Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oak Harbor, OH

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Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 151826 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 126 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

SYNOPSIS. A ridge of high pressure stretching from the upper Midwest to the upper Ohio Valley today will pivot northeast as a warm front approaches the region from the south tonight. Low pressure will develop along this front on Monday and pass southeast of the area on Tuesday. A ridge of high pressure returns to the region for Wednesday, while a weak area of low pressure passes through the northern Appalachians. Eventually, high pressure asserts itself over the central Appalachians on Thursday and will remain over the region into Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/. Lake effect snow continues with the westerly flow and with upstream help from Lake Michigan. Have an additional 1 to 3 inches of snow in the forecast for the snow belt through this evening with totals in some areas southeast of Interstates 90 and 86 approaching 4 inches for today. Radar trends over western Lower Michigan are down over the last hour or two and dry air is entering the region, which will limit lake effect later tonight.

Previous Discussion . With the 850 mb cold front through the forecast area this morning, lake effect snow has redeveloped over the region. Lake effect snow off Lake Michigan this morning continues to traverse east over Lake Erie and these snow showers are becoming reinvigorated over the basin. The persistent westerly flow over the lake will allow for snow to continue over NE OH and NW PA throughout the rest of today and have increased PoPs over the region. Will maintain the 1 to 2 inches of snow in the forecast for today for this area; however, am slightly concerned about totals in interior NW PA and have a mention of up to 3 inches of as persistent snows could accumulate quickly in the hills south of Interstates 90 and 86. High temperatures today remain on track to the lower 30s.

As a low pressure system enters from the west, the warm front will approach tonight. A wedge of dry air ahead of this front will move over the region and shut down much of the lake effect. Could see some lingering light snow in Erie County PA through tonight, but accumulations appear to be an inch at most, early tonight. With the surface warm front, precipitation will enter the region from the southwest overnight. The latest guidance and forecast soundings indicate that temperatures aloft appear to remain below freezing in northern Ohio, which would keep precipitation as all snow. However, towards daybreak, some warmer air could nudge into the far southern counties (i.e. - Know, Morrow, etc.) and have introduced a slight chance of freezing rain. There are still some questions as to how far north precipitation gets overnight and will not issue any headlines at this time, as there is still uncertainty. As the region stays north of the warm front, overnight lows will be in the upper 20s.

This morning, the most significant change to the forecast is for Monday. While the front lingers south of the area, the low pressure system over the Tennessee Valley begins to deepen and the placement trend is further south. With some dry air being pulled south from the northwest and no meaningful synoptic or mesoscale forcing, believe that Monday should be fairly dry over the forecast area. Precipitation will wait until Monday evening to develop with the advancing low and upper trough entering from the west. Therefore, have axed PoPs considerably over the region with any precipitation mention for the afternoon hours, if at all.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. A broad upper level trough will dive into the western United States for the early part of this week. The trough will shift east toward the local area by Wednesday morning. A deep upper level low pressure system will dive into the Great Lakes region enhancing the upper level trough. Amplifying ridge will build into the western United States forcing trough to the east. The potent upper level system will cause surface low pressure over Texas and Oklahoma to move northeast toward the Ohio Valley. The low will extend a warm front northeast toward southern Ohio by Monday night where it will become nearly stationary. The surface low pressure system will move northeast along the stationary front into the Ohio Valley by Tuesday. An 850 mb jet maximum will extend northeast across the Ohio Valley Monday night and this feature could push some mid level warming into the southern tier of the forecast area. This could cause a mix of precipitation and possibly a bit of freezing rain mixed with the rain/snow. Due to uncertainty of the timing of the surface temperatures dropping to freezing or lower will leave mention of the freezing rain out for Monday evening. As low moves northeast, a swath of light snow accumulations is expected and will produce accumulations of 1 to 3 inches of snow across the northern half of the forecast area and 2 to 4 inches across the south by Tuesday morning. Another vertically stacked low pressure system will move southeast across the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday. This feature will bring with it more moisture and a potential for another round of snow to the northeast. Some lake enhancement will take place with this feature as well. Temperatures will hover in the 30s for highs Tuesday with lows in the upper 20s. Cold air advection will push into the area Tuesday night through Wednesday night where lows Tuesday night dip into the teens to around 20 degrees and highs on Wednesday only in the middle 20s. The best push of cold air arrives Wednesday night with lows in the lower to middle teens.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Upper level trough will begin to push push off to the east as an upper level ridge moves east over the Great Lakes through Friday. Another fast moving upper level trough will advance east over the local area by Saturday. A fairly large surface high pressure will build into the area from the west as a result of the upper level ridge. A warm front will follow the high pressure Friday morning as low pressure moves into the northern Plains states. A cold front with limited moisture will move east across the region Saturday. Otherwise, with high pressure expected through much of the period, expecting mostly dry weather across the forecast area through the period. Temperatures will gradually moderate through the forecast period as highs warm back into the middle and upper 30s by Saturday with lows in the 20s.

AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/. A mix of VFR and MVFR remains over the region this afternoon as a ridge of high pressure persists over the area ahead of a warm front. MVFR was mostly limited to areas to the lee of Lake Erie, where lake effect snow showers continue with the westerly flow. However, some MVFR was entering central Ohio with the approaching warm front. Generally speaking, the trend is VFR through this evening, although some pesky MVFR will be present here and there and some more impactful lake effect snow will be around KERI through dusk. As the warm front approaches tonight, precipitation will enter and some snow is possible in and around KFDY, KMFD, and KCAK. Snow could extend further north but there is much less certainty and therefore have a dry TAF. While precipitation is uncertain, ceilings will drop to below VFR everywhere and IFR is possible where the higher chances of snow area and have a mention at KFDY and KMFD. Winds will back around to the south and then the east overnight but remain below 10 knots. The front remains south of the area for Monday and the trends for ceilings will be upward during the daytime hours.

OUTLOOK. Non-VFR possible Monday night and Tuesday with a wintry mix of rain, snow, and perhaps some freezing rain. Non-VFR possible with lake effect snow on Tuesday and Wednesday.

MARINE. Winds will be gradually shifting around to a westerly direction by tonight and diminish through the day. This will allow the small craft advisory to decrease through the day from west to east on Lake Erie. Northerly flow will develop Monday night and there is the possibility that another small craft advisory will be needed if winds increase further than currently forecast. A better chance will come Tuesday through Wednesday evening as west then northwest flow increases across the lake on the back side of low pressure that will move northeast through the Ohio Valley region. Otherwise, just light southwest winds expected Thursday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ147>149. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ145- 146.

SYNOPSIS . Sefcovic NEAR TERM . Sefcovic SHORT TERM . Lombardy LONG TERM . Lombardy AVIATION . Sefcovic MARINE . Lombardy

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
CMPO1	7 mi	110 min	W 16 G 22	33°F
TWCO1	10 mi	30 min	W 12 G 15
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH	14 mi	80 min	W 19 G 20	32°F			1019.4 hPa (+1.2)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH	16 mi	80 min	WSW 15 G 17	32°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH	20 mi	50 min	W 9.9 G 15				1019.1 hPa
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH	21 mi	56 min	W 13 G 17	32°F	36°F		1018.9 hPa	18°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH	33 mi	80 min	W 13 G 16	31°F			1017.3 hPa (+1.4)
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH	36 mi	95 min	WSW 4.1	33°F			1019 hPa	21°F
LORO1	49 mi	50 min	WSW 19 G 22	32°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH

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W8

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W14 G19

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S11 G14

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SW4 G7

S4

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Toledo - Toledo Executive Airport, OH	20 mi	27 min	W 8	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	32°F	19°F	59%	1020.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTDZ

Wind History from TDZ (wind in knots)

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W11

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W19 G26

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (15,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH

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