Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rock Creek, OH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
930 PM...
High pressure is centered over the area this evening, though modest westerly 700 mb flow is resulting in just enough mid- level lift for a narrow band of clouds, and even an isolated shower, just entering the western basin of Lake Erie. T/Td spreads remain large across the region, so not anticipating anything too heavy other than a fleeting light rain shower or two.

Previous Discussion...
Minimal weather impacts through the near term forecast period.
A warm front begins developing from near the OH/MI border east across Lake Erie on Wednesday as a weak shortwave works through, with a pocket of weak instability advecting east along the advancing warm front. Some models have light QPF from Northwest OH points east to near CLE in response, and have added some low (20-30%) POPs to the forecast for Wednesday for this area. There could be some thunder in Northwest OH given the instability.
Lows tonight will range from the 40s in interior Northeast OH and Northwest PA to the lower 50s in the Toledo area. Highs Wednesday will blast well into the low to mid 70s for most of us...with an exception along the eastern Lake Erie shoreline where a lake breeze will keep things chillier. Lows Wednesday night will generally be in the 50s...a few 40s out in PA.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
High pressure will be centered off the New England on Thursday.
Strong warm air advection with southerly winds will help high temperatures to climb into the upper 70s and lower 80s. There may be a weak lake breeze that tries to move inland, especially for NWPA and far NEOH during the afternoon. Low level moisture will also gradually increase on Thursday. A couple isolated rain showers may be possible late in the day Thursday closer to central Ohio. A weak low pressure system will track from the Midwest through the lower Great Lakes region on Friday into Friday night. Rain showers will become likely Friday afternoon along with a chance for few thunderstorms. The higher POPs will be Friday afternoon into the evening. Average QPF will be between 0.50" to 0.75". High temperatures on Friday will range from the lower to middle 70s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Scattered rain showers may linger into Saturday morning. A Canadian high pressure system will build in over the Great Lakes region Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Skies will start out overcast Saturday but slowly scatter out by Saturday evening.
High temperatures Saturday will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Clear skies and light winds will allow for overnight temperatures Saturday night to fall into the lower to middle 40s. A few upper 30s may be possible in the prone colder spots.
Southerly flow will return on the back side of high pressure on Sunday with temperatures climbing back in the middle and upper 60s with sunshine. Sunday will be the pick day of the weekend.
Strong warm air advection will return by Monday with temperatures warming back into the middle and upper 70s.

AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/
VFR conditions are expected across the area today with high pressure east of the the region.Some mid-level moisture with an advancing warm front has allowed for some ceilings in the 8 to 10 kft range to develop and will overspread the area this morning. This front will advance north today and allow for some showers and storms to form northwest of the airspace. Believe the main action will be into Michigan, but there is a low chance in some rain getting into KTOL, but have omitted from the TAFs for now. Otherwise, warm conditions and a light pressure gradient should allow for a lake breeze to form at KERI and KCLE this afternoon. Conditions will trend toward clearing by the end of the period.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms Friday into Saturday.

MARINE
Overall winds will be light and somewhat variable at 5 to 10 knots tonight through Thursday. There may be a lake breeze that develops Wednesday/Thursday afternoons. Waves will be 1 to 3 feet most of this week. A warm front will lift across the lake late Thursday as a a weak low pressure system approaches from the lake from the west. Winds will become more southeasterly to southerly 5 to 10 knots Thursday night into Friday. The weak low pressure system will track across Lake Erie Friday night with a trailing cold front. Northerly winds 10 to 20 knots will return behind the cold front late Friday night into Saturday. The next round of possible Small Craft Advisories may be late Friday night into Saturday. High pressure will build over the lake Saturday night into Sunday with an easterly flow 5 to 15 knots.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.