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LEZ142 Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh-reno Beach To The Islands Oh- The Islands To Vermilion Oh- 950 Pm Est Tue Nov 28 2023
Overnight..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Friday through Sunday.
the water temperature off toledo is 42 degrees, off cleveland 48 degrees, and off erie 45 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 290815 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 315 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

SYNOPSIS
A weak trough passing through the Great Lakes will graze our area today. Mild southwest flow will develop on Thursday ahead of an approaching low pressure and cold front, with these features moving through our area Friday and Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
All Lake Effect Snow Warnings have been dropped as the lake effect has shifted out over Lake Erie. Any lingering light snow early this morning in northeastern Erie County will not amount to more than half an inch of new accumulation before ending.

A low-mid level trough axis will cross the region this afternoon. It will bring an increase in mid-level clouds but should not bring precipitation. Winds over the lake will veer slightly more onshore behind the trough later this afternoon and evening, but with mid-level warm air advection well underway by then with a dry airmass am not sure if much lake effect snow will be left to over the lake push towards Erie County by then.
Have low POPs to cover this potential, with any new snow less than 1 inch. Otherwise, it will be breezy today with gusts 20-30 MPH this afternoon as highs range from near 30 in interior Northwest PA to the upper 30s/lower 40s west of I-71. Quiet weather for tonight and Thursday with some passing mid to high- level clouds at times and continued southwesterly breezes. Gusts of 20-30 MPH can be expected again Thursday. The hair spray is getting a workout this week. Highs on Thursday will be much milder, ranging from the mid 40s east to low 50s west.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Pattern change forthcoming with the flow aloft/500mb becoming southwesterly and dominated by the southerly jet stream. This will mean a milder pattern with near normal to slightly above normal temperatures and progressive systems through the CWA. The first will be from a trough axis ejecting northeastward out of the southern plains region towards the Ohio Valley. This will be a filling system both at the surface and aloft, but lingering low/mid level frontogenesis and low level moisture transport into the region will make this a fairly decent rain maker for the bulk of the CWA. Given the way that the operational models have a fair amount of spread in their solutions with the track of the surface low, expect some slight deviations in the upcoming forecasts for this period of time as the details become more fine tuned. Any further north track such as the NAM is suggesting might dry out the southern zones a bit in some surface/low level warm air advection, forcing the steadier rain further north out over Lake Erie. For now, preferring the GEFS solution which is closer in line with the longer range operational models. A further north track would also likely lead to forecast higher temperatures out ahead of the surface low. As this forecast sits, max precipitation will likely be in the western zones and along the lakeshore, with the southeastern zones the lowest QPF.
System exits Saturday without any appreciable change in airmass and 850mb temperatures remaining above zero.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Another weak trough axis swings through Sunday with brief precipitation for the region in a low QPF event while a broader upper level trough digs into the Great Lakes. This will drop the temperatures a bit towards the end of the extended, but should still be above freezing during the daytime early next week. The long term will become an unsettled period as well with the counter clockwise flow rotating PVA aloft and a clipper type system through the CWA.

AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/
Lake effect snow will continue to bring visibility restrictions to ERI through 8 or 9z before lifting northeast of the terminal.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected at all sites through the TAF period. A cold front will graze the area during the afternoon and may bring some broken ceilings in the 5000-1000 foot range, but am not expecting any precip or non-VFR ceilings.

Winds are veering southwesterly at 7 to 13 knots early this morning. Winds will increase out of the southwest to 12 to 18 knots with gusts to 25 knots by midday, before gradually coming down into this evening.

Outlook...Non-VFR with periods of rain areawide is expected Thursday night through Friday night. Scattered rain showers are possible again Sunday.

MARINE
Winds come back around to the southwest/offshore for the western basin of Lake Erie today 15-20kts, but running nearly parallel to the shoreline east of Cleveland through Dunkirk NY tonight. Wave heights remain 4-6ft along the shoreline tonight. These winds around 20kts will become more southerly again Thursday with an approaching low pressure system from the southwest in a more offshore flow, and the higher wave heights will be relegated to the open water zones of Lake Erie. Winds will still be 15-20kts however during this period. Conditions quiet down Friday into the weekend.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for LEZ142>149.

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