Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Richmond Heights, OH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
1230 AM Update...
Gusty showers that impacted portions of the area over the last couple hours have pushed out of the area, allowing for the Severe Thunderstorm Watch to be cancelled this morning. There is a non-zero chance of isolated convection overnight with radar observing some upstream showers and storms over western Ohio.
Given the worked over environment, not expecting these to become severe, but cannot rule out some isolated wind gusts of 50-55 mph and heavy rainfall.

In addition to making adjustments to the forecast for the convection this morning, also adjusted the wind gust forecast for today and into Sunday as the previous forecast was very low on the synoptic winds. Winds this morning will remain primarily from the south at 15-20 mph, gusting up to 30-35 mph. As a cold front pushes east later today, winds will shift to become westerly and increase to be sustained at 20-25 mph with gusts up to 30-35 mph (possibly a tad higher across western counties). No wind headlines are expected at this point, but worth noting the increase in magnitude with this update.

630 PM Update...
Last remaining portion of the first round of thunderstorms is exiting Crawford County, PA, allowing for a lull in the action across the forecast area. Awaiting convection approaching the state line where active warnings are ongoing and a wind gust of 57 kts was measured at Fort Wayne.

Relevant Portions of the Previous Discussion...
Attention then turns towards this evening, where current satellite imagery reveals a strong convective complex taking shape across eastern MO and southwest IL this afternoon. The environment ahead of this complex is extremely favorable for damaging wind gusts, with DCAPE values exceeding 1000 J/kg.
Hires models differ on if this complex can sustain its strength as it continues northeast into the Lower Great Lakes region by later this evening. If it does, anticipate damaging wind gusts to arrive across the I-75 corridor by around 9 PM, with perhaps some isolated instances of significant wind gusts exceeding 70 mph possible. This complex should weaken as it moves east and encounters a less favorable environment near the I-71/77 corridors by around 11 PM to midnight.

A cold front will sweep east through the area Saturday morning and afternoon, ushering in a significant pattern change across the region. Could see some redevelopment along the cold front, particularly along and east of the I-77 corridor early Saturday afternoon, though not anticipating any severe storms at this time. It may feel a bit blustery Saturday afternoon behind the front, with temperatures falling into the low 60s and westerly wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph possible.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Drier air will continue to filter into the region Sunday as the closed mid/upper low drifts east through the New England states allowing strong surface high pressure centered near Hudson Bay to build ridging southward into the Lower Great Lakes. A few isolated showers and overcast skies could linger in far NE Ohio and NW PA Sunday morning before the increased ridging allows for mostly sunny and dry conditions areawide by afternoon. Despite the sunshine, temperatures will be unseasonably cool as mid/upper troughing remains across the Great Lakes, with highs only in the upper 50s to low 60s in far NE Ohio and NW PA and mid 60s to around 70 elsewhere.
The surface ridge and trough aloft will continue through Monday, so unfortunately for those wanting a warm up, temperatures will remain cool for awhile. Highs Monday are only expected to reach the upper 50s to low 60s again in far NE Ohio and NW PA and low to mid 60s elsewhere. Lows Sunday night will dip into the mid 40s to low 50s, with more widespread 40s possible Monday night depending on how quickly clouds and scattered showers can start to creep northeastward ahead of another closed low in the Mid Mississippi Valley. Patchy frost is possible in NW PA Monday night where skies should remain clear longer, so this will need to be monitored.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The big story of the extended will be a continuation of below normal temperatures as an increasingly amplified pattern develops across North America, characterized by strengthening west coast mid/upper ridging and deepening central and eastern U.S. mid/upper troughing.
This will keep temperatures a solid 10-15 degrees below normal Tuesday through Friday, with highs mainly in the low to mid 60s and lows in the 40s. The cool pattern will continue beyond the 7-day forecast into late May. The precipitation forecast Tuesday through the end of the week is a little more uncertain due to timing uncertainties with the aforementioned Mid Mississippi Valley closed low ejecting across the Ohio Valley region. As mid/upper shortwave energy drops through the Great Lakes Monday night through Wednesday and deepens the longwave trough, the closed low will attempt to phase with the trough. This will eventually result in a deep closed low and cold pool aloft pinwheeling overhead late in the week, but how and when it phases will determine the timing and track of the best moisture and forcing. The overall message is that rain chances will increase Tuesday into Wednesday, with decent coverage of showers possible mid to late week making things cool and unsettled.
Not the best news as Memorial Day Weekend approaches.

AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/
Widespread VFR conditions are expected to persist for much of this period. There is a small chance that some terminals may briefly drop to MVFR in showers that move into the area, however confidence in the expanse of showers and exact location is low so opted to not include as prevailing, but opted to include as TEMPO for KCAK, KYNG, and KERI. As the cold front pushes east this morning, all terminals should dry out for the remainder of the period. After 00Z Sunday, ceilings will gradually diminish to MVFR heights.

The primary aviation concern through this period will be strong, gusty winds at all terminals. Ahead of the cold front this morning, winds from the south-southwest will be sustained at 10-15 knots, gusting to 20-25 knots. Behind the cold front late this morning, winds will shift to become more westerly at 15-20 knots, gusting up to 25-30 knots. Near the end of the period, winds will remain from the west and weaken to 5-10 knots with gusts of 15-20 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in low ceilings across the eastern half of the area on Sunday. Mainly VFR is expected Monday and Tuesday. Non-VFR is likely to return on Wednesday in widespread showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE
Thunderstorms could bring locally higher winds and waves on Lake Erie this evening and tonight, but otherwise, the next period of elevated winds and waves will come Saturday into Sunday as strong cold air advection encourages good mixing. SW winds of 10-20 knots tonight will turn WSW behind a cold front Saturday morning and increase to 15-25 knots. This will build waves of 3 to 5 feet, so issued Small Craft Advisories starting Saturday morning. The winds and waves will gradually subside Saturday night, but it will take until Sunday morning to end in the central and eastern basins, so ran the advisories longer there. Winds will turn NW and decrease to 5-10 knots Sunday afternoon then N at 5-15 knots Sunday night and Monday. A period of strong NE winds of 15-25 knots is possible Monday night through midweek as a slow moving closed low approaches from the Mid Mississippi Valley and an upper level trough deepens across the Great Lakes. This will likely require another round of Small Craft Advisories.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ142>145.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ146-147.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ148-149.