Sunrise 6:04 AM   Sunset 8:40 PM Moonrise 11:58 AM   Moonset 1:43 AM

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LEZ146 Expires:202405152015;;252827 Fzus51 Kcle 151342 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 942 am edt Wed may 15 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez144>146-152015- the islands to vermilion oh-vermilion to avon point oh- avon point to willowick oh- 942 am edt Wed may 15 2024
Rest of today - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely late this morning, then showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms early this afternoon. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Tonight - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday night - Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Friday through Sunday.
the water temperature off toledo is 63 degrees, off cleveland 52 degrees, and off erie 55 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 160135 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 935 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure over the Ohio Valley departs east to the Mid- Atlantic Coast tonight. High pressure builds into the area tonight through Thursday evening. Another low pressure system will impact the area on Friday and Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
935 PM Update...
No significant forecast changes this evening. Any lingering convection is largely out of the CWA at this point.

Previous Discussion...
Upper-level low and surface low combination centered over southern OH/western WV will continue to make eastward progress this evening. Scattered rain showers with embedded isolated thunderstorms east of I-75 and away from Lake Erie will continue through about 00Z this evening before rapidly dissipating thereafter. Patch to areas of fog will develop late tonight through tomorrow morning before giving way to partly sunny skies tomorrow as weak high pressure builds in. The next low pressure system approaches from the west tomorrow with rain chances increasing late Thursday night (30-50% range west of I-77).

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
An upper-level trough with just a weak surface reflection is expected to be located over the southern Plains and Ozarks Friday morning. This upper trough is expected to lift east-northeast through the first half of the weekend while gradually closing off.
Models are trying to key on a couple of pieces of energy working through Friday morning and again Friday evening/night ahead of the main closed low, with the main closed low making its closest pass on Saturday before getting shunned towards the central Appalachians Saturday night. Broad warm / moist advection and occasional lift ahead of the approaching closed low will keep the forecast unsettled for Friday and Saturday. The forcing with a closed off/cut off and relatively weak low aloft will be diffuse and fairly modest so it will not rain the entire period, with greater shower and storm potential likely to be tied to the exact timing / track of the various pieces of upper energy and daytime heating. POPs start out fairly similar area-wide Friday morning. From late Friday through Saturday night, higher POPs are generally focused farther south and east with lower POPs gradually working in from the northwest. It is uncertain how quickly we can clear the rain out of parts of our area during the day Saturday, as the closed low will not be in a hurry to move through and exit. However, there is currently better agreement that a more notable drying trend is likely by Saturday night.

It will be slightly above average and on the muggy side for this period. Expect highs generally in the 70s Friday and Saturday with dew points pushing towards or into the lower 60s. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 60s Friday night, perhaps cooling slightly more into the upper 50s/lower 60s for Saturday night. There is not expected to be enough instability or flow aloft for a severe weather threat Friday or Saturday. A lack of greater organization should preclude much of a flooding threat, though with weak mean flow any convective showers or storms could drop isolated heavier rain.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As the closed low from the first half of the weekend exits east, broad ridging and deep-layer southwest flow will develop. This will allow for a more substantial warming trend into the first half of next week. A warm front is expected to develop just to our north on Monday ahead of low pressure ejecting out of the Plains and towards the upper Midwest. This means we should be in the open warm sector until a cold front crosses in the vicinity of Tuesday night or Wednesday. Mainly dry conditions are expected Sunday and much of Monday. We will need to monitor for thunderstorms to develop to our west and make it in at times late Monday through Tuesday afternoon.
Greater shower and storm potential may arrive Tuesday night as the cold front begins nearing, so have rather low POPs Monday and Tuesday trending to high chance or likely (40-60%) Tuesday night and Wednesday. By Tuesday and Wednesday, the combination of steeper mid- level lapse rates potentially advecting in aloft and above-average PWATs could yield sufficient instability, when combined with moderate flow aloft, for more organized thunderstorms. Highs will range from the mid 70s to low 80s for Sunday, warming more solidly into the low to perhaps mid 80s for Monday and Tuesday. Highs on Wednesday will be very dependent on frontal timing. Overnight lows will generally range from the mid 50s to the mid 60s.

AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/
With the afternoon convection slowly winding down, do not think that will have much of an impact going forward in the forecast for the region. Biggest challenge overnight is the onset of fog and/or stratus, both IFR or possibly worse. The fog is probably a bigger threat where rain has fallen today, but in the end, this part of the forecast is a bit lower confidence. Formation of both IFR stratus/fog would be later in the overnight, after 09Z. Likely will take until after 14Z to reach VFR conditions once again where restrictions do form. SCT cumulus field during daytime heating Thursday.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with showers and thunderstorms Thursday night through Saturday.

MARINE
North-northeast flow at 8 to 15 knots will continue through Thursday morning. High pressure will slide over the lake on Thursday, causing the winds to become variable but generally onshore with the highest pressure located over the chilly lake waters. Winds shift east- southeast Thursday night and Friday at generally 6 to 12 knots with southeast winds continuing through Friday night. Winds will be variable but generally light over the weekend. Winds and waves are expected to remain below headline criteria for the foreseeable future. Some fog is possible over the chillier waters of the eastern basin overnight tonight into early Thursday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible over the lake Friday afternoon through Saturday evening, though greatest potential should be inland.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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