Curtice, OH Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Curtice, OH

March 4, 2024 4:30 AM EST (09:30 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:01 AM   Sunset 6:29 PM
Moonrise 3:04 AM   Moonset 11:34 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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LEZ142 Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh-reno Beach To The Islands Oh- The Islands To Vermilion Oh- 947 Pm Est Sun Mar 3 2024

Overnight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.

Monday - South winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.

Monday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.

Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Wednesday through Friday.
the water temperature off toledo is 40 degrees, off cleveland 37 degrees, and off erie 37 degrees.

LEZ100
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Curtice, OH
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Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 040908 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 408 AM EST Mon Mar 4 2024

SYNOPSIS
Broad high pressure located near the east coast today will gradually retreat east into Tuesday. A cold front will cross Tuesday afternoon and evening. After the front crosses the area, low pressure will develop along it over the Ohio Valley and move into the Mid Atlantic on Wednesday. Large low pressure will move northeast into the region on Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
A stunning day of early March weather to start the work week today. The region will be on the backside of broad ridging surface and aloft, facilitating deep-layer southerly flow and continued warm air advection. There will probably be enough low- level moisture advecting in to generate a scattered cumulus field today with some cirrus drifting through at times. Still, the overall flavor should be more sun than clouds. We're starting the day in the 40s to low 50s. With southerly winds, increasingly strong March sun, mild morning start and forecast soundings suggesting mixing to at least 800mb, it will be warm today...likely warmer than most models and MOS. The 850mb temperature rule should work well today given decent mixing, suggesting highs 12-14C warmer than the expected 9-11C 850mb temperatures this afternoon. This brings everyone into the low to mid 70s, near or perhaps a degree warmer than the HRRR model's highs. The HRRR has generally performed best with highs on our recent warm days. Records will be challenged at most climate sites. Northwest OH and locations near the lake farther east may see some 20-25 MPH wind gusts this afternoon.

We stay very mild and mainly dry tonight, though clouds will be on the increase from the west ahead of an approaching cold front and upper-level trough. The arrival of weak elevated instability and a push of moisture advection may yield a few isolated showers and perhaps a bit of thunder predawn Tuesday, especially farther south and southwest towards the Marion and Mount Vernon areas. With a modest low-level jet and pressure gradient the boundary layer will have a hard time completely decoupling. Interior valleys will likely still decouple and could cool into the 40s...locations along and west of I-71, closer to the lake, and in more urban areas will stay well into the 50s tonight. Downslope flow combined with the modest low- level jet may yield wind gusts of 30-35 MPH at times tonight into early Tuesday along and north of I-90 in Erie County PA.

The weather turns busier on Tuesday as the cold front starts crossing the area late in the day. A polar jet shortwave over the upper Midwest will be shifting towards the Great Lakes on Tuesday with another shortwave in the sub-tropical jet stream lifting out of the Tennessee Valley. Moisture advection will continue ahead of the cold front, especially later in the day as the Tennessee Valley shortwave amplifies a bit. Large scale lift will be minimal through midday, though weak height falls and increasing upper-level divergence beneath coupled jet support between jet streaks over the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes are expected starting Tuesday afternoon. Isolated shower and thunder activity in association with the early-day surge of moisture advection may continue lifting into Northeast OH and perhaps Northwest PA Tuesday morning, though otherwise we shouldn't see much activity until early to mid-afternoon. From there, expect activity to develop and gradually become more widespread while spreading east through the afternoon and early evening. The day will feature some sun early before becoming mostly cloudy through the afternoon. With another warm morning start, some sun, and little rain until the afternoon, expect highs to range from the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Mid-level lapse rates will steepen to 6-7C on Tuesday with daytime heating also contributing to fairly warm and humid low- levels for early March. This will lead to modest and uncapped mixed-layer CAPE. Only weak effective bulk shear, on the order of 15-25 knots, is expected through most of Tuesday. Shear will increase a bit more Tuesday night though largely after sunset and behind the surface cold front, where near-surface stability will be higher. With weak shear, modest MLCAPE values likely on the order of 500-800 J/KG, and weak DCAPE (potential for negative buoyancy in convective downdrafts) of less than 700 J/KG am not too worried about severe weather on Tuesday. Chilly air aloft atop mixed low-levels suggest gusty winds (perhaps 40-50 MPH) and sub-severe hail may accompany a few stronger cells in the afternoon. Precipitable water (PWAT) values increase to 1-1.25" by late Tuesday, close to the daily maximum values per Wilmington, OH sounding climatology. Skinny CAPE profiles and deep-layer flow paralleling the front may lead to brief training of seasonally impressive rain rates in storms.
However, relatively dry antecedent ground conditions and low stream flows argue against any flooding threat on Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
At the start of the short term period, a somewhat strong cold front (about 10-15 degree temperature difference across the boundary) will have crossed into Northwest Ohio and Lake Erie, with a well established swath of rain showers along and ahead of this cold front. These rain showers are expected to traverse the area Tuesday night, lingering east of I-77 Wednesday morning and maybe Wednesday afternoon before departing to the east by Wednesday evening.
Instability that develops during Tuesday afternoon will linger into Tuesday night, so there will be a slight chance of thunderstorms, especially in the early parts of the night. Additional QPF will vary, from as low to a few hundredths in Northwest Ohio (where most rain will have fallen during the daytime Tuesday) to as much as 0.5" east of I-71. Modest cold air advection will bring day time high temperatures into the upper 40s and low 50s on Wednesday and Thursday with low just dipping below 40 Wednesday night, though this is still above average by about 5-10 degrees. High pressure builds in on Thursday, so should expect a decent bout of sunshine during the daytime.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Precipitation chances increase over the weekend, especially Friday night and Saturday as a low pressure system is expected to lift northeast across the area through the weekend. There is a good amount of spread regarding the low track/strength but generally shouldn't affect the forecast too much as most solutions have a large precipitation footprint with it all falling as rain. Bumped up PoPs to include categorical (80%) precipitation chances for the entire area at some point Friday night into Saturday as the vast majority of model forecasts show rain (despite some differences in the details). For QPF, areal average is around 0.5-1", with some locally higher amounts. It will likely take those locally higher amounts to get some minor flooding. NASA Sport is forecasting minor flood at PHAO1 with GFS and WPC forcing, but it's only barely reaching it, so am not expecting big problems with flooding, just a good areawide soaking rain. Mild temperatures are expected with the low pressure system itself, with highs in the 50s on Friday and Saturday. With the departing low, might finally see near normal temperatures Saturday night through Sunday, with most models supporting light lake effect snow Saturday night through Sunday morning, and then again Sunday night. It's a somewhat weak signal with 850 mb temperatures only as low as -8 C, so probably not expecting too much in the way of snow accumulations at this point.

AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/
Mainly VFR is expected through the TAF period with some cirrus moving through at times. A combination of moisture advection and daytime heating will yield some cumulus on Monday. Confidence in MVFR ceilings is not high, with a lack of upstream clouds and with most models struggling to develop more SCT clouds. Ended up keeping a SCT deck at FL025-030 at TOL, FDY and MFD from 14 or 15z through about 23z with a FL040 deck shown elsewhere.
Some internal probabilistic guidance based on BUFR data does suggest a 40-50% chance that TOL briefly sees MVFR this morning, with a 20-30% chance at MFD and 10-20% at CAK and YNG.
Didn't feel confident enough to show in the TAFs but there is enough uncertainty to monitor it. The risk for non-VFR is very low at CLE and ERI given some modest downslope flow.

Southerly winds will continue through the TAF period, backing slightly more south-southeast Monday night. Speeds will be in the 4 to 8 knot range through the pre-dawn, increasing to 7 to 12 knots later this morning through this afternoon. Some gusts to 20 or so knots are possible this afternoon, mainly at TOL, FDY and MFD. Winds will remain in the 6 to 12 knot range for most sites Tuesday night, though will increase a bit at ERI where downsloping can bring 15 knot sustained winds and 25 to 30 knot gusts at after about 3z Tuesday.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with showers and perhaps some thunderstorms on Tuesday. Showers will remain possible across the region through Wednesday and could have some residual non- VFR impacts.

MARINE
A weak warm front lifts northeast across Lake Erie today, with south winds of around 10 to 15 knots expected through Tuesday morning. A cold front moves southeast across Lake Erie Tuesday night, with initially shifts winds to out of the northwest and then northeast by the daytime Wednesday as high pressure builds in to the north.
Northeast winds of around 15 to 20 knots forecast Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening. There's a chance a small craft advisory may be needed for this period. By Friday or Friday night, winds switch around to the southeast in response to an approaching low pressure system.

CLIMATE
Near recored high temperatures are forecast for several locations on Monday, March 4, 2024. Here are the records for March 4th at area climate sites:

Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 03-04 76(1983) 75(1992) 76(1983) 74(1983) 74(1983) 70(1966)

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
TWCO1 3 mi41 min W 13G15 51°F 45°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 8 mi43 min S 7G8.9 50°F 30.0044°F
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 12 mi31 min SE 12G13 47°F 30.0342°F
CMPO1 19 mi61 min S 2.9G5.1 48°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 26 mi31 min SE 9.9G9.9 51°F 30.06
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 33 mi43 min S 1.9G2.9 46°F 30.0338°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 45 mi31 min S 5.1G7 53°F 30.00
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 48 mi106 min SSE 2.9 55°F 30.0445°F


Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KTDZ TOLEDO EXECUTIVE,OH 12 sm37 minSSE 0410 smClear48°F43°F81%30.05
KDUH TOLEDO SUBURBAN,MI 18 sm15 minS 0510 smClear50°F43°F76%30.03
KTTF CUSTER,MI 19 sm15 minSSE 0610 smClear45°F41°F87%30.03
Link to 5 minute data for KTDZ


Wind History from TDZ
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Tide / Current for
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Weather Map
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Cleveland, OH,



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