NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Clouds in western New England within the very northwestern edge of the coastal low circulation. The clouds on satellite imagery are very slowly exiting east, and may take much of the rest of the morning and into the afternoon before more widespread sunshine is seen. Sunny elsewhere. Based on current temperature trends, forecasted high temperatures are in the ball park. Just minor adjustments to temperatures and sky cover through this afternoon.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: For tonight, skies should be clearing to allow for fog to develop overnight. Low temperatures cool into the 50s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
The surface low pressure system off the Atlantic coast of MA/RI will help contribute to keep eastern NY and western New England dry as we are positioned in-between two low pressure systems, one to our west and one to our east. We should remain dry that's favored by latest high resolution forecast model guidance over us. A cold front from the north brings cooler, seasonable temperatures for this weekend. While skies Saturday and Sunday will be a mix of sun and clouds, dry conditions continue. Winds during the morning hours remain light and variable, and with radiational cooling, valley fog could develop each morning this weekend. Seasonable temperatures are in store for this weekend.
High temperatures Saturday are forecasted to be in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Low temperatures for Sunday morning are forecasted in the upper 40s to low 50s. We could see high temperatures on Sunday in the upper 60s to low 70s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Our approximately 2 week stretch of dry and benign weather comes to end during the upcoming long term as broad troughing develops across the Northeast with potential for even a cut-off low to form towards the end of next week. As a result of this pattern shift, multiple days will feature chances for rainfall by the middle to end of next week. With the month-to-date September precipitation for much of eastern NY and western New England only around or under 0.50", the expected wetter pattern will bring beneficial rainfall as soils have become quite dry. Temperatures will also trend relatively cooler but will be quite seasonable for late September standards in response to upcoming troughing. More details below.

We start off the period Monday into Tuesday with broad ridging aloft centered over the TN/Ohio Valley extending into the Northeast with a strong sfc high centered over eastern Quebec. This will maintain dry and pleasant yet relatively cooler conditions Monday into most of Tuesday. However, Tuesday into Wednesday, we note the start of our pattern shift as broad troughing from the Upper Plains amplifies and slides eastward, breaking down the downstream ridge. While there are differences on the exact timing and amplitude of the incoming trough, ensemble clusters from DESI show strong agreement for troughing to ensue across the eastern CONUS which increasing confidence for multiple chances for rainfall Wednesday through the end of the work week. Meanwhile, ensemble guidance also suggests that strong ridging becomes established over the West CONUS with an omega block pattern potentially developing. Such a pattern upstream may also support troughing over the Eastern CONUS transitioning into a cut-off low towards the end of the work week as northern and southern stream energy within our split flow potentially phase. We will continue to monitor how the pattern evolves but the main takeaway is that we can expect our sensible weather to become wetter/unsettled, seasonably cool, and cloudier starting Tuesday night into Wednesday and lasting through the end of the work week.
We thus have widespread chance POPs in place through this period.
Not enough confidence on exact shower coverage, timing, or duration to include likely POPs at this time. Temperatures should rise into the mid-upper 60s to low 70s each day with overnight lows dropping into the low to mid 50s.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Through 18z Saturday...VFR conditions prevail across all terminals this afternoon with clouds streaming into the region on the outskirts of a coastal system located south and east of the Long Island Coast. KPSF has seen the cloudiest conditions thus far today, being the closest to the influence of the nearby system and as such has experienced MVFR ceilings throughout the course of the morning. While visible satellite and latest obs show some improvement, included a TEMPO for MVFR ceiling heights over the next couple of hours until consistent improvement is noted as is suggested by latest forecast soundings.

Throughout the overnight period tonight, cloud coverage looks to be relatively variable. The fair-weather cumulus about the region will dissipate, but with the coastal storm remaining within reach, some additional bands of clouds will stream into the region. Latest guidance points towards higher cloud bases than previous runs, but largely VFR conditions should prevail.
Anticipated breaks in cloud coverage could aid in the radiational cooling necessary to generate some patchy fog/mist especially at the notorious KGFL terminal. Included a TEMPO to reflect MVFR visibility for now, but this could be amended to IFR in future updates should confidence increase. KPSF could develop an MVFR ceiling again tomorrow morning, so added a TEMPO for this as well as confidence is not high in those heights being maintained much past the early morning hours.

Throughout the 18z cycle, winds will remain light with sustained speeds generally ranging from 2-5 kt. Winds will be generally variable to start before prevailing out of an east-northeast direction by tomorrow morning.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.