DISCUSSION
Issued at 302 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024

High pressure, centered east of the region, will continue to slowly drift east over the next 24 to 48 hours. This will allow for at least 1 more dry day with humidity levels remaining at comfortable levels before higher dewpoints advect into the region in association with orphaned upper level energy over NE Oklahoma which ejects towards the region for the start of the upcoming week.

As noted by the previous shift, the somewhat drier conditions across the area combined with the ridging over the area may either prevent or limit the coverage of any showers/storms despite increasing instability. Will maintain low pops Sun afternoon/night for the time being, with likely pops maybe being warranted in SW areas Sunday afternoon where some CAMs suggest a bit better potential.
Better upper level energy arrives Monday into Tuesday from the NW with Atlantic energy retrograding back into the eastern US that could help or hurt convective chances. Likely pops exist mainly east both Monday and Tuesday afternoon, but confidence in this happening remains on the lower side with a lean towards Mon afternoon.

Sprawling upper level ridge takes hold across the SW US with 597 to 600 dm heights in place and our region once again on the edge of the ridge with chances for showers and storms existing through the remainder of the forecast. Greatest chances may come with stronger upper level energy from the north that the EC and GEM orphan over top of the area into the upcoming weekend. While 500 mb temps won't be very cold, the unstable atmosphere will bring mainly diurnal chances for showers and storms. Model blend accounting for this with every period having some sort of slgt chc or chc pop in it that is likely overdone, but warranted at this point in the forecast.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 630 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this forecast period. Mid/upper level ridging will build across the Great Lakes region today. A cut-off upper level disturbance across the Lower MS Valley will slowly lift northward late tonight into Sunday. A narrow zone of better low level moisture transport will shift north across far NE Illinois/NW Indiana tonight preceding this disturbance, but any precip chances through Sunday morning should be confined to extreme NW Indiana with a dry terminal forecast through 12Z Sunday. Sfc anticyclone drifting across the eastern Great Lakes will keep light southeast flow across terminals today into this evening.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.