Sunrise 6:35 AM   Sunset 8:25 PM Moonrise 9:38 PM   Moonset 6:11 AM

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LEZ143 Expires:202404252015;;348985 Fzus51 Kcle 251318 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 918 am edt Thu apr 25 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez142-143-252015- maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh- 918 am edt Thu apr 25 2024
This afternoon - Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming east 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Tonight - East winds 5 to 15 knots. Clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Friday - East winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet. Friday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Saturday through Monday.
the water temperature off toledo is 52 degrees, off cleveland 48 degrees, and off erie 49 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 251732 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 132 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will build over the eastern Great Lakes today before drifting east off the coast of New England by Friday night. A warm front will lift across the area late Friday into Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
910 AM Update...
Temperatures above freezing at this point and dropped the Freeze Warning an hour early. Minor temperature adjustments for this afternoon. Quiet weather today.

Previous discussion... High pressure is currently centered over the eastern Great Lakes region this morning. Most of the area is under clear skies clear but there are a few patches of clouds around 3000 feet over north central Ohio this morning. Where there are clear skies this morning, temperatures have fallen into the upper 20s and lower 30s away from the immediate lakeshore. The ongoing Freeze Warning will continue until 10 am this morning.

Fair weather conditions are expected today with mostly sunny skies and light winds due to high pressure across the area. High temperatures will climb only into the lower and middle 50s which is below average for late April. Mostly clear skies and light winds again tonight will allow for temperatures to fall back into the middle and upper 30s. Patchy to areas of frost will be possible again tonight and additional frost headline may be needed. An upper level ridge will move into the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes region on Friday. Winds will return from the southeast on Friday 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Skies will start out mostly sunny but high clouds will increase late in the day. High temperatures Friday will rebound into the middle 60s to around 70 degrees.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A warm front is still expected to lift northeast across the area Friday night into Saturday morning, bringing a period of increased shower chances with a bit of thunder possible as well. Expect activity to spread in from the west Friday evening and reach the Ohio/Pennsylvania boarder by sunrise Saturday. Expect locations west of I-77 to dry out by Saturday morning, with locations farther east seeing activity exit by midday. Not expecting a heavy rain threat or even much thunder, though guidance remains consistent enough so still hit most of the area with likely to categorical (60-80%) POPs for at least a brief period Friday night or early Saturday, with "chance" (~50%) wording towards Marion and Mount Vernon. Once the warm front and its associated showers exit expect a mainly dry rest of the weekend in the open warm sector beneath ridging aloft. With daytime heating, some modest instability will develop both Saturday and Sunday afternoons. In addition, some occasional continued warm air/moisture advection may provide modest lift at times. Given this, still have a mix of slight chance to low chance (generally 20-30%)
Saturday afternoon through Sunday night, though once the warm front lifts through there will be some sunshine with any rain sparse.

The big story this weekend will be the summer-like temperatures spreading in. Lows Friday night will range quite a bit, from the 40s in interior PA where there will be a window of radiational cooling early to near 60 along I-75. Highs on Saturday will range from the upper 60s to mid 70s in Northwest PA (warmest north of I-90) to the mid 70s to lower 80s across Ohio. Lows Saturday night will only dip into the upper 40s to mid 50s. Highs Sunday will generally reach the low to mid 80s area-wide, just slightly cooler on some hill tops in Northeast OH and Northwest PA. Lows Sunday night will again struggle to cool below the low to mid 60s. Aggressively warmed locations north of I-90 in Erie County PA for afternoon highs this weekend compared to our starting model blend based on what happens in the Erie, PA area nearly every time there's a warm southerly wind.

It will be breezy to windy at times this weekend. Southeasterly downslope flow may boost gusts to near 40 MPH along the Erie County PA shoreline overnight Friday night into Saturday morning.
Otherwise, gusts of 30-35 MPH are likely area-wide on Saturday, briefly around 40 MPH in parts of Northwest OH during the late morning and early afternoon. It will be a bit less breezy on Sunday with gusts of 20-30 MPH expected, up to 35 MPH in Northwest OH.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The pattern of a western trough and eastern ridge will break down during the long term as the trough ejects east out of the Plains and causes the ridge to flatten out and shift off the east coast. A cold front is still expected to cross late Monday night or Tuesday.
Generally quieter weather builds in behind this front into midweek, though there are hints that a subtle northwest flow shortwave and cold front may move through Wednesday afternoon or night.

We'll start mainly dry and very warm Monday morning, though shower and thunder chances increase from the west late Monday into Monday night. Have a period of likely POPs area-wide from west to east at some point between late Monday and early Tuesday, as there appears to be sufficient lift with upper-level divergence ahead of the approaching trough and the cold front itself along with a sufficiently moist airmass ahead of the cold front. Certainly can be some thunder with the cold frontal passage, but continue to be unimpressed by any severe weather potential given a lack of an elevated mixed layer and somewhat marginal low-level moisture quality to yield more significant instability...along with what appears to be a fairly middling amount of shear. Worst case may be a stronger storm or two spreading in from the west Monday afternoon or evening. Models are in better agreement now that the front itself along with the shortwave trough axis will not yet be east of the area by Tuesday morning so have increased POPs east of the I-71 corridor for Tuesday, though still expect a drying trend from the west through the day with all rain exiting by Tuesday evening.

After another very warm day on Monday (likely low-mid 80s outside of Northwest Ohio, where clouds and rain chances will arrive sooner)
temperatures cool modestly for Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs still getting into the mid 60s to mid 70s. Overnight lows may still struggle to fall below 60 Monday night before trending a bit cooler (mainly in the 50s) for Tuesday and Wednesday nights.

AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/
VFR. Only significant weather is some wind direction changes, mostly under 12kts, but a couple terminals getting above towards the end of the period. CLE currently has some 15-20kts gusts as well. FEW-SCT cirrus for the most part. No precipitation.

Outlook...Non-VFR may return in periodic showers and thunderstorms early Friday night through Monday.

MARINE
Winds are starting this morning fairly light, though will increase to 10-15 knots out of the east-northeast this afternoon. A brief period of more due northeast winds at 15 to 18 knots is expected to progress southwest down the lakeshore from Conneaut, OH to near Avon Lake during the afternoon, which will build waves to 2 to nearly 4 feet, especially between Vermilion and Willowick. These conditions don't quite warrant a Small Craft Advisory, but be advised that conditions will turn relatively unpleasant off of Cleveland this afternoon. Otherwise, winds will generally remain in the 10-15 knot range through Friday morning. Winds will increase to 15-20 knots Friday afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching warm front. The long fetch will build waves across the western and central basins.
The wind forecast for late Friday has trended slightly higher with the inclusion of higher-resolution guidance coming into range, with the wave forecast increasing to a period of 2-4 or 3-5 foot waves in the central and western basin late Friday afternoon into the evening. A Small Craft Advisory will need to be considered by future shifts mainly west of Avon Lake for late Friday. Winds will turn more southeast into Friday night, pushing the larger waves into Canadian waters. As the warm front crosses early Saturday winds will turn southwesterly and increase to 20-25 knots. Still think we'll likely need a period of wind-driven Small Craft Advisories for most or all nearshore waters Saturday morning, with the offshore flow building 3-5 or 4-7 foot waves in the open waters, especially in the central basin. Southwest winds slacken to around 15 knots by Saturday afternoon and continue similarly through Monday.

There is a low risk for isolated thunderstorms over the lake at times Friday night through Monday morning. Greater potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms may late Monday into Monday night as a cold front crosses, but confidence in timing isn't high.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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