Sunrise 5:27 AM   Sunset 8:01 PM Moonrise 11:14 AM   Moonset 1:38 AM

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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 1005 Pm Edt Tue May 14 2024
Overnight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 4 seconds and se 1 foot at 7 seconds. Patchy fog with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Wed - SE winds around 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 foot or less. Wave detail: S 1 foot at 5 seconds and se 1 foot at 8 seconds, becoming S 1 foot at 4 seconds and se 1 foot at 8 seconds. Patchy fog. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning. Wed night - E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft after midnight. Wave detail: E 1 foot at 2 seconds and se 1 foot at 6 seconds, becoming S 5 ft at 10 seconds and E 2 ft at 3 seconds. Patchy fog. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Thu - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Wave detail: S 6 ft at 10 seconds and E 3 ft at 4 seconds. Showers likely. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Thu night - NE winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Wave detail: se 6 ft at 8 seconds and S 5 ft at 9 seconds. A chance of showers. Fri and Fri night - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: se 5 ft at 8 seconds and ne 2 ft at 4 seconds. Sat through Sun night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.

ANZ200 1005 Pm Edt Tue May 14 2024
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters - High pres off the mid atlc seaboard will maintain modest ssw wind through Wed. A low pres should move E from the mid atlc coast Wed night into Thu, shifting winds to the se to E across the waters. This low pres slowly moves farther out to sea through Sat. Weak high pres expected across the waters for Sun.

FXUS61 KOKX 150227 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1027 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure develops along a frontal boundary tonight and moves towards the region on Wednesday. The low will move south of long Island Wednesday evening and becomes nearly stationary Wednesday night into Thursday morning before starting to move away from the region late Thursday. Weak high pressure on Friday will be followed by another frontal system and potential wave of low pressure over the weekend. High pressure then builds in for early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
With light rain showers across portions of western Suffolk county have increased probabilities farther east into late tonight, as pockets of light rain continue across western LI, NYC, NE NJ, and the Lower Hudson Valley. This area moves little the first half of the night, trying to overcome dry low-levels.
The column is expected to moisten up overnight as an upper level shortwave approaches and surface low pressure develops south of the region. This low will slowly move towards the region overnight. Will not mention any thunderstorms in the forecast with the environment becoming more stable. The best chances for showers overnight will remain across NYC and points west.
Overnight lows fall into the 50s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
As low pressure continues to approaches from the south on Wednesday, and eventually moves south of Long Island Wednesday evening. The low will become nearly stationary or meander south of the area into early Thursday morning, before finally moving away from the region Thursday afternoon.

This is a change from the 00z guidance. The 00z NAM forecast had showed the area mainly dry with low pressure passing further south. The new 12z NAN has the low further north, resulting in a rather wet period Wednesday into early Thursday. Forecast will now reflect this trend, with likely POPs overspreading the area on Wednesday and remains likely into early Thursday, before slowly tapering off Thursday as the low slowly starts to move further away from the region.

As the low approaches on Wednesday, expect most of the shower activity to becomes more of a stratiform rain and continue into Thursday. The rain appears to be mainly light but over a 24-36 hour period, rainfall amounts are expected to range between a quarter and three quarters of an inch.

With cloud cover and rain expected expect less of a diurnal temperature range with a more maritime airmass developing. Highs Wednesday and Thursday mostly in the 60s while lows each night are mostly in the 50s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Another system very much like the one preceding it midweek will potentially impact the area over the weekend. However, there is quite a bit of spread in the globals with the southern branch closed low as it moves near the Mid Atlantic coast at the end of the weekend and offshore early next week. This seems partly due to the interaction of a northern stream shortwave trough lifting across the Great Lakes Friday and into eastern Canada over the weekend. While the two streams remain separate, their influence on one another will determine the placement of the upper low. The 12Z ECMWF takes the upper low and shears it off with the bulk of the energy moving into the Southeast U.S. The GFS and Canadian have the low track much farther north with the potential for the area to get into the better forcing just north of its track. The ECMWF is a mainly dry forecast with surface ridging remaining in place. Thus, the NBM was followed with some adjustments based on the aforementioned operational run and the latest consensus forecast. This gives the area increasing chances of rain late Friday night into Saturday night before lowering on Sunday. On the front and back ends of the forecast, Friday and Monday, expect high pressure. Thus, there is quite a bit of uncertainty in the forecast over the weekend. There is good reason to expect changes in the forecast with subsequent issuances.

Highs during the period will be closer to normal Friday and Monday, but several degrees below over the weekend due to the chances of rain. This could very well change due to the differences previously mentioned in the low track. Lows will be on the mild side due to a prolonged period of cloud cover forecast.

AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A low develops along a warm front off the North Carolina tonight and then slowly deepens and moves northward, to near the Delmarva by Wednesday evening.

Low confidence forecast with timing of lowering conditions through the overnight. Also uncertain of ceiling heights.

Generally VFR with lowering conditions to MVFR overnight and IFR late overnight into Wednesday morning. Scattered showers continue mainly at the NYC metro terminals and north and west.
Showers become more likely overnight and continue through Wednesday. KGON will remain VFR into Wednesday morning then lower to MVFR with rain developing around midday.

Light southerly flow becomes light and variable before becoming SE Wednesday morning and increasing to around 10 kt. Winds continue to back to the E and then NE through the day, and increasing to around 15kt, mainly along the coast.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible as cigs lower tonight and Wednesday. Low confidence in timing of IFR cigs late tonight into Wednesday.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday night: IFR to LIFR in rain, fog, and stratus.

Thursday: MVFR, possibly improving to VFR late in the day. A chance of showers. NE winds G20kt.

Friday: VFR. Slight chance of a shower late.

Saturday and Sunday: IFR/MVFR possible. Chance of showers. SE winds G15-20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Conditions are forecast to remain below SCA thresholds on all waters through Wednesday. For Wednesday night and Thursday, SCA conditions become likely on the ocean waters as well as NY Harbor and the South Shore Bays. For the ocean, expect winds and seas to build to SCA levels. For the Harbor and south Shore bays, expecting gusts to at least reach 2 5 kt for part of this period. Lesser confidence of reaching SCA levels on the remainder of the other waters, so no headlines expected there at this time.

A weakening easterly flow Thursday night into Friday will result in diminishing winds and seas. There is the potential for marginal SCA gusts near 25kt on the ocean Thursday night. SCA seas on the ocean are likely to linger into Saturday and possibly longer depending on the track of low pressure over the weekend. The non-ocean waters are forecast to remain below SCA through the period.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic problems are expected through the beginning of next week.

Rainfall in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame will generally remain fairly light with amounts on average between 0.25 and 0.75 inches.
Can not rule out a few isolated higher amounts with Long Island being the best spot to see those higher values.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Wednesday to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ338-345-350-353-355.

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