Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Higganum, CT

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
Going into this evening, expecting an overall increase in cloud coverage.

Jet stream, South Central US through Northeast US, jet winds increase through tonight.

For tonight a weak pressure gradient remains as high pressure axis moves in and center of high pressure shifts south of the area. The center of the high will be moving towards the Southeast US coast.

With mid level ridge axis moving east of the region, more trough pattern takes shape. This will lead to decreasing subsidence. Mid level low will be approaching from South Central Canada.

Would expect to have increasing and abundance of clouds coming over the ridge. While surface light winds will promote more radiational cooling, the extra cloud coverage will partially mitigate this.

Have a blend of NBM and MOS consensus for the area low temperatures tonight, ranging from lower 20s to lower 30s. This will make for a less vast range of lows and keep temperatures slightly warmer for rural and outlying locations. Dry conditions expected to prevail.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
Jet streak translates close to the region, staying just south of the area Monday through Monday night.

Mid level zonal flow expected Monday through Monday night with the mid level low moving from near northern Minnesota to the eastern Great Lakes.

At the surface, low pressure travels eastward just north of the Great Lakes. The low eventually gets to Southern Quebec to near Maine by early Tuesday. An associated cold front moves across the local area Monday night.

High pressure strengthens to the west of the low. The local region will have a strengthening pressure gradient between the low and high. A gusty WNW to NW flow develops as a result Monday afternoon into Monday night.

Clouds will increase Monday into Monday night but decrease later Monday night into Tuesday with surface high pressure briefly building in. However, the center of the high pressure stays well to the south and west of the region. Another cold front then approaches, moving across late Tuesday. While not much cloud increase is expected, this front will reinforce the very cold airmass moving in with strong cold air advection.

Used a blend of MAV and MET MOS guidance and added an extra degree for the high temperature forecast on Monday. Increasing WSW flow Monday and higher vertical mixing should allow for a relatively warmer day than the previous day. Forecast highs range mainly in the low to mid 40s.

For lows Monday night, took a blend of NBM, consensus of raw model data, as well as the MAV and MET MOS. While winds staying up in the boundary layer and some extra clouds may be limiting factors, there is still increasing cold air advection indicated by the models. The net result are lows about the same as the previous night but wind chills will be much more apparent here.

Tuesday, dry conditions, gusty westerly flow and much colder than the previous day. Highs only getting to near freezing.
Tight pressure gradient between low pressure in the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure west of the Great Lakes.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Mainly dry conditions for the first part of the long term as high pressure builds in at the surface from the Mid-west Tuesday night.
Meanwhile, a cutoff upper low and associated trough pushes east. A surface trough moves through Wednesday. With weak lift, no precipitation is expected, just a reinforcing shot of cold air.
Temperatures through Thursday will be below normal, ranging from the upper 20s to just above freezing for high temperatures.
Additionally, as the surface low associated with the upper low deepens offshore and the incoming high also strengthens, conditions will be blustery, mainly for Wednesday. NW winds of 10 to around 15 mph are expected, with gusts 20-30 mph. Combined with the wind, temperatures will feel like the teens and 20s during the day on Wednesday, and it will feel slightly warmer for Thursday as the wind diminish.

Deep layered riding aloft late Thursday night into Friday morning out ahead of an approaching frontal system from central Canada. This deep layered ridging aids in the dissipation of the frontal system for Friday, with dry conditions continuing, but a SW flow Thursday night into Friday morning will allow temperatures to warm to near seasonable levels.

The next chance for widespread precipitation comes next weekend as another more potent frontal system impacts the region. As is typically the case, there are timing and placement issues with any features, so stuck close to NBM.

AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR as high pressure over the area through tonight slides east on Mon.

Winds in the process of backing WNW-W and diminishing. Winds should become SW late tonight, then increase to around or just under 10 kt after 14Z Mon.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday afternoon: VFR. SW winds G20kt.

Monday night: VFR. Cold fropa early followed by W-NW winds G15-20kt.

Tuesday through Wednesday: VFR. NW winds 15G25kt.

Wednesday night: VFR. NW winds G20kt in the evening.

Thursday and Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Sub-SCA conditions continue with the weak pressure gradient across the waters tonight into Monday morning. Then chances increase for SCA conditions on the ocean Monday afternoon through Monday night as pressure gradient tightens between low pressure northwest of the region and high pressure southwest of the region. Non-ocean waters could also get SCA level wind gusts Monday night, but felt these may be more marginal and occasional. Therefore, only have SCA for the ocean Monday afternoon through Monday night at this time.

For Tuesday, SCA will likely be needed for this day with widespread 25-30 kt gusts expected for all marine zones.

Widespread SCA wind gusts expected for all marine zones on Tuesday.

Strong pressure gradient over the waters Tuesday night will likely allow SCAs to continue over all waters through much of Wednesday.
Non-ocean waters may wind gusts fall below 25 kt by sunset Wednesday night and ocean waters a few hours later.

Waves on the ocean waters peak Tuesday night at 4 to 7 ft and 4 to 5 ft over the central sound waters. Waves diminish Wednesday, falling below 5 ft over all ocean waters by Wednesday night.

HYDROLOGY
Dry conditions continue through Tuesday. No hydrologic problems expected.

No hydrologic impacts expected into the beginning of next weekend.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Monday to 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.