Sunrise 5:28 AM   Sunset 8:05 PM Moonrise 12:20 PM   Moonset 2:06 AM

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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 600 Am Edt Tue Mar 30 2021
Today - E winds around 5 kt, becoming S late this morning and afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Tonight - S winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Wed - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers in the morning, then chance of rain in the afternoon. Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Thu - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers.Thu night - NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Fri - NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Fri night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Sat - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Sat night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

ANZ300 324 Pm Edt Wed May 15 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - Low pressure approaches from the south this evening and then meanders just south of the area tonight before slowly pulling away to the southeast Thursday. Weak high pressure then builds in from the northeast Thursday night through Friday. This will be followed by another frontal system and potential wave of low pressure late weekend. High pressure then builds in for early next week.

FXUS61 KOKX 151730 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 130 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure slowly approaches from the south today into tonight and departs to the southeast Thursday into Thursday night.
Brief high pressure builds from the northeast Friday. This will be followed by another frontal system and potential wave of low pressure over the weekend. High pressure then builds in for early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Widespread light rain continues, with a band of some heavier showers now moving through western CT. There could be a lull in the activity early this afternoon where PoPs drop to chance, but rain chances then increase from south to north later this afternoon.

Low pressure will continue to slowly approach from the south and is currently just off the Delmarva coast.

Numerical weather prediction models convey that forcing for lift increases as shown by mid level positive vorticity advection later this afternoon. Also indicated is isentropic lift, allowing for the rain to be overspreading and expanding throughout the area this afternoon. The models also indicate a continuously moist environment with layer precipitable water reaching values mainly between 1.2 and 1.4 inches.

Temperatures stay in the 60s today with the rain which for most locations will be periodic or intermittent.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
The low gets closest to Long Island tonight and then slowly makes its way out into the Atlantic Thursday into Thursday night.
High pressure will briefly build in from the Canadian Maritimes for Friday and Friday night.

Models overall have shifted farther north with the low and the speed of the low appears to be lower compared to previous forecasts also. This has resulted in higher POPs for tonight and Thursday with rain likely for much of the two time periods.

Also with the closer proximity of the low, low level omega is forecast to increase especially across eastern sections of the forecast region. In addition, the pressure gradient will become tight, making for gusty winds from the NE tonight into Thursday.

Models have also depicted Showalter Indices getting near zero across mainly the southern coastal areas for Thursday, so have a slight chance of thunderstorms.

The rain tonight into Thursday is expected to be steady and light to moderate at times. Some brief locally heavy rain will be possible as the layer precipitable waters will be very similar to the previous day.

Chances for rain remain Thursday night and eventually diminish late Thursday night as low pressure moves farther away. Drier air will eventually come into the area late Thursday night into Friday. Dry conditions are forecast to persist through Friday night.

Temperatures still mainly in the 60s for highs Thursday with a rebound of high temperatures on Friday back to near to slightly above normal values, mostly upper 60s to mid 70s with more sun and decreasing NE flow compared to the previous day.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The NBM was generally used for the extended period with no major changes in the forecast. There still remains a good deal of uncertainty with the handling of the next surface low pressure system in the vicinity of the area over the weekend and into early next week. The previous discussion follows:

Another system very much like the one preceding it midweek will potentially impact the area over the weekend. However, there is quite a bit of spread in the globals with the southern branch closed low as it moves near the Mid Atlantic coast at the end of the weekend and offshore early next week. This seems partly due to the interaction of a northern stream shortwave trough lifting across the Great Lakes Friday and into eastern Canada over the weekend. While the two streams remain separate, their influence on one another will determine the placement of the upper low. The latest ECMWF takes the upper low and shears it off with the bulk of the energy moving into the Southeast U.S. The GFS and Canadian have the low track much farther north with the potential for the area to get into the better forcing just north of its track. The ECMWF is a mainly dry forecast with surface ridging remaining in place. Thus, the NBM was followed with some adjustments based on the aforementioned operational run and the latest consensus forecast. This gives the area increasing chances of rain Saturday afternoon/evening through Sunday. Weak high pressure may move into the area on Monday.

There is quite a bit of uncertainty in the forecast over the weekend. There is good reason to expect changes in the forecast with subsequent issuances.

Highs during the period will be closer to normal on Monday, but several degrees below over the weekend due to the chances of rain.
This could very well change due to the differences previously mentioned in the low track. Lows will be on the mild side due to a prolonged period of cloud cover forecast.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Low pressure off the Middle Atlantic coast slowly tracks towards the area through tonight. The low meanders just south of the Long Island coast Thursday.

Flight categories will be highly variable this afternoon. There may be fluctuations between VFR and MVFR at NYC terminals with IFR to MVFR prevailing elsewhere. Conditions should begin to lower back to IFR this evening into Thursday morning. Some improvement to MVFR is expected middle to late morning.

Light rain will continue this afternoon and should be most widespread across Long Island and southern CT. Similar conditions will continue tonight with potential for moderate to locally heavy rainfall across eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut. There is chance only intermittent light rain occurs over the NYC metro terminals on NW. Spotty rain is possible Thursday morning.

E-ENE winds will become NE tonight. Lower confidence in wind speeds and gusts through the period. Wind speeds should become 10-15 kt this afternoon and evening with gusts 18-20 kt early this evening. Gusts likely become 20-25 kt with potential of a few gusts to 30 kt near the coast. There is a chance gusts end up occasional overnight. Winds shift to the NNE-N around 15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt Thursday morning.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Low confidence flight category and wind speed/wind gust forecast.

Amendments likely for changing in flight categories. Timing of IFR this evening could be off by 1-3 hours.

Wind gusts may be occasional this evening/tonight.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday Afternoon-Night: MVFR to IFR. A chance of showers especially early. NE winds G20-25kt.

Friday: VFR.

Saturday and Sunday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR and showers.
SE winds G15-20kt.

Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Conditions trend from below SCA much of today to SCA level wind gusts late this afternoon along the ocean mostly. Then all waters will have SCA levels gusts tonight through much of Thursday. Some SCA gusts could linger into Thursday night.
Below SCA gusts expected Friday into Friday night.

Seas on the ocean start out below SCA today and then get into SCA range tonight and likely remain at SCA levels thereafter through Friday night. SCA level seas also forecast for extreme Eastern LI Sound (East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River)
tonight into Thursday. Otherwise, non-ocean waters look to remain below SCA levels during the short term that goes through Friday night.

Lingering wave heights near 5 feet on the ocean will result in SCA conditions continuing on Saturday. The waters then look to remain below SCA thresholds through Sunday but exact placement in a low pressure system to the south may change the forecast.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the beginning of next week.

Rainfall in the today through Thursday time frame with amounts on average between 0.25 and 1.25 inches. Can not rule out a few isolated higher amounts near 1.5 inches with Long Island being the best spot to see those higher values.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353- 355.

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