Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Moodus, CT

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments to account for the latest observations and trends of temperature and dew points into the early afternoon. High temperatures were increased a degree or two.

Deep layered ridging through the period with the surface high center drifting off the Mid-Atlantic coast this afternoon. This will allow sea breezes to develop, but not before temperatures climb above normals even in spots affected by the onshore winds. Highs generally in the 70s. Mainly clear conditions then continue through tonight.
Winds will be light tonight, but from the SW, so this along with today's warmth will lead to above normal low temperatures by about 5 degrees. Lows mostly 50-55.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Low pressure tracks across SE Canada, dragging a cold front through the forecast area late Tuesday night. Forcing and moisture will be lacking, but upstream weakening convection may survive long enough to have a few showers for parts of the area during Tuesday night.
CAMs and some deterministic regional and global models currently showing a better chance of precip reaching here versus what's implied by NBM PoPs and qpf output. Have therefore bumped up precip chances from NBM, but still below 50%. Can't rule out thunder either NW of the city during the evening, but severe wx not anticipated.
It's also likely that there's a wide range of high temperatures across the area during Tuesday as SW flow holds most of the southern coasts of LI and SE CT into the 60s. Highs then range upward into the low to mid 80s for the urban corridor of NE NJ where temps were adjusted upward a few degrees from NBM based on mostly sunny conditions and h8 temps near 13-14C.

High pressure builds back in from the NW behind the cold front with slight ridging aloft during Wednesday. This keeps us dry through Wednesday night. The position of the high along with a NW flow that will probably be just strong enough to ward off any seabreezes for most or all of the daytime will allow for highs mostly in the 70s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Ridging aloft centered over the Eastern US midweek begins to translate east to start the period. Along with it, broad surface high pressure shifts offshore and return flow develops Thursday.
Thereafter, a digging trough into the Great Lakes region with a couple embedded shortwaves will send a frontal system toward the region late in the week. Associated warm front looks to lift through locally Thursday night, followed by a cold frontal passage Friday night, bringing an increased chance for showers, and perhaps a few tstorms as well. Global ensembles continue to dry out the region Saturday as high pressure builds in from the west, though timing differences remain, with the 00Z EPS a bit quicker with the exiting system than the GEFS. QPF looks modest, under an inch outside any localized convective maxima.

Seasonable temperatures to start the period on Thursday, highs in the 60s and lower 70s. Region then is warm sectored Friday, setting up one of the warmest days this week. Temperatures away from maritime influence, generally west of the Hudson River, likely climb into the upper 70s and lower 80s, with potential for mid 80s. Cooler along the immediate coast with onshore southerly flow, closer to 70. The region falls back to a more typical air mass for the time of year over the weekend behind a cold fropa.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
High pressure settles in this afternoon before sliding offshore tonight.

VFR thru TAF period.

Winds back to the WSW, then more SW later this afternoon, earliest at immediate coastal terminals, with speeds remaining around or under 10 kt. General light SW flow then continues overnight, before speeds increase into mid to late Tuesday AM, with gusts 20 to 25 kt developing by afternoon.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of SW and S wind shift this afternoon into early this evening could be 1-2 hours off from TAF.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Tuesday afternoon / night: VFR Tuesday afternoon, and mainly VFR Tuesday night. Slight chance of MVFR with showers at night. SW wind gusts 20 to 25 kt afternoon and at night.

Wednesday: VFR. W-NW wind gusts around 20 kt mainly during the morning and early afternoon, winds lighter later in the afternoon.

Thursday: VFR during day. MVFR or lower possible with a chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms at night.

Friday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into early evening.

Saturday: MVFR possible in rain / showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Conditions remain below advisory thresholds across all waters through Tuesday morning. Winds and seas then increase ahead of an approaching cold front, which is expected to pass through late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Had enough confidence to go with a SCA on the ocean from noon Tuesday through Tuesday night, and this will likely need to be extended further in time. As for the non- ocean waters, not enough confidence to extend beyond the 3rd period, so for the time being, the advisory is for Tuesday afternoon only.

Increasing southerly flow is expected late Thursday into Friday as a frontal system begins to move through the region. This may lead to a period of SCA conditions on the ocean, especially Friday, with wind gusts up to 25 kt and seas 5 to 6 ft.

FIRE WEATHER
RH values fall to 20-25% in several locations today, however winds will be light, mainly below 15 mph, so no concerns for fire spread.
For Tuesday, RH may fall to around 30% for parts of NE NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley with afternoon gusts potentially exceeding 20 mph. Current dewpoint forecast may be too low based on a SW flow, but at least a low chance of fire spread exists.

HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns through the forecast period.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Astronomically high tides will couple with a modest SW flow to allow water levels to approach or just exceed minor flood thresholds in the more vulnerable locales of coastal Nassau, Queens, and Fairfield during times of high tide early this week.

A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for this evening's high tide cycle in the above mentioned areas, with up to a half foot of inundation possible. There is potential for an additional statement once again Tuesday evening.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ331- 332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory from noon Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353-355.