Marine Forecasts

    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

---

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lakewood, OH

   Hourly   EDIT   Help

---

Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH

      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KCLE 110642 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 142 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will briefly build northeast through the Ohio valley across the area tonight. A cold front will push southeast through the Great Lakes into the area on Wednesday. High pressure will quickly return to the area, building east across the region Wednesday night, becoming centered over the east coast Thursday and Thursday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Have updated the snow totals for the overnight to 1 to 3 inches for lakeshore Ashtabula and both Erie PA zones. Updated the Winter Weather Advisory with better wording for overnight totals.

Previous Discussion . A little ripple is showing up in the radar imagery at this time over the western half of Lake Erie. This ripple is the result of a weak trough moving east across the area and will cause the lake effect snow band to shift north over the next few hours. Latest short term models suggest another band will develop along the shore later this evening into the early morning and then the whole thing will shift north of the area by morning. Looking at total snow accumulations in the band of 4 to 6 inches. Some locally higher amounts are possible. Will keep winter weather advisory in effect where it is currently. Starting to see some clearing pushing in from the west at this time and high clouds will continue to push off to the east overnight and will see a gradual reduction in cloud cover over the southern areas. Cold air advection will take place overnight and with clearing will see temperatures in the 20s for lows.

Original Discussion . A weakening surface trough over Lake Erie will attempt to push southward into northern OH and northwest PA late this afternoon into this evening, while pressure rises continue northeastward through the Ohio Valley into the southern Great Lakes. A modest band of snow has formed ahead of this trough over the lake, and is expected to push onshore over the next several hours, perhaps dropping a quick 1-3 inches of snow. Confidence is low on the exact evolution of this snow and lake effect/lake enhancement through tonight across the snow belt. Hi-res guidance continues to depict the surface trough pushing southeast across the snow belt and weakening, with secondary shoreline convergence setting up northeast of Cleveland, which seems to be playing out with latest radar trends. The models depict one or two lake bands becoming dominant and pushing onshore across the snow belt, with several models favoring a band into northern Geauga/Lake and another into Erie PA.

The current evolution on radar is a bit off from the model depictions spatially and timing wise, but generally on the right track. It seems the potential for heaviest snowfall will occur over the next 4-5 hours, with lingering synoptic forcing coinciding with good moisture from 900-750mb. However, dendritic growth will be minimal with the best lift centered much lower in the cloud layer, and some fairly dry air in the lowest 3kft. Instability parameters are marginal as well, with lake induced inversion heights peaking around 8-8.5 kft. After 00Z, drier 925mb air will work south across the lake, which could limit snowfall as well. Overall, kept the forecast fairly similar to the previous, with accumulations centered a touch farther north in the 2-4 inch range through tonight. Some higher amounts up to 5 inches by tomorrow morning are possible in the higher terrain of Erie PA. For now, with lower confidence in the evolution of this snow, will not issue any headlines and will monitor closely for the next several hours to see how the bands are organizing.

Snow bands will diminish and push offshore around/after midnight as boundary layer flow begins to back more southwest, with continued drying of the cloud layer. By tomorrow morning, the flow should keep any bands offshore into western NY through at least midday. An upper vort max and accompanying surface front will quickly drop southeast through the Great Lakes Wednesday morning. This now appears to be a relative glancing blow for the local area, but enough of a cold punch to reactivate lake effect into the local area, mainly northwest PA. A brief shot of 850mb moisture will follow this wave passage, with winds veering a bit more northwest Wednesday night. Dry air looks to quickly work back across the region, so the snow potential should be limited temporally. Currently forecasting an additional 1-3 inches, with the highest amounts in eastern Erie PA. Snow will quickly diminish after midnight as high pressure build across the region.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. The short term begins Thursday with models showing broad high pressure centered over Pennsylvania. To our west, low pressure will be in western Iowa. This low will move northeast to the central Great Lakes and dissipate by Friday morning lifting a warm front northeast through the region as the high moves off the New England coast. Another low will move into the Dakotas. This low will move into the western lakes Friday into Saturday as another disturbance generates a coastal low in New England from the mid Atlantic coast. Moisture will return north into the region Friday with return flow out of the southeastern states with rain chances into mainly eastern Ohio and nwrn PA by Friday afternoon. Moisture deepens from the south Friday night into Saturday. Will have pops increase to likely for the eastern half of the area Friday night and Saturday. Precip may mix with a little snow late on Saturday far west but precip should be mostly rain. Highs Thursday in the mid 30s. Highs Friday and Saturday in the 40s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. By Sunday, models show a dominant surface low over northern New England tracking northeast into Canada. To our west, high pressure will be moving east from Minnesota into Wisconsin. Between the two, a cold front will be forced south through the area during the day Sunday. Models begin to differ Sunday night with the ECMWF continuing to bring cold air in the the region while the GFS begins to warm advect. For now will side more with the ECMWF and continue the threat of mainly lake induced precip nern OH and nwrn PA. The ECMWF does eventually show this warm advection increasing into the area Monday into Tuesday ahead of low pressure moving through the mid Mississippi Valley into the lower Ohio Valley with moisture increasing across the area out of the southeast. Will keep pops in the chance category for now and go with mostly snow showers monday and a mix Tuesday.

AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/. Main concern for the TAF period will be lake effect snow over extreme NE OH and NW PA. A band of moderate to heavy lake effect snow has developed northeast of KCLE and extends into KERI. Variable non-VFR conditions will be present with the snow at KERI over the next several hours with a mix of IFR and perhaps some LIFR. This band will lift north towards day break and conditions will improve to VFR by late morning at KERI. Elsewhere, a ridge of high pressure has allowed for dry air to enter the region and the low clouds have scattered out, leaving just high cirrus overhead. A slight pocket of MVFR was noted at KCAK but this will be short lived.

A secondary cold front will swing through the area this afternoon and bring lower VFR clouds back to the region. Snow and non-VFR is likely to return to KERI with some heavy snow possible. Winds will pick up with gusts to 20 kts with the front.

OUTLOOK. Non-VFR possible Friday night into Saturday with a snow/rain mix to start, before transitioning to all rain.

MARINE. Winds increase by late morning across the east end of the lake with low end gales likely into the afternoon. So with that said we will go ahead and hoist the gale warning now from Conneaut into the NY open waters. The warning will go from 9 am through 7 pm.

Previous Discussion . Will extend the small craft advisory across the western half of Lake Erie through 4am Thursday. Winds this afternoon have remained near the 20 knot range on the western basin and are not expected to decrease significantly overnight before possibly rising a few knots on Wednesday. Would have needed on for Wednesday anyway so will just leave headline up. Also, for now, will continue with the gale watch as is and allow later shifts to get another model run in. At this time, current guidance touches gale force for a few hours from about noon through 22Z or so. For Wednesday night, winds will begin to diminish as high pressure begins to build in from the west. The high will cross the lake Wednesday evening causing winds to drop to under 10 knots by morning. The high will move to our east Thursday as low pressure approaches the western lakes driving southerly flow at 10 to 15 knots. Southerly flow will increase to 10 to 20 knots Thursday night into Friday as the pressure gradient tightens slightly. Winds will remain fairly light through Saturday before increasing Saturday night into Sunday from the west to 15 to 25 knots as deep low pressure moves through New England and high pressure moves into the western lakes.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for OHZ012- 014-089. PA . Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for PAZ001- 002. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LEZ142>148. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for LEZ149. Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ149-169.

SYNOPSIS . Greenawalt NEAR TERM . Greenawalt/Lombardy/Sefcovic SHORT TERM . TK LONG TERM . TK AVIATION . Sefcovic MARINE . TK

---

Weather Reporting Stations

   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH	7 mi	52 min	SW 8.9 G 16	20°F	41°F		1025.9 hPa	6°F
LORO1	23 mi	34 min	WSW 24 G 31	21°F
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH	31 mi	46 min	SSW 15 G 20	20°F	39°F		1025.4 hPa	11°F
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH	41 mi	79 min	SW 4.1	19°F			1026 hPa	9°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH	42 mi	64 min	WSW 11 G 16	19°F			1024.4 hPa (-0.0)
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH	48 mi	94 min	SW 7 G 16	22°F

Wind History for Cleveland, OH

(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

7 AM

8 AM

9 AM

10 AM

11 AM

12 PM

1 PM

2 PM

3 PM

4 PM

5 PM

6 PM

7 PM

8 PM

9 PM

10 PM

11 PM

12 AM

1 AM

2 AM

3 AM

4 AM

5 AM

6 AM

Last 24hr

W22 G28

W22 G27

W21 G26

W22 G28

SW11 G17

W25

W20

W20 G27

W16 G22

W17 G21

SW13 G17

SW12 G20

W19 G25

W19 G24

SW18 G24

W19 G23

W17 G24

W15 G20

SW10 G18

SW9 G15

SW10 G17

SW9 G14

SW7 G11

SW9 G18

1 day ago

S2 G9

SE4 G11

S6 G12

S5 G11

SE5 G10

S8 G16

S7 G13

S10 G15

S5 G12

SW7 G14

SW9 G16

SW7 G12

SW5 G11

SW5 G8

SW6 G11

SW8 G13

W19 G24

W18 G24

W20

W16 G21

W22 G27

W19 G24

W20

W22

2 days ago

S5 G11

SE3 G12

S5 G15

S6 G16

S6 G12

S8 G13

SW7 G15

S6 G14

S4 G13

SW6 G14

S4 G16

S6 G13

S5 G13

S5 G13

S6 G11

S6 G13

S6 G14

S4 G12

S5 G11

SE3 G9

S5 G10

S5 G10

S4 G9

S3 G9

---

Airport Reports

    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.

Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Cleveland, Burke Lakefront Airport, OH	4 mi	71 min	SW 14	10.00 mi	Fair	20°F	8°F	60%	1026.8 hPa
Cleveland Hopkins International Airport, OH	8 mi	73 min	SW 9	10.00 mi	Fair	19°F	9°F	65%	1027.9 hPa
Cleveland / Cuyahoga, OH	16 mi	69 min	SW 9	10.00 mi	Fair	18°F	8°F	67%	1025.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBKL

Wind History from BKL (wind in knots)

8 AM

9 AM

10 AM

11 AM

12 PM

1 PM

2 PM

3 PM

4 PM

5 PM

6 PM

7 PM

8 PM

9 PM

10 PM

11 PM

12 AM

1 AM

2 AM

3 AM

4 AM

5 AM

6 AM

7 AM

Last 24hr

SW17

W20

SW18 G24

SW17

SW19 G23

SW17

SW19 G24

SW15

SW15 G21

SW14

SW14 G22

SW20 G26

SW20 G25

SW20 G27

SW15

SW16

SW15

SW14 G22

SW14

SW16

SW13

SW9

SW14

SW14 G20

1 day ago

S15

S15

SE14

SE12 G21

S13 G23

S18 G23

S16

S15 G23

S14 G20

S16 G24

S15

S10

S12

SW13 G22

SW16

SW19 G27

W18 G28

SW16

SW14 G21

W19 G29

W17 G27

W21

W22

W21

2 days ago

S17 G25

S18 G25

S15 G23

S16

S12 G21

S15 G22

S18 G24

S16 G21

S16 G21

S14 G24

S15 G26

S13 G26

S13

S12

S13 G18

S13 G20

S15

SE14

SE13

S12

S12

SE12

S15

S16

---

Tide / Current Tables for

   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help

---

Tide / Current Tables for

   EDIT      (on/off)   Help

---

Weather Map

       (on/off)   Help Weather Map

---

GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

---

Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (7,2,3,4)

      (on/off)   Help

---

Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH

   (on/off)   Help

---

Cookie Policy: This webiste uses cookies to save your settings. No personal information is saved. You can disable cookies in your browser if you like but it is not recommended for this site. I do not sell cookies. Go to a bakery for that. In fact I do not sell anything. To disable cookies from L-36.com, please refer to the Help button in your browser. Privacy Policy: I do not sell or share any user data or anything else for that matter. I do not keep site logs longer than I need to to keep bad actors off the site. Basically, I delete them after looking at them. If you are subject to CCPA, Google ads on this site will not be based on your past behavior so you will likely not see an ad for a lawn mower just because you looked for one at a big box website. I do not believe this site is subject to CCPA but I am doing what I can to follow the guidelines anyway. Disclaimer: The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.