Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rock Creek, OH

KEY MESSAGES
1) Dry conditions continue today before a series of low pressure systems mark the return of showers and thunderstorms chances Wednesday afternoon through late week.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure will linger into Wednesday, keeping dry conditions and plenty of sunshine across the area. As this high pressure drifts east midweek, a weak low pressure system centered near the Gulf Coast will move north into the Ohio Valley. This system will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the eastern portion of the CWA Wednesday afternoon into the evening. Given the positioning of the low and the higher PWAT axis further east, there remains a decent chance that the bulk of the area remains dry. Given the overall weak forcing with this system, not anticipating any severe weather at this point.

Late Wednesday into Thursday, a broad upper level trough and associated frontal boundary will approach the area from the west. This frontal boundary will be slow moving and potentially stall near the area until pushing east on Friday. As a result, multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday and Friday. The confidence in any severe threat is low at this point given the discrepancies in timing amongst models, but increasing dew points and daytime instability keep that potential around for the end of the week. In addition, will need to keep an eye on the potential for heavy rainfall as mean flow is expected to be near parallel to the frontal boundary which could result in periods of training showers. Given the expected PWAT values and deep warm cloud layer, can also expect any storms that develop to be associated with efficient rainfall rates. WPC has highlighted the entire area in a marginal ERO for Thursday into Friday. The chance of showers will linger into the weekend as additional disturbances push across the area, although full spatial extent and timing remains uncertain.

Through the weekend, temperatures will remain near normal for this time of year with highs climbing into the mid to upper 80s and overnight lows cooling into the 60s.

AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/
Patchy fog with MVFR visibilities at 12Z will improve within the hour, followed by mostly sunny skies for the remainder of today. High pressure over the region will maintain light wind conditions with lake/land breeze circulations through tonight. ERI can expect a wind shift off the lake around 16Z and closer to 18Z at CLE. Scattered clouds will begin to arrive tonight as moisture increases. Winds will be 8 knots or less through the period.

Outlook...Periods of showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR conditions will develop across northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania Wednesday afternoon and evening. Showers, and occasional storms, will become more widespread across the region Thursday, and continue into the weekend.

MARINE
Generally light wind conditions expected this week with speeds of 15 knots or less. High pressure overhead today with result in a lake breeze with north to northeast winds. As the high shifts east on Wednesday, lake breezes can be expected from about Lorain eastward. Thunderstorm chances return Thursday into the weekend and could result in erratic wind and wave conditions.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.