with gusts to 20-30 knots this evening will diminish toward midnight around 10-15 knot.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible for Friday into Saturday in rain.

MARINE
A line of showers and thunderstorms will cross Lake Erie this evening leading to locally higher winds and waves and cloud to ground lightning strikes. Otherwise, relatively quiet marine conditions are expected over the next couple of days with winds and waves below Small Craft criteria. Winds will veer to WSW at 10-15 knots tonight behind the cold front, becoming light and variable by Thursday evening. Winds will then become S to SW Thursday night and increase to 10-15 knots before turning W and increasing to 15-20 knots Friday behind another cold front. This may build waves over 4 feet in the central and eastern basins, so Small Craft headlines are possible Friday. W winds of 15-20 knots look to continue well into Saturday with waves above 4 feet at times, so Small Craft headlines are possible through Saturday. Winds will turn NW and gradually decrease to 10-15 knots Saturday night and Sunday, becoming SW at 5- 10 knots Sunday night and Monday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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