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LEZ147 Willowick To Geneva-on-the Lake Oh-geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- 413 Am Est Thu Dec 7 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Saturday through Monday.
the water temperature off toledo is 42 degrees, off cleveland 44 degrees, and off erie 44 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 071815 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 115 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

SYNOPSIS
A warmer southerly wind increases today ahead of low pressure that moves into the upper Great Lakes later today then continues into Saturday. A stronger area of low pressure moves into the central Great Lakes Saturday afternoon with its cold front moving across the region from west to east Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure moves east across the area on Monday and Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
12:40 PM Update...
Clouds are clearing out as expected, so no changes were made with this update.

Previous Discussion...
Right rear quadrant of a middle level jet is moving over the eastern third of the CWA with some light returns appearing on radar. Most METAR sites were not reporting any precipitation hitting the surface over the last couple hours with the exception being across NW PA. So other than a passing sprinkle or flurry through mid morning it looks as if we remain dry.

Beyond sunrise it looks like cloud cover will gradually decrease from west to east as a south to southwest wind brings warmer air into the region. So most locations should see some sunshine during the afternoon. The exception will be across extreme NE OH into NW PA. Partly cloudy skies continue into the overnight. Highs this afternoon should range from around 40 across inland NW PA to near 50 across NW OH. For tonight all locations should dip into the lower to middle 30's.

Partly cloudy skies Friday morning gradually become mostly cloudy from west to east by late afternoon. The region remains dry as gusty southwesterly winds bring in warmer air. Highs should reach into the 50's across the entire CWA.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Active weather is expected towards the end of the short term period as widespread rain arrives across the region Saturday evening into Sunday ahead of a cold front. Behind the front, rain will transition to a rain/snow mix, then all snow by Sunday evening and overnight.

Generally quiet weather is anticipated Friday night into Saturday morning as an upper-level ridge exits east of the region. By Saturday evening, precipitation aided by moist isentropic lift will spread northeast into the region as a deep upper-level trough moves east towards the Eastern CONUS. At the surface, a low pressure system will deepen as it moves northeastward from the ArkLaTex region into the Upper Great Lakes through Saturday night.
This low pressure system will extend a cold front east through the Great Lakes on Sunday. A second low pressure system will then develop along this frontal boundary and move northeast towards the Mid-Atlantic through Sunday night. The heaviest and most widespread precipitation is expected late Saturday night into Sunday morning, especially across the eastern half of the area ahead of the cold frontal passage.

A much cooler air mass will arrive behind the front by Sunday afternoon and evening, characterized by 850 mb temperatures briefly falling as low as -8 to -10 degrees C. Any lingering precipitation from the second area of low pressure should quickly transition over to a rain/snow mix, becoming all snow by Sunday evening. In addition, the cool air mass over a relatively-warm Lake Erie will result in lake-enhanced snow showers across NE OH and NW PA. Still some specifics to work out going forward, but could definitely see at least a few inches of snow across the snowbelt late Sunday evening and overnight.

Above-average temperatures are expected for Saturday with highs nearing record highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Temperatures will return back to average to slightly below average for Sunday behind the cold front in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Quieter weather will return across the region for early to mid-week as strong high pressure builds across the Southeast CONUS. Only concern will be lingering lake-effect snow showers across NE OH/NW PA Monday morning into afternoon as W to NW flow remains across Lake Erie. Otherwise, the dominant surface high pressure towards the south should limit precipitation chances across the region into mid- week.

Average to slightly below-average temperatures are expected for the short term period with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/
VFR is observed areawide, except KERI where MVFR ceilings may last for a few more hours. Otherwise, VFR is expected through the TAF period.

Southwesterly winds of 10-14 knots with gusts up to 25 knots are expected to persist through this afternoon until dusk. Winds decrease to around 8-10 knots overnight before increasing back to 10-15 knots and gusts to 25 knots by late morning Friday. A strong low-level jet will move in from the southwest, with a temperature inversion preventing those winds from mixing down to the surface overnight, so opted in continue LLWS at KTOL and KFDY and add to KMFD.

Outlook...Non-VFR with widespread rain is expected Saturday afternoon through Sunday. This may transition to lake effect snow across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania Sunday night and Monday.

MARINE
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect across much of the lake through this afternoon, mainly from elevated south to southwest winds of 15 to 25 knots.

Quieter marine conditions will arrive by this evening and overnight as winds weaken to 10 to 15 knots. Offshore flow of 15 knots will persist for Friday, strengthening closer to 20 knots by Saturday ahead of a cold front. Behind the front on Sunday, winds will shift towards the west to northwest, increasing to near 20 knots. A Small Craft Advisory will then likely be needed across much of the lake into Monday.

CLIMATE
It is expected to get very warm on Saturday, December 9th, with some sites forecast to be near record high temperatures. Here are the daily record high temperatures for December 9th for area climate sites:

Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie

12-09 60(1952) 60(1952) 62(1952) 62(1952) 64(1952) 65(1885)

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ143>146.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ147>149.

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