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LEZ142 Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh-reno Beach To The Islands Oh- The Islands To Vermilion Oh- 348 Am Edt Tue Oct 3 2023
Today..South winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Mostly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday night..South winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Thursday through Saturday.
the water temperature off toledo is 67 degrees, off cleveland 69 degrees, and off erie 69 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 031948 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 348 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure gradually exits east on Wednesday as a low pressure system enters from the west. A series of cold fronts will swing eastward Thursday through Saturday. A trough lingers over the area into the start of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Surface high pressure will stick around for one more day and allow for continued warmth and mostly sunny skies through Wednesday. Our pattern change begins tonight as an upper trough over the northern Plains will move eastward and cause the mid/upper ridge to exit east. We should remain dry through Wednesday night ahead of the surface cold front, though high level clouds will slowly build in overhead from the west by Wednesday morning.

Southerly flow will allow for overnight lows to remain above average in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s tonight and Wednesday night.
Afternoon highs on Wednesday about 10-15 degrees above average as they rise the mid 80s areawide.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
The dry, warm weather pattern will come to a screeching halt Thursday through the end of the workweek. On Thursday, a cold front will approach from the west and scattered showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms will blossom ahead of it. Guidance is trending a bit slower with the arrival of precipitation, so it's possible that shower activity remains to the west of the CWA until the front begins to move east into western zones Thursday night. The front will take its time moving across the area before exiting to the east on Friday afternoon or evening. By Friday evening, most spots should see a quarter to half an inch of rain before cold air advection and continued troughing aloft allow lake-enhanced rain showers to develop late in the period.

Thursday will feature one last day of above normal temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. On Friday, highs will be in the near normal upper 60s to lower 70s before temps plummet into 40s Friday night.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Upper low will park over the lower Great Lakes Saturday through early next week with multiple disturbances pivoting across the CWA.
This will result in several days of periodic scattered lake effect rain showers and below normal temperatures. Highs will generally hover in the 50s through Monday, but a few spots in NW PA may remain in the upper 40s on Sunday. Overnight lows will be quite chilly as well; currently have forecast minimum temps in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Frost is not a concern at the moment due to breezy winds and high cloud cover. The upper low should start lifting north/northeast of the area by Tuesday, allowing shower coverage to diminish late Monday into Tuesday. In addition, temps may begin to moderate to the upper 50s to lower 60s by the end of the period.

AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/
VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period as high pressure remains in place overhead. High clouds will gradually build in across the area from west to east ahead of a cold front by the end of the TAF period.

Light southerly to southeasterly winds across terminals through Wednesday morning. Any northerly flow at sites impacted by the lake breeze this afternoon (CLE/ERI) will eventually turn southerly by this evening. Ahead of the approaching cold front, southerly winds will increase to 8-10 knots by Wednesday afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in rain Thursday into Friday. Non- VFR more likely for Friday into Saturday in rain and/or lower ceilings.

MARINE
East winds 5 to 10 knots this evening will gradually shift to the south/southeast tonight through Wednesday. Southwest flow deepens to 10 to 15 knots as a cold front approaches from the west Thursday before winds become westerly and increase to 15 to 20 knots on Friday. The next opportunity for a Small Craft Advisory will likely arrive Friday evening through the end of the weekend and likely into early next week as west/northwest winds increase to 15 to 25 knots in response to strong cold air advection.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

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