Tuesday, January21, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Marion Center, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 4:46PM Tuesday January 21, 2020 1:06 PM EST (18:06 UTC) Moonrise 5:18AMMoonset 2:51PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 1016 Am Est Tue Jan 21 2020
This afternoon..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Wed..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less.
Wed night..NW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Thu..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Thu night..W winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri and Fri night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain.
Sat night..E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain likely. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 1016 Am Est Tue Jan 21 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres builds in from the west and remains in control through the end of the work week. Low pressure may approach the waters from the southwest on Saturday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marion Center, MA
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location: 41.7, -70.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 211507 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1007 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2020

SYNOPSIS.

High pressure will build over southern New England for most of the week, bringing dry weather and moderating temperatures. There is the potential for a coastal storm this weekend, but uncertainty exists in regards to timing and precipitation types.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/.

10 AM Update .

Nudged down high temperatures for today a few degrees based on the latest obs as we are just a bit too warm. Otherwise forecast remains on track. Light ocean effect snow showers still possible across Cape Cod. Best opportunity for this is across the outer Cape.

Previous Discussion .

High pres in control. Column is rather dry and sunshine will give way to increasing high clouds later today from the north as mid level shortwave moves into northern New Eng. The one caveat for today is potential for ocean effect clouds and flurries/snow showers for the outer Cape. Steep low level lapse rates over the ocean and delta T from SST to top of the shallow boundary layer around 17-18C so enough low level instability for clouds and perhaps a few flurries or snow showers. N wind trajectory favors the outer Cape and some of the hi-res sources are indicating some light QPF so have indicated chc pops here. Low risk for a coating to one half inch for the outer Cape. Low level cold air remains in place with 925 mb temps around -10C so expect highs 25 to 30.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/. Tonight . Any ocean effect clouds or flurries over the outer Cape will dissipate as low level moisture decreases and inversion lowers. Otherwise, some mid/high clouds expected to move through the region, especially across northern and eastern MA as shortwave rotates SE through the Gulf of Maine. Potential cloud cover may have some impact on low temps so went a bit above MOS guidance with temps mostly in the teens, with some single numbers in western MA.

Wednesday . Mid level shortwave moves well east of New Eng with ridging building into the region. High pres will remain in control at the surface. Expect lots of sunshine with light winds and moderating temps. Highs will range through the 30s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. Highlights .

* Milder, above normal temperatures Thu/Fri with continued dry weather

* Coastal storm this weekend brings rain/snow chances Sat/Sun, favoring more rain than snow along the I-95 corridor, but uncertainty in precip type remains.

Details .

Wednesday night through Friday .

Dry, quiet weather rounds out the very quiet work week. This under a building ridge of sprawling high pressure. A noticeable change from the first half of the week will be the rebounding temperatures. We'll be back toward normal and then some as low and mid level flow comes out of the S/SW on the back side of the high and draws in milder air. A subsidence inversion under the high pressure will keep mixing very shallow (model soundings indicate to around 950 mb); should see highs in the low to mid 40s each day. A weak gradient may allow for sea breezes keeping things cooler along the coast. Lows dip into the 20s/low 30s Thursday and Friday nights, colder on Wednesday night (teens) due to light winds, little cloud cover, and resultant radiational cooling, in addition to the colder airmass we start with.

Saturday and Sunday .

For Saturday we are becoming increasingly confident that our stretch of quiet weather will come to an end, though details regarding exact onset time and precip type are less certain. A digging 500 mb trough and sfc low over the Ohio Valley move into the mid-Atlantic, generating a coastal system that will move east in the vicinity of southern New England from Saturday through Sunday, perhaps even lingering into Monday. At this point the best chance for snow continues to be in the interior, especially the higher elevations given the marginal/warm antecedent airmass and the expected low track too far north to bring with it the cold air necessary for snow to the coast. Wintry precip, however, is certainly still a possibility anywhere. EC ensemble probabilities of >1" snow continue to exhibit a SE creep over the last several model runs, so plenty is still left to be seen in regards to any snow potential for the rest of southern New England. Blocking high pressure in eastern Canada will play a role, potentially assisting with colder air, and slowing the low as it ejects. This will be a very wet system (QPF totals up to over 1" possible), and slow moving, with potential to drop a significant amount of snow in interior southern New England that would be disruptive and impactful. Stay tuned.

Monday .

Still some question as to how quickly the weekend system exits but Monday should be dry or drying out as the low exits to the northeast and high pressure builds in from the west.

AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Wednesday/ . High confidence.

VFR. Patchy ocean effect MVFR cigs and a few -SHSN may develop today after 12z over the outer Cape.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/ .

Wednesday Night through Friday: VFR.

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA, chance SN.

MARINE. Short Term /through Wednesday/ . High confidence.

Diminishing wind/seas becoming light today with light winds/seas continuing through Wed as high pres in control. Scattered snow showers possible today and this evening over waters east of Cape Cod.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/ .

Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Chance of rain.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . KJC/BW NEAR TERM . BL/BW SHORT TERM . KJC LONG TERM . BW AVIATION . BL/BW MARINE . BL/BW


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 13 mi54 min 27°F 37°F1028.3 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 14 mi81 min WNW 5.1 30°F 1028 hPa14°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 22 mi54 min 26°F 38°F1029.3 hPa
FRXM3 23 mi54 min 25°F 2°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 23 mi48 min 29°F 1029 hPa
44090 24 mi36 min 40°F3 ft
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 26 mi66 min N 9.9 G 12 24°F 1029.1 hPa (-0.7)
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 28 mi86 min 2 ft
PRUR1 31 mi48 min 26°F 3°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 32 mi48 min 26°F 37°F1029.1 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 32 mi81 min NNE 8.9 26°F 1030 hPa5°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 32 mi48 min 25°F 1029.7 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 34 mi54 min 24°F 33°F1029 hPa
PVDR1 35 mi48 min 27°F 1029.4 hPa2°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 36 mi48 min 24°F 36°F1029.3 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 36 mi54 min 24°F 38°F1029.3 hPa
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 45 mi48 min 30°F 35°F1028 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 45 mi76 min NW 7.8 G 12 22°F 42°F2 ft1029 hPa (+0.0)12°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 47 mi76 min N 5.8 G 9.7 27°F 3 ft1028.5 hPa (+0.0)15°F
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 48 mi48 min 22°F 38°F1028.4 hPa

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA12 mi73 minN 710.00 miFair27°F1°F34%1028.6 hPa
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA12 mi70 minN 410.00 miFair27°F8°F46%1028.4 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA15 mi74 minN 410.00 miFair25°F3°F40%1028.9 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA20 mi74 minNNW 710.00 miFair25°F1°F37%1029 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA21 mi73 minN 910.00 miPartly Cloudy28°F10°F49%1028.4 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA24 mi70 minN 13 G 1710.00 miFair30°F16°F56%1027.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFMH

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
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--N8N5CalmCalmNW7NW7NW7NW5NW5NW5NW5NW5NW5NW5NW8NW11N11N10N6--N4NE6
1 day agoNW15NW15NW15NW15NW10NW10NW10NW10NW11
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2 days agoSW4SW4SW5S4S6SE6--SE11
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Tide / Current Tables for Great Hill, Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts
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Great Hill
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:17 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:58 AM EST     4.58 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:38 AM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:51 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:43 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:22 PM EST     3.68 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:20 PM EST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.31.12.13.34.24.64.23.22.11.10.40.100.31.12.13.13.63.52.81.80.80.1-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:05 AM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:16 AM EST     3.99 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:17 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:27 AM EST     -0.13 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:21 AM EST     -4.42 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 12:40 PM EST     0.12 knots Slack
Tue -- 01:50 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 03:59 PM EST     4.20 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:43 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:11 PM EST     -0.20 knots Slack
Tue -- 09:54 PM EST     -4.17 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.92.73.643.93.42.1-2.4-3.8-4.4-4.3-3.7-2.41.73.344.243.31.4-2.8-3.9-4.2-3.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.