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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lakewood, OH

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Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 210512 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1212 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2020

. 06z Aviation Forecast Update .

SYNOPSIS. High pressure over the northern Plains will gradually shift eastward reaching central Ohio by Tuesday evening. The high will shift to the east coast by Wednesday night. The next area of low pressure will attempt to develop near the Gulf Coast States on Thursday and may move to near the Ohio River Valley Friday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. More minor adjustments with the mid evening update, but the bulk of the forecast remains on track. Cloud cover remains tricky, with upstream Lake Michigan cloud cover already working back into the Toledo area. This cloud cover should slowly work southeast overnight across the rest of the western half of the area.

Original discussion . For tonight the snow showers will linger but believe inversion heights will fall overnight as drier air continues to filter across the region. The flow should begin to direct the remaining snow showers up the lakeshore toward extreme NE OH/NW PA. Any accumulations should be light with a fluffy 1-2 inches possible at a couple locations. The cloud cover forecast is difficult and will impact the low temperatures. Current thinking keeps cloud cover thickest across the central and eastern CWA. Locations that clear will see lows approach 10 degrees. Elsewhere teens will be common.

The snow showers should finally end by Tuesday afternoon across NW PA as high pressure takes control of the region. Cloud cover will be slow to decrease with some low level moisture trapped under the high. Most locations should at least see some glimpses of sun, most numerous across the west. Highs warm to the middle to upper 20s at most locations with a few locations across the west touching 30 degrees.

High pressure will control the region Tuesday night. Clouds should thin across the area with another cold night expected. Lows should dip into the teens, maybe slightly cooler south.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. An eastward-moving high pressure ridge aloft crests over our CWA on Wednesday as the associated surface high drifts over Pennsylvania. Flow aloft then becomes increasingly southwesterly over our region Wednesday night through Thursday night as the aforementioned ridge begins exiting our CWA to the east. Simultaneously, an eastward- moving longwave trough deepens over the central U.S. and vicinity, with its embedded mid- to upper-level low becoming centered over Missouri by the end of the period.

The above pattern will likely provide us with fair weather Wednesday through Thursday. Isentropic lift aloft may generate a few snow showers along/near the I-75 corridor Thursday night. However, little or no snow accumulation is expected. Temperatures moderate via warm- air advection and will trend above-normal through the period. Highs in the mid to upper 30's Wednesday afternoon should be followed by lows in the 20's Wednesday night. Afternoon highs on Thursday should primarily reach the lower to mid 40's, while low temperatures should dip into the mid 20's to lower 30's Thursday night.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As the aforementioned longwave trough moves eastward, its nearly vertically-stacked low pressure center should move from Missouri around daybreak Friday to near the Mid-Ohio Valley by daybreak Saturday. This nearly vertically-stacked low should then become centered in vicinity of the Gulf of Maine by daybreak Monday. Given models are coming into better agreement with the track and evolution of this low, it appears the low will track just south of our CWA, keeping our CWA within the low pressure system's cool sector. Accordingly, periods of precipitation via isentropic lift Friday into Saturday morning should transition to wraparound precip later Saturday. Precip should then end from west to east Sunday morning through evening as high pressure at the surface and aloft builds from the west. The precip should primarily fall as rain, but rain should mix with or change to wet snow during the cooler evening through early morning hours. Low temperatures should be in the lower to mid 30's Friday night and Saturday night. Afternoon highs should primarily reach the 40's on Friday, while Saturday and Sunday should have afternoon highs in the upper 30's to lower 40's.

Fair weather should return to our entire CWA Sunday night and Monday as high pressure at the surface and aloft continues building from the west. Forecast low temperatures are in the mid 20's to lower 30's for Sunday night. Monday afternoon highs should reach the upper 30's to lower 40's.

AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/. The only concern for this TAF update will be MVFR ceilings with lake effect clouds down wind of Lake Erie impact CLE, CAK, YNG, and ERI through this morning. There will also be scattered but very light snow showers possible for CLE, CAK, and YNG through the morning with brief 6sm to maybe 5sm visibilites at times. The rest of area will generally be VFR through the TAF period. Winds will not be an impact with light and variable winds becoming Westerly to southwesterly through the period around 5 to 8 knots.

OUTLOOK. Non-VFR possible Thursday night into Friday in light snow.

MARINE. Quiet marine conditions are expected the rest of today through Tuesday morning as winds back from northwesterly to westerly. These winds should tend to be no stronger than 10 to 15 knots. Winds should then back to southwesterly and strengthen slightly to about 15 to 22 knots Tuesday afternoon through daybreak Wednesday. During this period, waves could build to as high as 3 to 5 feet and a Small Craft Advisory may be needed, especially east of Willowick.

Quieter conditions should return to all of Lake Erie later Wednesday morning through Saturday. Winds should back from southwesterly to southerly later Wednesday morning through Thursday morning. Southeasterly winds are forecast Thursday afternoon/evening before becoming easterly on Friday. Winds should then tend to be easterly to northeasterly on Saturday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . MM NEAR TERM . Greenawalt/Griffin SHORT TERM . Jaszka LONG TERM . Jaszka AVIATION . Griffin MARINE . Jaszka

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH	7 mi	52 min	N 9.9 G 13	24°F	38°F		1033.8 hPa	10°F
LORO1	23 mi	46 min	N 8 G 11
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH	31 mi	46 min	NW 12 G 14	24°F	33°F		1033.6 hPa	15°F
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH	41 mi	91 min	SSW 1.9	18°F			1034 hPa	13°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH	42 mi	26 min	NNW 7 G 9.9	23°F			1032.5 hPa
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH	48 mi	46 min	NNW 8.9 G 12	32°F

Wind History for Cleveland, OH

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N14 G17

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W24 G30

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W21 G28

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SE7 G13

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S7 G11

SW10 G21

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W27 G33

W22 G27

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W18 G23

W27 G33

W32

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Cleveland, Burke Lakefront Airport, OH	4 mi	23 min	NNW 11	10.00 mi	Overcast	25°F	12°F	60%	1034.8 hPa
Cleveland Hopkins International Airport, OH	8 mi	25 min	W 5	10.00 mi	Overcast	22°F	15°F	75%	1035.8 hPa
Cleveland / Cuyahoga, OH	16 mi	21 min	N 5	10.00 mi	Overcast	22°F	11°F	65%	1033.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBKL

Wind History from BKL (wind in knots)

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W25 G35

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SE8

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SE12 G17

SE21 G28

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SE16 G22

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SE13 G26

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S26 G32

SE23 G33

S21 G29

S20 G29

S21 G31

S18 G27

SW15 G20

SW22 G38

SW23 G31

SW28 G37

SW16 G24

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W22 G29

SW25 G33

SW23 G29

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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (1,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH

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