Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Williston, OH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Outside of a primarily dry cold frontal passage tonight into Wednesday morning, generally quiet weather is expected for the near term period as high pressure builds behind the front on Wednesday.

For this morning, beginning to see signs of fog develop on satellite along and west of the I-71 corridor across Northwest Ohio. This area of fog is supported by multiple HRRR members and would appear to linger perhaps into mid-morning if it can continue to become established over the next couple of hours. Otherwise, a cold front will move south across the area tonight into Wednesday morning, though the current guidance favors this to be a generally dry front with limited available low- level moisture.

High pressure will build south across the Great Lakes on Wednesday behind the front, with temperatures falling slightly below average in the low to mid-60s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
The main concern for the short term period will be the potential for frost/freeze conditions Wednesday and Thursday night, particularly along and east of the I-71 corridor as high pressure continues to expand south and east across the region.
Otherwise, mainly quiet and dry weather is expected for much of the short term period. A warm front will lift north through the region Friday night which may result in scattered rain showers, especially across the northern half of the area.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A more active weather pattern will develop for the long term period as a low pressure system sweeps east through the Great Lakes on Saturday into Sunday, bringing much-needed widespread rain to the region.

Widespread rain and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms are most likely to arrive Saturday night into Sunday as a large upper-level trough moves east through the Upper Great Lakes, extending a cold front across the area. Forecast confidence for timing is medium-high given the upper-level model consensus.
Forecast uncertainty begins to increase later Sunday and beyond as the upper-level pattern begins to become more chaotic in terms of the upper-level trough becoming negatively or positively tilted. A cooler air mass is ultimately expected to arrive behind the front on Monday with seasonably-cool temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s and a modest westerly breeze of 15 to 20 mph.

Above-average temperatures will arrive ahead of the weekend system, with highs reaching the upper 70s to perhaps lower 80s in some spots across Northwest Ohio. Temperatures are not expected to near record- highs at this time which currently sit in the mid-80s.

AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/
Aviation conditions across the region are mixed with IFR/LIFR fog and low stratus in North Central and Northwest Ohio and some MVFR ceilings in Northeast Ohio and Northwest PA. Conditions will take a few hours to improve in the west with daytime heating and mixing and ceilings will take time to erode and push eastward in NE OH/NW PA. With that, have non-VFR through 15z for most sites before improving to VFR with light northeast flow late this morning through the rest of the daytime hours. A cold front will move through the region this afternoon and winds will shift to north and slightly increase. A mid-level cloud deck will enter the region tonight behind the front and ahead of a cooler high pressure system.

Outlook...VFR expected before periods of rain showers with non- VFR on Saturday.

MARINE
A ridge over the lake will maintain light northeast flow for the first half of the day. A cold front will cross the lake this afternoon and strong northerly flow up to 20 kts will overtake the lake through Wednesday night. Waves over the central basin are expected to build to at least 4 ft and have issued a Small Craft Advisory for Vermilion to Conneaut from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM on Wednesday.

High pressure will enter behind the front for Wednesday and Thursday and flow over the lake will decrease. High pressure will shift east Thursday night into Friday and winds will back to the east then southeast by Friday afternoon. A warm front will lift north across the lake on Friday night and southerly flow will increase for Friday night and Saturday back into the 15 to 20 kt range, as a larger low pressure system will enter for the weekend. There is certainly potential for marine headlines this weekend.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Wednesday for LEZ145>148.