Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oak Harbor, OH

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Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 242348 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 648 PM EST Wed Feb 24 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will sweep east across the area this evening. High pressure from the Plains states will build east over the area on Thursday, shifting to New England on Friday. A warm front will lift back north across the area Friday night into Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. Mostly cosmetic changes to the forecast this evening to reflect the patch of clearing stretching across much of the forecast area. Lower clouds are quickly returning into NW Ohio and this gap will close over the next several hours. Outside of this, will maintain the low PoPs over NE OH/NW PA as there will be some weak lift and convergence in this region but will evaluate these chances over the next couple hours to see if we need anything above a slight chance PoP. The rest of the forecast remains on track.

Previous Discussion . A cold front has entered Northwest Ohio late this afternoon and will continue east across the area this evening as low pressure north of the lakes tracks towards New England. An area of light precipitation that moved across the area this afternoon has generally passed to the east with the region of stronger mid- level moisture advection. Coverage of precipitation was limited due to a dry sub-cloud layer with low dewpoints in the 30s. A period of partly cloudy skies and breezy winds are expected this evening before a low cloud deck seen upstream in lower Michigan arrives behind the front. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected tonight, although some breaks may return to NW ohio late. Can not rule out a few light rain/snow showers later this evening across NE Ohio and NW Pennsylvania with weak lift but any precipitation will be light and short lived given shallow moisture. Temperatures will dip back below freezing tonight with lows reaching the mid 20s.

High pressure will build over the region on Thursday with low clouds tending to scatter out. Temperatures on Thursday will be cooler and back into the mid 30s. This will be followed by good radiational cooling conditions on Thursday night with lows dipping into the upper teens to lower 20s on Thursday night.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. High pressure centered along the Mid-Atlantic Coast will continue to drift east out of the area by Friday night. This will allow for pleasant conditions to persist across the area on Friday, with high temperatures reaching the low 40s. Behind the departing high pressure, winds will shift to southwesterly across the area, allowing for increased moisture and warm air advection across the area. As an upper level shortwave trough moves across the Great Lakes region, an increase in isentropic lift is expected which will result in the ramping up of precipitation chances Friday night into Saturday. Initial precipitation may start off as a rain/snow mix, but should completely transition to rain showers overnight Friday and persist through Saturday afternoon. A chance of mixed wintry precipitation cannot be ruled out as any snow transitions to rain, however confidence is very low to mention this in the forecast.

Late on Saturday, the aforementioned low pressure is expected to deepen and quickly depart to the northeast and off the New England Coast by Sunday morning. High pressure will quickly build in east across the Great Lakes region again by Saturday night. High temperatures on Saturday are expected to be in the mid to upper 40s with overnight lows on Friday and Saturday dipping down into the low to mid 30s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. On Sunday, the high pressure discussed in the short term forecast is expected to drift east of the region as a low pressure northeast across the Ohio River Valley. As a result of the placement of this system, some of the areas in the southwestern portion of the CWA may see rain showers. Continued to maintain slight chance of PoPs with this update. High temperatures on Sunday will be in the upper 40s, possibly touching 50 in some locations, with overnight lows dropping into the low 30s.

Models continue to diverge in agreement Monday onward. On Monday it appears that some showers will linger across the eastern CWA, transitioning to lake enhanced precipitation by Monday evening as the winds shift to northwesterly. This remains very uncertain as the ECMWF is suggesting another cold front will move across the area sometime on Monday with a weak low pressure that develops over the Great Lakes. Confidence is very low about which solution will occur, so opted to keep low chance of PoPs in the forecast through Monday evening. High pressure will build in across the area on Tuesday, bring a likely break in precipitation before another low pressure develops in the south-central United States and begins to track northeastward, bringing another chance of precipitation on Wednesday. Temperatures look to remain in the 40s for much of the long term period, with overnight lows in the 20s to low 30s.

AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/. The airspace remains in a transition zone of sorts with a mid- deck of clouds to the east, a pocket of clearing across the central portions of the area, and then lower MVFR ceilings entering from the northwest. This entire complex will pivot east over time and MVFR conditions will overtake the entire airspace over the next several hours. As these low ceilings arrive, winds will diminish across the region and veer to a northwest direction, as evident across lower Michigan. High pressure will build into the region on Thursday and clouds will begin scattering out from west to east and MVFR ceilings will erode. Clear conditions with perhaps some scattered cirrus will be across the airspace by this time on Thursday.

Outlook . Non-VFR possible with periods of rain and/or snow Friday night into Saturday. MVFR possible again on Sunday.

MARINE. Southwesterly winds of 25 to 30 knots will continue through this evening, before gradually shifting to become northwesterly and weakening to 10 to 15 knots by Thursday morning. From Vermilion OH to Ripley NY, waves will build to 4 to 6 feet in areas of the nearshore zones that are ice free. As the winds shift to northwesterly this evening, ice floes from the open waters in the central basin are expected to begin drifting back towards the southern shoreline of Lake Erie. As a result of these various hazards, a Marine Weather Statement has been issued through 9Z Thursday.

By Thursday night, a weak shortwave trough is expected to move across the lake, resulting in southwesterly winds of 10 to 15 knots. High pressure will build east across the area on Friday, allowing for light southerly winds through Friday evening. A low pressure moving along the Ohio River Valley will result in an increase in winds to 15 to 25 knots from the southwest on Saturday, persisting into Saturday evening. High pressure on Sunday will again weaken winds across Lake Erie to 10 to 15 knots from the south.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . KEC NEAR TERM . KEC/Sefcovic SHORT TERM . Campbell LONG TERM . Campbell AVIATION . Sefcovic MARINE . Campbell

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
CMPO1	7 mi	128 min	WNW 9.9 G 15	41°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH	20 mi	50 min	WNW 9.9 G 14	39°F			1014.8 hPa	30°F
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH	21 mi	50 min	W 19 G 23	38°F	33°F		1014 hPa	28°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH	33 mi	38 min	WNW 14 G 19	39°F			1013.5 hPa (+5.7)
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH	36 mi	113 min	WSW 5.1	42°F			1012 hPa	34°F
LORO1	49 mi	68 min	W 20 G 22	38°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH

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SW11 G15

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SE12 G15

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W10 G24

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W13 G20

SW10 G15

SW12 G18

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Toledo - Toledo Executive Airport, OH	20 mi	45 min	WNW 12	10.00 mi	Overcast	39°F	31°F	73%	1016.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTDZ

Wind History from TDZ (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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