Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Michigan City city, IN

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Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN

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Fxus63 kiwx 201604 afdiwx area forecast discussion national weather service northern indiana 1204 pm edt Tue aug 20 2019 Synopsis Issued at 648 am edt Tue aug 20 2019 thunderstorms are expected to sweep across the area from midday into this evening. Strong gusty winds will likely accompany these storms, especially south of route 24. Highs will be from 85 to 90 today with heat indices in the 90s. An extended stretch of cooler and drier conditions are ahead Thursday through Saturday with highs in the 70s each day. Update Issued at 1154 am edt Tue aug 20 2019 minor changes made to forecast to increase to categorical pops in far west areas by 18z with decreasing trend thereafter. Large complex of storms holding it's own across N cntrl il. Greatest severe potential currently moving across cntrl il where 50 kt gust seen earlier at kspi. Some indications of more acceleration of the line portion heading towards kcmi. The worst still appears that it will bypass the forecast area. However, still watching well defined MCV that, combined with 2000-3000 j kg of MUCAPE ahead of it, is allowing for maintenance of line of showers and storms as it moves east. Large cirrus canopy well ahead of the line has slowed (but not stopped) diurnal heating. Majority of cams show the line decreasing in intensity shortly after arriving. Aircraft sounding out of mdw showed inversion likely keeping stronger wind fields aloft with lack of strong mixing limited by the cirrus. Severe threat is non-zero and will continue to be monitored the next several hours. Short term (today and tonight) issued at 313 am edt Tue aug 20 2019 weak leading shortwave moving across lake michigan early this morning could help spark a few showers across the northwest counties of the CWA generally along and north of i-80 towards daybreak. There is sufficient elevated instability for a few rumbles of thunder, but left thunder mention out due to low confidence of occurrence. Patchy fog is possible this morning, but will be much more patchy compared to previous mornings. Focus of the forecast remains on an MCS diving southeastwards from ia and it's impacts on the CWA over the course of the day. Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave rounding the northern periphery of a ridge of high pressure centered over the southern great plains. Surface obs show a surge of mid to upper 70s dewpoints from mo to the northwest into SE sd and a secondary lobe of higher dewpoints stretching from st. Louis, mo northeastwards to peoria, il. A stationary boundary is orientated from southern sd to northern mo before turning northeast to the great lakes. Satellite imagery and radar mosaics show the shortwave initiating convection over southeast sd and northern ia which should develop into the advertised MCS diving to the southeast in conjunction to the upper shortwave over the next couple of hours. Morning cams are in well agreement this MCS will be draped across southern ia around the 12z hour. From 12z through 18z, the MCS is anticipated to continue its southeastern drop along the stalled boundary as the upper shortwave continues rounding the ridge. Earlier model runs had the MCS quickly dropping across il and into the far southwestern counties by 15z, but models have trended slightly slower to have an arrival time closer to 18z. The longer the MCS is delayed would allow for greater warming and thus increase available instability for the MCS to work with. Mid-level lapse rate advection is anticipated to bring lapse rate of 7 to 7.5 c km into the western

half of the forecast area by the late morning. This would result in MLCAPE of 2000-2500 j kg while deep layer shear is forecast to remain generally at or below 20kt. As the MCS moves into the area it will be gradually losing upper support as the shortwave continues to dive south-southeast. There does remain a window for strong to severe storms across the far southwest portion of the cwa as the MCS gradually weakens with time. Outside of this window, isolated strong to marginally severe wind gusts could be possible through midday. Concern then turns towards the potential impact of a MCV which is forecast to develop on the northeastern periphery of the MCS as it moves into the cwa. The MCV would track generally along i-80 across northern in and into NW ohio during the afternoon and evening hours. The increased forcing provided by this MCV could combine with the existing instability for organized convection to develop across eastern in northwest ohio. All of the parameters would need to align for the risk of vigorous organized thunderstorms to develop, and current confidence is low on this occurring. The forecast is based on the MCV providing minor assistance for convective development, and keeps an isolated risk of strong to marginally severe storms capable of producing gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. Should the MCV prove to be stronger than anticipated then there would be a risk for severe weather across the eastern CWA this afternoon into evening. Mostly dry weather is expected after midnight within the modified post-mcs airmass. Long term (Wednesday through Monday) issued at 313 am edt Tue aug 20 2019 on Wednesday, weak shortwaves within the westerlies could help to initiate scattered showers and thunderstorms. The better chances for these storms looks to be primarily south of hwy 30 near any residual outflow boundaries from the previous day. Wednesday night into Thursday, a cold front is forecast to drop through the western great lakes. As this front will bring pleasant weather for the second half of the week. As the post-frontal high pressure builds over the western great lakes, daytime highs are forecast to reach into the 70s to lower 80s, and morning lows are forecast into the 50s to 60s. Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning) issued at 648 am edt Tue aug 20 2019 patchy ground fog had formed around the fwa terminal. Will continue to carry a short mention of MVFR fog until 13z. A strong upper level system was moving into western iowa early this morning and was racing east. Storms have just been developing with this system, and should become more numerous later today. Although the main brunt with this system is expected to be southwest of the terminals where surface theta E values will likely approach 370k, a secondary MCV is expected to track farther north and reach fwa by late afternoon. Kept mention of wind gusts to 45 knots at fwa. The system should move through by the evening leaving light winds overnight. Some lower clouds are possible very late in the period, but for now have kept them out. Iwx watches warnings advisories In... None. Mi... None. Oh... None. Lm... None. Update... Fisher synopsis... Steinwedel skipper cm short term... Cm long term... Cm aviation... Skipper visit us at

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN	1 mi	32 min	SSE 8 G 8.9	80°F				73°F
45170	5 mi	22 min	S 5.8 G 7.8	78°F	76°F	1 ft		74°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN	15 mi	42 min	S 4.1 G 7	79°F			1015.9 hPa
45026 - St. Joseph, MI	23 mi	22 min	S 3.9 G 5.8	78°F	76°F	1 ft	1015.3 hPa (+0.0)	73°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL	34 mi	52 min	SSW 4.1 G 5.1	78°F			1014.8 hPa	75°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI	34 mi	82 min	SSW 2.9 G 5.1	79°F			1016.3 hPa (+0.0)
JAKI2	36 mi	142 min	W 1 G 2.9	78°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL	39 mi	32 min	S 8.9 G 8.9	78°F				77°F
CNII2	39 mi	37 min	S 2.9 G 7	77°F				72°F
45177	40 mi	142 min			76°F
OKSI2	41 mi	142 min	Calm G 1	81°F
FSTI2	44 mi	142 min	S 8.9	78°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Michigan City Municipal Airport, IN	4 mi	67 min	SSE 4	10.00 mi	Fair	0°F	0°F	%	1016.3 hPa
Valparaiso Porter County Municipal Airport, IN	20 mi	86 min	S 7	10.00 mi	Fair	80°F	72°F	76%	1015.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVPZ

Wind History from VPZ (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map and Satellite Images

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GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (13,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN

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Disclaimer: The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.