Sunrise 6:27 AM   Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 7:15 PM   Moonset 5:14 AM

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LEZ147 Expires:202404230815;;213556 Fzus51 Kcle 230126 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 926 pm edt Mon apr 22 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez145>147-230815- vermilion to avon point oh-avon point to willowick oh- willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh- 926 pm edt Mon apr 22 2024
Rest of tonight - South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy late this evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Tuesday - South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet. Tuesday night - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Showers in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Wednesday - Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet, then subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Thursday through Saturday.
the water temperature off toledo is 54 degrees, off cleveland 49 degrees, and off erie 48 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 230829 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 429 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will track east into by Quebec by Wednesday morning, with a trailing cold front settling south of Lake Erie. High pressure will expand into the Great Lakes Region behind it on Wednesday night and influence the weather into Friday as it slowly moves off the New England Coast. A warm front will lift north across the area Friday evening.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Surface low pressure is located over Lake Superior this morning with a trough extending south to another weak low in the lee of the Rockies. Mid and upper level cloud has overspread the area while low levels remain dry with dewpoints in the 20s and lower 30s this morning. Regional radars show an area of showers over western lower Michigan and Lake Michigan where a low level jet is focused. These are forecast to lift northeast this morning with the trailing end of the line just barely reaching Lake Erie. Moisture advection will be focused into Northwest Ohio this morning and showers are expected to to fill in by early afternoon as shortwave energy and a jet streak at 500mb arrives. Farther east, it will take some time to moisten with dry air in the low levels and good mixing in the lowest 4-5K feet. Winds will be gusty as the surface pressure gradient tightens with winds of 30-35 knots at 925mb. Look for winds to peak before the rain arrives with southwest winds gusting to 30-35 mph, then settling down closer to 20 mph with some boundary layer stabilization. Several high resolution models have trended towards a little slower arrival of the rain with potential for some virga to start. With this in mind have slowed the eastward progression just slightly but still have light rain reaching Cleveland by 5-6 PM. One thing to watch today will be the amount of thunderstorms that develop in northern Missouri which is the source region for today's moisture and could limit advection into our area. Overall still think most areas will see rain between this afternoon and evening as there is good forcing ahead of an upper level trough deepening across the Great Lakes Region. QPF amounts will be highest towards Toledo where almost a half inch is possible with most of the remaining areas see between 0.1-0.3 inch.
Thunderstorms are not expected with little to no instability and extensive cloud cover.

Rain will diminish from west to east as a mid-level dry slot wraps in aloft. The actual cold front has slowed down and does not arrive until Wednesday morning. We do get another push of mid-level wrap around moisture between 06-12Z so expanded the coverage of pops a little more for late tonight. In addition, raised the minimum temperature forecast for tonight and lowered the high temperature forecast for Wednesday. Highs will likely occur ahead of the front and then fall through the afternoon. Temperatures on Wednesday will be cool with most areas in the mid 40s and wind chills making it feel like the 30s, except for slightly warmer along the I-75 corridor. Given the slower frontal timing, clouds will hold on for much of the day on Wednesday and could even see a few sprinkles or light showers.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
The short term forecast period will largely feature quiet weather with temperatures embarking on a robust warming trend that will continue into the weekend. For Thursday, large scale subsidence between a departing upper trough to the east/northeast and building upper ridge to the west will result in surface high pressure and mostly sunny / somewhat cool conditions. By Friday the surface ridge will be shifting east as the upper ridge slides into the eastern CONUS, allowing deep-layer south-southwest flow to develop. This will cause temperatures and dew points to begin climbing on Friday.
Clouds will begin increasing through the day Friday, though for most of the forecast area the day will still be dry. Showers (and perhaps a bit of thunder) will spread in from the west as a warm front lifts through ahead of low pressure lifting out of the Plains and into the upper Midwest late Friday into Friday night. Not looking at a heavy rain or severe weather threat with this activity late Friday. Fairly decent confidence that most of the area will measure at least a bit of rain late Friday or Friday night, so have high chance to likely POPs (50-70%) in the forecast.

The other forecast challenge / potential impact during this forecast period will be frost / freeze potential, especially Wednesday night into Thursday morning. With 850mb temperatures dipping below 0C, afternoon temperatures on Wednesday likely being held in the 40s, and dew points falling well into the 20s by Wednesday night the airmass will be quite conducive to frost / freeze conditions. High pressure building in will cause winds to go light (to calm where winds are able to decouple), though a slight gradient will persist through most of the night so it may take until close to the pre-dawn for some sites to see winds go light / variable. A potentially larger wrinkle in the temperature forecast and frost potential will be cloud cover. Large-scale subsidence and a rather dry airmass advecting in will be attempting to clear out the clouds. However, there are hints that a low-level trough axis associated with sufficient 925-850mb moisture to maintain stratus may linger. Bumped up clouds and increased lows just a bit across south-central portions of our CWA where there appear to be higher odds for some clouds to linger. Where skies can clear widespread frost is expected, and still have lows generally in the upper 20s-lower 30s.
Have slightly warmer temperatures along the immediate lakeshore and across our far south (from Mount Vernon-Canton) where the greatest odds of clouds persisting may exist. A more marginal setup Thursday night into early Friday as the gradient increases a bit behind the departing high pressure. With a chilly and dry airmass remaining, mostly clear skies, and relatively light winds have some frost in away from the lake, especially from the Central Highlands points east-northeast into PA. Forecast lows for Thursday night generally range from the mid 30s to near 40, slightly warmer along the lakeshore and colder in a few spots from far NE Ohio into PA. Highs will still be a bit cool on Thursday, generally in the 50s to near 60. Highs should warm into the low to mid 70s for Friday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A warmer than average long term is in store as a ridge builds over the eastern CONUS ahead of a trough and series of low pressure tracking through the central US. Have shower (and perhaps thunder)
chances lingering into Saturday morning with an advancing warm front, especially from far Northeast OH into Northwest PA.
Otherwise, it will be warm and perhaps somewhat humid and unstable Saturday and Sunday afternoons, so maintain an assortment of low POPs (generally 20-40%) through the rest of the weekend. However, agreement seems to be increasing that any fronts and associated stronger forcing will remain will to our west and northwest through the weekend once the warm front clears on Saturday, so suspect the flavor of the weekend will be mainly dry. Overall, POPs are a bit lower than prior forecasts for the weekend and probably have additional room to trend a bit lower. POPs increase on Monday as a cold front looks to drift in from the west as low pressure lifts through the upper Great Lakes. There may be enough forcing, shear, and instability for some stronger storms with the cold front on Monday, but that is well out there with minimal concern for anything strong to severe beforehand over the weekend.

Highs will be well into the 70s to perhaps around 80 Saturday through Monday, with overnight lows in the 50s and 60s. Southwest winds will be gusty at times, especially on Saturday when most models have deep mixing into a 40-50 knot 850mb jet. Generally have gusts of 30-35 MPH in the forecast each afternoon Saturday through Monday, though there may be potential for some 40-45 MPH gusts, especially across parts of Northwest and North Central OH Saturday.

AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/
Conditions will generally be VFR through 18Z as clouds gradually lower. Southwest winds will increase towards 12Z with gusts to 20-25 knots developing and will continue to increase through about 16Z as mixing heights increase, tapping into a 40 knot low level jet overhead. Gusts of 25-30 knots will be common until rain begins and helps to stabilize the boundary layer. Rain will spread west to east across the area beginning in Toledo around 17Z, CLE around 21Z, and CAK around 23Z. Ceilings will lower as rain increases with most terminals on the fringe of MVFR or VFR.
Have included a period of MVFR ceilings and visibilities where rain persists longer and seems more favorable but lacking some confidence in visibilities as this will tend to be a light rain.
Thunderstorms are not expected. The more persistent rain will end from west to east between 00-06Z but showers may linger at eastern terminals into Wednesday morning. A cold front will move south into the area between 06-12Z with a wind shift to the northwest. This will also bring lower ceilings with most sites down to IFR by 12Z Wed.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely through Wednesday with scattered showers lingering across the snowbelt region. Non-VFR may return in showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon through Saturday.

MARINE
Brisk southwest winds are expected today ahead of an approaching cold front, with 15 to 25 knot sustained values with gusts to near 30 knots likely making it into the nearshore waters. Went ahead with a Small Craft Advisory from Lake County OH points west. The core of the low level jet will largely impact Cleveland points west, and think sustained winds will reach 20 knots at times with gusts up to 30 knots in the nearshore waters west of Cleveland. Included Lake County as the shape of the shoreline may support higher winds and waves in the nearshore waters as far east as Fairport Harbor. In collaboration with WFO Buffalo did not issue a Small Craft Advisory farther east, though with sustained winds nearing 20 knots and gusts likely 25-30 knots at times through this afternoon it will still be blustery and can't rule out a last minute expansion if observations suggest winds are over-performing farther east. Waves of 3 to 6 feet can be expected in the open waters today. Winds slacken enough this evening to allow the advisories to come down. Winds flip north- northwest early Wednesday behind a cold front and increase to 15-25 knots, especially between the Islands and Cleveland. Likely will need some additional Small Craft Advisories for at least some of the central nearshore waters for Wednesday.

High pressure brings generally tranquil marine conditions Wednesday night through Friday. East-northeast winds increase briefly to 10-15 knots Thursday afternoon and evening which may build some chop.
Otherwise, winds turn southwest on Saturday behind a warm front.
Winds will be 15-25 knots at times this weekend, though will also be mainly offshore and building larger waves into the open waters. That said, with very warm air temperatures arriving for the weekend there may be an increase in recreational traffic on the lake. The strong offshore flow and cold waters (ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s) could still pose some hazard to smaller craft or inexperienced mariners, so we may need some small craft headlines this weekend.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ142>144.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for LEZ145>147.

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