Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lakewood, OH

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Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 092327 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 727 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2020

. 00z Aviation TAF and Evening Forecast Update .

SYNOPSIS. A secondary surge of cold air will flow across the region through the evening. A trough of low pressure will then linger over the area through Friday. High pressure builds into the region for Saturday. Low pressure will develop over the central Plains on Saturday night and move northeast to the Great Lakes region for Sunday and Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. Gusty showers with small have have developed as expected over the area. There will be isolated/scattered thunder through sunset. Current thinking is that any hail should stay smaller than a nickel. Winds will also increase in the wake of the showers with a few gusts approaching advisory levels. For now have capped gusts off at 45 mph.

As the cooler air flows over the lake we transition to a lake effect scenario this evening into the overnight. Rain will transition to snow. The higher terrain will see this transition occur first. Some accumulations are expected in the higher terrain, especially across inland NW PA. The lake effect snow showers will then continue into Friday afternoon before gradually tapering off across NW PA into Friday evening. The higher terrain of inland NW PA may see 1 to 3 inches of snow overnight. We will need to monitor for higher amounts if any organized bands develop off the lake. It will be unseasonably cool tonight with lows ranging from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs on Friday will vary from west to east with middle 40s west and mid 30s east.

High pressure takes control by Friday night with dry conditions expected. Lows should dip to the 20s for a large portion of the area.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. High pressure will expand to the East Coast on Saturday with southwest flow developing on the back side of the high. This will start a warming trend with temperatures approaching normal with thickening cloud cover through the day on Saturday. By Sunday an upper level wave lifts out of the southern Plains with surface low pressure tracking up the Mississippi Valley towards the Central Great Lakes. A warm front will lift north across the area Sunday afternoon into Sunday night with most areas seeing temperatures exceed 60 degrees. This will bring a chance of rain moving up from the south but at this time it looks like most of the rain does not arrive until Sunday night. A few thunderstorms may also be possible, especially in advance of the cold front. Raised min temperatures for Sunday night with mild conditions in advance of the cold front.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Surface low pressure expected to deepen to around 978mb over northern Lake Huron by Monday morning. This will wrap a strong cold front northeast across the area during the morning. Raised winds in the forecast and may end up needing a wind advisory on Monday. Falling temperatures

Broad upper level trough will arrive for the remainder of the extended forecast with below normal temperatures and highs in the 40s. This will tend to be a drier pattern with only a few light showers expected through mid-week.

AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/. Gusty winds and scattered lake effect rain and snow showers will be the primary aviation concerns this evening through Friday. West to northwest winds will remain elevated between 15 and 25 knots with gusts likely up to 30 or 35 knots at times through the next 24 hours. Mainly VFR ceilings will continue through the TAF period for western and northwestern Ohio. We will likely see scattered lake effect rain showers turning into snow showers this evening through Friday morning for the primary Snowbelt areas and downwind of Lake Erie. YNG, CAK, and ERI will likely have the greatest aviation impacts with the lake effect snow showers tonight into Friday morning. MVFR ceilings and drops in visibilities will be likely with any burst of LES snow showers. The snow showers will decrease late in the TAF period and mostly VFR conditions may return but some lake effect cloudiness could still be possible.

OUTLOOK. Non-VFR possible into Friday evening with lake effect across NW PA. Non-VFR also possible Sunday into Monday with showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE. A trough will cross the lake this evening with a secondary cold front and increasing winds arriving behind it. Westerly winds to 30 knots are expected this evening and may briefly approach gale force. The core of stronger winds will shift east across the lake through Friday morning. A high end Small Craft Advisory is in effect with gusts to 40 knots likely. Waves of 4 to 7 feet are expected on the western basin with 6 to 9 feet on the eastern half of the lake. Winds will start to decrease Friday afternoon with Small Craft Advisories in effect through 4 AM Saturday.

High pressure will build east across the region Saturday, reaching the East Coast on Sunday. A warm front will lift north across the lake on Sunday ahead of low pressure tracking out of the southern Plains. The low will undergo rapid deepening as it moves northeast across the Central Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday with strong winds along and behind a cold front on Monday. Preliminary guidance suggests a Gale Warning may be needed by Monday but will need to keep an eye on trends over the weekend.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EDT Friday for PAZ002. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ142>149.

SYNOPSIS . MM NEAR TERM . Griffin/MM SHORT TERM . KEC LONG TERM . KEC AVIATION . Griffin MARINE . KEC

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH	7 mi	46 min	W 22 G 33	44°F	49°F		1002 hPa	30°F
LORO1	23 mi	46 min	WNW 36 G 41	43°F
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH	31 mi	46 min	S 26 G 28	43°F	54°F		1001.4 hPa	29°F
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH	41 mi	91 min	W 6	44°F			1003 hPa	27°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH	42 mi	76 min	W 24 G 32	43°F			1001 hPa (+1.0)
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH	48 mi	106 min	WNW 31 G 39	66°F

Wind History for Cleveland, OH

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1 day ago

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Cleveland, Burke Lakefront Airport, OH	4 mi	23 min	W 31 G 42	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy and Windy	44°F	28°F	53%	1002.2 hPa
Cleveland Hopkins International Airport, OH	8 mi	25 min	W 20 G 31	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy and Breezy	43°F	25°F	49%	1003.7 hPa
Cleveland / Cuyahoga, OH	16 mi	31 min	W 13 G 22	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	39°F	26°F	61%	1001.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBKL

Wind History from BKL (wind in knots)

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W26 G38

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1 day ago

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (20,4,5,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH

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