Thursday, November14, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Yarmouth Port, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:27AMSunset 4:23PM Thursday November 14, 2019 8:01 PM EST (01:01 UTC) Moonrise 7:05PMMoonset 9:23AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ231 Cape Cod Bay- 716 Pm Est Thu Nov 14 2019
.gale watch in effect from late Friday night through Saturday morning...
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat..N winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Sat night and Sun..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sun night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. A chance of rain.
Mon..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Rain likely.
Mon night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. A chance of rain.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of rain.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Pm Est Thu Nov 14 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A weak low pres trough will move over the waters this evening. A strong cold front will move across the waters Fri night followed by strong high pres building to the north on Sat with gale force wind gusts possible. On Sunday, high pres will remain to our north while an ocean storm approaches from the south then passes southeast of the waters Sunday night into Mon. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Yarmouth Port, MA
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location: 41.71, -70.29     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 142348
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
648 pm est Thu nov 14 2019

Synopsis
High pressure moving offshore will draw milder air into southern new
england tonight and Friday. Two cold fronts sweep south from canada
Friday afternoon and night. Neither has more than a few clouds with
it. But behind the second front will be much colder air and gusty
north winds. High pressure will bring a brief period of dry
weather Sunday. A coastal storm will then bring rain and wind,
possibly some ice Sunday night and Monday. A second storm may
impact the region Wednesday and Thursday.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
630 pm update:
forecast appears generally on track with only minor, noise-
level changes to hourly temps, dewpoints and winds with this
update.

Warm front continues to lift northward from central into
northern ma, with a considerable amount of at least mid-level
cloud cover areawide on enhanced southwest mid-level flow. Radar
shows some returns back into northwest ma into northern ct but
any echoes are falling into a still rather dry low-level air
mass. Other than some light showers towards the outer cape
(chatham reporting some light showers last hr) that should end
around 9-10 pm, most areas are dry and will continue to remain
so through the balance of the overnight. Will see greater
clearing across interior sections late tonight into overnight as
dry air filters in, with more clouds toward coastal ri and se
mass and adjacent waters.

Forecast lows look on pace at this point - though may need to
give some consideration in later updates towards raising lows
up a couple degrees from plymouth, bristol and providence
counties southeastward, especially if clouds were to linger into
the night.

Previous discussion follows...

a warm front with a few showers shifts north and east of our area
this evening. Moisture along this front is shallow and limited, with
pw values around 0.50 inch as it moves into the gulf of maine. This
should mean light amounts where the showers fall, with the most
falling over CAPE cod and islands.

Drier air moves in at all levels after midnight. Expect clearing
skies most places overnight, although clouds may linger on CAPE cod
and islands until morning.

Dew points will range from mid 20s northwest to mid 40s on
nantucket. This will keep min temps milder than last night with
values ranging from the mid 20s north and west to the mid 40s on
nantucket.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Friday night
Model maps show either two cold fronts, or a pre-frontal trough and
a cold front, moving across southern new england. The first
trough front moves through Friday afternoon, the second front moves
through early Friday night. Cross sections show limited moisture
with dry air at 850 mb and above. Pw values less than 0.50 inch.

This may be enough for a few clouds but little more.

Mixing depths Friday midday will reach between 925 and 950 mb.

Temperatures in this layer will support MAX sfc temps in the upper
40s and lower 50s, cooler in the worcester hills and berkshire east
slopes. This may also tap 20 kt winds at the top of the layer and
draw them to the surface in wsw wind gusts.

After the second front moves through Friday night, winds will turn
out of the north and draw much colder air into our area. The winds
will gust 25-30 kt 30-35 mph with strongest winds along the coast.

Temperatures upstream over saskatchewan were in the teens last
night, and this looks reasonable for us Friday night. The
combination will bring wind chills in the single numbers.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
Highlights...

* temperatures moderate to near seasonal levels but pattern looks
unsettled with multiple storm chances.

* an ocean storm may impact sne Sun night into Tue morning with rain
and coastal wind along with pockets of ice across the interior.

Low confidence on storm impacts and precip types.

* another coastal storm may impact the area Wed into Thu but
again low confidence on storm impacts and precip types.

Details...

Saturday night into Sunday...

a cold night with widespread teens in the interior with low to mid
20s for much of eastern ma and ri except for the immediate coast and
cape cod, which drops into the upper 20s to mid 30s. Expect clouds
to be on the increase Sun morning from the se. By Sun afternoon,
expect NE ene winds to pick up especially near the coast as a storm
comes up the coast. Sunday high temperatures will likely be
warmer than on Sat but still running 5 to 10 degrees below
normal (for reference). And despite temperatures in the mid 40s
in eastern ma and ri on Sun afternoon, the winds will make it
feel like the low to mid 30s. Further south, an area of low
pressure along the southeast coast moves northeastwards to the
carolina coast, which is potentially our next weather maker.

More below.

Sunday night into Monday...

there are still plenty of questions with regards to how fast the
aforementioned storm will track up the coast and how close it will
approach our area given the large spread of model guidance. One
thing to watch is a possible period of ice in interior ma sometime
on Monday with warm air aloft a cold air mass if the storm were to
come up a little closer. But overall, expect chances of shower to be
on the increase late Sunday night into early Monday morning. Gfs
soundings in bufkit show a warm nose of +2 to +4c at 850mb in orh on
Monday, with surface temperatures staying at or below freezing the
entire day. However, the ECMWF shows the storm staying well south of
the 70w 40n benchmark, which would leave most of our area dry with
some isolated rain showers towards the cape. Given the wide spread
in models, opted to go with a model blend. The blend shows a chance
of freezing rain or sleet west of a torrington ct-enfield ct-
worcester ma line on Mon morning changing over to rain showers early
mon afternoon before a possible brief switch back to freezing rain
on Mon night and finally ending as rain on Tue morning. East of that
line, there could be intermittent rain showers into Tue morning
before drying out on Tue afternoon. At this point, it should be
emphasized that the confidence in specific locations and duration
for possible icing is extremely low. Would definitely have to see
more consistency in model runs before having more confidence. But
with low-level cold air holding its ground and plenty of mid-level
warm air advection associated with low level jet on Monday, the
potential for icing does exist, particularly for interior areas.

Tuesday...

as mentioned above, showers linger on Tue morning, with potential
icing in interior ma ct. As temperatures rise, any icy mix in the
interior should transition to rain showers by late morning. Expect
precipitation to taper off late afternoon. Tue evening should be dry
but with plenty of clouds. Afternoon highs range from low to mid 40s
in western ma ct to upper 40s to low 50s in eastern ma and ri.

Tuesday night into wed...

the dry period looks to be brief as a storm that develops along the
base of a large trough in eastern u.S. And comes up the coast.

Again, there is a wide spread in model guidance. The GFS shows the
storm tracking well south of the 70w 40n benchmark and intensifying
in maritime canada. That would amount to limited impacts for our
area. Whereas the ECMWF shows the storm tracking and intensifying
over CAPE cod, which would mean widespread rain and high winds wed
into thu. The biggest snow in this setup would be over interior new
england, though areas near the berkshires could get some snow. Model
blend shows widespread chance for rain with snow in western ma on
wed morning changing over to rain in the afternoon before drying out
overnight. Afternoon highs range from upper 30s in western ma to mid
40s to low 50s elsewhere.

Thursday...

Thursday looks to be mostly dry with a mix of Sun and clouds. Gusty
nw winds, however, keep high temperatures in the upper 30s and low
40s in western ma and mid to upper 40s elsewhere.

Aviation 23z Thursday through Tuesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

00z TAF update:
short term through Friday night ... Moderate to high confidence.

Rest of tonight...

bkn-ovcVFR clouds to predominate, much of which are mid-level;
short-lived brief exception through 03z being toward falmouth
and hyannis which may at times drop just below 3000'. Skies to
clear with lingeringVFR clouds towards the south coast, cape
and islands after 06z.

Friday...

vfr. Skies clearing on the CAPE islands. West-southwest winds
gusting 15-20 kt.

Friday night...

vfr. Winds shifting from SW to to the north and gusting 25-30
kt early.

Kbos taf... High confidence in taf. Gusty wind shift to northwest
early Friday evening, though confidence on timing the wind
shift is moderate.

Kbdl taf... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Saturday through Tuesday ...

Saturday:VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.

Saturday night:VFR. Breezy.

Sunday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.

Sunday night: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Windy with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance ra, slight chance fzra, slight
chance pl.

Monday: mainly MVFR, with areas ifr possible. Windy with local
gusts up to 30 kt. Chance ra, chance fzra.

Monday night: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Breezy.

Slight chance ra, slight chance fzra.

Tuesday: slight chance ra, slight chance fzra.

Marine
Short term through Friday night ... High confidence.

Tonight...

a few showers early towards the waters along southeast of the
outer cape, otherwise largely dry elsewhere. Winds have
increased a bit towards the southern coastal offshore waters,
with buzm3 showing gusts to 25 kts. Marginal lower-end sca
conditions look on pace with existing scas looking valid, with
winds 20-25 kts and seas in the 3-5 foot range.

Friday...

westerly winds pause in the morning, increase in the afternoon. Seas
also subside a little in the morning, then build in the afternoon.

Winds gusting near 25 kt, seas near 5 feet on the open waters.

Friday night...

cold front moves through early in the night. Winds turn out of the
north and increase as much colder air moves over southern new
england and the waters. Winds increasing to near 35 kt during the
overnight... Seas build to 5 to 9 feet on the exposed waters. We
have issued a gale watch for this period and continued into
Saturday.

Outlook Saturday through Tuesday ...

Saturday: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt.

Rough seas up to 11 ft.

Saturday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds
with gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.

Sunday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with local
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft.

Sunday night through Monday: strong winds with gusts up to
30 kt. Rough seas up to 17 ft. Chance of rain.

Monday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft. Slight chance of
rain.

Tuesday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of
rain.

Climate
Record low min temps for Thursday nov 14
boston 16 1905 ... This morning 23
hartford 15 1986 ... This morning 15 ... Tied
providence 16 1905 ... This morning 18
worcester 10 1986 ... This morning 15

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Gale watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
anz231>235-237-251.

Small craft advisory until 10 am est Friday for anz235-255-256.

Gale watch from late Friday night through Saturday afternoon
for anz250-254>256.

Small craft advisory until 3 am est Friday for anz250-254.

Synopsis... Wtb chai
near term... Wtb loconto
short term... Wtb
long term... Chai
aviation... Wtb loconto chai
marine... Wtb loconto chai
climate... Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44090 9 mi31 min 52°F1 ft
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 15 mi41 min 18 G 19 50°F 51°F40°F
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 15 mi76 min Calm 44°F 1027 hPa39°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 24 mi49 min 50°F 50°F1026.6 hPa
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 31 mi43 min S 5.1 G 7 48°F 45°F1027.1 hPa
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 35 mi71 min SSE 18 G 19 45°F 2 ft1026.9 hPa (-2.3)36°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 45 mi61 min SSW 19 G 21 50°F 1026.4 hPa (-1.6)
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 46 mi49 min 43°F 49°F1026.6 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 47 mi43 min SW 1.9 G 2.9 44°F 1026.4 hPa
FRXM3 47 mi49 min 43°F 35°F
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 48 mi131 min SSE 14 G 18 45°F 52°F2 ft1026.6 hPa (-2.0)38°F

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA2 mi65 minN 010.00 miOvercast37°F34°F89%1026.7 hPa
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA13 mi76 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy39°F35°F87%1026.7 hPa
Chatham, Chatham Municipal Airport, MA16 mi69 minS 7 G 1810.00 miOvercast47°F39°F77%1027.7 hPa
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA21 mi65 minSSE 710.00 miFair43°F39°F86%1027 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHYA

Wind History from HYA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW8NW64W3W5SW3W5CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW344SE8S6S75CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNW11
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2 days agoS4SE6S6S4S5S6S7SW7S11
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Tide / Current Tables for Barnstable Harbor, Beach Point, Massachusetts
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Barnstable Harbor
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:07 AM EST     9.56 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:24 AM EST     0.72 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:28 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:22 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 12:13 PM EST     10.61 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:21 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:04 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:55 PM EST     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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9.59.17.85.93.920.812.85.27.59.510.610.28.86.74.42.10.4-0.30.72.85.17.3

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:09 AM EST     -4.43 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:08 AM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:29 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:05 AM EST     4.19 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:23 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:22 AM EST     -0.10 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:26 PM EST     -4.58 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:23 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:27 PM EST     0.02 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:05 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:29 PM EST     4.39 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:58 PM EST     -0.19 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-3.9-4.4-4.2-3.2-1.22.83.84.243.21.8-2.4-3.8-4.5-4.5-3.7-2.12.33.74.34.33.82.8-0.5

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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.