Thursday, July29, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Warwick, RI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:35AMSunset 8:08PM Thursday July 29, 2021 8:51 PM EDT (00:51 UTC) Moonrise 11:22PMMoonset 11:26AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ236 Narragansett Bay- 728 Pm Edt Thu Jul 29 2021
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers with tstms likely this evening, then showers likely with a chance of tstms after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 foot or less, except 2 to 4 ft at the bay entrance.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat..W winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sun and Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers.
Mon through Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tue night..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 728 Pm Edt Thu Jul 29 2021
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Small crafts have been hoisted for all waters overnight except for narragansett bay and boston harbor. Overnight a warm front will lift across the waters and will produce showers and a few strong to severe Thunderstorms, with a low risk for a waterspout. Improvements arrive early Friday around Sunrise as the parent low and trailing cold front clear the southern new england coastline. High pressure returns for the weekend before our next area of low pressure swings out of the great lakes region late Sunday night into early Monday. For additional information on possible hazardous weather for the week ahead, please visit www.weather.gov/boston/ehwo


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warwick, RI
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location: 41.67, -71.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 292340 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 740 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

SYNOPSIS. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible overnight south of I-90. Passing cold front produces clear skies for Friday and Saturday afternoon. A frontal system brings another threat for showers sometime Sunday and/or Sunday night. Dry weather returns for Monday before our weather pattern turns more unsettled into the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/.

730 pm update .

As expected, things have stayed quiet thus far with cores struggling to even reach 15,000 ft. Given that, we've yet to even achieve any lightning with these showers. Instability is limited for now, with a good deal of CIN from Worcester east helping to keep things in check. Over the next 6 hours the axis of greater instability shifts overhead as the warm front which still sits just to our southwest lifts north; that will be our window of a few strong to severe storms. No major changes to the previous thinking.

Previous Discussion .

.Tonight. Light to moderate showers with isolated thunder continue this evening for areas north and west of I-95. Surface low-pressure tracks northwest of southern New England overnight. Showers and thunderstorms will overspread the rest of southern New England as the surface warm front lifts northeast over the region and the surface cold front approaches from the west. There will be the potential for a couple of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms as both sufficient instability (500-1000 J/kg CAPE) and deep layer shear (35-40 knots effective shear) will be supportive of organized convection. While damaging wind gusts will be the most likely hazard, we cannot rule out the possibility of an isolated tornado. Model low-level shear and helicity values have been rather impressive for areas south of I-90 with the GFS suggesting the possibility for 1km shear values near 30 knots. Furthermore mean 1km helicity values from the HREF members are in the 100-150 unit range. Should any tornadic activity occur it would likely be limited in both duration and intensity given the relatively weak instability and poor low-level lapse rates.

In addition to the isolated threat for strong to severe thunderstorms, we're also under a slight risk for excessive rainfall tonight. PWATs > 1.5" will be supportive of heavy downpours and locally high precipitation rates. Should any training thunderstorms occur over the more vulnerable areas in western MA/CT, flash flooding could be a possibility. Showers and storms lingering into the morning should be clear of the area an hour or two after sunrise as the surface cold front pushes east of the region.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. .Friday.

Surface cold front pushes through the region tomorrow morning resulting in a windshift to the northwest. This will usher in drier air which will allow for clearing skies as the day progresses. Gusty northwest winds will support deep mixing that should support high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s for most areas in southern New England tomorrow afternoon.

.Friday Night.

Strong cold air advection behind the surface cold front coupled with radiational cooling will support chilly temperatures Saturday morning for late July. Could see lows in the upper 40s for areas out west! For reference, the average low temperature this time of year for Worcester,MA is 61 degrees. So this puts us at close to 10-15 degrees below normal (an early taste of fall). Modest winds Friday night(5-10 knots) may result in mechanical mixing that will limit radiational cooling so rather than going with the lowest guidance available, I opted to blend the consensus MOS guidance and the 25th percentile of the NBM. This seemed reasonable given the strong CAA aloft and expected clear skies.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Highlights .

* Dry, cool, and pleasant Saturday with low humidity and highs in the mid 70s.

* Relatively cool and periodically unsettled weather continues through at least mid week with no big warm up in sight.

Details .

The region will remain in this overall (relatively) cool and periodically unsettled pattern through at least the middle of next week. This is thanks in part to the persistent area of upper level troughing overhead with its axis over the Great Lakes region through the extended forecast. This places southern New England under the influence of a cool airmass with 850 mb temperatures in the +10 to +12C range. As such, while the warmest spots like the Connecticut River Valley may touch 80 a few times, most locations will see highs in the mid to upper 70s every day. For reference, normal highs for early August are in the 80s. Additionally, dewpoints in the 40s Saturday and 50s Sunday will allow for some cool nights. While Saturday morning will be the coldest, Sunday morning will still be quite cool, in the low to mid 50s inland.

A few chances for showers and thunderstorms come late Sunday into next week as shortwave after shortwave move through downstream of the parent trough. Additionally, we'll be in favorable placement to have at least one coastal storm move up along the east coast and within our vicinity first Sunday night then again potential around Tuesday or Wednesday. At this point confidence is low on potential impacts if any. Odds are good that rain returns late Sunday/Sunday night but more likely associated with the low pressure passing to our north. The system around Tue/Wed carries even less confidence. Regardless, we remain beneath cyclonic flow with periodic surges of moisture so rain chances will be off an on through the week, but no big warm ups are in sight.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/.

Highlights .

* Dry, cool, and pleasant Saturday with low humidity and highs in the mid 70s.

* Relatively cool and periodically unsettled weather continues through at least mid week with no big warm up in sight.

Details .

The region will remain in this overall (relatively) cool and periodically unsettled pattern through at least the middle of next week. This is thanks in part to the persistent area of upper level troughing overhead with its axis over the Great Lakes region through the extended forecast. This places southern New England under the influence of a cool airmass with 850 mb temperatures in the +10 to +12C range. As such, while the warmest spots like the Connecticut River Valley may touch 80 a few times, most locations will see highs in the mid to upper 70s every day. For reference, normal highs for early August are in the 80s. Additionally, dewpoints in the 40s Saturday and 50s Sunday will allow for some cool nights. While Saturday morning will be the coldest, Sunday morning will still be quite cool, in the low to mid 50s inland.

A few chances for showers and thunderstorms come late Sunday into next week as shortwave after shortwave move through downstream of the parent trough. Additionally, we'll be in favorable placement to have at least one coastal storm move up along the east coast and within our vicinity first Sunday night then again potential around Tuesday or Wednesday. At this point confidence is low on potential impacts if any. Odds are good that rain returns late Sunday/Sunday night but more likely associated with the low pressure passing to our north. The system around Tue/Wed carries even less confidence. Regardless, we remain beneath cyclonic flow with periodic surges of moisture so rain chances will be off an on through the week, but no big warm ups are in sight.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

00Z TAF Update .

Through 00Z . High confidence

Tonight . Moderate Confidence. MVFR- IFR conditions will dominate with rounds of showers and embedded t-storms with locally locally heavy rainfall. SW winds of 5 to 15 knots.

Friday and Friday night . High Confidence. MVFR ceilings early in the morning should improve to generally VFR by afternoon. Winds become NW at 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20-25 knots expected. VFR conditions continue overnight with diminishing winds.

KBOS Terminal . Moderate Confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal . Moderate Confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/ .

Saturday: VFR. Breezy.

Saturday Night: VFR.

Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

Monday Night: VFR.

Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

MARINE. Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight and Friday . High Confidence. Showers and thunderstorms this evening as a low-pressure system tracks over New England. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible over the coastal waters. Can't rule out the possibility of a waterspout. SCY conditions with 25 knots gusts and seas up to 6 feet for the outer waters.

Friday and Friday Night

Clearing skies behind the passing cold front Friday. Northwest winds gusting from 15-25 knots. SCY conditions persist into Saturday morning with sea up to 6 feet for the outer waters.

/Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/ .

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Sunday through Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ231>235-237- 254>256. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ250-251.

SYNOPSIS . BW/RM NEAR TERM . BW/RM SHORT TERM . RM LONG TERM . BW AVIATION . RM MARINE . BW/RM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 2 mi57 min SSW 5.1 G 11 70°F 1010.7 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 2 mi66 min SSW 5.1 69°F 1011 hPa65°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 3 mi57 min 69°F 72°F1009.4 hPa
PRUR1 5 mi57 min 71°F 68°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 7 mi57 min S 16 G 18 71°F 73°F1010.1 hPa
PVDR1 8 mi57 min S 16 G 18 71°F 1009.9 hPa66°F
FRXM3 9 mi57 min 68°F 68°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 10 mi57 min S 14 G 19 69°F 1010.3 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 10 mi57 min S 12 G 17 69°F 69°F1009.8 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 10 mi57 min 69°F 73°F1010.6 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 12 mi57 min S 14 G 19
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 25 mi51 min S 16 G 18 1011.7 hPa (-1.8)
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 37 mi57 min 69°F 73°F1011.2 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 44 mi66 min SSE 2.9 73°F 1011 hPa67°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 45 mi57 min 71°F 72°F1009.6 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 46 mi71 min S 17 G 22 71°F 1008 hPa57°F

Wind History for Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
N. Kingston / Quonset, RI6 mi61 minSSW 1310.00 miMostly Cloudy70°F66°F88%1009.8 hPa
Providence, Theodore Francis Green State Airport, RI6 mi60 minS 1010.00 miOvercast69°F65°F87%1009.7 hPa
Newport, Newport State Airport, RI10 mi58 minSSE 1210.00 miOvercast69°F65°F87%1009.9 hPa
Pawtucket, North Central State Airport, RI17 mi55 minS 610.00 miMostly Cloudy66°F63°F90%1010 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA20 mi58 minS 910.00 miLight Rain67°F63°F87%1010.3 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA23 mi59 minS 10 G 173.00 miHeavy Rain68°F63°F84%1009.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOQU

Wind History from OQU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--S8S8----------------S7SW11--S15SW15S18S18S20S20S20S22S26S13
1 day agoN18--N5----------------NE15NE14N16NE16NE16E11NE13NE15NE8NE8NE8SE8S8
2 days ago----------------------NW6NW5SE5SE5SE12E8S9W9W20SW10SW10SW18SW12

Tide / Current Tables for Nayatt Point, Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island
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Nayatt Point
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Thu -- 12:16 AM EDT     4.85 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 05:45 AM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:26 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:46 PM EDT     4.94 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:15 PM EDT     0.92 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.84.63.72.41.30.60.50.71.22344.74.94.43.32.11.30.911.31.82.53.3

Tide / Current Tables for Westport River Entrance, Massachusetts Current
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Westport River Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:59 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:27 AM EDT     -2.42 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:32 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:12 AM EDT     2.26 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:33 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:57 PM EDT     -2.31 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:15 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:20 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:40 PM EDT     1.97 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.4-0-1.5-2.3-2.3-1.8-1.1-0.40.31.11.82.220.9-0.7-1.9-2.3-2-1.4-0.8-0.20.51.21.8

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