Kensington, CT Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kensington, CT


December 10, 2023 6:54 PM EST (23:54 UTC)
Sunrise 7:05AM   Sunset 4:22PM   Moonrise  5:37AM   Moonset 3:29PM 

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ331 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny To The Mouth Of The Connecticut River- 648 Pm Est Sun Dec 10 2023
.gale warning in effect through Monday afternoon...
Tonight..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt late this evening and early morning, then becoming W 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt late. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Isolated tstms. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..NW winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers in the morning.
Mon night..W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed night..NW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
winds and seas may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 648 Pm Est Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. A strengthening frontal system pushes through tonight into Monday morning. The deepening low pressure along it will move away quickly into canada by Monday evening. High pressure will then build from the southwest on Monday night into Tuesday. A cold front approaches Tuesday night and passes through late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Another high will then build from the west for later in the week, then shift off the new england coast Saturday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kensington, CT
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Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 102010 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 310 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS

Multi faceted storm with heavy rain leading to flash flooding and potentially damaging wind gusts will impact southern New England through tomorrow morning. Behind the departing system, the week ahead looks dry, cooling down mid week before warming up once again towards next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY MORNING/

Rain associated with this evening's much anticipated event has begun to overspread southern New England with showers blossoming across the entirety of the region. While generally light, we have seen a few tenths of QPF over the last hour at sites across central Connecticut, such as Willimantic.

Low pressure continues to push into southern New England this evening as mid level trough tilts negative, amplifying pressure falls as well and the low level jet, which at 925mb will reach peak strength of 80-90kt early Monday morning.

Overall, anticipated hazards remain consistent with previous updates with the low level jet mixing potent gusts to the surface across southeast MA, Rhode Island, and Cape Cod. Gusts will build towards 40kt by the midnight hour, growing in strength as the low closes in on southern New England by 12Z, at which time peak gusts near 55kt will be experienced across the Cape and Islands. After 12Z, the cold front that sweeps the low into the Gulf of Maine will cause an abrupt wind shift from the south to the northwest. With the jet offshore, will see winds diminish by half behind the front, to 25-35kt between 09-15Z.

While not diminishing the damaging wind threat for coastal southern New England, we wish to highlight that excessive rainfall leading to rapid small river and stream rises as well as urban, poor drainage, and flash flooding is likely overnight as rain becomes more intense after sunset this evening. This system will feed off of a stream of moisture advecting from the Gulf of Mexico, causing PWATs to rise to 1.5" plus (very high by December standards), combined with southerly, parallel to the approaching front, flow some four to five standard deviations of normal, which will amplify warm rain processes. Additionally, the freezing level is some ten to twelve thousand feet, indicating that this tropically infuses system will pack a punch across southern New England, even though it will lack significant convective elements with little to no instability present. Several pieces of guidance show the possibility of the low stalling, or even backbuilding a bit, overnight, which would prolong the duration of heavy precip.

The overall QPF forecast remains consistent with the previous shift, with a maximum of 4-6", perhaps locally higher, forecast over east central Connecticut and central Massachusetts. HRRR ensemble consistency has been rather remarkable over the last few runs, with little to no wobble in the anticipated axis of heaviest precipitation and consistency in the 24 hour LPMM (best reasonable guess for maximum precip potential) showing a widespread swath of 5- 7" across the aforementioned region. While it may seem insignificant, both the CMC and GEFS ensembles show bullseyes of 10-30% probabilities of 4" of QPF or greater over Tolland/Windham County Connecticut; which is marked as a considerable signal for significant precip in terms of global guidance. Thus, with all things above considered, collaborated with WPC and our neighboring WFOs to upgrade the Excessive Rainfall Outlook to MODERATE, to highlight the increased potential for flash flooding. Given much of this precipitation will fall overnight and to start the morning commute, motorists are urged to heed extreme caution when encountering flooded roadways as hazards may be difficult or impossible to see. Turn around, don't drown!

Aforementioned cold frontal passage will begin to infiltrate far western southern New England around 09Z which will allow for a transition to snow across the high terrain as temperatures drop some 20F behind the front. Accumulation of snow will be difficult outside of the high terrain given very warm antecedent conditions, a very saturated ground, and borderline temps in the mid 30s, thus, again relied heavily on positive snow depth change forecasts rather than 10:1 or Kuchera snow accumulations to derive our forecast. Overall, 1-4" is forecast for areas of Franklin, Hampshire, and Hampden county above 800ft, with minor accumulations possible between 600-800ft. Rain will likely transition to snow across the higher terrain of Worcester County for a very brief period between 12-15Z, but will have trouble accumulating; again, for the above reasons. By 15Z, precip will begin to wrap up everywhere with clearing beginning from southwest to northeast.

SHORT TERM /9 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/

It will be a tale of two forecasts on Monday as cold front pushes offshore between 14-16Z, allowing for a much colder, drier airmass to infiltrate southern New England. Fortunately, temperatures in the mid 30s to mid 40s tomorrow afternoon accompanied by a drying, blustery NW wind will preclude a hard freeze. Sunshine looks to become widespread by the lunch hour/early afternoon.

Will note that there is still considerable uncertainty regarding wind gusts tomorrow afternoon as guidance is split into two campaigns about the strength of the low level jet. The GFS and NBM are amped up on the potential for a 40-45kt jet maintaining position over western MA tomorrow afternoon, with the NAM, ECWMF, and CMC highlighting a weaker jet around 30kt. Thus, while it is possible that gusts of 40kt+ mix to the surface across the Berkshires on downsloping NW CAA, which would reach wind advisory criteria, confidence is too low to issue a headline at this time.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Key Points: - Mainly dry weather expected - Below normal temps give way to another warmup by next weekend

Upper level pattern should feature a broad trough over much of eastern US through midweek, but with lack of downstream blocking, pattern remains progressive and trough will exit to Maritimes. This will allow for a pattern change later in week as upper ridge takes hold and brings yet another warmup into next weekend. This pattern also favors dry weather overall.

AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18Z TAFs: Moderate confidence, mainly due to timing of trends.

Light rain gradually overspreads region this afternoon as conditions lower to MVFR/IFR. Steadier and heaver rain arrives this evening and continues overnight with widespread IFR/LIFR.
Should see rapid improvement to VFR as rain ends 15-18Z Mon but with areas of MVFR ceilings lingering near the higher elevations.

Strong low level jet of 80kt passing through SE New England will result in significant LLWS, mainly near coast, starting late this afternoon and continuing through late tonight.

S winds increase through evening with peak gusts 40-60kt overnight, strongest near Cape Cod and Islands, then winds shift to W/NW overnight but still remain gusty through day on Monday.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence. Timing of lowering ceilings may be too fast through this evening. Higher confidence on winds and LLWS.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence.

Outlook /Monday Night through Friday/...

Monday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.

Tuesday through Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Wednesday: VFR. Windy with areas of gusts up to 30 kt.

Wednesday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt.

Thursday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

Thursday Night through Friday: VFR. Breezy.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Dangerous storm for mariners expected to impact the waters mainly tonight into Monday. Storm Watches remain in effect for all waters except Boston Harbor where a Gale Warning is in place. Rain will continue across the waters overnight and will be heavy at times, reducing visibility. There is even a low risk (10-20%) for thunderstorms, especially across the southern coastal waters.

An abrupt and significant shift in winds is expected mid to late day Monday as a cold front crosses the waters. Seas gradually diminish through the day Monday, but will still be rough on the waters.

Outlook /Monday Night through Friday/...

Monday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Tuesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Wednesday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Friday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

HYDROLOGY
The risk for rapid brook and stream rises, as well as poor drainage and urban flooding, is elevated from tonight into Monday. Most locations within interior southern New England should see 2-4 inches of rainfall. Farther SE, rainfall totals should be 2 inches or less, mainly due to the duration of rainfall. The risk for 5"+ of rain has shifted a bit southeast into central/eastern Connecticut and Central Massachusetts, and has been highlighted by a Moderate Excessive Rainfall outlook.

Rainfall of this magnitude during this time of year, where the ground may be partially frozen or debris may be clogging storm drains, only magnifies the runoff and lesses the time before rises on smaller stream and creeks.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
* Coastal Flood Advisory for Narragansett Bay and south coast

Latest guidance suggests the peak surge for Providence will be near the time of high tide. There is still some uncertainty with exact timing and it could end up a few hours earlier or later depending on the timing of the cold front and wind shift.
However, our confidence is high that peak surge will reach up to 3 ft at Providence and 1.5 to 2.5 ft elsewhere along the RI and MA south coast. We think the ETSS and ESTOFS surge guidance is underdone and we leaned toward PETSS 90th percentile given the strong southerly LLJ and 24 hr pressure falls of 24-26 mb, which will enhance the surge. The highest confidence for minor flooding will be along Narragansett Bay due to funneling/channeling up the Bay with southerly flow. The risk for moderate flooding is rather low so we converted the coastal flood watch to an advisory. We would need a 4+ ft surge to reach moderate flooding and this appears unlikely at this time.

The flood threat is lower outside of Narragansett Bay where surge will be less. Worst case scenario would be very minor flooding or splashover along the RI south coast west of Narragansett Bay as well as Buzzards Bay and the south coast of Cape Cod.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Flood Watch through Monday evening for CTZ002>004.
MA...Flood Watch through Monday evening for MAZ002>021-026.
Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for MAZ007-013-015>018.
High Wind Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for MAZ019>021.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 AM to 8 AM EST Monday for MAZ020.
High Wind Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for MAZ022>024.
RI...Flood Watch through Monday evening for RIZ001>007.
Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for RIZ001>005.
High Wind Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for RIZ006-007.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 AM to 8 AM EST Monday for RIZ002- 004>007.
High Wind Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for RIZ008.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Monday for ANZ230.
Storm Warning from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ231-250-251- 254.
Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ232>235-237-255-256.
Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ236.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 27 mi54 min SW 17G20 54°F 29.80
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 40 mi54 min SSW 5.1G9.9 55°F 29.72
NLHC3 40 mi54 min 59°F 29.80
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 43 mi24 min SSW 22G24 57°F

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Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KHFD HARTFORDBRAINARD,CT 9 sm45 minS 096 smOvercast Lt Rain Mist 57°F57°F100%29.76
KMMK MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNI,CT 10 sm29 minS 09G163 smOvercast Rain Mist 59°F55°F88%29.77
KBDL BRADLEY INTL,CT 20 sm63 minS 103 smOvercast Lt Rain Mist 57°F55°F94%29.76
KOXC WATERBURYOXFORD,CT 23 sm60 minSSW 07G192 smOvercast Lt Rain Mist 55°F55°F100%29.78
KSNC CHESTER,CT 23 sm19 minS 09G247 smOvercast59°F59°F100%29.79

Wind History from HFD
(wind in knots)


Tide / Current for Rocky Hill, Connecticut
   
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Rocky Hill
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Sun -- 04:36 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:41 AM EST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:41 AM EST     2.39 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:28 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:20 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:30 PM EST     0.00 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Rocky Hill, Connecticut, Tide feet
12
am
1.7
1
am
1.6
2
am
1.3
3
am
1
4
am
0.8
5
am
0.5
6
am
0.3
7
am
0.3
8
am
0.7
9
am
1.3
10
am
1.9
11
am
2.3
12
pm
2.4
1
pm
2.2
2
pm
1.9
3
pm
1.5
4
pm
1.1
5
pm
0.7
6
pm
0.3
7
pm
0
8
pm
0.1
9
pm
0.5
10
pm
1.1
11
pm
1.6



Tide / Current for Portland, Connecticut
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Portland
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Sun -- 04:36 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:25 AM EST     0.28 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:48 AM EST     2.60 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:28 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:20 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:14 PM EST     0.00 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:17 PM EST     1.93 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Portland, Connecticut, Tide feet
12
am
1.7
1
am
1.4
2
am
1.1
3
am
0.8
4
am
0.5
5
am
0.3
6
am
0.4
7
am
0.8
8
am
1.5
9
am
2.1
10
am
2.5
11
am
2.6
12
pm
2.4
1
pm
2
2
pm
1.6
3
pm
1.1
4
pm
0.7
5
pm
0.2
6
pm
0
7
pm
0.2
8
pm
0.7
9
pm
1.2
10
pm
1.7
11
pm
1.9




Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of north east   
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Upton, NY,



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