Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Michigan City, IN

DISCUSSION
Issued at 231 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Weaker vort maxes helped along by the upper jet to the north forces a weak sfc low as it moves eastward today. Relatively weak moisture transport from the south is generally out of the southwest draped south of US-24 today. MUCAPE resides in the flow with the moisture and relative mild temperatures through the column allow for the chance for some embedded thunder especially where the better convergence resides, but given the weak flow, severe weather will be kept at a minimum. Could see some locally heavy rain this evening before the rain shuts off.

Tonight, the sfc low shifts eastward and, as it does so, an upper low deepens and stronger northwest winds come in on its backside for late tonight/Saturday morning. Despite the cooler air arriving, the excited winds are expected to keep fog at bay. Saturday AM lows will dip into the low 40s for highs as the marine airmass comes in off Lake MI. CAA is expected to continue on Saturday providing cooler temps in the 50s to low 60s south and east, away from Lake MI. High pressure follows on the backside of the developing upper low and this is expected to keep the weekend dry, but we'll be wattled with the relative cool temps. Some frost is possible on Sunday morning as temps dip into the mid 30s as high pressure moves through, winds go light to calm and minimal cloud cover exists to impede radiational cooling.

A warming trend from highs in the 50s on Saturday to highs in the 70s on Monday is helped along by the arrival of south winds on Sunday and southwest winds on Monday. A warm front pushes through Monday night setting up a cold front to push through Tuesday evening. Monday looks to be on the dry side, but will continue to feel more humid as dew points increase into the 50s and 60s by the end of the day. This sets up Tuesday to have dew points rise into the mid 60s out in front of the arriving front. As currently depicted, anything that might form out in front of the front would be forming in more boundary-parallel shear and may have a chance to train. This would be the main cause of heavy rain if it was going to be a hazard as storm motions appear to be quick and the mbE vectors appear unfavorable for back building. Should instability be able to form in front of the front and be unimpeded by cloud cover or the like, boundary-perpendicular shear exists closer to the front and may be able to get a few supercells to form. This would put all hazards on the table with damaging wind and hail being the primary threats, but a tornado cannot be ruled out. Of course, there's also the question of timing of the cold front and debris clouds left over from the warm front that could completely derail this severe chance.

The front ends up draped west to east across the area on Wednesday with a high pressure system to our north.
Showers/storms will be possible along or just south of the baroclinic zone, which has model confluence on location in the latest model runs. While a majority of the rain is forecast to stay south, cannot completely rule out rain across our 1 to 2 tiers of counties depending on eventual front position. Rain chances increase again towards the end of the week (probably just Thursday) as a coupled jet scenario allows a developing low to lift north out of the southern US. Friday into the weekend leans dry again as another vort max drops into the area from Canada.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 718 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

VFR to start will rapidly dwindle into widespread IFR as post cold frontal status blooms across the terminals this evening.
This will gradually erode/lift into Sat aftn. Otherwise quite gusty nwrly winds expected to develop this evening as low level cold advection ramps with gusts aoa 20kts.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for LMZ043-046.