Sunrise 6:40 AM   Sunset 8:12 PM Moonrise 2:10 PM   Moonset 3:42 AM

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LEZ146 Expires:202404180215;;918340 Fzus51 Kcle 172102 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 502 pm edt Wed apr 17 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez145-146-180215- vermilion to avon point oh-avon point to willowick oh- 502 pm edt Wed apr 17 2024
.tornado watch 122 in effect until 7 pm edt this evening - .
Tonight - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms early, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this evening. Some Thunderstorms may produce damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes early. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Thursday - West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest less than 10 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday night - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Showers overnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Saturday through Monday.
the water temperature off toledo is 55 degrees, off cleveland 46 degrees, and off erie 48 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 180544 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 144 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front brings showers and storms through the area this evening into early tonight. Brief high pressure Thursday, followed by another cold front late Thursday night into early Friday. Much cooler into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
10PM Update...
A few lingering light showers continue over far eastern Erie and Crawford counties in PA, which will shift east of the area soon.
Once those move out, conditions will remain dry for the rest of the night with temperatures falling into the low to mid 50s. The biggest change with this update is decreasing the winds through the overnight. Winds should remain 10-15 mph, possibly gusting up to 20 mph occasionally.

815PM Update...
The Tornado Watch has been cancelled across the CWA as the severe threat has diminished. Rain showers will continue over NW PA over the next hour before moving east of the area.

Previous Discussion...
Squall line continues to progress east across the region this evening with some tornadic damage. The squall line will sweep east of the region by 01z as a cold frontal boundary moves through. The precipitation will end as the cold front moves east this evening and cooler more stable air will overspread the region. POPS have been cut on the backside of the squall line.

Previous discussion: Destabilization with MLCAPE to 1500J/kg continues ahead of the line of convection moving through the western portion of Ohio at the time of this issuance. Surface dewpoints currently surging into the lower 60s in western Ohio, and expecting winds at the surface to back as the cold front currently moving into Indiana approaches. This will serve to increase the 0-1km helicity ahead of the convection assisting in formation of rotating updrafts. Also have good deep layer shear and dry air punch in the mid levels seen in the water vapor satellite imagery, and ultimately have many ingredients coming together for the severe weather threat unfolding across the region. Expecting a progressive event and efficient tracking of the activity through the CWA in a few hours time with the higher POPs exiting just after 00Z Thursday. One thing to consider with this severe weather threat is with the bowing of the broad scale line of convection if it cuts off some of the southwesterly oriented inflow to the north of the apex. Does not eliminate the threat for storms, but could slightly lessen the severe chances a bit further north.

Upon exit, lower level clouds advect back into the region, a modest cool down ensues, and brief upper level/surface ridging makes its way back into the region for Thursday. Cooler day expected with afternoon breaks in the clouds and a rapidly approaching cold front once again from the west in the continued progressive pattern. This secondary cold front will represent a more significant change of airmass heading into the short term forecast period. POPs enter after 00Z Friday west to east into Friday night.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A strong cold front will bisect the region Friday morning as a broad mid/upper trough swings into the Great Lakes, with an associated closed mid-level low lifting into the James Bay vicinity. This will usher in some late season cold air for the weekend as 850 mb temps fall to -3 to -5 C by Saturday as the trough axis remains across the Great Lakes and the closed low continues to spin over James Bay.
Showers and a few pockets of thunder will exit eastern areas rather quickly Friday morning as the front moves east, leaving most areas dry Friday afternoon. However, the broad cyclonic flow, westerly boundary layer winds across the lake, strong cold air advection, and aforementioned 850 mb temps will lead to enough lake induced instability for lake-effect showers over far NE Ohio and NW PA later Friday into Saturday, so maintained slight chance to chance PoPs there. A limiting factor is dry air and a quick increase in boundary layer shear, so it will not amount to much, but pattern recognition points to light precip hanging on in these areas. Some snow could mix in Friday night into Saturday morning in the highest elevations of southern Erie and northern Crawford Counties. Broad surface high pressure over the Plains and Midwest will finally extend its ridging east enough Saturday afternoon and Saturday night to shut down any lake-effect precip, so have all areas dry by Saturday night.

The main story with this cold spell will be frost/freeze potential.
Highs in the upper 50s/low 60s Friday will only rise into the upper 40s/low 50s Saturday. Lows Friday night should stay up enough to prevent frost due to winds staying in the 10-20 knot range. The coldest spots of NW PA should even stay in the upper 30s given the winds and clouds/precip off the lake. Lows Friday night will range from the upper 30s to low 40s across the region. However, Saturday night could spell trouble as the surface ridging extending into the region leads to decreasing winds and more potential for clearing skies. At this time, lows Saturday night look to range from the low to upper 30s, with the coldest temps in eastern Ohio and interior NW PA, as well as around the central highlands and along the US 30 corridor. With the vegetation really beginning to sprout over the past week, we have begun the Spring frost/freeze program, so headlines are expected Saturday night.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The mid/upper troughing over the Great Lakes and eastern CONUS will gradually relax Sunday through early next week, but the closed low will continue to spin over James Bay keeping a relatively cool WNW flow pattern in place through early to mid week. Broad surface high pressure extending into the Ohio Valley Sunday will gradually move east Monday, reaching the Mid Atlantic coast by Tuesday leading to gradually rebounding temperatures to near to below normal for this time of year. Frost/freeze headlines are possible again Sunday night, especially for eastern Ohio and NW PA. Deterministic and ensemble guidance are in good agreement on a northern stream mid/upper shortwave diving through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday which will reinforce and deepen the longwave troughing over the eastern CONUS by mid week, but timing of this feature varies among the guidance leading to low confidence on the timing of showers. For now, kept the blended PoPs which has chance PoPs arriving late Monday night and Tuesday and continuing into Wednesday.

Highs in the low/mid 50s Sunday will warm into the upper 50s/low 60s Monday and solid low 60s Tuesday. Highs should then cool into the mid 50s to around 60 by Wednesday.

AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/
Showers and thunderstorms have since exited Northern Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Currently VFR across terminals but expect for MVFR cigs generally around 2.5 kft will spread over terminals. General placement looks to remain across terminals along and east of I-71. So a line from KCLE to KMFD and point eastward. These MVFR cigs will then become VFR by late morning/early afternoon. High level clouds move into the area ahead of a cold front that will traverse east on Friday. Begun to mention showers at far western terminals and in the KCLE 30-hour TAF that enter around 6-12Z Friday. Westerly winds 8-12 knots with an occasional gust to 20 knots will continue through tonight. Winds turn light and southerly this afternoon before becoming southeasterly tonight.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible Friday into Saturday in rain.

MARINE
A line of showers and thunderstorms will cross Lake Erie this evening leading to locally higher winds and waves and cloud to ground lightning strikes. Otherwise, relatively quiet marine conditions are expected over the next couple of days with winds and waves below Small Craft criteria. Winds will veer to WSW at 10-15 knots tonight behind the cold front, becoming light and variable by Thursday evening. Winds will then become S to SW Thursday night and increase to 10-15 knots before turning W and increasing to 15-20 knots Friday behind another cold front. This may build waves over 4 feet in the central and eastern basins, so Small Craft headlines are possible Friday. W winds of 15-20 knots look to continue well into Saturday with waves above 4 feet at times, so Small Craft headlines are possible through Saturday. Winds will turn NW and gradually decrease to 10-15 knots Saturday night and Sunday, becoming SW at 5- 10 knots Sunday night and Monday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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