Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wickliffe, OH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Dry weather will continue through tonight as high pressure maintains influence over the region. Some high clouds will be present across the area today, however clearing will likely occur in western zones late morning into the afternoon with eastern zones clearing a bit by sunset. Temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s today with the warmer temps in the upper 50s likely along and west of the I-75 corridor and the cooler highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s anticipated across NE OH and NW PA.

A warm front will lift northeast across region tonight into Saturday. Isentropic lift ahead of the front could result in a few light showers overnight into early Saturday morning, however PoPs won't increase until diurnal destabilization develops during the day Saturday. The warm front will probably be along/east of the I-71 corridor by the more widespread showers develop, hence the highest PoPs across the eastern half of the area. It will be quite breezy Saturday, especially during the afternoon as a 45 knot LLJ builds over the region, and gusts to 25 to 35 mph are anticipated Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. There's still some uncertainty in the mixing depth due to continued model spread for the low to mid-level moisture, so there is some potential for locally higher gusts if the mixing depths end up being higher.

There could be sufficient instability and forcing for isolated to scattered thunderstorms across portions of NE OH/NW PA late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. The wind field supports the potential for some gusty showers or isolated stronger thunderstorms, however overall confidence in severe weather potential is low since there may not be much instability to work with and storms could be out of the area before they get strong enough to cause issues.

Tonight's lows will generally be in the 40s, but delayed warm air advection will produce lows in the 30s across interior NE OH/NW PA. Saturday's highs will be above normal with 60s anticipated across the majority of the area; the only exception will be across far NE OH and NW PA.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
The aforementioned warm front will be followed by a cold front Saturday night with a trough lingering over the region through the remainder of the weekend. PoPs associated with the cold front will primarily be across NE OH/NW PA with lake effect precip likely developing by Sunday morning. The fetch supports the highest potential for lake effect precip near and especially just east of the NY/NW PA border, but a more northwesterly component to the wind may result in higher PoPs in the local area Sunday through early Monday. As of now, likely PoPs are present from roughly Erie, PA east with chance PoPs across the remainder of the primary snowbelt. Precip type will be rain during the day, although a rain/snow mix or transition to snow is likely when temps cool overnight. PoPs should decrease throughout the day Monday as high pressure builds into the region.

Temperatures will moderate late this weekend into early next week with highs in the 40s expected each day. Saturday night's lows will be in the mid to upper 30s with widespread upper 20s to lower 30s expected Sunday night and Monday night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Long range deterministic guidance continues to struggle with the evolution and progression of an upper trough and possible surface low that could move somewhere across the mid to lower Mississippi Valley and/or Ohio Valley Tuesday into Wednesday.
The local area will likely be on the northern fringe of this system, so have broad slight chance to chance PoPs that will likely be refined as confidence increases in the upcoming days.
The next system will approach from the southwest on Thursday, resulting in increasing PoPs towards the tail end of the long term period. High temperatures will generally be in the lower 40s Tuesday before warming into the mid 40s and possibly the lower 50s on Thursday.

AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/
VFR will prevail through the TAF cycle as high pressure gradually slides east. A warm front lifting across the region late tonight and Saturday morning will bring a lowering cloud deck by the end of the TAF cycle, but any showers or MVFR should hold off until after 12Z.

S to SW winds will average 5-10 knots today and tonight.

Outlook...Marginal VMC conditions with rain is likely Saturday through Sunday, with isolated thunderstorms possible in portions of northeast Ohio. Marginal VMC or IMC conditions are possible in northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania Sunday night into Monday in lake effect snow showers.

MARINE
Quiet marine conditions are expected today as high pressure remains in control, but deepening low pressure crossing the northern Great Lakes Saturday will lift a warm front across the lake late tonight and Saturday morning, quickly followed by a strong cold front Saturday night as the low crosses eastern Ontario. SSW winds of 5-10 knots today and tonight will increase to 15-25 knots from the WSW behind the warm front Saturday before turning NW at 20-30 knots behind the cold front Saturday night and Sunday. This will build wave heights to 3 to 6 feet in the central and eastern basins Saturday afternoon and 5 to 9 feet Saturday night into Sunday night. The NW winds and high waves will gradually diminish Monday, so Small Craft headlines will be needed Saturday into Monday. Light NNW winds are expected by Tuesday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.