Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Michigan City city, IN

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Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN

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FXUS63 KIWX 060603 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 203 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2020

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 202 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2020

Dry and cool tonight with lows in the mid 30s. Looking ahead, chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase Monday night, and then again late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Warmer conditions can be expected for Monday and Tuesday with afternoon highs warming into the mid 60s to lower 70s by Tuesday afternoon.

SHORT TERM. (This Evening through Monday Night) Issued at 304 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020

Ridge axis will continue to work east across the region tonight with mostly clear skies and light winds allowing for lows to drop into the mid 30s. Monday should remain mainly dry, but cloud cover increases, especially during the afternoon as moisture slowly increases as well. Will maintain low chc pops in far NW areas by late afternoon where isentropic lift will start to increase and CPD's start to nudge down to 20 mb. Warmer temps expected Monday afternoon with highs well into the 50s and maybe some 60s in a few spots.

Several signals continue to point towards a wet and maybe at times stormy Monday night as 295-300K isentropic lift increased with CPD's crashing across the area (not widespread but more than enough around). Steep low and especially mid level lapse rates still suggest by several models with PWATs around an inch all leading to maintenance of likely to cat pops. Will say that overall coverage of convection depicted by several models rather sparse with GFS and NMM showing greatest coverage and impacts. As has been mentioned past few forecasts, can't rule out some small hail given the elevated instability, especially if any more organized storms can form.

LONG TERM. (Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 304 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020

Any lingering showers/storms from overnight should be winding down in the morning with warm front will be working north through the area during the day Tuesday with warmer and more humid arriving. Most likely will be a lull in any precip late morning into the afternoon as capping sets up with arrival of aformentioned warm/humid air. After the morning forecast was issued SWODY3 placed the entire area in either marginal to slight risk of severe for Tuesday night as steep lapse rates continue along with advection of upper 50s to near 60 dewpoints (low to mid 60 dewpts if you buy the 12Z GFS) and pocket of cool air aloft. While several forcing mechanisms will be around, some concern on overall severe threat given time of day (00Z-06Z Weds) and challenge as to how much/how far north moisture makes it. Shear parameters would suggest at least strong to severe storms possible, but Hi res models vary considerably on overall setup (NAM would blow up best severe potential well south of the area). GFS most aggressive and robust on instability with well over 2000 J/KG of CAPE. Will have to see how everything unfolds in later forecasts with plenty of time to monitor. On the plus side if you want warmer temps, maybe our first decent shot at 70 for several locations.

Stronger northern stream wave will drop into the northern Great Lakes Weds ngt into Thursday, bringing yet another chance for showers along with colder air arriving in its wake with highs only in the 40s Thurs into Saturday, maybe back into the 50s Sunday. Keeping with persistence on dry forecast Fri into Sunday with EC the only model showing any precip at this point.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night) Issued at 202 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2020

Expect VFR to MVFR conditions through the TAF period. Still have the potential for BR to develop tonight given mostly clear skies and calm winds. However, dry air in place and a few areas of SCT/BKN high to mid level cloud cover may preclude this from happening. There are a few sites where BR (4-7SM visibilities) has developed, mainly in locations where dewpoint depressions are lower. Given low confidence left out of the TAF for now, but wouldn't be surprised to see a brief drop to MVFR visibilities for an hour or so at either site. Otherwise, a warm front will lift northeastward through the period, bringing increasing clouds and eventually chances for showers and thunderstorms. Feel pretty confident that we'll have -TSRA with MVFR ceilings after 3z at KSBN, so have included this in the TAF. A little less confident in thunderstorm potential before 6z at KFWA but think we'll definitely have some showers around. For now, have a PROB30 for -TSRA and MVFR ceilings.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IN . NONE. MI . NONE. OH . NONE. LM . NONE.

SYNOPSIS . Marsili SHORT TERM . Fisher LONG TERM . Fisher AVIATION . MCD

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
45026 - St. Joseph, MI	23 mi	25 min	NW 5.8 G 7.8	39°F	40°F	1 ft	1022.1 hPa	34°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL	34 mi	47 min	NNE 4.1 G 5.1	37°F			1020.6 hPa	36°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL	39 mi	45 min	NNE 5.1 G 5.1	38°F				38°F
CNII2	39 mi	20 min	NNE 5.1 G 7	37°F				34°F
OKSI2	41 mi	125 min	E 1.9 G 2.9	40°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Michigan City Municipal Airport, IN	4 mi	70 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Fair	32°F	32°F	100%	1021.3 hPa
Valparaiso Porter County Municipal Airport, IN	20 mi	69 min	ENE 3	10.00 mi	Fair	34°F	28°F	82%	1021.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVPZ

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (2,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN

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