Wednesday, October16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oak Harbor, OH

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:44AMSunset 6:52PM Wednesday October 16, 2019 8:31 AM EDT (12:31 UTC) Moonrise 7:41PMMoonset 9:17AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ143 Expires:201910161430;;782168 Fzus51 Kcle 160737 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 337 Am Edt Wed Oct 16 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez142>144-161430- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- 337 Am Edt Wed Oct 16 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday morning...
Today..West winds 15 to 25 knots increasing to 30 knots. Showers early, then a chance of showers from late morning on. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tonight..West winds to 30 knots becoming northwest. A chance of showers. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Thursday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Friday through Sunday. The water temperature off toledo is 60 degrees, off cleveland 65 degrees, and off erie 60 degrees.
LEZ143


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oak Harbor, OH
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location: 41.61, -83.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 161058
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
658 am edt Wed oct 16 2019

Synopsis
Deepening low pressure over the central great lakes will move
northeast into ontario today. A cold front extending south from
the low into ohio will push east of the area early today. Much
cooler air will swing southeast behind the cold front. Tonight
and Thursday, deep low pressure will develop and move from
delmarva northeast along the new england coast. High pressure
will build in from the west Thursday night and Friday.

Near term through tonight
Update... Cold front now through kcle with dry slot moving into
the northwest. Thunderstorms were mainly across eastern counties
while showers were behind the front to the west. Will drop
mention of thunder west through the morning but continue east
for another few hours. Will tweak pops, weather and clouds
through the morning based on current satellite and radar.

Original... Cold front was now in the tol area with winds now
out out the west. Current timing suggests the front will reach
near a keri- kyng line by 12z. Expecting a 2 to 4 hours window
of precip with and ahead of the front. Models do show CAPE from
500 to 1000 j kg moving across the area with the front so
thunder remains quite possible through morning. During the day
today, cold air will continue spilling into the with temps at
850mb dropping to around 2-4c depending on model. Expecting
scattered showers with cold air aloft across the region. This
evening, bufkit shows lake induced capes reaching 900-1100 j kg
with el's between 20 and 25kft. Given this will need to continue
the mention of thunder off the lake into nern oh and nwrn pa.

Thursday, wrap around moisture will continue to feed into nern
oh and nwrn pa so will continue with likely to categorical pops
for the traditional snowbelt locations. Highs today and Thursday
mostly in the 50s.

Short term Thursday through Saturday night
Low pressure over new england will move northeast to new
brunswick Thursday night and Friday, with high pressure building
east across the great lakes and ohio valley region. This will
bring a swift end to lake effect precip that remains across
northwest pa Thursday night. The ridge will be east of the area
Saturday night as a weak cold front approaches the area from the
west. The GFS gem keep the front northwest of the area as
ridging quickly builds back into the area, while the ECMWF for
the last few runs take a strong front into the area. Have opted
for slight chance pops Saturday night across the area to account
for the consistent ECMWF solution. Below normal temperatures
Thursday night and Friday will become above normal by Saturday
with WAA across the area.

Long term Sunday through Tuesday
High pressure will build east across the area on Sunday and
Sunday night. Low pressure will deepen across the upper midwest
Sunday night into Monday, forcing a cold front east across the
area sometime late Monday into Tuesday. Model signals are
consistent enough to warrant high chance low likely pops at this
time. High pressure builds into the area Tuesday from the west,
with some lingering lake effect precip possible across NW pa.

Sunday and Monday will see above normal highs in the upper 60s
to low 70s. Highs will return to near normal with the front on
Tuesday.

Aviation 12z Wednesday through Sunday
A cold front now just east of kcle and should be east of the
area by 14z or so. Radar showed showers and embedded thunder far
east with showers elsewhere. Satellite showed a dry slot moving
into the west. Will continue with the mention of thunder for the
next couple hours far east, otherwise will just go with showers
through the morning. Also, did try to time the dry slot into fdy
and mfd. Should probably be just east of ktol at 12z. Wrap
around MVFR CIGS will move in from the west today as the front
heads east. Could see scattered showers with cold air aloft at
any location but expect lake effect rain showers to develop this
afternoon into nern ohio and nwrn pa, continuing overnight.

Capes off the lake approach 1000j kg overnight so will also
have thunder into keri

Outlook Non-vfr likely in lake effect rain showers at near
keri through Thursday. These conditions may persist into Friday
morning. Non-vfr possible in showers and thunderstorms on
Sunday.

Marine
A cold front currently across the western basin will race east
across the lake this morning. Winds ahead of the front out of
the south will sharply become westerly as the front moves
through. There could be an initial burst of 20-25 kt winds
immediately behind the front, but will decrease a bit until
better mixing colder air aloft and stronger winds aloft move
over the late later this morning into the afternoon. Will go
ahead and leave the start times of the small craft advisory the
same. A surface low will deepen across northeastern lake huron
through the day, with a strong 925-850mb jet core diving
southeast across the lake. Confidence continues to increase for
a brief period of low end gales across the central basin, so
have hoisted a gale watch for a brief period of time from
midnight through tomorrow morning in the central eastern basin
open waters. Hi-res guidance seems to be trending in a stronger
low with a stronger low level jet core and better mixing, so if
these trends hold, an upgrade to a gale warning may be needed
sometime today. Winds will begin to subside Thursday morning,
but small craft advisory conditions will persist through
Thursday, possibly through Thursday night into Friday morning as
northwest winds gradually decrease. A ridge will quickly build
east across the lake Friday, with southerly winds ramping up
briefly Saturday before a weak front moves across the lake
Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Friday for lez145>149.

Gale watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for
lez166>169.

Small craft advisory until 11 am edt Thursday for lez142>144.

Synopsis... Tk
near term... Tk
short term... Greenawalt
long term... Greenawalt
aviation... Tk
marine... Greenawalt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CMPO1 7 mi122 min W 8 G 18 50°F
45165 10 mi22 min W 18 G 23 51°F 59°F2 ft42°F
TWCO1 10 mi22 min WNW 25 G 31 59°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 14 mi32 min W 21 G 24 52°F 1003.4 hPa (-0.4)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 16 mi32 min W 25 G 30 50°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 20 mi44 min WNW 9.9 G 14 48°F 1004.3 hPa41°F
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 21 mi50 min W 12 G 19 52°F 62°F1003.5 hPa45°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 33 mi32 min W 8.9 G 12 50°F 1002.4 hPa (-0.3)
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 36 mi107 min SW 1.9 51°F 1005 hPa49°F
45005 - W ERIE 28NM Northwest of Cleveland, OH 38 mi32 min W 21 G 27 54°F 1003.4 hPa (-0.5)44°F
LORO1 49 mi62 min W 24 G 27 54°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Toledo - Toledo Executive Airport, OH20 mi39 minW 1110.00 miA Few Clouds47°F43°F86%1004.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTTF

Wind History from TTF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS7S9
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S9SE6CalmE5E4SE3SE4SE6S6S5SW8SW7SW12
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1 day agoW9W10
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W9SW5NW5NW7N5NW5NW4CalmCalmSW3W4W8W6SW5W7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.