Tuesday, October15, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Warwick, RI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 6:06PM Tuesday October 15, 2019 7:11 AM EDT (11:11 UTC) Moonrise 7:22PMMoonset 8:25AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ236 Narragansett Bay- 358 Am Edt Tue Oct 15 2019
.gale watch in effect from late Wednesday night through Thursday evening...
Today..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wed..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Wed night..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves around 4 ft. Rain. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 nm or less.
Thu..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves around 4 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of rain in the morning with vsby 1 nm or less.
Thu night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 foot or less.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 358 Am Edt Tue Oct 15 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres builds over the waters today. A gale center develops rapidly off the nj coast Wed evening and then tracks across ri and eastern ma Wed night then into nh/me Thursday. Strong E to se winds will develop ahead of the storm followed by strong wnw Thu. Diminishing northwest winds Fri into Sat. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warwick, RI
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location: 41.67, -71.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 151102
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
702 am edt Tue oct 15 2019

Synopsis
Dry and pleasant fall-like weather continues into Wednesday
morning. A strengthening storm system will move up the coast
Wednesday, moving across the region Wednesday night into
Thursday. This will bring periods of heavy rain and strong winds
to the region before moving off later Thursday. High pressure
builds in with cool, breezy conditions during the day and
possible frost freeze conditions Friday night into early
Saturday morning. Milder temperatures with continued dry
conditions expect this weekend as high pressure moves overhead.

There will be a chance for showers during Monday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
650 am update...

other than a band of high thin clouds across the CAPE cod canal
as seen on latest goes-east night fog product, skies were mainly
clear at around sunrise. Noting some patchy fog across n
central NE ct, namely kijd where vsby was 2.5sm at 11z, along
with ktan and kowd. Generally light n-nw or calm winds in place
with temps ranging to 36 degrees from kbaf to 53 degrees at 11z.

Expect any leftover fog to dissipate by mid morning as temps
rise through the 50s with lots of sunshine.

Previous discussion...

short wave ridging moves across the area today providing very
pleasant mid october weather with mostly sunny conditions and
light winds as 1020 mb high pressure crest over the region this
afternoon. Model soundings support blyr mixing up to or near 850
mb. Temps around +2c to +3c at the top of this layer will
support highs 60-65 with upper 50s across the higher terrain.

Given full sunshine and light winds it will feel even milder.

Enjoy!

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Wednesday
4 am update ...

tonight ...

chilly night ahead as surface high provides light winds and combined
with a dry atmosphere (dew pts in the 30s) and mostly clear skies,
temps will fall fairly quickly with sunset and mins will bottom out
in the 30s regionwide just before sunrise wed. Given this setup for
radiational cooling we derived mins from the coldest guidance. Not
as cool in the urban areas including boston, providence and hartford
with lows in the low 40s along with the immediate coast.

Wednesday ...

other than a chilly start enough ridging lingers Wednesday morning
for sunshine to begin the day. However expecting increasing clouds
during the afternoon along with rain overspreading the region from
west to east in response to great lakes trough approaching southern
new england. Parent low moves slowly across the great lakes
meanwhile secondary cyclogenesis ramps up off DELMARVA towards
evening. This will translate to rain likely impacting the late day
commute for western ma ct including hartford to springfield areas
but possibly holding off until after 5 pm or so for ri and eastern
ma. Obviously subject to change and given high amplitude of system a
later start time is feasible. Also with departing high and secondary
cyclogenesis developing off DELMARVA late in the day, expect
increasing ese winds in the afternoon especially CAPE cod and
islands.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
Overview...

cutoff h5 low digs e-se out of the eastern great lakes into ny
state Wed night, then pushes into new england by around 12z thu.

This low will lift NE to new brunswick nova scotia, with the
trapped surface system moving with it. High amplitude ridge from
hudson bay to the mississippi valley will shift E Friday,
reaching the eastern seaboard this weekend.

The mid level steering pattern across the northern plains to
the pacific NW flattens as a chunk of colder work begins to work
se out of western canada. This will keep mid level ridging in
place across the eastern seaboard into eastern canada, with dry
and seasonal conditions. Some question on the timing of another
cutoff h5 low shifting slowly E in the northern stream flow out
of the great lakes into next Monday.

Details...

Wednesday night and Thursday...

at the surface, low pres develops across the eastern lakes
Wednesday, which will combine with another system working up the
eastern seaboard. These lows will combine, causing the new
system to deepen rapidly with pressure falls around 20 to 22 mb
in about 6 hours Wed night into early thu.

Models continue to show differences in placement, depth and
track of this low as it crosses the region. With the rapid
development, will still quickly increasing e-se winds Wed night
which will shift around to W as the low crosses E mass by around
12z thu. 00z model members were in somewhat good agreement,
though still some timing issues to resolve. At this point, the
low should slowly cross E ri or S coastal mass after midnight
wed night, then moving off the E coast near or S of boston
toward daybreak thu.

Will still see increasing winds across the region as the low
approaches, with e-se winds gusting up to 25-40 kt along the
coast, possibly higher across CAPE cod and the islands around or
after midnight. Further inland, could see gusts up to 20-25 kt,
though should be a bit lighter across the E slopes of the
berkshires as the strong low level jet remains further e. With
the highest gusts across the coastal waters, have issued a gale
watch, with the potential of gusts up to 40-45 kt late Wed night
into thu, then slowly diminishing Thu night though could still
see some gusts to gale force.

With increasing pwat values up to 1 inch across western mass,
ranging to around 1.5 inches along the S coast, along with the
strong winds in place, will see areas of heavy rainfall across
central and western areas into NE mass. Current QPF amounts
range from around 1 to 1.5 inches across CAPE cod and the
islands up to 2.5 to locally 3 inches across the ct valley and e
slopes of the berkshires. Should not see widespread flooding,
but can not rule out urban and poor drainage flooding issues wed
night into early Thu in some of the normally prone flood areas
across ri into SE mass, and possibly the lower ct valley.

Drier air wraps around the exiting low Thu morning, but may see
another shot of light rain working across N central and W mass
during thu. W winds gusting up to 25-35 kt during the day,
possibly up to 40 kt at times along the S coast.

Light rain lingers across the E slopes of the berkshires, the
route 2 area of N mass and the outer CAPE early Thu night, but
should taper off as the low moves to the maritimes.

Friday through Monday...

blustery NW winds will linger on Friday, but conditions will be
dry as the eastern edge of high pressure begins to slowly shift
e. Expect cool temps with highs only in the 50s.

Expect winds to diminish Friday night through the weekend as
the center of the large high shifts slowly across the region.

Dewpoints Fri night fall back to the mid-upper 30s away from the
immediate coast, so could see temps fall back close to those
levels well inland by sunrise Sat morning. Otherwise, will see
dry conditions through the weekend.

Some question on the timing of low pressure system slowly
crossing the central u.S. To start off the work week. At this
point, have mentioned slight chance pops for most areas, with
low chc across W mass possible Monday afternoon.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday ...

today...

vfr. Dry and light winds.

Tonight...

vfr, dry weather and light winds. Patchy fog MVFR possible
along and near the coast after 04z.

Wednesday...

vfr and dry thru the morning. Then lowering to MVFR from west
to east during the afternoon with showers overspreading the
area. Increasing e-se winds with gusts up to 25 kt toward 00z
thu along and near the coast.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.VFR and dry weather thru
much of wed.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.VFR and dry weather thru
wed morning.

Outlook Wednesday night through Saturday ... Moderate
confidence.

Wednesday night: mainly ifr, with local MVFR possible. Strong
winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. Ra, patchy br.

Thursday: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Strong winds
with gusts up to 40 kt. Chance ra.

Thursday night: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy
with gusts up to 35 kt.

Friday:VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

Friday night:VFR. Breezy.

Saturday:VFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday ... High confidence.

7 am update ...

today...

light w-nw winds becoming light and variable as surface high
crests across the region. Dry weather and good vsby.

Tonight...

high pres moves offshore to the nearby coastal waters. Light
winds, dry conditions and good vsby prevail.

Wednesday...

1020 mb high over nova scotia at 12z Wed moves offshore and
gives way to a gale center developing off DELMARVA late wed.

This results in increasing ese winds over southern new england
late wed. Rain approaching from the west.

Outlook Wednesday night through Saturday ... Moderate confidence.

Wednesday night: moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts
up to 45 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain, isolated thunderstorms,
patchy fog. Local visibility 1 nm or less.

Thursday: moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
45 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Slight chance of rain.

Thursday night: moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts
up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Slight chance of rain.

Friday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with local
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Friday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Saturday: winds less than 25 kt.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Gale watch from late Wednesday night through late Thursday
night for anz232>234.

Gale watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
afternoon for anz230.

Gale watch from late Wednesday night through late Thursday
night for anz231-251.

Gale watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday evening
for anz236.

Gale watch from Wednesday evening through late Thursday night
for anz235-237.

Gale watch from late Wednesday night through late Thursday
night for anz250-254.

Gale watch from Wednesday evening through late Thursday night
for anz255-256.

Synopsis... Nocera evt
near term... Nocera evt
short term... Nocera
long term... Evt
aviation... Nocera evt
marine... Nocera evt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 2 mi72 min NW 5.1 G 8.9 51°F 1019.4 hPa (+1.5)
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 2 mi87 min NNW 5.1 50°F 1019 hPa42°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 3 mi72 min NW 8 G 9.9 52°F 60°F
PRUR1 5 mi72 min 51°F 41°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 7 mi78 min NW 7 G 11 51°F 60°F1019 hPa
PVDR1 8 mi72 min NW 5.1 G 6 49°F 1019.1 hPa (+1.4)
FRXM3 9 mi72 min 52°F 42°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 10 mi72 min NW 5.1 G 7 52°F 1018.9 hPa (+1.5)
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 10 mi72 min NNW 4.1 G 7 50°F 60°F1018.9 hPa (+1.4)
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 10 mi72 min 51°F 61°F1019.1 hPa (+1.5)
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 12 mi72 min N 4.1 G 8 53°F 57°F1018.8 hPa (+1.5)
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 25 mi72 min NNW 15 G 16 55°F 1019.1 hPa (+1.7)
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 37 mi72 min 55°F 61°F1018.4 hPa (+1.8)
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 44 mi87 min WNW 4.1 52°F 1018 hPa47°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 45 mi72 min NNW 1.9 G 4.1 48°F 62°F1019.1 hPa (+1.2)
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 46 mi42 min N 14 G 15 51°F 1008.5 hPa40°F

Wind History for Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Providence, Theodore Francis Green State Airport, RI6 mi81 minW 410.00 miA Few Clouds49°F39°F71%1019.2 hPa
Newport, Newport State Airport, RI10 mi79 minN 410.00 miFair50°F41°F71%1018.6 hPa
Pawtucket, North Central State Airport, RI17 mi76 minN 010.00 miFair43°F37°F82%1013.6 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA20 mi79 minWNW 510.00 miFair49°F41°F74%1018.3 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA23 mi80 minN 010.00 miFair42°F39°F89%1018.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOQU

Wind History from OQU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------------------N11NW9--E8E7S8S65SE5
1 day agoNE25NE21
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NE23------------------N18NE24N18NE18N15N15N15N15N10--
2 days agoNE25
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Tide / Current Tables for Nayatt Point, Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island
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Nayatt Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:26 AM EDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 09:31 AM EDT     5.40 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:56 PM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:50 PM EDT     4.73 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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20.7000.51.42.43.54.65.35.34.42.91.40.300.30.91.82.83.74.54.74.2

Tide / Current Tables for Westport River Entrance, Massachusetts Current
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Westport River Entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:32 AM EDT     -2.74 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:19 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:04 AM EDT     2.20 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 08:24 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 10:23 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:51 PM EDT     -2.84 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:31 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:20 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:23 PM EDT     2.19 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 10:45 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2.6-2.7-2-1.1-0.30.51.31.92.21.90.6-1.1-2.4-2.8-2.3-1.4-0.50.41.21.82.12.11.2-0.4

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.