DISCUSSION
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

Upper cloudiness from TD Francine has extended into portions of Iowa this afternoon as this system slowly meanders north. Otherwise, southeast winds have increased over western Iowa with a tightening pressure gradient across the Plains. Temperatures remain warm with thicknesses holding above normal for this time of year. Smoke from western wildfires also continues to pass overhead. The smoke and cirrus will continue to move across the state tonight ahead of Francine. Temperatures are forecast to remain warmer than last night with increasing moisture and clouds helping to curtail radiational cooling despite light winds.

Models have become consistent with a piece of Francine lifting northward into Iowa on Friday before eventually becoming caught up in the westerlies and moving to the northeast. Weak lift associated with this shortwave increases into the southeast and south central portions of Iowa by midday Friday with the lift pushing north through central and eastern Iowa during the afternoon and night.
Isolated to scattered shower activity is expected to gradually push north through central Iowa, mainly along and east of Interstate 35 during this time. Otherwise, the higher coverage of cloudiness should keep highs lower across much of the area with insolation being limited.

Thereafter, the remnants of Francine remain in the southeast United States with a quasi-Rex block remaining in place this weekend into a good portion of next week. Iowa remains mainly in southwest flow aloft allowing temperatures to stay above normal through the week.
Both GFS and Euro have varying solutions with the large western trof and evolution of the numerous shortwaves ejecting northeast out of it. While some of these may have potential impact on the state, it appears the large scale impacts likely wait until the very end of the forecast period and beyond.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

Confidence is medium to high that VFR conditions will persist through the period. High cloud ceilings from Francine remnants cover much of IA at 06z and those conditions are expected to continue into Friday, with the possible exception of VFR stratus near KOTM. Ceilings are expected to lower somewhat later in the day Friday however over most areas, lasting into Friday night, but they are expected to remain VFR at this point. Some scattered light showers may develop in parallel with the stratus formation, but the confidence in occurrence and location is insufficient to mention at this lead time.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.