Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Tiverton, RI

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tiverton, RI

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Area Discussion for - Boston, MA

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FXUS61 KBOX 282306 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 706 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023

SYNOPSIS
A sunny and warm afternoon and evening is in store today. We then have a brief cool down Monday, especially across eastern MA as a backdoor front sweeps across the area. Warming trend begins Tuesday, with potential for 90 degree temperatures Thursday into Friday. A cold front brings the next chance for showers with a few thunderstorms Friday night into early Saturday, although soaking rains are not likely. Temperatures then trend cooler than normal for next weekend with a period of cooler onshore flow.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
700 PM Update:

The back door cold front is currently making its way through Maine bringing gusty winds of 30-35mph. Given the peak wind gust observations behind the front, opted to bump up winds this evening behind the front. The front will reach northern MA around 06-07Z and exit southern New England around 12Z.

Previous Discussion:

Tonight clear and quiet weather continues under high pressure.
However, across northern and especially northeastern MA the first half of the night will be quite a bit milder than the second half thanks to initial warm air advection (925 mb temps jump to +20C)
followed by a backdoor cold front. This will keep surface temps in the mid to upper 60s through around midnight before dropping into the upper 50s/low 60s along with gusty winds behind the front. The front is starved of moisture so not expecting any rain to accompany it but we will see a brief period of increased cloudcover.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Thus, Monday will be quite a bit cooler than Sunday, especially the closer you get to the eastern MA coast as onshore northeasterly flow over the ocean with SSTs in the low to mid 50s keeps temps limited to the upper 60s. Further inland highs make it into the mid 70s while western MA and CT will see highs in the upper 70s and low 80s in the CT valley. The day will start gusty as the shortwave dropping through helps to induce a 25 to 35 kt 925 mb jet which should mix down enough to see wind gusts in the 20 to 25 mph range, even to 30 mph over Cape Cod and the islands. The jet then moves off and winds diminish by sunset. Overnight Monday the high continues to expand overhead leaving clear skies and light winds. Lows in the post frontal airmass will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler than the night previous, in the 40s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Highlights:

* Warm and dry weather with potential for 90-degree temps Thurs and Fri. Low humidity levels.

* Sct showers/storms Fri night into early Sat, but not a washout.

* Cold front moves in either Fri or Fri night, bringing our next chance for rain with a few t-storms also possible.

Details:

Ensembles remain in good agreement on the mid-level pattern through Thurs, as a higher geopotential height-over-lower geopotential height (Rex block) pattern dominates the pattern. As the upper ridge of higher heights aloft moves into New England Wed and Thurs, increasing subsidence will maintain a dry weather pattern but also result in significant warmup towards temperatures resembling summerlike values, albeit without the humidity we often see in the summer months. Given the recent and persistent spell of dry weather along with rather deep mixing, temperatures may end up overachieving guidance especially in the interior.

The warmup begins on Tues with highs back into the 70s (mid 60s near the coastlines), and continuing into the lower to mid 80s Wed (upper 60s/low 70s South coastal areas). While high temperatures into Thurs and Fri should reach into the mid 80s to lower 90s, low humidity levels (dewpoints 40s to 50s) mean the thresholds for significant heat/Heat Advisory criteria are unlikely to be met. Nonetheless still very warm to hot. Coolest lows Tue night in the 40s to lower 50s, though these also steadily increase each night with 50s in the forecast for Wed and low to mid 60s lows for many on Thurs.

Models continue to advertise a cold front moving southward from Canada around the later Fri to early Sat timeframe, a little later than prior guidance was indicating. This front will also offer our next chance for showers with a few t-storms also possible, although not likely to be a washout or put much of a dent into the spell of dry weather given the progressive nature to the front and a shorter duration of related showers/storms. Kept lower end PoP in the forecast for Fri late-day into early Sat AM, better albeit low probs for thunder around or just after sundown.

Fairly good agreement on the early part of next weekend featuring a break from the very warm temps, as a pronounced shortwave trough disturbance aloft digs into ME/Nova Scotia vicinity, with cooler NE onshore flow returning for Sat.

Tuesday:

Tuesday through Thursday:

The brief cooldown on Memorial Day looks to be a distant memory, with a multi-day warm-up with summerlike temps in the forecast for Wed and especially Thurs. This occurs as a midlevel ridge associated with a Rex block builds in aloft over SNE, with sfc high pressure remaining anchored over or just to our south.

Expect several days of warm and dry days and warming nighttime temps. Highs should reach the 70s to perhaps a few low 80s Tues, then warm up further into the low-mid 80s (cooler low-mid 70s near the southern coast). Warmest low-level air (850 mb temps around +16 to +18C) builds in on Thurs, which is expected to be the warmest day. Moderate (around 30-50%) EPS/Canadian ensemble probabilities for 2-m temps of 90 degrees or greater are still apparent in the RI/MA coastal plain, Merrimack and into the CT Valleys; pretty notable ensemble-probabilistic signal at this time horizon for temps at or around 90+ degrees.

Friday:

A bit of uncertainty on Fri regarding the timing of a cold front which moves southward from Quebec and northern New England; its possible that Fri could be at least as warm if not a couple degs warmer than Thurs if a slower frontal timing verifies (e.g. such as depicted in the 12z Canadian GEM). With 500 mb flow perpendicular to the E-W frontal zone, suspect the front will be more progressive.

In a protracted dry spell, this front should also bring our next chance for showers and thunderstorms too; however the front's timing will be critical on the coverage and how strong any showers/storms may become.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

00Z TAF Update: High confidence.

VFR through Monday night. SW winds will diminish after sunset then veer briefly to the NW then NE with a backdoor cold front.
This front drops through generally arriving between 06-12Z from NE to SW. This front will bring a brief period of gusty winds, to 30 kt through 18Z then diminishing. Monday night, winds will be light and remain out of the east or northeast.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Back door front should arrive between 08-09Z tonight causing winds to flip NE and gust up to 30 kts. winds remain gusty through tomorrow morning then diminishing tomorrow afternoon

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Back door front should arrive between 10-11Z with winds flipping NNE and becoming gusty. winds will diminish quickly tomorrow afternoon

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Monday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Tuesday through Thursday: VFR.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

tonight...High Confidence.

SW wind gusts will diminish after sunset and then shift to the NE after midnight behind the backdoor cold front. Gusts of 20 to 30 knots will develop again across the waters by daybreak.

Monday...High Confidence.

* ENE Wind Gusts of 25 kts & Rough Seas Monday

A strong backdoor cold front for this time of year will result in a period of ENE wind gusts around 25 knots for all waters on Monday. Small craft headlines are in effect for all waters and seas will be choppy.

Monday night...High Confidence.

Winds out of the east/northeast diminish through the night, 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3-4 ft.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Tuesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ230- 231-250-251-254.

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Wind History from UUU (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Anthony Point, Sakonnet River, Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island

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