Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Merritt Park, NY

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
The forecast remains on track through tonight.

Vigorous northern stream closed low slides east from Quebec and through the Canadian Maritimes, while southern upper ridging builds back towards the region.

Canadian high pressure noses in tonight, but may not have the most ideal radiational cooling conditions due to a fair amount of high clouds. They are initially thin, but look to thicken up heading into the second half of the night. Frost looks unlikely as temperatures should remain high enough where the growing season has begun. Temps tonight will range from the middle to upper 30s inland and the 40s elsewhere.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A vigorous closed upper low over the SW US lifts into the upper Great Lakes on Monday. At the surface, a resultant low pressure system takes a similar track, sliding NE through the Great Lakes, with its associated warm front lifting thru Monday, followed by occluded/cold front approaching Monday night.

Strengthening return SE flow develops Monday as high pressure slides offshore. Maritime flow off mid 40 degree waters, and developing/ne advecting stratus under a strong low-level inversion and elevated warm frontal passage, will likely result in temps running a few degrees below seasonable across the region on Monday (mid 50s along southern and eastern coasts to around 60 interior). NBM deterministic, generally in the lowest 25th quartile, still looks good based on above.

Some hi res guidance continues to hint as the potential for a few showers or sprinkles late Monday AM with an elevated warm frontal passage, especially inland, but soundings are rather dry with ridging surface and aloft, so not expecting much out of this activity. LLJ strengthens ahead of approaching frontal system, with surface warm front approaching and entering the region Monday Night. Modest theta e advection and lift over this boundary will bring potential for scattered showers Monday night. Limited forcing and moisture, and lack of instability, will keep QPF light, generally at or under a tenth of an inch.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Key Messages:

* Tuesday will be the warmest day of the week (mid-70s/low-80s).

* Fair weather under high pressure Wed-Thu.

* A frontal system Fri-Sat will bring rain chances. Slight chances for thunderstorms on Sat.

* Cooler temps (near average) return by Sunday with dry weather.

A line of spotty showers along a prefrontal trough quickly exit east Tuesday morning, leaving things dry starting Tuesday midday. We'll remain warm-sectored until the actual cold front approaches and passes through Tuesday evening into Tuesday night.

Tuesday into Tuesday night we'll remain under mainly zonal flow aloft, but both 500mb heights and 850mb temps will remain anomalously high. Under light to occasionally breezy westerly flow Wednesday, highs may climb into middle to upper 70s throughout much of the CWA Some areas of urbanized NE NJ could reach the lower 80s.
Coastal sections of Long Island an southern Connecticut (especially towards the east) may only reach the lower 70s to lower 60s given the nearby marine influence.

The cold front will move through Tuesday night, but does not appear particularly strong. Despite high pressure building in behind the front into Tuesday night, may continue to see cloud cover (at least partly cloudy) given synoptic lift from our location within the right entrance region of a small jet streak to our north. THis should further weaken and move off Wednesday with high pressure strengthening, so expecting mainly sunshine as the day progresses on Wednesday.

High confidence in a dry period Wednesday through Friday given high pressure at the surface should be centered over the region with a subtle ridge aloft with heights aloft being anomalously high. Winds should be light during this period under a weak pressure gradient with temperatures close to or slightly above average with daily highs in the lower 60s to middle 70s. Given the colder ocean waters and light synoptic flow, as well as sunny to mostly sunny skies, could see sea breezes occur Wednesday through Friday. This would keep daily highs to just the 60s on Long Island and coastal Connecticut.

High pressure moves off shore and exits late Friday into Friday night in response to an approaching frontal system. A weak trough will dig into the Great Lakes on Friday then strengthen and become a close upper-low in NE Canada by Saturday. A low at the surface with develop with this trough over the Great Lakes on Friday, then track with it into Quebec on Saturday, strengthening as it tracks eastward in Canada.

12Z global guidance appears to be in agreement on placement with this low with only small discrepancies in timing of the associated warm and cold fronts. This low is expected to bring a warm front through late Friday into Friday night followed by a sharp cold front Saturday late afternoon or evening.

Rain showers may be spotty to scattered in coverage following the warm front late Friday into Friday night. Then a final line of rain showers will develop along and pass with the cold front Saturday.
Added a slight chance for thunderstorms on Saturday. COnfidence is low in thunderstorms occurring, but given we'll be warm-sectored prior to the cold front on Saturday, we could see some thunderstorms develop in the area of greatest lift, focused along the cold front.
Model guidance is split on if we'll have enough instability for this. The 12Z ECMWF seems to have good amounts of MUCAPE ahead of the cold front while the 12Z GFS has none. Confidence in the chance for thunderstorms will increase as the event nears.

Following the cold front, clouds will clear west to east Saturday night into Sunday as high pressure builds in from the west behind the exiting cold front and cold air advection occurs under a steady NW flow. Temperatures will also be cooler Saturday night into Sunday, as a result, nearing climatological averages or slightly below climatological norms by Sunday.

AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
High pressure over the terminals tonight will push moves overhead on Monday. A warm front approaches Monday night.

Mainly VFR through the TAF period. There is a chance for MVFR conditions with showers Monday evening.

NW winds continue to diminish this evening. Winds will veer to the N and then NNE tonight with speeds generally falling to around 5 kt at NYC terminals. Winds elsewhere should become light and variable. The flow will become SE Monday morning after 12z and increase through the day. Wind speeds around 10-13 kt are expected in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 kt are possible, mainly at NYC and coastal terminals.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts Monday afternoon/evening may end up occasional.

Timing of potential showers and MVFR Monday evening may be off by 1-3 hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Monday Night: MVFR developing with potential showers. IFR possible overnight.

Tuesday: Lingering shower possible early, mainly east of NYC terminals. Becoming VFR in the morning. SW-W wind gusts 15-20 kt possible.

Wednesday and Thursday: VFR.

Friday: Chance of MVFR and showers, mainly in the afternoon into the night.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Conditions will remain below SCA levels through Monday afternoon as high pressure moves across the waters. Seas may build toward 5 ft on the ocean Monday night with a frontal passage, but latest guidance continues to run just shy of SCA.

SCA criteria is not expected to be met Tuesday through Friday night.

HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic issues through this week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.