Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fort Jones, CA
November 29, 2023 3:47 AM PST (11:47 UTC)
Sunrise 7:16AM Sunset 4:42PM Moonrise 6:32PM Moonset 9:58AM
PZZ450 Pt St George To Cape Mendocino Out 10 Nm- 250 Am Pst Wed Nov 29 2023
Today..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves sw 3 ft at 8 seconds...and W 5 ft at 12 seconds.
Tonight..NE winds 5 kt. Waves sw 3 ft at 8 seconds...and W 3 ft at 11 seconds. Chance of showers.
Thu..W winds 5 to 15 kt. Waves sw 2 ft at 7 seconds...and nw 5 ft at 13 seconds. Rain.
Thu night..N winds 5 to 15 kt. Waves nw 8 ft at 12 seconds...and W 2 ft at 16 seconds.
Fri..S winds 5 to 15 kt. Waves nw 9 ft at 12 seconds.
Sat..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves W 4 ft at 5 seconds...and nw 11 ft at 16 seconds.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves nw 11 ft at 13 seconds...and nw 5 ft at 20 seconds.
Today..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves sw 3 ft at 8 seconds...and W 5 ft at 12 seconds.
Tonight..NE winds 5 kt. Waves sw 3 ft at 8 seconds...and W 3 ft at 11 seconds. Chance of showers.
Thu..W winds 5 to 15 kt. Waves sw 2 ft at 7 seconds...and nw 5 ft at 13 seconds. Rain.
Thu night..N winds 5 to 15 kt. Waves nw 8 ft at 12 seconds...and W 2 ft at 16 seconds.
Fri..S winds 5 to 15 kt. Waves nw 9 ft at 12 seconds.
Sat..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves W 4 ft at 5 seconds...and nw 11 ft at 16 seconds.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves nw 11 ft at 13 seconds...and nw 5 ft at 20 seconds.
PZZ400 250 Am Pst Wed Nov 29 2023
Synopsis for northern california waters..Southeasterly winds in the southern outer waters quickly weaken this morning. Winds will turn northerly this afternoon and then strengthen again late Thursday behind a weak frontal passage. Otherwise, a series of wnw swells are expected to arrive Friday through this weekend weekend.
Synopsis for northern california waters..Southeasterly winds in the southern outer waters quickly weaken this morning. Winds will turn northerly this afternoon and then strengthen again late Thursday behind a weak frontal passage. Otherwise, a series of wnw swells are expected to arrive Friday through this weekend weekend.
Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 290536 AFDMFR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 844 PM PST Tue Nov 28 2023
Updated AVIATION discussion
DISCUSSION
Satellite is showing the upper low circulating with the center roughly 120 miles offshore of Eureka California, with cloud cover reaching as far as Curry, and western Josephine and Siskiyou counties at this time. The radar is indicating showers over far southwest Siskiyou county, but with a very dry layer beneath none of the precipitation is reaching the ground. The track of the upper low still is expected to keep precipitation to the southwest of the forecast area as the upper low swings into the central California coast before opening into an upper trough by Wednesday morning. This will have little to any effect on the strong inversions over the valleys, and the air stagnation advisory remains in effect through Thursday morning. Current forecast looks on track and will not update this evening. -Sven
AVIATION
29/06Z TAFs...Clear skies and VFR conditions will persist over most of northern California and southern Oregon under stable atmospheric conditions for this TAF period.
Fog has started to fill the Umpqua Valley and has already brought LIFR ceilings and visibilities to Roseburg. Freezing fog is expected later tonight and will continue into early Wednesday morning. While model guidance still suggests that fog is not impossible in the Rogue and Illinois valleys tonight, persisting temperatures and dew points suggest that widespread fog is not expected in these areas.
Anything that does develop in the Rogue and Illinois valleys should clear up quickly under daylight, conditions in the Umpqua Valley should start to improve by late Wednesday morning. -TAD
MARINE
Updated 800 PM Tuesday November 28, 2023...Seas will remain low, near the current readings of 4-5 feet at 11-13 seconds, through Wednesday night.
Thursday afternoon, active weather returns with multiple fronts expected to pass through the region from Thursday through the weekend, and continuing into early next week. Thursday evening a steep northwest swell between 11 and 12 feet will build into the waters. When a strong front moves through on Friday, gusty south winds will combine with the existing swell to increase the steepness and chaoticness of the seas.
The northwest swell will rebuild and grow throughout the day on Saturday. The trend in the forecast swell heights have been trending up in height, which could make bar crossings increasingly more hazardous. -Miles/TAD
PREV DISCUSSION
/Issued 244 PM PST Tue Nov 28 2023/
Updated AVIATION discussion
DISCUSSION...Satellite image shows clear skies over most of the forecast area, with the exception of a few high level clouds on the northeast side of the upper low off the northern California coast.
The upper low will continue to move south along the California coast and weaken at the same time before pushing inland around the Bay area. We'll see varying amounts of high and mid level clouds this evening and tonight, but it wont be enough to prevent low clouds from developing once again in the Umpqua Basin and around Grants Pass late this evening.
Wednesday will be dry with low clouds and patchy freezing fog remaining a fixture in the Umpqua Basin and Grants pass area which could last through the morning hours before burning off in the afternoon. Elsewhere we can expect varying amounts of high and mid level clouds, especially in northern California.
Wednesday night, an upper trough and associated cold front will approach the outer waters late tonight. Inland areas will remain dry, but precipitation could reach the marine waters late Wednesday night. We'll see increasing high and lid level clouds Wednesday evening with the cloud cover becoming thicker as we go further into Wednesday night. Overnight lows west of the Cascades could actually occur later in the evening, then remain nearly steady or even rise a bit in the overnight hours.
Thursday, the front will reach the coast around daybreak, then moving inland during the day. Snow levels are expected to hover around 4000 feet, but they could briefly lower to around 3500 feet in heavier precipitation. Storm total snow Thursday will be between 2-4 inches, most centered around Crater Lake and Diamond Lake, and 1- 2 inches near Lake of the Woods. Keep in mind precip will be coming in during the day, so it's possible snow amounts noted could end up a little less due to melting on the roads.
The upper trough axis will move into the area Thursday evening, then east of the Cascades Thursday night. Precipitation at this time will become more showery, but a moist west to northwest flow will remain with snow showers persisting around 3000 feet and above along the Cascades resulting in a better opportunity for road snow around Crater Lake, Diamond Lake, Lake of the Woods, and north part of highway 97 north of Chiloquin. Storm totals Thursday night in these areas are expected to be between 2-4 inches at Crater Lake and Diamond Lake, and 1-3 inches near Lake of the Woods and an inch or two on highway 97 north of Chiloquin. -Petrucelli
LONG TERM...
The extended forecast starts with the first significant winter weather event for our region this season. An upper level wave will come sliding down from the north west within a relatively cold airmass. Temperatures around 4500 feet will be well below freezing and snow levels will be pushing down to 3000 feet Thursday night and Friday morning. This wave by its self might result in moderate impacts as the snowfall rates are not that impressive. The Winter Storm Severity Index is only pointing at moderate impacts for this time period.
There should be a 'brief' lull mid day Friday before the next wave moves in quickly by Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. This one is a little more concerning for a few reasons as some warmer moist air begins to ride over a relatively cooler airmass. There is also a cold/stationary front situated west to east over the Pacific. This should also aid in some additional synoptic lift around our region. The NBM's latest forecast is a bit of a concern with snowfall rates potentially reaching 1" an hour for 12 to 18 hours over the Cascades. The pattern would fit that idea with westerly flow hitting the Cascades and the stationary boundary over the Pacific.
NBM probabilities also give some warning to a bigger winter storm event. The probability for 2 feet of snow over 48 hours ending Saturday evening is about 80% over the higher Oregon Cascades.
Therefore, combined with other pattern recognition, we decided to go through with a winter storm watch from 0Z Friday until 0z Sunday.
As we move into the forecast, a warm front and leading edge of the next atmospheric river appears to slam right into Oregon around Sunday. Temperatures will warm and snow levels will increase up to 8000 feet. This scenario has about an 80% chance of occuring.
However, some models show a cold front approaching our region late Sunday night, which could increase precipitation and keep snow levels relatively lower. This solution has a 20% happening.
Overall, impacts will likely decrease into Sunday as warmer air begins to move in.
Ensembles suggest integrated vapor transport(IVT) are fairly high and around 300 to 500 along the coast based on the latest GEFS data by Monday. However, the IVTs have a strong southerly to south westerly component. We've had an IVT event like this already this fall with minimal precipitation along the coast and farther inland.
In any case, the take home point here is warming temperatures should allow for decreasing snow impacts into next week.
-Smith
AVIATION
29/00Z TAFs
VFR conditions under generally clear skies continue across northern California and southern Oregon heading into the evening, and these conditions will continue over most areas through the TAF period.
Fog in west side valleys will be the lone concern. LIFR ceilings and visibilities are expected in the Umpqua Valley later this evening, and should stay in place until Wednesday afternoon. Model guidance suggests that fog building in the Rogue and Illinois valleys will be a possibility tonight, but this relies on extra moisture and/or colder temperatures than previous evenings. Current observations do not suggest any changing conditions, so fog will remain out of the TAFs for now. -TAD
MARINE
Updated 200 PM Tuesday November 28, 2023
Seas will remain low, near the current readings of 4-5 feet at 11-13 seconds, through Wednesday night.
Thursday afternoon, active weather returns with multiple fronts expected to pass through the region from Thursday through the weekend, and continuing into early next week. Thursday evening a steep northwest swell between 11 and 12 feet will build into the waters. When a strong front moves through on Friday, gusty south winds will combine with the existing swell to increase the steepness and chaoticness of the seas.
The northwest swell will rebuild and grow throughout the day on Saturday. The trend in the forecast swell heights have been trending up in height, which could make bar crossings increasingly more hazardous. -Miles
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for ORZ023>026- 028>031.
Winter Storm Watch from Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon above 4000 feet for ORZ025-027>030.
CA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for CAZ080-081- 084-085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for PZZ356.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for PZZ370- 376.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 844 PM PST Tue Nov 28 2023
Updated AVIATION discussion
DISCUSSION
Satellite is showing the upper low circulating with the center roughly 120 miles offshore of Eureka California, with cloud cover reaching as far as Curry, and western Josephine and Siskiyou counties at this time. The radar is indicating showers over far southwest Siskiyou county, but with a very dry layer beneath none of the precipitation is reaching the ground. The track of the upper low still is expected to keep precipitation to the southwest of the forecast area as the upper low swings into the central California coast before opening into an upper trough by Wednesday morning. This will have little to any effect on the strong inversions over the valleys, and the air stagnation advisory remains in effect through Thursday morning. Current forecast looks on track and will not update this evening. -Sven
AVIATION
29/06Z TAFs...Clear skies and VFR conditions will persist over most of northern California and southern Oregon under stable atmospheric conditions for this TAF period.
Fog has started to fill the Umpqua Valley and has already brought LIFR ceilings and visibilities to Roseburg. Freezing fog is expected later tonight and will continue into early Wednesday morning. While model guidance still suggests that fog is not impossible in the Rogue and Illinois valleys tonight, persisting temperatures and dew points suggest that widespread fog is not expected in these areas.
Anything that does develop in the Rogue and Illinois valleys should clear up quickly under daylight, conditions in the Umpqua Valley should start to improve by late Wednesday morning. -TAD
MARINE
Updated 800 PM Tuesday November 28, 2023...Seas will remain low, near the current readings of 4-5 feet at 11-13 seconds, through Wednesday night.
Thursday afternoon, active weather returns with multiple fronts expected to pass through the region from Thursday through the weekend, and continuing into early next week. Thursday evening a steep northwest swell between 11 and 12 feet will build into the waters. When a strong front moves through on Friday, gusty south winds will combine with the existing swell to increase the steepness and chaoticness of the seas.
The northwest swell will rebuild and grow throughout the day on Saturday. The trend in the forecast swell heights have been trending up in height, which could make bar crossings increasingly more hazardous. -Miles/TAD
PREV DISCUSSION
/Issued 244 PM PST Tue Nov 28 2023/
Updated AVIATION discussion
DISCUSSION...Satellite image shows clear skies over most of the forecast area, with the exception of a few high level clouds on the northeast side of the upper low off the northern California coast.
The upper low will continue to move south along the California coast and weaken at the same time before pushing inland around the Bay area. We'll see varying amounts of high and mid level clouds this evening and tonight, but it wont be enough to prevent low clouds from developing once again in the Umpqua Basin and around Grants Pass late this evening.
Wednesday will be dry with low clouds and patchy freezing fog remaining a fixture in the Umpqua Basin and Grants pass area which could last through the morning hours before burning off in the afternoon. Elsewhere we can expect varying amounts of high and mid level clouds, especially in northern California.
Wednesday night, an upper trough and associated cold front will approach the outer waters late tonight. Inland areas will remain dry, but precipitation could reach the marine waters late Wednesday night. We'll see increasing high and lid level clouds Wednesday evening with the cloud cover becoming thicker as we go further into Wednesday night. Overnight lows west of the Cascades could actually occur later in the evening, then remain nearly steady or even rise a bit in the overnight hours.
Thursday, the front will reach the coast around daybreak, then moving inland during the day. Snow levels are expected to hover around 4000 feet, but they could briefly lower to around 3500 feet in heavier precipitation. Storm total snow Thursday will be between 2-4 inches, most centered around Crater Lake and Diamond Lake, and 1- 2 inches near Lake of the Woods. Keep in mind precip will be coming in during the day, so it's possible snow amounts noted could end up a little less due to melting on the roads.
The upper trough axis will move into the area Thursday evening, then east of the Cascades Thursday night. Precipitation at this time will become more showery, but a moist west to northwest flow will remain with snow showers persisting around 3000 feet and above along the Cascades resulting in a better opportunity for road snow around Crater Lake, Diamond Lake, Lake of the Woods, and north part of highway 97 north of Chiloquin. Storm totals Thursday night in these areas are expected to be between 2-4 inches at Crater Lake and Diamond Lake, and 1-3 inches near Lake of the Woods and an inch or two on highway 97 north of Chiloquin. -Petrucelli
LONG TERM...
The extended forecast starts with the first significant winter weather event for our region this season. An upper level wave will come sliding down from the north west within a relatively cold airmass. Temperatures around 4500 feet will be well below freezing and snow levels will be pushing down to 3000 feet Thursday night and Friday morning. This wave by its self might result in moderate impacts as the snowfall rates are not that impressive. The Winter Storm Severity Index is only pointing at moderate impacts for this time period.
There should be a 'brief' lull mid day Friday before the next wave moves in quickly by Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. This one is a little more concerning for a few reasons as some warmer moist air begins to ride over a relatively cooler airmass. There is also a cold/stationary front situated west to east over the Pacific. This should also aid in some additional synoptic lift around our region. The NBM's latest forecast is a bit of a concern with snowfall rates potentially reaching 1" an hour for 12 to 18 hours over the Cascades. The pattern would fit that idea with westerly flow hitting the Cascades and the stationary boundary over the Pacific.
NBM probabilities also give some warning to a bigger winter storm event. The probability for 2 feet of snow over 48 hours ending Saturday evening is about 80% over the higher Oregon Cascades.
Therefore, combined with other pattern recognition, we decided to go through with a winter storm watch from 0Z Friday until 0z Sunday.
As we move into the forecast, a warm front and leading edge of the next atmospheric river appears to slam right into Oregon around Sunday. Temperatures will warm and snow levels will increase up to 8000 feet. This scenario has about an 80% chance of occuring.
However, some models show a cold front approaching our region late Sunday night, which could increase precipitation and keep snow levels relatively lower. This solution has a 20% happening.
Overall, impacts will likely decrease into Sunday as warmer air begins to move in.
Ensembles suggest integrated vapor transport(IVT) are fairly high and around 300 to 500 along the coast based on the latest GEFS data by Monday. However, the IVTs have a strong southerly to south westerly component. We've had an IVT event like this already this fall with minimal precipitation along the coast and farther inland.
In any case, the take home point here is warming temperatures should allow for decreasing snow impacts into next week.
-Smith
AVIATION
29/00Z TAFs
VFR conditions under generally clear skies continue across northern California and southern Oregon heading into the evening, and these conditions will continue over most areas through the TAF period.
Fog in west side valleys will be the lone concern. LIFR ceilings and visibilities are expected in the Umpqua Valley later this evening, and should stay in place until Wednesday afternoon. Model guidance suggests that fog building in the Rogue and Illinois valleys will be a possibility tonight, but this relies on extra moisture and/or colder temperatures than previous evenings. Current observations do not suggest any changing conditions, so fog will remain out of the TAFs for now. -TAD
MARINE
Updated 200 PM Tuesday November 28, 2023
Seas will remain low, near the current readings of 4-5 feet at 11-13 seconds, through Wednesday night.
Thursday afternoon, active weather returns with multiple fronts expected to pass through the region from Thursday through the weekend, and continuing into early next week. Thursday evening a steep northwest swell between 11 and 12 feet will build into the waters. When a strong front moves through on Friday, gusty south winds will combine with the existing swell to increase the steepness and chaoticness of the seas.
The northwest swell will rebuild and grow throughout the day on Saturday. The trend in the forecast swell heights have been trending up in height, which could make bar crossings increasingly more hazardous. -Miles
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for ORZ023>026- 028>031.
Winter Storm Watch from Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon above 4000 feet for ORZ025-027>030.
CA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for CAZ080-081- 084-085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for PZZ356.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for PZZ370- 376.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KSIY SISKIYOU COUNTY,CA | 21 sm | 54 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | 32°F | 21°F | 64% | 30.08 |
Wind History from SIY
(wind in knots)Crescent City
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:20 AM PST 6.04 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:07 AM PST 3.66 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:22 AM PST Sunrise
Wed -- 10:03 AM PST Moonset
Wed -- 11:53 AM PST 7.67 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:47 PM PST Sunset
Wed -- 06:36 PM PST Moonrise
Wed -- 07:10 PM PST -0.94 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:20 AM PST 6.04 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:07 AM PST 3.66 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:22 AM PST Sunrise
Wed -- 10:03 AM PST Moonset
Wed -- 11:53 AM PST 7.67 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:47 PM PST Sunset
Wed -- 06:36 PM PST Moonrise
Wed -- 07:10 PM PST -0.94 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Crescent City, California, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 5.5 |
| 1 am |
| 6 |
| 2 am |
| 5.9 |
| 3 am |
| 5.4 |
| 4 am |
| 4.6 |
| 5 am |
| 4 |
| 6 am |
| 3.7 |
| 7 am |
| 3.9 |
| 8 am |
| 4.6 |
| 9 am |
| 5.6 |
| 10 am |
| 6.6 |
| 11 am |
| 7.4 |
| 12 pm |
| 7.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 7.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 6.1 |
| 3 pm |
| 4.4 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 6 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 7 pm |
| -0.9 |
| 8 pm |
| -0.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 11 pm |
| 3.3 |
Crescent City
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:19 AM PST 6.02 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:05 AM PST 3.66 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:22 AM PST Sunrise
Wed -- 10:03 AM PST Moonset
Wed -- 11:51 AM PST 7.65 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:47 PM PST Sunset
Wed -- 06:36 PM PST Moonrise
Wed -- 07:09 PM PST -0.93 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:19 AM PST 6.02 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:05 AM PST 3.66 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:22 AM PST Sunrise
Wed -- 10:03 AM PST Moonset
Wed -- 11:51 AM PST 7.65 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:47 PM PST Sunset
Wed -- 06:36 PM PST Moonrise
Wed -- 07:09 PM PST -0.93 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Crescent City, California (2) (expired 1989-12-31), Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 5.5 |
| 1 am |
| 6 |
| 2 am |
| 5.9 |
| 3 am |
| 5.3 |
| 4 am |
| 4.6 |
| 5 am |
| 3.9 |
| 6 am |
| 3.7 |
| 7 am |
| 3.9 |
| 8 am |
| 4.6 |
| 9 am |
| 5.6 |
| 10 am |
| 6.6 |
| 11 am |
| 7.4 |
| 12 pm |
| 7.6 |
| 1 pm |
| 7.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 6 |
| 3 pm |
| 4.4 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 6 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 7 pm |
| -0.9 |
| 8 pm |
| -0.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 11 pm |
| 3.3 |
Medford, OR,
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