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LEZ145 Vermilion To Avon Point Oh-avon Point To Willowick Oh- Willowick To Geneva-on-the Lake Oh- 607 Pm Est Sat Dec 2 2023
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. Patchy fog. A slight chance of showers late. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west and increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of rain showers in the evening. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Tuesday through Thursday.
the water temperature off toledo is 44 degrees, off cleveland 45 degrees, and off erie 43 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 030840 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 340 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

SYNOPSIS
A low pressure system will move northeast across the Ohio Valley today. A ridge will briefly push over the area on Monday before another system impacts the region by Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure will return by Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Active weather is expected through the near term period, including widespread rain, snow mixing in with rain, and even the chance for a few thunderstorms.

For early today, weakening low pressure moving northeast across the spine of the Appalachians and associated weak isentropic lift is resulting in scattered to widespread rain showers across East and Northeast Ohio this morning. This activity is expected to lift northeast of the region by mid-morning as the weakening low becomes absorbed by a strengthening upper-level trough off to the west.

By later today, the next system will impact the region with widespread rain and perhaps a few thunderstorms out east. A deepening upper- level trough will quickly strengthen across the Ohio Valley, maxing out at around 170 to 180 knots of southwesterly flow aloft (300 mb) and eliciting a surface low response and associated cold front across the Lower Great Lakes.
Convection is expected to develop along a pre-frontal trough generally east and along the I-77 corridor by early to mid- afternoon within a weakly-unstable environment, characterized by MUCAPE reaching between 250 to 500 J/kg. Strong unidirectional shear and long hodographs may support instances of strong to severe wind and/or hail in the strongest cells or clusters this afternoon, particularly across far NE OH and NW PA along the OH/PA border where an SPC SWODY1 marginal risk exists.

Cooler air will arrive behind the cold front late this evening and overnight, resulting in lake-enhanced rain and/or snow showers to develop across NE OH and NW PA as surface troughing lingers, resulting in weak lakeshore convergence. Precipitation coverage is expected to increase by Monday morning as a secondary trough sweeps southeast across the Eastern Great Lakes. The air mass on Monday is only expected to be marginally cold and mainly supportive of a rain/snow mix, so not anticipating much in the way of snow accumulation.

Average to above-average temperatures are expected for today with highs ranging from the upper 40s across NW OH to the low to mid-50s across the warm sector of NE OH. Below-average temperatures will arrive behind the cold front tonight, with highs struggling to reach the 40-degree mark on Monday.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
The region will be behind a cold front on Monday night. Continued lake effect/enhanced precipitation with cold air advection over Lake Erie will allow for some chance PoPs to be needed for the eastern portion of the forecast area for the start of the period with a mix of rain and snow. Low level ridging will enter the area very early Tuesday and backing flow should shut off lake processes and allow for a very brief window of relatively dry weather conditions. Low level moisture still appears ample across the region and clouds will remain. Another low pressure system and upper trough combination will move through the region on Tuesday and Tuesday night and have high PoPs for the area. Precipitation type will be a mix of rain and snow, as temperature profiles support a mix of snow or melting snow.
Cold advection over Lake Erie will continue to support lake effect/enhancement processes and have higher PoPs lingering on Tuesday night into Wednesday for the eastern half of the area. High pressure will then begin to enter the region and backed flow will end any lake effect and allow for a dry forecast to start winning out.



LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The weather pattern across the region will try to settle down for at least the first half of the long term forecast period. An upper ridge and surface high pressure will build into the area and have a dry forecast for Thursday, Thursday night, and Friday with temperatures improving to slightly above normal into the lower 50s for Friday. For Friday night and beyond, the pattern will return to being unsettled with returning rain chances. Currently, several ensembles and the NBM suggest a system moving through the region on Saturday. However, believe that this system will evolve slower than currently anticipated with a large ridge to break down and the main upper trough energy not arriving until Saturday night. Therefore, have no higher than chance PoPs at this time for the end of the period and can see Friday night evolving to be completely dry with the next couple of forecast cycles. If the system does indeed evolve slower, then temperatures on Saturday should remain above normal.



AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/
MVFR, IFR, and LIFR are present across the TAF sites early this morning, associated with both low ceilings and vsbys from patchy fog. Fog may become dense at times across NW OH into this morning, primarily impacting TOL/FDY/MFD. Any lingering IFR and LIFR will begin to lift to MVFR by mid- morning across much of the area, though pockets of IFR from heavier rain showers cannot be ruled out in the afternoon as an area of low pressure moves east through the area. Did not include any thunder mention in this TAF package although could see a few isolated strikes impact ERI/YNG if convection becomes more robust in the mid to late afternoon.

Winds are generally light and primarily from the east to northeast early this morning, 5 to 10 knots. Winds will become southwest to west later this morning and afternoon, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots possible.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in periods of rain and/or snow late Sunday night through Thursday.

MARINE
A low pressure system southwest of Lake Michigan this morning will move east-northeast today merging with another weak low and deepening into a single, stronger low over eastern Lake Erie this evening. Winds will start northeast ahead of the system this morning but will rapidly shift to the southwest and increase to 20-25 kts for the eastern two-thirds of the lake. Therefore, have hoisted a Small Craft Advisory for locations east of the Lake Erie Islands starting late this afternoon/evening. For areas west of Avon Point, have the advisory ending late Monday morning and for areas east, have the advisory until 1 AM on Tuesday. With the southwest flow, water levels in the western basin of Lake Erie will be something to monitor. Current forecasts suggest that levels should stay about a foot above the critical mark with the lowest levels occurring tonight.

A low level ridge will enter the region on Monday and allow for winds to veer to the west and northwest before returning to the southwest as this feature slides to the east on Tuesday. A low pressure system will move through the region Tuesday night into Wednesday and northwest flow will return to the lake, as this feature extends a cold front across the basin. High pressure will build from the south for the end of the week and southwest flow will return to the lake. The strength of this offshore flow will vary, as the pressure gradient with this surface high will fluctuate with systems passing well to the north. With the variety of systems moving through the region, there is low confidence if any of these later in the week will remain significant enough to merit the need for another marine headline, but it does remain possible.



CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Monday for LEZ144-145.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ146>148.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ149.

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