Monday, September20, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kensington, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 6:53PM Monday September 20, 2021 2:08 AM EDT (06:08 UTC) Moonrise 7:09PMMoonset 5:57AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ331 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny To The Mouth Of The Connecticut River- 1036 Pm Edt Sun Sep 19 2021
Tonight..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming E late. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SE winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..SE winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..SE winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..SE winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight.
Thu..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers.
Thu night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Fri..SW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1036 Pm Edt Sun Sep 19 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure centered over eastern canada will continue to build across the northeast tonight and settle off the new england coast on Monday. The high will gradually give way to a slow moving cold front during the middle of the week, which passes through the area late Thursday into Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kensington, CT
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location: 41.65, -72.76     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 200555 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 155 AM EDT Mon Sep 20 2021

SYNOPSIS. Large high pressure remains over New England Monday and Tuesday, bringing dry weather with mild days and cool nights. The high begins to drift offshore Wednesday, with increasing humidity and scattered showers possible. A slow moving frontal system approaching from the west will be accompanied by widespread showers at times Thursday into Friday. Improving conditions expected Saturday but a few showers could linger in eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/.

2 AM update .

Temps falling thru the 50s with MVY the coolest location at 46! Previous forecast remains on track, thus no changes with this update. Earlier discussion below.

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Chilly night ahead, especially outside of the urban areas where temps are already down in the 50s. 1024 mb high over VT is providing a dry airmass, light winds and clear conditions. Hence, ideal radiational cooling conditions. Previous forecast is for many suburbs to fall into the 40s overnight, with 50s in the urban areas. These temps remain on track, thus no change to previous forecast.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/.

Monday .

Anomalous 592 Dm high builds into New England and becomes centered over our area. This is 99.5th percentile according to the NAEFS Situational Awareness Table. Nonetheless, daytime highs should be near or just above climatological normal due to southeast winds as 1028mb surface high slides just offshore. With 925mb temperatures +12 to +14C, expect low 70s near the coast and mid to upper 70s in the interior locations. Due to subsidence inversion, expect plentiful sunshine with a few mid to high level clouds filtering in from the southwest during the afternoon hours. That is associated with weak disturbances associated with the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Nicholas getting caught in the weakness between the 592 Dm ridge centered over the Northeast US and an approaching amplifying H5 trough from the Great Plains.

An interesting statistic is that Boston has never failed to record a sub-70 degree high past September 20. The latest first sub-70 degree high heading into astronomical fall is September 20 1947. With southeast flow and SSTs in the mid 60s, it will be a close call whether Boston will officially hit 70 degrees, given that the climate site is just off the waters at Logan Airport. Have gone with a maximum forecast of 70 degrees, but it is a toss-up between 69 and 71F. We shall see if the record stands by the end of tomorrow!

Monday night .

Surface high slides further offshore, allowing winds to turn southerly. Dew points rise from the 40s into the 50s and along with increasing cloud cover, overnight lows will generally bottom out in the 50s, with mid to upper 50s near the coast and in the urban population centers. If cloud cover is less extensive, then upper 40s in the typical cool spots like the MA coastal plains are possible.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/.

Highlights .

* Mainly dry and seasonably mild Tue/Wed * Scattered showers at times Thu into Fri and continued mild * Improving conditions Sat, but showers may linger in the east

Tuesday into Wednesday .

Strong mid level ridge over New Eng shifts to east on Wed while surface high remains sets up east of Nova Scotia with ridging extending west into SNE. Dry and seasonably mild weather Tue with sunshine mixing with some lower strato-cu as persistent SE flow brings a shallow layer of low level moisture. Then Wed, some of the guidance is indicating a few showers developing in the interior as low level moisture deepens a bit. Given that large scale forcing is limited with ridging nearby and lots of dry air in the mid levels, much of the day should be dry with just a low risk for a few showers in the interior. Temps Wed will be a bit milder with highs mid/upper 70s

Thursday into Friday .

Models are similar in the overall pattern with high amplitude trough/mid level low across the Gt Lakes opening up and lifting to the NE into eastern Canada as strong ridge persists to the east. As a result of the amplified pattern, there is consensus of a slow moving front approaching from the west with deep southerly flow across New Eng. Shower chances will increase during this period. Expect scattered showers Thu, especially in the west but given that best forcing remains to the west with neutral to slightly rising heights not expecting widespread showers and it may remain mostly dry in eastern New Eng Thu. The most likely period for numerous showers and a few t-storms will be Fri as low level jet and accompanying PWAT plume moves into region ahead of the frontal system. While some heavier rainfall is possible, the axis of heaviest rainfall is expected to be north and west of SNE. Temps will be in the 70s Thu/Fri with humid conditions as dewpoints will be well into the 60s.

Saturday and Sunday .

Low confidence forecast next weekend as there are differences on the amplitude of the upstream trough across the Gt Lakes which impacts the timing of the front moving offshore. GFS and ECMWF suggest improving conditions Sat, but many EC ensemble members have showers lingering on Sat with front stalling near eastern New Eng. Will maintain chc pops in the east on Sat but lots of uncertainty. For Sunday, we went with dry forecast in NW flow, but can't rule out more showers assocd with a shortwave passage. Seasonable temps expected next weekend as there is not push of colder air. In fact, ensemble mean 850 mb temps 10-12C.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

06z Update . high confidence thru Tue.

Today . VFR, dry weather and light winds, becoming onshore during the afternoon. Patchy fog in the interior valleys and low lying terminals near shore.

Tonight . VFR, dry weather and light winds. Patchy fog in the interior valleys and low lying terminals near shore.

Tuesday . VFR, dry weather and SE winds. VFR cloud bases possible across CT into western-central MA, possibly RI.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence. VFR.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence. VFR.

Outlook /Tuesday night through Thursday/

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

Thursday through Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

MARINE. Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

340 PM update .

Rest of today . High forecast confidence.

High pressure builds into New England, with NNE winds 10-15 kt and isolated 20 kt gusts diminishing by this evening. 5-7 ft seas and SE swells from Odette will diminish after midnight. Remaining Small Craft Advisories are scheduled to come down after midnight.

Tonight and Monday . High forecast confidence.

Large 1025+ mb high pressure builds over the maritimes, yielding fine boating weather with light winds, dry weather and good vsby.

Monday night . Winds shift to the south at 5-10 kt with localized reduced vsby due to patchy fog possible.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/ .

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 7 ft. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

CLIMATE. The latest first sub-70 degree high heading into astronomical fall for BOS is September 20 1947. It is possible we may break the record by tomorrow.

The latest first sub-70 degree high heading into astronomical fall for PVD is September 26 2015.

Both BDL and ORH have already recorded sub-70 degree highs earlier this month.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . KJC/Chai NEAR TERM . Nocera SHORT TERM . Chai LONG TERM . KJC AVIATION . KJC/Nocera MARINE . KJC/Chai CLIMATE . Chai


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 27 mi50 min NE 6 G 8 61°F 73°F1025.2 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 40 mi56 min N 2.9 G 5.1 63°F 74°F1024 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 41 mi50 min 60°F 71°F1025.3 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 43 mi58 min NE 1.9 G 2.9 63°F 1023.4 hPa38°F

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hartford, Hartford-Brainard Airport, CT8 mi75 minN 010.00 miFair58°F55°F90%1024.4 hPa
Meriden, Meriden Markham Municipal Airport, CT10 mi75 minWNW 310.00 miFair56°F53°F90%1024.5 hPa
Windsor Locks, Bradley International Airport, CT20 mi77 minNW 310.00 miFair55°F53°F93%1024.6 hPa
Oxford, Waterbury-Oxford Airport, CT23 mi77 minN 010.00 miFair55°F53°F93%1026.1 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT23 mi73 minN 010.00 miFair57°F57°F100%1024.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHFD

Wind History from HFD (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Rocky Hill, Connecticut
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Rocky Hill
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Mon -- 02:02 AM EDT     2.44 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:21 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:23 PM EDT     2.38 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:08 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:54 PM EDT     Full Moon
Mon -- 09:42 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.72.22.42.32.11.81.30.90.40.20.30.81.422.32.32.11.81.410.50.20.10.6

Tide / Current Tables for Portland, Connecticut
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Portland
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:09 AM EDT     2.66 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:05 AM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:30 PM EDT     2.59 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:08 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:54 PM EDT     Full Moon
Mon -- 08:26 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.42.72.62.31.91.40.90.40.20.411.62.22.52.62.321.510.50.20.20.71.4

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