Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Poughkeepsie, NY

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/

UPDATE
As of 653 AM EDT...The previous forecast remains in good shape with this update, as only minor adjustments were needed to ensure temperatures reflected latest obs. Additional details can be found in the previous discussion below.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION [444 AM EDT]...
Surface high pressure currently rests overhead with thin, high cirrus spread throughout the region in advance of a frontal system tracking farther north and east into the Upper Midwest.
Mid to upper- level ridging will crest over the region later this morning, keeping much of eastern New York and western New England dry into early this afternoon even as it begins to depart to the east along with the surface anticyclone. Clouds will increase throughout the day ahead of the incoming system, but breaks of sun, especially this morning, and sufficient mixing will allow temperatures to rise into the 50s to low 60s with isolated pockets of upper 40s at the highest elevations of the Southwest Adirondacks.

As the aforementioned frontal system farther traverses the Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes region this afternoon, warm air advection will increase and weak isentropic lift will spread into the region ahead of the cyclone's attendant warm front.
Though there will be plenty of dry air to overcome in order for rain to reach the ground, onset of showers will first be seen in portions of the western Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley in the early to mid- afternoon hours as showers gain spatial coverage from northwest to southeast. Southerly flow will promote orographic lifting effects on southward- facing slopes of the Southwest Adirondacks in order to help overcome aforementioned low- level dry air while lower- lying areas may take a bit to saturate without the enhancement to vertical ascent. Still, scattered light showers will spread southeastward throughout the afternoon into the early part of the evening, possibly as far south as Albany before the termination of the near term period.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Light showers continue to spread south and eastward this evening and into the overnight period as the low reaches southeast Ontario and begins to occlude. However, as this is a fairly progressive system, the occluded boundary will complete its passage through the region by tomorrow morning, swiftly bringing an end to all shower activity as dry air is entrained into the region and subsidence increases in the face of another surface high building eastward in the wake of the front. By tomorrow morning, all areas will have seen at least some rain, with expected QPF ranging from around 0.05" to 0.25" and locally higher pockets of 0.35" or so in the higher terrain regions of the Southwest Adirondacks and Southern Greens. Low temperatures tonight will largely fall to the 40s.

Clouds will quickly begin to erode through tomorrow afternoon with high temperatures becoming somewhat variable behind the front. Values will range from the upper 40s to upper 50s across higher terrain with low 60s to potentially mid 70s elsewhere.
Dry conditions will then be maintained through Wednesday night as high pressure remains in control at the surface and flow aloft remains relatively zonal before beginning to weakly ridge overhead Wednesday night. Low temperatures Tuesday night will fall to the 30s to low 40s before highs Wednesday rise into the mid/upper 50s to low 70s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Key Message:

- Moderate to high confidence (70-90%) in mild and dry weather Thursday into early Friday.

- Moderate confidence (50-60%) for showers Saturday.

Discussion:

Transient upper level ridging looks to bring a period of fair weather for Thursday into early Friday, along with above normal temperatures (70s in valley areas and 60s for higher elevations).
Frontal system and strong shortwave tracking across the Great Lakes/SE Canada looks to bring showers to the region late Friday into Saturday. 01Z NBM 24-hour probs for >0.50" rainfall ending 8 PM Saturday are 30-50%, greatest across higher elevations of the southern Adirondacks/southern VT and eastern Catskills, so there could be a widespread soaking rainfall if current trends continue.
Turning cooler with highs in the 60s for valleys and 50s across higher terrain.

Progressive nature of frontal system/shortwave should allow for a return to fair weather Sunday, though it may be somewhat breezy and cooler, with high temps in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Overnight lows in the 30s to lower 40s.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Through 12Z/Tue...VFR conditions expected through at least 02Z/Tue, with gradual lowering of high/mid level clouds ahead of approaching warm front. Some spotty light showers may graze KGFL between 19Z- 22Z/Mon, but should not limit Vsbys/Cigs. More widespread showers are expected to develop from west to east after 02Z/Tue, and may produce a few periods of MVFR Cigs/Vsbys. Showers should taper off after 06Z-08Z/Tue, however MVFR Cigs may linger until 12Z/Tue, with a slight chance of IFR/LIFR Cigs developing at KPSF.

Light/variable winds will become southeast to south and increase to 8-12 KT by late morning, with a few gusts of 20-25 KT (perhaps slightly higher at KALB) developing Monday afternoon. These winds should continue Monday evening, although gusts should decrease to less than 20 KT. Low level wind shear will be possible after 02Z/Tue as south to southeast sfc winds remain 8-12 KT, while winds around 2000 FT AGL veer into the south/southwest at 30-35 KT.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.

FIRE WEATHER
Dry conditions persist into at least early this afternoon across much of eastern New York and western New England today ahead of an incoming frontal system that will bring light showers later this afternoon into the overnight period tonight. Though winds will become breezy in advance of this system and deeper atmospheric mixing will help to keep low-levels dry, the lesser magnitude of wind speeds and higher relative humidity in comparison to yesterday mitigated the concern of elevated risk of fire spread today. Therefore, after coordination with fire weather partners and neighboring offices, there will be no Special Weather Statements issued.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.