NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
1020 PM Update:

High pressure offshore of Provincetown is extending a surface ridge axis SSW through south-coastal MA, CT and RI; it is here where the strongest cooling rates have been observed over the last couple hours, with temps in the low to mid 50s, close to observed dewpoints. Further north, enough of a light SSW flow is keeping temps here in the mid 50s to lower 60s at this hour.
Won't be too much change to the position of the high pressure area through the remainder of the evening.

The more notable fcst changes were in southeast MA, RI and eastern CT. Adjusted hourly temps downward using bias- corrected HRRR datasets which shows the lower temps over southeast New England the best. This resulted in reducing lows here as well into the upper 40s to lower 50s, and some areas were already at or below their forecast lows. Because temps were already near dewpoint temps in these same southeastern New England areas, I ended up adding a mention of fog too. MOS guidance doesn't really show much signal for this, although the higher-resolution model guidance does; seeing as there is already an expanding fog layer east of ACK currently, in light of the observed temp/dewpoint spreads felt it should be added in. The extent of the fog is in some question with how dry it has been of late though.

No other fcst changes needed attm for the remainder of Southern New England.

Previous discussion:

High pressure just offshore. Light S to SW winds for some, with calm winds for others. Near normal temperatures expected with overnight lows dipping into the upper 40s to low 50s. Patchy fog possible late tonight mainly in portions of the CT River valley.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
Not much change to the overall pattern. High pressure offshore, but still nearby. It looks like S/SW winds could keep the seabreeze from developing along the east coast of MA, but would be more comfortable with that statement if winds were slightly stronger. Will need to monitor the potential for a seabreeze with later forecasts.

Near to slightly above normal temperatures expected.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Highlights:

* High pressure remains in control through early next week, allowing for continued dry weather.

The dry weather pattern continues well into the extended forecast as guidance agrees that an upper-level blocking ridge will keep high pressure parked over the region. With clear skies during the day, high temps will top out in the low to mid-80s through the middle of next week. Expecting good radiational cooling each night with light winds and clear skies.
Blended the NBM and consensus MOS for overnight lows through Tuesday, bringing temps in the mid to upper 50s.

Looking way ahead to late next week, guidance indicates the upper level ridge will start to break down, with some weak shortwave energy moving through. This would be the next best chance for precip, but uncertainty remains high. Stayed with NBM for POPs for the middle to end of next week, showing 20-40% precip chances.

We continue to monitor tropical development in the eastern Atlantic and near the SE Atlantic coast. NHC shows several areas of possible tropical development, along with the newly formed Tropical Depression Seven. With the blocking ridge overhead, this should steer any tropical activity away from our region.
For more information, please visit www.nhc.noaa.gov.

AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

High confidence.

Tonight: High confidence overall, though is moderate on fog development.

Mainly VFR; higher moisture levels would favor a better chance for patchy radiation fog across portions of southeast MA and RI and into portions of eastern CT after 06z. May need to introduce mention of BR/FG for the Cape airports and perhaps into PVD too with later TAFs issuances. Light SE to S winds, calm at times.

Thursday and Thursday Night: High confidence.

Any fog which developed overnight becomes VFR early Thu morning.
S/SW winds around 5-10 kt; looks like eastern MA seabreeze stays offshore of KBOS.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Monday/...

VFR.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Thursday Night: High confidence.

High pressure remains over the waters for the next several days.
Light winds with daily sea breezes are expected, and seas 2 ft or less expected.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Monday/...

Winds less than 25 kt.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.