Sunday, December8, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Wappingers Falls, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 4:27PM Sunday December 8, 2019 12:52 PM EST (17:52 UTC) Moonrise 3:36PMMoonset 4:13AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1212 Pm Est Sun Dec 8 2019
This afternoon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..SW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Rain in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain likely. Snow likely after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1212 Pm Est Sun Dec 8 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure across the waters passes east by early this afternoon. A frontal system will then impact the area Monday through Tuesday night. High pressure will build in from the west Wednesday into Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wappingers Falls village, NY
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location: 41.58, -73.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 081725 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1225 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will move east of New England this afternoon with an increasing southerly flow and fair conditions, as high clouds increase from the west. A low pressure system and a frontal boundary will bring mainly rain to the region Monday into Tuesday. Colder air with some snow showers or period of snow returns Tuesday night into Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 1222 PM EST . Temps are rising nicely after a cold start this morning with sunny/mostly sunny skies, as some cirrus are on the increase from the south and west. T/TD hourly trends were redone based on observations. The sfc anticyclone continues to move east of southeast New England. The low and mid level warm advection will continue. The GOES-16 IR image continues to show the increase of high clouds with the thermal trough. The southerly winds are starting to increase at 10 to 15 mph. It will be breezy the rest of the afternoon with highs in the upper 20s to mid and upper 30s across the region. Some of the winds gusts this afternoon could get to 20-35 mph especially over the confluent region of the Capital Region and into the Upper Hudson River Valley.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Low temperatures tonight will depend on whether there is any decoupling of the winds during the evening and how quickly the high clouds thicken and lower. Temperatures will fall a few degrees in areas that see the winds diminish during the evening. Clouds thicken and lower through the rest of the night and with boundary layer winds continuing to increase. Temperatures will warm slowly between midnight and daybreak.

The leading edge of some patchy precipitation will spread into southern and western areas but just chances and slight chances. Due to surface temperatures around freezing in the southern Adirondacks and Lake George area, some mixed precipitation is possible through mid morning on Monday. Upper heights rise and boundary layer flow turns more southerly, which should support temperatures warming, even with widespread rain Monday.

Northern areas will be slower to warm and it may take most of the day to reach high temperatures. Temperatures in the 30s and 40s early Monday will just slowly rise until the strongest warm advection begins late Monday afternoon and into Monday night. High temperatures will likely be around or after sunset. Highs Monday in the upper 40s to lower 50s but lower to mid 50s northern areas.

Surface dew points are likely to rise into the lower to mid 40s, which means the combination of temperatures and dew points could lead to enhanced snow melt, along with the locally heavy rain. Temperatures and dew points may rise a few degrees through Monday night ahead of a very strong cold front expected to track through our region through the day Tuesday. So, locally heavy rain and temperatures and dew points in the 40s to near 50 will support more snow melt.

There is a good consensus from sources of guidance/ensembles that the mean upper trough axis is very slow to build east out of the south central Canada, the Great Lakes and Midwestern U.S. There will be a very tight thermal gradient along the cold front and could support an enhanced line or band of showers that will change to snow once the front is through. Highs Tuesday before the front tracks through should be in the 50s but some 40s northern areas.

Then, upper energy tracking through the broad mean upper trough slows the east progress of the front and enhances moisture advection, frontogenesis and midlevel convergence north and west of the cold front. Some guidance suggests boundary layer moisture and dynamics support a band of accumulating snow while other guidance suggest mid and upper dynamics/forcing and moisture through the dendritic growth zone dominates over drying and cooling at the boundary layer. The important point is that despite the considerable differences in how the different sets of guidance/ensembles produce a zone of accumulating snow, the zones line up generally in the same area.

So, there could be some light accumulating snows over much of our region before precipitation ends Wednesday morning. We have lots of time to watch this. It looks like there will not be enough snow for headlines but enough to shovel in some areas.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Wednesday, the Albany forecast area will be between cold front to the southeast east and clipper type low pressure system moving through the Saint Lawrence Valley. Wednesday looks to start cloudy, there may be some breaks mid day, and then clouds increase again later associated with clipper low. Some light snow is possible over the southeast part of the area during the morning associated with the cold front. Chance snow showers elsewhere from either lake effect downwind of lake Ontario or the clipper low. Highs Wednesday from the mid 20s southern Adirondacks to mid 30s mid Hudson Valley.

Wednesday night, Strong cold advection will drive 850 mb temperatures to around -15 to -20C by Thursday morning as a strong 1040 mb high builds into Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes. A period of lake effect snow is likely downwind of Lake Ontario over the southern Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley Wednesday into Wednesday night, with lower chances for snow showers elsewhere. Lows Wednesday night in the single digits southern Adirondacks and southern Vermont to teens elsewhere.

Thursday and Friday look mainly fair and cold as high pressure moves over the area into northern New England. Highs Thursday in the teens and 20s. Lows Thursday night in the single digits and teens. Highs Friday mid 20s hill towns to mid 30s mid Hudson Valley.

By Saturday, the high shifts east and warm advection occurs once again as low pressure moves into the Ohio valley and begins to redevelop along the mid Atlantic Coast. This warm advection may take place aloft with cold air trapped at the surface which could lead to mixed precipitation or freezing rain on Saturday changing to rain Saturday night. We will have to monitor later forecasts for precipitation types. Lows Friday night in the teens and 20s and highs Saturday mid 30s to mid 40s.

AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. VFR Conditions forecast for all TAF sites through 09/00Z. Clouds will increase this afternoon and begin to lower during the evening with MVFR ceilings forecast at KPSF and KPOU by 09/06Z. Some light rain or drizzle with MVFR ceilings is possible at the TAF sites after 09/06Z. There is also the possibility of some light freezing rain or drizzle at KGFL beginning around 09/09Z.

Winds will be light and variable early this morning. Winds turn southerly later this morning and increase to 10-20 kts by afternoon with some gusts to 25 kt possible at KALB. Wind shear is in the TAFS after 08/20Z.

Outlook .

Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy Definite RA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact Likely RA. SN. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

HYDROLOGY. Temperatures will remain below normal today, so little melting and/or runoff is expected on the weekend. This will allow the snow pack to be maintained. Temperatures will likely rise to above normal values late tonight into Monday and continue into Tuesday, with periods of rain likely. There is increasing confidence that temperatures and dewpoints will rise into and above the lower 40s late Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning, especially along and south of the Mohawk Valley to southern VT. Those temperatures and dew points along with locally heavy rain could enhance snow melt.

There is uncertainty with the amount and placement of the heaviest rain, however our current forecast is for about a half an inch to an inch and half in the HSA with the highest totals in the southeast extreme over the Housatonic Basin in NW CT, and also in the west/southwest Adirondacks. MMEFS guidance varies with the NAEFS and GEFS suggesting some rivers reach action stage and the SREF suggesting some rivers reaching minor flood stage. Uncertainty in the amount of snow melt and where the heaviest rain will fall is why there is such a variety of solutions in the sources of guidance.

Some ripening and melting of the snowpack and runoff is expected, although widespread flooding is not anticipated at this time. Rises on area waterways are likely during this timeframe.

It will turn sharply colder Tuesday into Wednesday and continue through the end of the week, which should put a stop to any melting/runoff, and allow river levels to recede.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including latest observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. MA . None. VT . None.

SYNOPSIS . NAS/Wasula NEAR TERM . Wasula SHORT TERM . NAS LONG TERM . SND AVIATION . SND HYDROLOGY . NAS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPXN6 17 mi83 min S 6 24°F 1035 hPa17°F
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 30 mi83 min SSE 1.9 28°F 1031 hPa16°F
TKPN6 30 mi53 min S 11 G 13 29°F 34°F1031.7 hPa (-2.7)19°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 47 mi63 min S 7.8 G 12 37°F 19°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 49 mi53 min S 1.9 G 4.1

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY6 mi60 minSSW 310.00 miFair30°F17°F58%1031.7 hPa
Newburgh / Stewart, NY9 mi68 minN 020.00 miPartly Cloudy30°F21°F69%1031.5 hPa
Montgomery, Orange County Airport, NY17 mi59 minSSW 510.00 miFair28°F17°F63%1031.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPOU

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Last 24hr54NW9NW6NW5CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW6SW3
1 day agoS9S73CalmCalmCalmW8W11NW8NW9NW6NW4W9NW6NW5CalmCalmCalmCalm3CalmCalmCalmNW6
2 days agoW11W13
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W10NW11W9W10W5W3NW6W9W5SW6SW7W10SW7SW5S3SW4CalmCalmS5S5SE5

Tide / Current Tables for New Hamburg, Hudson River, New York
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New Hamburg
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:13 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:33 AM EST     0.19 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:26 AM EST     2.85 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:35 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:10 PM EST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:25 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:48 PM EST     2.61 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.40.90.50.20.20.81.52.12.62.82.82.521.410.50.30.51.11.72.22.52.62.4

Tide / Current Tables for Newburgh, Hudson River, New York
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Newburgh
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:08 AM EST     0.19 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:13 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:08 AM EST     2.76 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:36 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:45 PM EST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:25 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:30 PM EST     2.52 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.20.80.40.20.411.72.22.62.82.72.31.71.20.80.40.30.71.31.82.22.52.52.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.