NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

LMZ046 Michigan City In To New Buffalo Mi- 1020 Pm Est Wed Nov 29 2023
Overnight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Gusts up to 25 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet, then subsiding to 1 to 3 feet late in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east 10 knots or less. A chance of rain showers in the evening, then rain showers overnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday..East winds around 10 knots. Rain showers in the morning, then a chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
the water temperature at st. Joseph is 45 degrees and at michigan city is 45 degrees.

LMZ005
No data

FXUS63 KIWX 292354 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 654 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 219 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

Highs will be in the mid 40s to low 50s Thursday, before a cold front sweeps through late Thursday night into Friday bringing cooler temperatures and widespread rain chances. The weekend will be seasonable with additional rain showers. Scattered rain (and maybe snow) shower chances persist into early to mid next week.

SHORT TERM
(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 219 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

One more cold night is in store with lows in the mid 20s. With winds slightly elevated up to 10-15 mph early Thursday morning, wind chills will be in the upper teens. The cold is short lived as highs climb above average tomorrow. WAA and southwesterly winds will transport increased moisture and warmer temperatures northward from the Gulf. As a result, temperatures quickly warm throughout the morning and early afternoon, with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.

As an area of low pressure advances northeast out of Oklahoma, rain chances increase late Thursday night and especially into Friday morning. Following in the footsteps of the previous forecasters, the forecast continues to be tweaked to delay the onset of the most widespread rain. Between 00Z to 12Z Friday, rain should remain light and scattered, before increasing in coverage and becoming more widespread between 12-18Z Friday as the low approaches. Many of the short range models, particularly the HRRR and NAM, show this trend as well. Forcing is rather weak with the system, as convection develops along the WAA axis. QPF with this system should yield around half to three quarters of an inch by Saturday morning.

LONG TERM
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 219 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

Additional precipitation chances persist through the long term forecast range as a series of 500 mb shortwaves pass through the CWA. During the day Saturday, it will be dry. However, as the backside of the low moves through on Saturday afternoon, another wave of precipitation develops along a 500 mb shortwave that moves in from the southwest. We will see mostly rain late Saturday night into Sunday, as temperatures will be above freezing in the upper 30s, but some snowflakes could mix in at times. Some snow showers (perhaps lake effect in nature) will be possible as well Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 653 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

Quiet aviation weather this cycle, but conditions are expected to deteriorate just beyond this forecast valid period into Thursday night.

A split flow type pattern across western CONUS will yield a very progressive northern stream that will allow next broad upper trough to drive a cold front across southern Great Lakes Thursday night. Southwest flow will increase in advance of this cold front later tonight into Thursday, with southwest gusts of 20 to 25 knots once again late Thursday morning into mid afternoon Thursday.
Better low level moisture return will bypass the terminals to the northwest through late Thursday afternoon which will keep VFR conditions in place through 00Z Friday. It still appears as though a very narrow temporal window for marginal LLWS in the 12Z-16Z timeframe Thursday morning before better low level mixing occurs, and have maintained this mention with the 00Z TAFs. An axis of better moisture transport should begin to lift across west central IN by 00Z, with rain expected to overspread the terminals during the mid to late evening on Thursday.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 4 PM EST Thursday for LMZ043.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Northern Indiana, IN,