Wednesday, April8, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mentor, OH

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 8:00PM Wednesday April 8, 2020 1:39 PM EDT (17:39 UTC) Moonrise 7:54PMMoonset 6:35AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ147 Expires:202004081415;;752545 Fzus51 Kcle 080753 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 353 Am Edt Wed Apr 8 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez145>147-081415- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh- 353 Am Edt Wed Apr 8 2020
Today..West winds 5 to 10 knots. A slight chance of showers early. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..South winds 10 knots or less becoming west 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Thursday night..West winds 20 to 25 knots. A chance of rain showers in the evening, then rain showers likely overnight. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Friday through Sunday. The water temperature off toledo is 47 degrees, off cleveland 42 degrees, and off erie 43 degrees.
LEZ147


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mentor, OH
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location: 41.69, -81.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 081551 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1151 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure over northern Ontario today will extend a cold front across the area tonight. As this low moves east to the New England states and deepens, a residual trough of low pressure will linger over the area through Friday. High pressure inches in from the west on Saturday. Low pressure develops over the central Plains on Sunday and will move northeast towards the Great Lakes region for next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/. Quick update as fog is moving inland from Lake Erie. Visibilities are between 1/2 and 1 mile in the fog.

Previous Discussion . Shower and thunderstorm activity from early this morning has all but cleared the area to the south as weak high pressure enters the region. Some lingering showers may be possible along a residual boundary along the lakeshore through the morning hours. The convective activity from the overnight has not cooled down the area with temperatures in the mid to upper 50s across much of the area and warm air still lingering above the surface. The clearing trend should continue through the day today and temperatures should actually recover well over the area with a drier air mass in place. Temperatures will not be as warm as Tuesday but into the 60s to lower 70s.

Low pressure over Ontario will move east tonight into Thursday and extend a cold front across the forecast area. This front will generate another round of showers and thunderstorms overnight Wednesday into Thursday. Storms should be less exciting with a drier air mass in place and an inversion near the surface may keep storms mostly elevated. Cold air aloft wraps in fairly quickly behind the cold front on Thursday and temperatures at 850 mb will settle into the -4 to -6C range over Lake Erie. Some lake effect rain showers may be plausible. High temperatures will struggle on Thursday, remaining in the 40s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. The short term begins Thursday night with models showing deep low pressure over northern New England. High pressure will be centered over the Northern Plains. Between the two, northerly flow of unseasonably cold air will move south across the lakes and into the Ohio Valley. The NAM and GFS show 850mb temps around -5 to -6C at 00Z Fri with temps dropping to -9C by 12Z Friday. Would expect lake effect rain and snow to develop Thursday night and continue into Friday with conditional instability from the lake to 850mb. Shear is low and mixed layer is deep and dendritic growth zone is moist so this could be interesting depending on surface temps. For now will keep any accum low. Friday night and Saturday look dry with building high pressure. Highs Friday mid 30s nwrn PA to mid 40s far west. Highs Saturday 45 to 50.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Saturday night into Sunday models have low pressure developing in the Southern/Central Plains with southerly flow ahead of the low out of the glfmx and into the Ohio Valley. Will have chance pops west after midnight increasing to likely by Sunday afternoon across much of the area as the low moves ene. The GFS takes the low to IL while the ECMWF moves it to AR. Time doesnt improve model agreement Monday through Tuesday with the GFS taking the low across the western lakes into Ontario deepening it significantly while the ECMWF moves it through nwrn OH Monday morning and into southern Quebec by Tuesday. The GFS is also significantly colder vs the ECMWF. Will, for now, follow a model blend until better agreement can be had. So for Monday into Tuesday expect more clouds than sun and chance pops for mainly rain.

AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/. A stratus deck has developed in the wake of showers and thunderstorms this morning. This area of stratus should linger through the next few hours before ultimately lifting as temperatures increase through the day. After several hours of clearing, a cold front approaches from the northwest tonight and will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms to the region. Have MVFR conditions with these showers and storms tonight with non-VFR ceilings expected behind the cold front. Winds will begin to pick up behind the cold front and could be gusty on Thursday.

OUTLOOK. Non-VFR again possible Thursday into Friday with rain and low ceilings.

MARINE. Quick update as fog is moving south and inland from Lake Erie. Visibilities are between 1/2 and 1 mile in the fog.

Previous Discussion . Main feature for Lake Erie will be a strong cold front moving west to east across the lake tonight. Expect light winds through midnight with winds reaching 15 to 20 knots from the nw by 12Z Thursday. Winds back to west and increase during the afternoon and increase to 20 to 25 knots Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon before diminishing Friday night. A small craft advisory can be anticipated for the period. No other headlines are expected Saturday through Sunday with winds expected under 15 knots.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . Sefcovic NEAR TERM . Lombardy/Sefcovic SHORT TERM . TK LONG TERM . TK AVIATION . Sefcovic MARINE . TK/Lombardy


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 6 mi52 min 46°F 52°F1007.6 hPa46°F
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 19 mi58 min WNW 5.1 G 6 45°F 48°F1007.6 hPa45°F
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 23 mi70 min W 8.9 G 11
LORO1 48 mi70 min W 8 G 8.9 51°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cleveland / Cuyahoga, OH11 mi55 minWNW 57.00 miOvercast52°F48°F88%1007.4 hPa
Cleveland, Burke Lakefront Airport, OH22 mi47 minW 70.25 miFog49°F46°F90%1007.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCGF

Wind History from CGF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5S5SW5SW4SW5SW5SW6SW4SW4SW6--N4E3--S4----W8CalmNE5E3NW5NW5W5
1 day agoN7NE7N7N7NE5NE7NE5E5E5CalmE3E3N3--CalmCalmCalmE4SW6CalmCalmS6S8SW7
2 days agoN7N7N8NW5N8N6NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm----N6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.