Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lakewood, OH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Mainly quiet weather is expected for the near term period as a stationary front lingers just south of the area across the Ohio Valley. Introduced some slight chance PoPs late this evening and overnight across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania as a surface trough swings across Lake Erie. No thunder is expected with this activity. Otherwise, hires models continue to flip- flop on precipitation potential across the southern portion of the area (generally south of US-30), though based on current convective trends, the pattern appears to favor a mostly dry forecast across our area through this evening. There is a low chance of showers and thunderstorms briefly impacting the southern portion of the area (same vicinity south of the US-30 corridor) late tonight into Friday morning.

High pressure will gradually build south across the Great Lakes on Friday, resulting in quiet and mostly pleasant weather conditions with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Main concern for the short term period will be heavy rain and flash flooding potential from thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday night. Aloft, an upper-level trough will move east through the Upper Great Lakes while a ridge develops and builds across the Deep South. A favorable environment for heavy rain will be in place across the Lower Great Lakes region, with PWATs once again approaching 2.0 inches in the vicinity of a stationary front. WPC currently has the entire area in a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for flash flooding. There is currently no SPC outlook at this point for Saturday, though could certainly see future inclusion if model trends persist with MLCAPE of around 1500 J/kg and northwest bulk shear of near 30 knots in place. Will continue to monitor the potential over the next few forecast iterations.

Otherwise, this system will extend a cold front southeast through the area Saturday night into Sunday, with some uncertainty remaining on the placement of the front by Sunday.
At this point, odds favor the highest chances of showers and thunderstorms across the southern half of the area, generally along and south of the US-30 corridor.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Main concern for the long term period will be the return of the heat by mid-week. The latest ensemble probabilities depict low to medium chances (20 to 40/50%) for Heat Indices to reach or exceed 100 degrees beginning on Wednesday, mainly across the western half of the area as a strong upper-level ridge builds across the Deep South and expands northwards into the Ohio Valley. Will continue to monitor the developing heat potential over the next several forecast iterations. Given our area being on the periphery of this ridge, will also need to monitor for any organized thunderstorms as instability and northwest bulk shear increase across the Great Lakes.

AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/
MVFR ceilings are beginning to lift to VFR this afternoon across northern Ohio with pockets of MVFR persisting across lakeshore TAF sites. Have all TAF sites lifting to VFR by tonight with another round of MVFR ceilings likely early Friday morning through daybreak. There's a low chance for some light rain showers Friday morning pushing off Lake Erie so continued the VCSH at KCLE and KERI.

A mostly dry cold front will continue to push east across terminals this afternoon and early evening. Gusty westerly to northwesterly winds 12-15 knots sustained with gusts 20-25 knots, 30+ knots at times at KERI, continue through this afternoon. Winds diminish to 10 knots or less from west to east behind the front tonight and will turn northeasterly to easterly by Friday. Winds will generally remain under 8 knots through Friday afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR returning this weekend in scattered showers and thunderstorms. Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms through the middle of next week.

MARINE
Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazards statement remain in effect across the central and eastern basins until 11 PM tonight. Westerly winds 15-25 knots will turn northerly to northeasterly behind a cold front this evening. Elevated onshore flow will keep wave heights of 3-5 feet and a Moderate swim risk across the central basin through tonight. High pressure will build over the region behind the cold front, allowing for northeasterly winds to diminish to 5-10 knots by Friday afternoon. High pressure remains overhead through Friday night before a system approaches the region from the south for the weekend. Winds turn southerly by Saturday morning before flipping northwesterly to northerly Sunday morning as the system moves over the lake. Winds will generally remain between 10-15 knots with wave heights remaining 3 feet or less through the weekend.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for OHZ010>012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ145>149.