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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 451 Pm Est Sat Dec 2 2023
Tonight..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming E late this evening, then increasing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight, increasing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 1 ft or less. Areas of fog. Chance of rain after midnight. Rain likely late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft, building to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft, subsiding to 1 to 2 ft after midnight. Chance of rain, mainly in the evening.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.

ANZ300 451 Pm Est Sat Dec 2 2023
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. Developing low pressure over the mid mississippi valley tonight heads up into the great lakes through Sunday, with a secondary low developing to the south of the area. Both lows lift north and east of the area Sunday night into Monday. High pressure returns for Tuesday. Another wave of low pressure develops off the middle atlantic coast Wednesday before high pressure on Thursday.

FXUS61 KALY 022057 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 357 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
Our dreary weather will continue this weekend with widespread precipitation developing Sunday and continuing into Monday. Rain will overspread the area with snow mixing with the rain across the southern Adirondacks, Upper Hudson Valley and southern Vermont during the afternoon followed by a changeover to snow in the evening. Snow accumulations of 1 to 4 inches are expected with the higher totals across the higher terrain.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
A stalled boundary across the region will settle southward tonight as a short wave moves off to our east, while aloft some ridging will develop upstream ahead of an approaching trough. Dreary and cloudy tonight with some drizzle and fog. 12Z ALY sounding shows saturated conditions below 700 mb with a couple of inversion in place and this is expected to persist. Temperatures are expected to drop back into to the 30s and lower 40s tonight with little change in readings across the southern Adirondacks which are already to the north of boundary.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Accumulating wet snow expected across the southern Adirondacks, upper Hudson Valley and southern Vermont Sunday afternoon and night.

Another complex event for the area with southern and northern stream energy in play. Two surface lows will develop in response with an interior low passing over the eastern Great Lakes and northern New York and another along the mid-Atlantic coast tracking northeastward along the coast. Our region will be caught into inbetween with an occluded boundary lifting through Sunday night. Widespread rain is expected to develop and overspread the area Sunday morning. Initially thermal profiles will support rain, however snow will mix in with the rain across southern Adirondacks, upper Hudson Valley and southern Vermont during the afternoon as temperatures fall and precipitation rates pick up. A transition to all wet snow is expected in the evening mainly above 1500 feet across southern Adirondacks, upper Hudson Valley and southern Vermont. The steady precipitation will taper off south to north as the occluded boundary lifts through overnight. Snow accumulations of 1 to 4 inches are expected with the higher totals across the higher terrain. The area expected to receive 4 inches is not great enough to warrant a winter weather advisory at this time, but this could change.

The weather remain unsettled as another trough moves across the region Monday. Also flow low level flow will favor enhancement off the lakes. Looking showers during the day Monday especially across the higher terrain with mainly snow across the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens with rain in the valleys transiting to snow in the evening. Overall chances for showers will decrease Monday night as the trough moves off to our east.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Tuesday and Tuesday night still in question as a short wave moves though an upper level trough with weak surface low pressure south of the area. Short wave is positively tilted which usually leads to light precipitation and limits it to the higher terrain. For now, mostly cloudy Tuesday with some snow showers in the hill towns.
Mainly fair weather expected for Wednesday through Friday. A warm front may cross the area on Saturday which could lead to clouds and precipitation.

Ensemble guidance shows lower than normal upper heights Wed-Thu and normal heights Fri with surface high pressure. Heights moderate to above normal on Saturday. So, generally near to slightly below normal temperatures Tuesday through Friday with a milder Saturday expected.

AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Through 18z Sunday....Main weather concerns to operations for the ALY terminals include:

* Persistent MVFR to LIFR conditions over the next 24 hours due to low ceilings and mist/fog

* Another round of rain showers developing on Sunday

As of this update, the ALY aerodromes were ranging between IFR and LIFR with ceilings between 200-500 feet AGL and visibilities between 2-7 statute miles. The forecast area will remain socked in MVFR to LIFR ceilings and/or visibilities due to low clouds and mist/fog over the next 24 hours as a strong surface inversion keeping low level moisture trapped underneath it remains in place. Flying conditions could improve slightly over the next few hours into MVFR territory based off trends in central New York. Though most of the evening/night will remain rain-free, there could be instances of drizzle or VCSH over the terminals this afternoon into tonight as the first shortwave continues to pull out of the area.

A second slightly stronger disturbance will emerge out of the Southeast U.S. and phase/merge with a secondary shortwave over the Great Lakes Region. These features will bring another round of widespread precipitation to the region on Sunday. Have PROB30s between 08z-13z for the TAF sites. Greater confidence that rain showers will move into the TAF sites between 12z-15z. Low clouds, mist, and/or fog will remain in place on Sunday due to the aforementioned inversion.

Winds will by and large remain light and variable to calm through the 18z TAF cycle.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
SHSN.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
SHSN.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

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Shelton
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Sat -- 03:53 AM EST     4.65 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:09 AM EST     0.76 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:34 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:06 PM EST     4.98 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:23 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:16 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:42 PM EST     0.47 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shelton, Housatonic River, Connecticut, Tide feet

New Hamburg
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Sat -- 03:42 AM EST     2.45 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:37 AM EST     0.51 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:38 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:40 PM EST     2.87 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:26 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:18 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:38 PM EST     0.36 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

New Hamburg, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

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