Tuesday, October15, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wappingers Falls, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 6:16PM Tuesday October 15, 2019 6:53 AM EDT (10:53 UTC) Moonrise 7:33PMMoonset 8:36AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 355 Am Edt Tue Oct 15 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon...
.gale watch in effect from Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon...
Today..N winds around 10 kt, becoming sw this afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..E winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Chance of showers in the morning.
Thu night..W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 355 Am Edt Tue Oct 15 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds today, and passes east tonight. A frontal system approaches Wednesday, with a rapidly intensifying coastal low tracking just southeast of the area Wednesday night. Low pressure will depart on Thursday with high pressure building in for the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wappingers Falls village, NY
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location: 41.58, -73.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 151027
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
627 am edt Tue oct 15 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will be over new york and new england today with
fair weather and seasonable temperatures. The surface high will
move east of new england tonight. A complex storm system will
bring a widespread soaking rainfall into the region Wednesday
afternoon into Thursday along with brisk and cool conditions.

Fair and dry weather will return Friday into the weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 626 am edt... High pressure will build in over ny and new
england today with sunny mostly sunny, fair and seasonably dry
weather. Patchy fog in the ct river valley, lake george region
and the upper hudson river valley should burn off quickly after
sunrise. A band of lake effect clouds off lake ontario is
impacting the western adirondacks this morning, but should lift
northward and erode quickly by the late morning.

H850 temps will be a tad cooler than yesterday with 0c
to +4c values from the adirondacks southeast into NW ct. The
boundary layer winds will be light, but strong synoptic
subsidence should allow temps be near normal for mid oct with
highs in upper 50s to lower 60s in the lower elevations,and
upper 40s to mid 50s over the hills and mtns.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Thursday
Tonight... The sfc anticyclone will slowly translate east of new
england with clear mostly clear conditions and light to calm
winds early on. Some decent radiational cooling is possible, and
well after midnight light southeast winds should commence. Also,
some thin cirrus will increase ahead of the approaching storm
system over the great lakes region. Mins may occur shortly after
midnight, and then steady or slowly rise. Lows will be mainly in
the 30s to lower 40s. Some patches of frost may occur in the mid
hudson valley capital district and southern litchfield co. Where
the growing season has not officially ended.

Wednesday... The stretch of dry weather comes to end, as a
complex storm system with northern and southern stream energy
impacts the region. Clouds quickly thicken and lower during the
morning, as the warm advection ramps up. The northern stream
short-wave moves towards the eastern great lakes corridor, while
a southern stream disturbance reaches eastern nc by the early
pm. The water vapor transport increases with a strong low-level
jet ushering in some gulf moisture. The +v component wind
anomalies at h850 increase +2 to +3 stdevs above normal by the
late pm early evening. Pwats increase +1 to +2 stdevs above
normal based on the 00z gefs. Periods of rain move in based on
the short-range guidance and the ensembles in the afternoon,
and a trend to categorical pops continues. Highs in the warm
advection regime ahead of the double barrel system will reach
the mid 50s to lower mid 60s across the region. It will be
breezy with south to southeast winds of 10-20 mph with some
gusts 30-35 mph off the southern greens and taconics.

Wed night... Periods of moderate to occasionally heavy rain
continues, as the two short-waves potentially phase near long
island or southern new england. Rapid secondary cyclogenesis
occurs with coastal wave perhaps deepening to 980 hpa or so. The
low-level easterlies -u component of the wind increase to +2
to +3 stdevs greater than normal. The east to southeast winds
will orographically enhance some of the rain totals along the
eastern spine of the catskills, adirondacks, and the western new
england higher terrain. A widespread soaking rainfall, which is
not atypical for oct is expected with rainfall amounts
Wednesday night in the 1-2+ inch range. A rumble of thunder is
possible over the mid hudson valley, southern berkshires and nw
ct due to the strong dynamical forcing and moist symmetric
instability. Lows will fall back into the lower to mid 40s with
some upper 30s over the southern dacks, southern greens, and
eastern catskills.

Thursday... The secondary low initially deepens, but then begins
to fill or go through cyclo-lysis northeast of the gulf of
maine. The h500 closed low settles over eastern ny and western
new england for periods of showers to continue through the
morning, and then start to taper by the afternoon. Additional
rainfall amounts are expected with storm totals amounts in the
1-3 inch range with isolated higher amounts. Some storm drains
may get clogged with leaves, sticks, trash and other debris so
we will have to monitor for some poor drainage flooding, but
due to the dry antecedent conditions, and high gridded ffg
values, we are not expecting the potential for widespread
flooding. Wpc does have a marginal risk of exceeding the ffg
values in the hsa in their old day 3 graphic. It will become
brisk on Thu with northwest winds of 10 to 20 mph with some
gusts 30 to 40 mph. Highs will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s
over the higher terrain, and 50s in the valley areas.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
The period starts out Thursday night with a vertically stacked cyclone
(nor'easter) near the northern maine coast, with a brisk
northwest flow regime across our area influenced by the large
cyclone. While the bulk of the precipitation will have ended by
Thursday night, scattered wrap-around upslope showers will
affect higher terrain areas of the adirondacks, southern green
and berkshires. As colder air aloft filters in overnight, some
snow flakes may mix in across the highest peaks above 3000 ft.

Northwest winds will persist, with gusts of 20-30 mph expected.

The nor'easter finally pulls away into the canadian maritimes on
Friday, with the flow pattern aloft becoming more neutral
across our region. This will result in drying conditions with
gradually decreasing cloud cover through the day. Northwest
winds will still be breezy though, as a ridge of high pressure
remains positioned to our west through the day. Winds will
finally abate Friday night as the ridge moves overhead. It will
be mainly clear with seasonably cool temperatures Friday night.

The upcoming weekend is shaping up to be a good one, as the ridge of
high pressure will be directly over the region on Saturday,
then shift eastward off the coast on Sunday. So Saturday should
feature abundant sunshine with near normal temperatures, with
readings warming above normal on Sunday due to a developing
southerly flow around the departing ridge.

With an expected southwest flow regime setting up with flat
ridging aloft, moisture will start to return Sunday night into
Monday. There are differences among the guidance with regards to
when rainfall returns. Will side with the drier GFS cmc
solutions for now. Temperatures will continue to be mild, as low
level southerly winds persist.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
High pressure will be over the region today, resulting in clear skies
and lighter winds.VFR conditions should prevail through the
next 24 hours ending 12z Wednesday, although some fog is
possible at kgfl kpsf tonight. Confidence is low so will not
mention in tafs at this time.

Winds today will become south-southwest around 4-6 kt this afternoon,
then light and variable tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday night: high operational impact. Breezy definiteshra... Ra.

Thursday: high operational impact. Windy likely shra.

Thursday night: low operational impact. Breezy slight chance of
shra.

Friday: low operational impact. Breezy no sig wx.

Friday night to Sunday : no operational impact. No sig wx.

Fire weather
High pressure will be over new york and new england today with
fair weather and seasonable temperatures. The surface high will
move east of new england tonight. A complex storm system will
bring a widespread soaking rainfall into the region Wednesday
afternoon into Thursday along with brisk and cool conditions.

Fair and dry weather will return Friday into the weekend.

Min rh values will be 40 to 55 percent this afternoon. They will
increase to 100 percent Wednesday morning, and only lower to 60
to 80 percent during the afternoon with rain over spreading the
region.

The winds will become light to calm today into tonight, and
then increase from the south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph by
Wednesday afternoon with some gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range.

A widespread soaking rainfall is possible Wednesday afternoon
into Thursday.

Hydrology
No hydro problems are expected prior to the mid week, but then a
a widespread soaking rainfall is possible Wednesday afternoon
into Thursday. Some increased flows on the main stem rivers are
likely.

Total rainfall still varies from the guidance, but one to three
inches are possible in some locations with some isolated locally
higher amounts. Within bank rises are possible on the main stem
rivers. Some ponding of water on roadways and poor drainage
flooding of low lying areas is possible due to the moderate to
potentially heavy rainfall in a 12 to 24 hour time frame. The
latest mmefs guidance indicates no problems in the aly hsa.

A period of dry weather will return Friday into the weekend
which should allow flows to slow and lower.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Wasula
near term... Wasula
short term... Wasula
long term... Jpv
aviation... Jpv
fire weather... Wasula
hydrology... Nas wasula


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPXN6 17 mi83 min NE 2.9 42°F 1021 hPa39°F
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 30 mi83 min Calm 40°F 1020 hPa39°F
TKPN6 30 mi53 min Calm G 1 42°F 61°F1021 hPa39°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 47 mi68 min N 5.8 G 7.8 53°F 43°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 49 mi59 min N 2.9 G 4.1 48°F 63°F1019.6 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY6 mi60 minN 010.00 miFair37°F35°F93%1019.9 hPa
Newburgh / Stewart, NY9 mi68 minN 010.00 miClear41°F41°F100%1020.7 hPa
Montgomery, Orange County Airport, NY17 mi59 minN 09.00 miFair36°F36°F100%1020.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPOU

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmS3SW9SW10SW7--SW9SW10SW7W4W10W7W9NW5N6N7N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmN5NE6N7N9N5NE4CalmCalmNW3SE3CalmNE4N3CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNE3N4N5N56CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for New Hamburg, Hudson River, New York
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New Hamburg
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:38 AM EDT     3.11 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:20 AM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 01:44 PM EDT     3.33 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:32 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:51 PM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.733.12.92.31.60.90.40.10.3122.83.23.33.12.721.30.70.30.20.61.5

Tide / Current Tables for Newburgh, Hudson River, New York
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Newburgh
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:20 AM EDT     3.02 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:55 AM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 01:26 PM EDT     3.23 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:32 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:26 PM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.8332.621.30.70.30.10.51.32.32.93.23.22.92.41.710.50.20.30.91.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.