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LEZ146 Avon Point To Willowick Oh-willowick To Geneva-on-the Lake Oh- Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh-conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 302 Pm Est Sun Dec 10 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through late Monday night...
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest. Rain showers likely early, then a chance of rain showers late this evening. A chance of rain and snow showers after midnight. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. A chance of snow and rain showers in the morning, then a chance of snow showers with a slight chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Monday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. Mostly cloudy in the evening, then clearing. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Sunny. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Wednesday through Friday.
the water temperature off toledo is 43 degrees, off cleveland 45 degrees, and off erie 43 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 102006 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 306 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will move through the region tonight and a residual trough will settle across the area for Monday. High pressure will build from the south for Monday night into Tuesday. Another cold front will enter northeast of the area for Tuesday night into Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
All attention this afternoon is on a front located across southern Lower Michigan that will continue southeast toward the forecast area for this evening. The front is largely inactive across SE Michigan with some light rain/snow but more snow activity is located over SW Michigan with the lake enhancement.
Expect some better ignition of snow with the front crossing Lake Erie and have PoPs increasing to likely/categorical in NE OH/NW PA after dark. Snow chances seem more fleeting elsewhere and have a slight chance to chance mention.

With this forecast cycle, the trend in the total lake effect or lake enhanced snow seems to be down compared to the last 2-3 cycles. It is becoming more evident that the deeper moisture once expected across the region tonight into Monday is less present with the cold front and there could only be a brief window tonight with barely enough moisture into the DGZ to get some more perky snow showers. Otherwise, the moisture in the atmosphere seems very shallow, confined to the sfc-850 mb layer.
Some lake induced instability remains with temperatures at 850 mb of -8 to -10 degrees C and lake surface temperatures around 6 C, but this isn't the most favorable amount of lake instability.
In the end, the flavor of the forecast is just some light snow showers for 12 hours late tonight into Monday for extreme NE OH and NW PA. The snow forecast has been knocked back an inch or two in this region. The best accumulations will be in interior Erie County, PA, where the placement of the Lake Huron connection will likely sit and there will be help with the higher terrain of the hills in the eastern portion of the county. There could be up to 4 inches of snow here, but overall, the forecast seems to be a more widespread 2-3 inches for the zone and have opted against a Winter Weather Advisory with this package. Elsewhere, there could be some scattered lake clouds and light snow with origins off Lake Michigan or Lake Erie (with help from the terrain of the hills of North Central Ohio) but nothing incredibly notable for snow accumulations expected.
Temperatures through the period will not be out of the norm for the start of the 2nd week of December with highs and lows in the 30s.

A low level ridge and surface high pressure will build into the region on Monday night and bring drier air and backing flow to the region. This will shut down any remaining snow showers across the region. Clearing conditions will allow for temperatures to drop into the 20s for Monday night.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
High pressure continues to build east across the region Tuesday with dry weather anticipated through at least Tuesday evening. Cyclonic flow develops aloft Tuesday night into Wednesday with a series of troughs and surface cold fronts pivoting across the CWA through Wednesday. Generally expect dry frontal passages due to significant dry air in the low to mid levels, but there may be sufficient moisture and lake-induced instability in far NW PA for isolated light lake-enhanced rain/snow showers with very little (if any snow accumulation) Tuesday night into Wednesday. Maintained slight chance PoPs for this area for Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon, but it's possible that all locations remain dry. A strong surface high and upper ridge build over the local area Wednesday night, resulting in widespread dry weather.

Expect highs in the 40s Tuesday with cooling temperatures due to cold air advection on Wednesday; highs should only be in the 30s.
Overnight lows will be in the 20s each night, but locations near the lakeshore may be a touch warmer in the lower 30s Tuesday night and a few inland locations may dip into the teens Wednesday night.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The aforementioned high and upper ridge anchor over the region through at least Friday and dry weather will persist through the end of the workweek. Still some uncertainty in the synoptic setup over the weekend, but an upper trough may move across the region Saturday, which could result in the next chance of precipitation.
Temperatures moderate during the long term period with highs in the lower 40s THursday rising to the mid to upper 40s Friday and Saturday.

AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/
A cold front will approach the region later today and bring a band of rain/snow that will transition quickly to all snow with the cold air advection. Ceilings ahead of the front are already widespread MVFR but ceilings may continue lower below extra fuel categories. With the main band of snow, expect some trend to IFR with ceilings and visibility, especially the eastern half of the area. The event will transition to widespread lake effect snow showers and clouds and continued periods of MVFR and perhaps some IFR will be possible with the lake effect. Winds will primarily be northwest with some gusts in the terminals immediate downwind of Lake Erie. Low level ridging will start to build in toward the end of the period and backing winds should start to clear out the snow and lower ceilings. Some sites will trend to VFR by the end of the period with westerly flow, but MVFR should still be around for several locations for Monday afternoon and evening.

Outlook...Lingering non-VFR will be expected across NE OH/NW PA on Monday afternoon and evening. A cold front may bring some non-VFR ceilings on Tuesday night into Wednesday for extreme NE OH/NW PA.

MARINE
Unsettled marine conditions persist through the next several days ('tis the season!) with Small Craft Advisories likely continuing through at least the first half of the week. West winds 15 to 20 knots early this evening will shift to the northwest tonight and continue through Monday with winds increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the open waters of the central basin Monday morning. Although winds gradually become southwesterly Monday evening into Tuesday, wind speeds increase as strong high pressure builds over the region and a cold front approaches from the northwest Tuesday which will likely lead to an extension of the current Small Craft Advisory. Winds will likely increase to around 20 knots in the nearshore zones and the open waters may reach 25 to 30 knots, especially in the central and eastern basin towards the border of the Canadian waters. Wind direction should be too southwesterly for any low water concerns in the western basin, but may need to keep an eye on forecast water levels at Toledo if guidance trends a bit more westerly. The passage of a cold front will allow winds to shift to the west/northwest and diminish to 15 to 20 knots Tuesday night into Wednesday, but headlines will likely persist due to onshore flow.

Calmer marine conditions may arrive by Wednesday night or early Thursday as winds diminish to 10 to 15 knots, but winds may once again increase as flow becomes southwesterly and increases slightly in response to warm air advection.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for LEZ144.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for LEZ145.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ146>149.

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