Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lakewood, OH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
6:50 AM Update...
Forecast remains unchanged this morning as an area of rain showers persists across northern Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Hi- res guidance continues to hint at an area of higher QPF, 1-1.5+ inches, across portions of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania through tonight. Will need to monitor for for any localized flooding from this heavy rainfall.

Previous discussion...
Stalled front draped across the area will continue to impact the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic regions through the near term.
The primary concern with the stalled boundary continues to be heavy rainfall and localized flooding as PWATs are expected to range between 1.7 and 1.9 inches, well above the 90th percentile for mid- June, combined with weak cloud layer flow. HRRR neighborhood probabilities hint at a swath of higher QPF mainly along and north of US-30 given the placement of the stalled front. Peak hourly rates will likely occur this morning through early afternoon with HRRR 1hr maximum QPF amounts ranging between 0.75 and 1.25 inches. Very isolated chance of diurnally driven thunderstorms developing this afternoon and early evening across southeastern zones. Not expecting any severe thunderstorms given the lack of instability but some sub-severe wet thunderstorm downbursts are possible in any stronger storm that develops. Cloud cover will keep high temperatures in the lower 70s today. Lows will settle in the low 60s tonight.

The front will begin to push south out of the region this evening which will allow for showers to exit from northwest to southeast through tonight. A brief surface high builds over the region from the north on Sunday bringing dry weather for end the near term period. Highs will be slightly warmer on Sunday as they rise into the mid to upper 70s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A quasi-zonal mid level flow will continue into early next week. A stubborn stationary frontal boundary will continue to be around to start off the new week. On Monday, the stalled front will be near the central Ohio area and bring a chance for scattered showers and storms mainly in the afternoon. High temperatures Monday will range from the upper 70s over northwest Pennsylvania to the lower 80s over northwest Ohio. The frontal boundary will lift northward as a warm front by Tuesday. With a moisture rich atmosphere on lingering around Tuesday, POPs will increase for scattered showers and thunderstorm during the afternoon. Tuesday's afternoon high temperatures will be a little warmer in the lower to middle 80s.
Overnight low temperatures will be warm as well in the lower to upper 60s for early next week.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The middle of the week looks to remain somewhat unsettled with very warm weather and chances for showers and thunderstorms. The area will be south of a warm front that will be draped across southern Ontario by the middle of next week. A shortwave trough will move across the Northern Plains region into the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. Scattered showers and storms will again be around Wednesday with high temperatures into the lower to mid 80s. The shortwave trough will track across the Great Lakes region on Thursday dragging a cold front into the Ohio Valley. Thursday will be the day with the highest POPs for showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures will be held down in the upper 70s to lower 80s on Thursday. Towards the end of next week, the weather pattern will shift to a northwest flow in between an upper level trough to the east and an upper level ridge to the west. A drier and seasonable warm weather pattern is expected by the end of next week.

AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/
IFR to LIFR conditions continue across terminals early this morning. The general trend is for LIFR ceilings to lift to IFR through late this morning with IFR lifting to MVFR by this afternoon and early evening. Some IFR cigs and MVFR visibilities may return tonight across inland locations. Rain showers will continue to impact terminals through this afternoon and early evening before diminishing by tonight. Maintained VCTS mention at KMFD/KCAK/KYNG where confidence, albeit fairly low, is highest in any isolated thunderstorm this afternoon. By the end of the TAF window ceilings may improve to high-end MVFR to low- end VFR, especially closer to the lakeshore as high pressure builds overhead from the north.

Generally northerly to northeasterly winds 5-10 knots will continue through the TAF period with light and variable flow anticipated across inland locations.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected with periodic showers and thunderstorms this weekend through Wednesday, especially Sunday afternoon and again on Tuesday through Wednesday.

MARINE
A frontal boundary has become nearly stationary south of the lake across central Ohio. Northeast winds 10 to 20 knots will be around today into tonight. A Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazard Statement for rip currents also remain in effect today. Waves will be 2 to 4 feet due to the persistent northeasterly flow. Northeast winds will continue through Sunday 5 to 15 knots. By Monday, the northeast winds will weaken to 5-10 knots as the frontal boundary shifts closer to southern Ohio. Winds will become south-southwest 5- 10 knots on Tuesday when a warm front pushes northward across the lake. Southerly southwesterly winds will continue Wednesday and Thursday 10 to 20 knots.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for OHZ007- 009>012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ143>149.