Monday, October14, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mentor, OH

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:34AMSunset 6:47PM Monday October 14, 2019 9:06 PM EDT (01:06 UTC) Moonrise 6:35PMMoonset 7:06AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ147 Expires:201910150215;;715330 Fzus51 Kcle 142222 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 622 Pm Edt Mon Oct 14 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez145>149-150215- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 622 Pm Edt Mon Oct 14 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 pm edt this evening...
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest and diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less building to 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 5 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Thursday through Saturday. The water temperature off toledo is 61 degrees, off cleveland 66 degrees, and off erie 62 degrees.
LEZ147


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mentor, OH
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location: 41.69, -81.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 142338
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
738 pm edt Mon oct 14 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will move east across the area tonight and off the new
jersey coast Tuesday. Low pressure will move east across the
central great lakes and deepen rapidly by Wednesday evening. A
strong cold front will move east across the area Tuesday night.

Another low pressure will develop off the carolina coast Wednesday
and rapidly intensify as it absorbs the great lakes low pressure
system. The combined low center will move northeast along the coast
high pressure will move slowly east to the local area by Friday.

Near term through Tuesday night
Freshened sky grids through tomorrow morning. Over our land
areas, cumulus clouds have dissipated via nocturnal cooling and
boundary layer stabilization faster than previously forecast.

Otherwise, a band of lake-effect stratocumulus clouds over and
near the i-90 corridor from lake county to erie county, pa will
gradually shift northward as the mean steering flow backs from
westerly to southwesterly. These clouds should exit the entire
aforementioned area by daybreak Tuesday. In addition, pops were
decreased in the same area since trends in surface observations radar
imagery and model sounding data indicate these lake-effect
stratocumulus clouds will likely remain too thin to produce
rain. Thus, our skies are expected to trend mainly clear through
Tuesday morning with high pressure in control. The rest of the
near-term forecast remains valid.

Previous discussion... A weak broad upper level ridge will move
east across the area during this forecast period. This will
result in surface high pressure that will move east across the
local area tonight. As the high pressure moves in, the lake
effect rain showers and clouds will continue to wane this
afternoon and even further tonight. The rest of the northeast
ohio continues to see rapidly diminishing clouds as drier air
pushes into the region. Winds are expected to become very light
and variable overnight as air mass decouples. Dewpoint
temperatures upstream are in the upper 20s to lower 30s and
expecting this cooler air to move east toward the region
overnight. Therefore, expecting a widespread frost to develop
across the forecast area tonight and will hoist a frost advisory
late tonight through sunrise. Exception will be the northeast
snowbelt where the blanketing cloud cover should hang on long
enough to keep frost from forming. If they clear out much
faster, then we could see frost up there as well. Looking at
lows tonight in the middle 30s most areas and in the 40s in the
northeast.

High pressure moves east allowing moisture to advance east ahead of
the next storm system. The low pressure system will move east
through the central great lakes Tuesday and force a strong cold
front east across the local area Tuesday night. Precipitation will
move into the western portions of the forecast area by late tomorrow
afternoon. Can't rule out a possible rumble of thunder or two with
the front tomorrow night. Highs in the quick warm air advection
will recover back into the 60s tomorrow and then drop back to the
middle 40s west and lower 50s east in the cold air advection.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday night
We begin the short term period with an upper level closed low over
southern ontario and the associated surface pressure very close to
vertically stacked with this upper low. The cold front will be
slowly exiting to the east during the day on Wednesday, with the
associated widespread rain exiting the forecast area as well. Cold
temperatures aloft move over the lake immediately following the cold
front, with temperatures at 850mb at or slightly below freezing and
near or just above -10 celsius at 700mb. With lake surface
temperatures around 17 to 18 degrees celsius, that will be near 20
degrees lake sfc to 850 temperature difference. Combined with
unidirectional northwest flow and good moisture from the upper level
low, and we have ourselves a solid setup for lake effect
precipitation over northern ohio and northwestern pennsylvania. Lake
induced CAPE will be upwards of 700 j kg, which should be enough
instability to support isolated thunderstorms as well. Moisture
lingers for quite a long time, persisting through Wednesday night
and most of Thursday. Most model guidance have low level moisture
finally pushing off to the east Thursday night, with it completely
dry by at least Friday afternoon. With high pressure building in
from the west on Friday, clouds should be clearing out most of the
day Friday. With high temperatures around 60, which will be higher
than the previous two days, it should be nice fall day.

Long term Friday through Monday
With surface high pressure and the upper level ridge building in
from the west, skies should continue to become clear through the
night, with radiational cooling producing fairly cool overnight
temperatures. High pressure will have moved off to the mid-atlantic
by Saturday morning, allowing southerly winds to advect warmer air
into the region, bringing high temperatures back into the upper 60s
on Saturday. The pattern becomes more amplified on Sunday with a
deep upper level trough building over the plains on Sunday. This
trough will introduce the chance for widespread precipitation across
the area on Sunday night into Monday.

Aviation 00z Tuesday through Saturday
Vfr and fair weather expected next 24-hours as high pressure
remains in control. Skies trend mainly clear at most of the
terminals. However, lingering lake-effect cloud cover over near
keri should move offshore by about 12z wed. Patchy fog may form
for several hours around daybreak Tuesday, especially inland
from lake erie. However, forecast confidence is low for fog
formation. Regional surface winds trend light and variable
through late Tuesday morning. Thereafter, surface winds become
southerly and breezy.

Outlook Non-vfr possible in showers and isolated
thunderstorms Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Non-vfr
possible in lake-effect rain showers at near keri late
Wednesday morning through Thursday and perhaps Friday morning.

Marine
The small craft advisory will continue through this evening. Most
observations along the lakeshore are showing waves of around 4 feet
with west winds as high as 25 knots. Winds are expected to slowly
diminish this evening into tonight as high pressure builds in from
the west. As this high pressure moves east of lake erie and low
pressure develops over the western lakes, southerly winds increase
up to 10 to 20 knots 18z Tuesday through 06z Wednesday. The
aforementioned area of low pressure progresses eastward Tuesday
evening and Wednesday overnight, deepening to 998mb over lake huron
by 12z Wednesday. The associated cold front will move east across
the lake on Wednesday, with fairly strong westerly winds of 20 to 25
knots immediately behind the front. A fairly strong pressure
gradient is expected to persist over the lake through at least 00z
Friday, through which at least small craft advisory conditions will
be present. Gale force winds may be possible over the open waters of
lake erie briefly late Wednesday night, which will largely be
dependent on how strong the low pressure will deepen to. A couple
models have the low getting to as low as 994 mb on Wednesday
afternoon. Waves of up to 10 feet may be possible late Wednesday
night over the open waters of lake erie. Winds will diminish through
the day on Friday as high pressure builds in from the west.

Southerly winds of 10 to 15 knots develops on Saturday as this high
pressure pushes off to the east coast.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... Frost advisory from 2 am to 9 am edt Tuesday for ohz003-
006>010-017>023-027>033-036>038-047.

Pa... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for
lez145>149.

Synopsis... Lombardy
near term... Jaszka lombardy
short term... Saunders
long term... Saunders
aviation... Jaszka lombardy
marine... Saunders


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 6 mi48 min W 12 G 15 52°F 62°F1018.7 hPa40°F
45164 19 mi66 min 62°F2 ft
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 19 mi54 min W 9.9 G 12 54°F 64°F1018.6 hPa39°F
45176 25 mi46 min NNW 5.8 G 12 55°F 65°F2 ft
45169 26 mi36 min WNW 9.7 G 16 55°F 65°F2 ft
LORO1 48 mi36 min W 14 G 16 55°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cleveland / Cuyahoga, OH11 mi21 minN 020.00 miClear39°F37°F93%1019 hPa
Cleveland, Burke Lakefront Airport, OH22 mi13 minWSW 610.00 miFair53°F37°F55%1018.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCGF

Wind History from CGF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10S10S10SW10SW12
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1 day agoS4S7S7S6S8S7SE5S5S4S5S6S5S8
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2 days agoS9S7S5SE5SE6W16W13W12
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SW10SW11SW13SW14W11SW11SW7SW14SW15SW9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.