Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wappingers Falls, NY

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Frost Advisory remains in effect 9 AM EDT this morning for the Mid-Hudson Valley, eastern Dutchess County, and Litchfield County...

Broad cyclonic flow within upper-level troughing digging south and east about the base of an upper-level low situated well off to our northeast has allowed cloud cover to gradually increase across the region throughout the morning. Meanwhile, a surface trough has simultaneously followed a southeast track through the region, supporting isolated to scattered showers propagating as far as the Eastern Catskills, Helderbergs, Taconics and Berkshires. Some additional scattered, terrain-enhanced showers are possible through this morning in the Southwest Adirondacks, Eastern Catskills, and Southern Greens as an upper- level shortwave fully rotates through the region, but the rest of the region should remain dry.

With clouds slow to reach the Mid-Hudson Valley and northwest Connecticut, radiational cooling has helped temperatures drop to the upper 30s to low 40s. With relatively light winds in these areas, and an anticipation of temperatures further dropping into the mid 30s, maintained patches to areas of frost within the forecast through 9 AM this morning. As such, the Frost Advisory also remains in effect through 9 AM in these areas.

Once showers fully taper off this afternoon with the exit of the upper shortwave, clouds will gradually decrease across the region as heights increase in advance of a building ridge to the west. High temperatures will once again be cooler than normal for mid-October with low/mid 40s at higher elevations and upper 40s to low 50s in valley areas.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Freeze Watch has been upgraded to a Freeze Warning. A Freeze Warning is now in effect for the Hudson River Valley, eastern Dutchess County, and Litchfield County for 3 AM until 9 AM Thursday morning...

Upper-level ridging amplifies upstream as surface high pressure encroaches from the southwest tonight. Increased subsidence paired with already drier, northwesterly flow will act to quickly erode clouds overnight, yielding prime radiational cooling conditions. Low temperatures are therefore progged to fall to the upper 20s to low 30s across all of eastern New York and western New England. Therefore, a Freeze Warning has been issued from 3 AM through 9 AM Thursday morning for the Hudson River Valley, eastern Dutchess County, and Litchfield County where the growing season has not yet ended.

Thursday and Friday will feature a gradual warming trend in temperatures paired with clear skies as the aforementioned ridge continues to build in across the region and high pressure dominates at the surface. Highs Thursday will reach the low to upper 50s with pockets of upper 40s above 1500 ft while Friday will see mid/upper 50s to mid 60s.

Will have to monitor low temperatures Thursday night and Friday night for frost/freeze potential. Between the two nights, Thursday looks more favorable for meeting frost/freeze criteria with lows progged to fall to the upper 20s to mid 30s in areas where the growing season has not yet ended. Friday night, with lows looking to be a few degrees warmer (low to upper 30s), has less of a chance of meeting freeze criteria, but frost advisories may still be needed.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The long term period will be dominated by an anomalously strong upper level ridge (500 mb height anomalies of +1 to +2 STDEV). This will also result in an anomalously warm air mass with 850 mb temperature anomalies of +1 to +2 STDEV Sat through Tue. Low temperatures will still be near to slightly below normal through Sun morning with a dry air mass and clear skies/light winds. Otherwise, there is high confidence in above normal temperatures (highs and lows) through the period. The upper level ridge looks to hold through Tue, so will maintain a dry forecast with PoPs < 5%.

AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Through 06z Thursday...A disturbance will continue to move southward across the region into this morning, bringing increasing/lowering mid level clouds with mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail. However, cig heights should lower to MVFR levels at higher elevation site KPSF by 08z or 09z. Clouds will be prevalent through the morning, and will gradually scour out this afternoon as drier air builds in. Clear skies should develop by around sunset this evening.

Winds will initially be west-southwest around 6-12 kt with gusts near 20 kt at KPSF, becoming northwest by later this morning and increasing to 10-13 kt with gusts of 15-20 kt developing at all TAF sites.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. Areas FROST.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for CTZ001-013.
Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for CTZ001-013.
NY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ059-060- 064>066.
Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ041-043- 049-050-052-053-059-060-064>066-083-084.
MA...None.
VT...None.