Monday, July6, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Warwick, RI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:16AMSunset 8:24PM Monday July 6, 2020 4:08 PM EDT (20:08 UTC) Moonrise 9:54PMMoonset 6:29AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ236 Narragansett Bay- 116 Pm Edt Mon Jul 6 2020
This afternoon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se after midnight. Waves around 2 ft.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft, except 4 to 7 ft at the bay entrance. A chance of showers. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Pm Edt Mon Jul 6 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A quasi-stationary front sits south of southern new england on Monday. The along the front an chance for a shower or Thunderstorm are possible. High pressure brief returns for Tuesday, then a warm front lifts from southwest to northeast on Wednesday.
Outlook.. An area of high pressure returns for the second half of the week, this allows for fair conditions. We are watching next weekend for an area of low pressure to move north along the eastern seaboard. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warwick, RI
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location: 41.67, -71.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 061856 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 256 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020

SYNOPSIS. A cold front south of New England will stall across the waters. While a few thunderstorms are possible across northern Connecticut today, most areas should trend dry and cooler than normal with onshore flow. The cold front returns back northeast as a warm front on Tuesday, with considerable cloudiness and cooler temperatures for Tuesday. Very warm, very humid conditions move in for the late week. Showers/thunderstorms will be possible each day with some heavy downpours.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/. 235 PM Update .

Cooler northeast maritime flow across eastern MA with temperatures only in the 70s despite low clouds giving way to breaks of sunshine. Clouds will continue to erode thanks to strong July sun, thus expecting increasing sunshine remainder of the afternoon across Cape Cod and the Islands. Maritime airmass warms dramatically westward with temps approaching 90 across CT into western MA. Still somewhat humid with dew pts in the low to mid 60s. These warm temps combining with modest dew pt resulting increasing CU field with satellite showing an enhancement across the higher terrain of the east slopes of the Berks including the Worcester Hills into eastern CT.

Surface boundary well to the south across NJ, but despite CT being on the relatively cool side of this boundary temps 85-90 along with dew pts in the low 60s will yield MLCAPEs of 500-1000 j/kg. Forcing for ascent is weak but Hi Res guidance suggest as CT seabreeze boundary continues to drift northward it may become a focus for scattered showers/thunderstorms. Given marginal instability, weak forcing for ascent and the lack of wind aloft not expecting any thunderstorms to become severe. In addition, strong convection over NJ will likely preclude better instability from being advected north, providing additional support for non-severe storms in CT.

Otherwise pleasant weather by July standards with improving conditions across Cape Cod and Islands.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/. Tonight:

The warm/stationary front moves little from its daytime position over southern CT tonight. Model guidance does advance showers a little further northward, possibly even a rumble or two of what would be elevated thunder on the northern side of the boundary into western and central MA. Coverage of showers varies, but would not likely be a washout in any one area. Meanwhile further offshore, high pressure will allow more of an east-southeast/southeast flow to take hold across most of Southern New England. It's expected that low clouds from this morning, expected to have advanced offshore, will once again return back northwestward. These trends are reflected by the higher-res models and the HREF. The possibility for fog as the lower clouds roll in could be possible as well. Lows should reach the low to mid 60s.

Tuesday:

Tuesday has the look of a persistence type forecast. Considerable cloudiness from the overnight likely hanging tough throughout the bulk of the day, with the nearby warm frontal boundary making some modest northeast inroads into more of interior Southern New England. Thermo profiles look more stable than today, however, so thinking any thunderstorms would be more garden variety and better chances mainly west of ORH/PVD. I sided cloud cover and temperatures more pessimistically towards more overcast and temperatures on the lower side of guidance. Though the 925-850 mb temps progged would argue for much higher, limited heating resulted in keeping highs only in the 70s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. Big Picture .

Zonal upper flow is featured through most of the week. Closed upper low developing off the Carolinas midweek moves up the coast by Friday or Saturday.

Contours at 500-mb will be above normal through the week, but may drop back to near-normal levels Saturday and Sunday. Expect above- normal temperatures through Thursday, then near normal Friday through Sunday.

Model mass fields are similar through Thursday. GFS moves low pressure up the coast crossing New England Friday, while ECMWF moves that low pressure up the coast Saturday. Confidence is moderate-high Wednesday-Thursday, but then low confidence for Friday through Sunday.

Daily details .

Tuesday night through Thursday .

Warm front over NY/PA moves east through New England Tuesday night. Scattered showers/thunder in the lift generated by this warm front. Dew points rise through the 60s overnight as the more humid air trailing the front moves into Srn New England. The temp/dew pt spread will be near zero in many spots, which may form areas of fog. Min temps expected in the mid 60s to low 70s.

Wednesday and Thursday will feature high humidity with dew points near 70. Morning fog gives way to sunshine. Daytime heating will generate CAPE of 1000-2000 J/Kg, with LI values around -3 to -5. PW values will be 1.5 to 2.0 inches each day. This will generate scattered showers/thunderstorms each afternoon/evening, with the high PW values suggesting local downpours. Temps aloft will support max sfc temps in the mid 80s to low 90s. Dew points will support min temps in the mid 60s to low 70s.

Friday-Saturday .

As noted above, two models show differing results for the coastal low forming off the Carolinas. The GFS immediately takes it up the coast, bringing showers/thunder to Srn New England Friday. The ECMWF brings the storm up the coast a little slower, bringing showers/thunder to Srn New England Saturday. Not really a clear favorite at this time, so the forecast goes in-between with showers/thunder moving in Friday night and lingering through Saturday. The very moist southerly/southeast flow draws PW values of 2 inches to 2 5 inches. which suggests showers may be better thought of as downpours.

Sunday .

The coastal low moves off to the northeast into the Maritimes. Upper trough lingers over the Great Lakes. Upper jet of 75 kt coming around the trough swings up past Srn New England, with the forecast area under the left exit region of that jet. This will support lift over the region, and with sufficient instability in place . CAPEs will reach 1000-2000 J/Kg . to generate scattered showers/thunder Sunday midday/afternoon.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

1830z update .

Thru 00z . moderate to high confidence. MVFR cigs over Cape Cod and Islands continue to slowly erode and lift and should be marginal MVFR/VFR by 21z. Isolated MVFR possible in CT as isolated -SHRA/-TSRA develops after 20z. Otherwise VFR with light NE winds except up to 20 kt Cape Cod and Islands.

Tonight . moderate confidence. VFR to start the evening other than isolated MVFR in -SHRA/-TSRA in CT. This activity will weaken into decaying showers and enter western-central MA and possibly into RI later this evening. The trend should be toward MVFR as the night progresses. Light E-SE winds.

Tuesday . moderate confidence. Mix of MVFR/VFR but mainly dry weather. Isolated shower possible western MA into CT during the afternoon. Light SE winds.

Tuesday night . moderate confidence. VFR/MVFR trending toward MVFR/IFR as scattered showers overspread the region from west to east. Isolated thunder possible. SE winds continue.

KBOS Terminal . high confidence in TAF thru this evening. VFR and onshore flow.

KBDL Terminal . Moderate confidence in TAF. Possible VCTS/TSRA after 20z. Dry after 00z-02z.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/ .

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, patchy BR.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA, patchy BR.

Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

MARINE. Today through Tuesday: High confidence.

Winds/seas to remain below small craft advisory levels. Southeast winds on our northeastern waters on Tuesday may get marginally close to those levels at around 20-22 kt. Seas mainly 2-4'.

Fog and low clouds will continue through most of the day today on eastern waters. Some breaks in lower clouds and fog on the southern waters could result in developing thunderstorms near Block Island Sound today.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/ .

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.

Thursday through Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . WTB/Loconto NEAR TERM . WTB/Loconto SHORT TERM . Nocera/Loconto LONG TERM . WTB AVIATION . WTB/Nocera MARINE . WTB/Nocera/Loconto


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 2 mi84 min E 9.9 78°F 1019 hPa68°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 2 mi51 min 78°F 1019.2 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 3 mi51 min 76°F 75°F1018.6 hPa
PRUR1 5 mi51 min 76°F 67°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 7 mi51 min 73°F 73°F1018.8 hPa
PVDR1 8 mi51 min 80°F 1018.9 hPa66°F
FRXM3 9 mi51 min 75°F 66°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 10 mi51 min 77°F 1018.8 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 10 mi57 min 76°F 72°F1018.8 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 10 mi51 min 81°F 74°F1019.1 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 12 mi51 min 75°F 61°F1018.5 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 25 mi69 min NE 16 G 17 1019.7 hPa (+0.6)
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 37 mi51 min 72°F 70°F1019.1 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 44 mi84 min NW 1.9 71°F 1019 hPa66°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 45 mi51 min 78°F 68°F1017.1 hPa

Wind History for Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Providence, Theodore Francis Green State Airport, RI6 mi78 minENE 9 G 1610.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F64°F62%1018.7 hPa
Newport, Newport State Airport, RI10 mi76 minNE 11 G 1810.00 miA Few Clouds78°F64°F62%1018.3 hPa
Pawtucket, North Central State Airport, RI17 mi73 minE 910.00 miPartly Cloudy78°F66°F69%1013.6 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA20 mi76 minNE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F66°F74%1018.9 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA23 mi77 minVar 610.00 miA Few Clouds77°F64°F64%1018.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOQU

Wind History from OQU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE18NE20NE18NE15NE18--------------------S8S10S12S12S18S16S14S16S15
1 day agoSW15--SW8SW12E10----------------N10NE12NE14NE20NE15NE15NE15NE15NE18NE20NE17
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Nayatt Point, Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island
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Nayatt Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:08 AM EDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:28 AM EDT     5.04 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:58 PM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:49 PM EDT     5.90 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:53 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.61.20.2-0.100.61.62.94.24.94.942.51.20.3-00.20.91.93.24.65.65.95.2

Tide / Current Tables for Westport River Entrance, Massachusetts Current
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Westport River Entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:10 AM EDT     -2.58 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:20 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:28 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:53 AM EDT     2.65 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:19 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:44 PM EDT     -2.32 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:04 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:16 PM EDT     2.09 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:51 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:26 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2.6-2.4-1.8-1.1-0.30.61.52.32.620.6-1.1-2.1-2.3-2-1.4-0.8-0.10.81.52.11.80.7-0.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.