Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oak Harbor, OH

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Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 160754 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 354 AM EDT Thu Sep 16 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure over the area will persist through Friday before a cold front approaches the area Friday night into Saturday. This boundary will stall just north of the area across the lower Great Lakes, lifting north on Sunday as a warm front. High pressure will return on Sunday and persist through the first half of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. Early this morning, patchy fog with local visibility reduction to 1/4 statute mile or less is possible throughout the southeastern tier of counties. As a result, a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for these counties through 15Z. Overall fog coverage should begin to quickly diminish after sunrise when daytime heating allows it to burn off. With sunrise gradually becoming later and later, patches of fog may linger into the late morning hours, although becoming less dense. The morning commute in these areas will be impacted and precautions should be taking while driving.

Aside from the morning fog, high pressure over the area will keep conditions dry and in the mid to upper 70s. The potential of fog returns tonight as winds again weaken to light and variable with minimal cloud cover expected. Overnight temperatures tonight will be in the upper 50s to low 60s with the coolest temperatures across the western counties where the clouds are expected to clear out. On Friday, a southwesterly flow will allow for a gradual increase of moisture and temperatures. As a weak shortwave moves across the Great Lakes region and a lake breeze develops, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible for the areas along and east of I71. Confidence is low so have opted to keep PoPs capped at slight. High temperatures will return to above average in the low to mid 80s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Westerly to northwesterly flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances affect our CWA through Saturday as a surface cool front drifts southeastward through the region. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of the front within a relatively-moist and unstable warm sector. Overnight lows should reach the 60's Friday night. Daytime highs should range from the mid 70's in the higher terrain of northwest PA to the mid 80's along and near the I-75 corridor on Saturday. Fair weather is likely Saturday night through Sunday night as a stabilizing high pressure ridge aloft builds from the central United States. Simultaneously, the associated surface ridge affects our region as the core of this ridge shifts away from the northern Great Lakes and toward New England. Overnight lows should mainly reach the mid 50's to mid 60's Saturday night and Sunday night. Late afternoon highs on Sunday should range from the mid 70's in the higher terrain of northwest PA to the low to mid 80's across most of northern OH. The warmest readings should occur inland from Lake Erie since a weak synoptic- scale MSLP gradient and diurnal heating of surrounding land should support lake breeze development during the late morning through early evening.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Aloft, our region should be sandwiched between the high pressure ridge axis in vicinity of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic U.S. coast and a longwave trough axis shifting eastward from the Intermountain West toward the western Great Lakes and Middle MS Valley. At the surface, our region should remain along the western flank of the aforementioned high pressure ridge. However, a cold front should begin to approach our CWA from the west on Wednesday. This pattern will allow a low-level return flow of warm, humid, and probably unstable air from the Gulf of Mexico to impact our area, resulting in unusually-high humidity for late September standards. Periods of showers and thunderstorms are possible as shortwave troughs embedded in southerly to southwesterly flow aloft traverse the Upper OH Valley and eastern Great Lakes. Balmy weather continues with daily highs reaching the 70's or 80's. Overnight lows should reach the 60's.

AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/. VFR conditions with light and variable winds will persist through this TAF period for KFDY, KTOL, KCLE, and KERI as much of the fog remains in areas that have cooled fastest. It is important to note that upstream of KTOL there is an area of fog seen on satellite which will need to be monitored for any impact to KTOL, but confidence is low to include it in the TAF now.

For the remainder terminals, IFR to brief LIFR conditions are possible as fog develops along a line extending from KMFD through KYNG, which can be seen on satellite tonight. This fog will be locally dense, reducing visibilites to 1SM or less at times. Have opted to keep all terminals in IFR conditions overnight as confidence is low with regards to exactly where the densest fog will be. Near sunrise, the fog will gradually diminish and conditions should return to VFR by 15Z. Winds will remain calm and variable for all these terminals through the TAF period.

Outlook . Non-VFR possible Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon with isolated showers.

MARINE. Variable surface winds of 15 knots or less and waves of 3 feet or less are expected through this Monday as high pressure affects Lake Erie through most of the period. However, a weak cold front should drift southeast across the lake Friday night into Saturday. No marine weather headlines are anticipated at this time.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for OHZ021>023- 031>033-038. PA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . Campbell NEAR TERM . Campbell SHORT TERM . Jaszka LONG TERM . Jaszka AVIATION . Campbell MARINE . Jaszka

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
CMPO1	7 mi	92 min	SE 1 G 1.9	60°F
45165	10 mi	52 min	SE 5.8 G 7.8	68°F	73°F	1 ft
TWCO1	10 mi	52 min	SE 8 G 9.9		73°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH	14 mi	62 min	ESE 6 G 7	68°F			1018.9 hPa (+0.0)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH	16 mi	62 min	SSE 8 G 8.9	69°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH	20 mi	44 min	S 1.9 G 4.1	61°F			1018.9 hPa	58°F
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH	21 mi	44 min	SSE 1.9 G 2.9	62°F	74°F		1018.4 hPa	57°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH	33 mi	62 min	S 1 G 2.9	61°F			1018.3 hPa (+0.4)
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH	36 mi	77 min	Calm				1020 hPa
45005 - W ERIE 28NM Northwest of Cleveland, OH	38 mi	22 min	ESE 5.8 G 9.7	69°F			1019.3 hPa	59°F
LORO1	49 mi	32 min	SE 2.9 G 5.1	63°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Toledo - Toledo Executive Airport, OH	20 mi	69 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Fair	57°F	54°F	90%	1019.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTDZ

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