Saturday, December14, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Oak Harbor, OH

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:48AMSunset 5:05PM Saturday December 14, 2019 11:20 AM EST (16:20 UTC) Moonrise 7:37PMMoonset 10:06AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ143 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- 331 Am Est Sat Dec 14 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Sunday morning...
Today..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Patchy fog this morning. A chance of rain and snow showers this morning, then a chance of snow showers with a slight chance of rain showers early this afternoon. A slight chance of snow showers late. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Sunday..West winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. A chance of snow overnight. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Monday through Wednesday. The water temperature off toledo is 37 degrees, off cleveland 40 degrees, and off erie 38 degrees.
LEZ143 Expires:201912141530;;759006 FZUS51 KCLE 140831 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 331 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ143-144-141530-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oak Harbor, OH
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location: 41.61, -83.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 141442 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 942 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure over southern West Virginia will move northeast today and deepen rapidly. High pressure will build southeast through the central Great Lakes tonight through Sunday. Another low pressure system will move northeast through the Ohio Valley late Monday and Monday night and off the New England coast Tuesday. A ridge of high pressure will build northeast into the eastern Great Lakes through mid week followed by an Alberta Clipper Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. Rain is beginning to transition to rain/snow and to an all snow in some areas. The transition to all snow is occurring earlier than expected, which is due to cooler temperatures than expected in some areas. The timing of the transition to all snow will be heavily dependent on hourly surface temperatures today, which will be a significant challenge given the variance across the area and small changes having a big impact on the forecast. Model guidance is too warm in areas like Mansfield, Marion, Wooster, inland areas of Cuyahoga, Summit Medina, and Geauga Counties, but are too cold in northwest Ohio and lakeshore communities. This makes it a challenge because no one model is performing best, and thus makes it difficult to generate precipitation type and snowfall forecast. Have increased snowfall amounts a little bit but if cooling trend continues, will have to increase snowfall amounts even further. Currently have widespread accumulations of around half an inch with up to 2 inches in Geauga and Ashtabula Counties in Ohio. In Northwest Pennsylvania, have up to 7 inches in eastern parts of inland Erie County and 2 to 4 inches in Crawford County.

Original Discussion . An upper level trough of low pressure will move east across the Great Lakes and become negatively tilted by later this morning. The transition of the upper level trough will cause low pressure over southern West Virginia to rapidly intensify later this afternoon. The low will initially bring abundant moisture to the local area and then as the flow shifts around to the north, colder air will be forced south and this should change the precipitation over to all snow from west to east. Snow could be mixed with the rain over the western half of the forecast area through the morning hours. This will be a difficult forecast for northwest Pennsylvania because the changeover timing is highly dependent on how fast the cold air descends through the column. Model soundings indicate gradual cooling aloft and the surface being the last to go below freezing. Expecting heaviest snow to occur in northwest Pennsylvania to occur this afternoon and evening and then transition to lake effect that will affect northeast Ohio as well. Inversion height will rise to around 7000 feet tonight and enough synoptic moisture lingers to support snow. There is the possibility that we could see higher snow accumulations overnight depending on how organized the lake effect becomes. Snow threat diminishes Sunday afternoon and evening as inversion settles down and drier air works into the region. Therefore, will go ahead and hoist a winter weather advisory for inland Erie county in Pennsylvania. Snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches can be expected in the advisory area. Lesser accumulations expected along the lakeshore and south of Erie county.

For the rest of the forecast area, expecting the rain/snow mix in the west at Toledo/Findlay and mainly rain elsewhere. Then as low pulls out to the east, the threat for precipitation outside of the snowbelt areas diminishes.

Temperatures will likely max out by mid day across the area ahead of the cold air advection and will see colder temperatures tonight. Cold air advection will continue through tomorrow with highs in the lower 30s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Snow showers will be ending or diminishing to flurries fairly quickly Sunday evening. The flow will be backing with a brief stay of high pressure Sunday evening. The next system originating from the Texas panhandle will develop and move to the lower Ohio Valley for Monday night/Tuesday. With cold air initially in place and warm air advancing aloft, this system is likely to yield a wintry mix, especially across the southern/southeastern counties. Have freezing rain chances mentioned, but the track of the low will be critical and will need to closely monitor. This system may yield a Winter Weather Advisory for the area Monday into Monday night. Did limit PoPs some Sunday night/early Monday with an initial weak wave and a more southern track. Colder air filters in behind this system with a changeover to all snow Monday night. Snow departs Tuesday with dry air and backing flow. Lake effect to take over though late Tuesday night with another surge of colder air and deeper moisture. After temperatures staying within an upper 20 to low/mid 30s range from Sunday night through Tuesday, Tuesday night's lows are expected to drop into the teens.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. With the surge of colder air for Wednesday/Thursday and a continued west-northwest flow, lake effect snow will be a possibility. Will need to refine precip chances for the snowbelt with coming days. There is a lot of variation in the amount of moisture that will be available. Toward Friday, the upper ridge begins to build/shift overhead. Therefore for Wed/Thu will have highs in the upper 20s/lower 30s respectively, moderating to the mid/upper 30s for Friday.

AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/. A mix of VFR to LIFR expected across the local area as low pressure moves northeast along the Appalachian Mountains. This system will continue to bring rain that will become mixed with and change over to snow as colder air moves into the area behind the low. The problem with this forecast is that temperatures are still tricky in timing the changeover to snow. Plan on best chance of snow over the eastern portions of the forecast area this afternoon into tonight. Patchy dense fog is affecting the portions of the area at this time and will remain through the morning hours. Improving visibilities will take place in the fog department after sunrise. Some improvement of conditions will take place later tonight as low pressure pulls out to the northeast. There is the possibility for some lake effect snow developing tonight at Erie.

OUTLOOK. Non-VFR possible Monday and Tuesday with periods of rain and/or snow.

MARINE. Have made timing and areal adjustments to the upcoming Small Craft Advisory with the latest wind and wave guidance. Deepening low pressure moving from the mid-Atlantic to New England today will increase winds on the lake and bring them around from the north to the west-northwest. West winds will continue from tonight into Sunday with a peak a solid 30 knots. Not anticipating any Gale concerns though with the low center quite removed from the local area. Wind/waves diminish/subside later Sunday. Winds will back with a brief stay of high pressure Sunday night, but respond to low pressure moving from the mid-Mississippi Valley to West Virginia between Monday and Tuesday. Northeast to northwest winds will make for a choppy lake early Tuesday. Will likely need a Small Craft Advisory by Tuesday evening through Wednesday with a stronger west- northwest flow between an advancing cold front cross the Great Lakes and a building high across the Ohio Valley.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for PAZ002. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST Sunday for LEZ147>149. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday for LEZ143-144. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Sunday for LEZ145-146.

SYNOPSIS . Lombardy NEAR TERM . Lombardy/Saunders SHORT TERM . Oudeman LONG TERM . Oudeman AVIATION . Lombardy MARINE . Oudeman


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CMPO1 7 mi111 min WNW 4.1 G 5.1 36°F
TWCO1 10 mi21 min NW 8.9 G 9.9
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 14 mi21 min NW 12 G 13 36°F 1002.4 hPa (-0.9)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 16 mi81 min WNW 8.9 G 9.9 35°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 20 mi51 min NW 5.1 G 6 37°F 1003.1 hPa32°F
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 21 mi51 min W 8 G 28 36°F 36°F1002.2 hPa35°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 33 mi31 min WNW 7 G 11 36°F 1000.7 hPa
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 36 mi96 min WNW 2.9 37°F 1002 hPa36°F
LORO1 49 mi51 min NW 11 G 14 37°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Toledo - Toledo Executive Airport, OH20 mi28 minNW 54.00 miFog/Mist38°F35°F89%1003.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTTF

Wind History from TTF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6S4CalmCalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4NW4
1 day agoS8S8S11
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S8S3S9S4S5S4S3S3S3S5S7Calm
2 days agoSW16
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W10W7W6W6W3CalmCalm--CalmCalm----------S6S9S7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.