Tuesday, August20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Michigan City, IN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 7:42PM Tuesday August 20, 2019 12:22 PM CDT (17:22 UTC) Moonrise 10:24PMMoonset 10:42AM Illumination 74% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ046 Michigan City In To New Buffalo Mi- 1026 Am Edt Tue Aug 20 2019
Rest of today..South wind 5 to 10 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms through midnight. Waves around 1 foot.
Wednesday..West wind 10 to 15 knots veering north in the afternoon. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..North wind 5 to 10 knots veering northeast after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. The water temperature off michigan city is 75 degrees...and 74 degrees off st. Joseph.
LMZ046 Expires:201908202215;;518762 FZUS53 KIWX 201426 NSHIWX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Indiana National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1026 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ046-202215-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Michigan City city, IN
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 41.72, -86.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kiwx 201604
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1204 pm edt Tue aug 20 2019

Synopsis
Issued at 648 am edt Tue aug 20 2019
thunderstorms are expected to sweep across the area from midday
into this evening. Strong gusty winds will likely accompany these
storms, especially south of route 24. Highs will be from 85 to 90
today with heat indices in the 90s. An extended stretch of cooler
and drier conditions are ahead Thursday through Saturday with
highs in the 70s each day.

Update
Issued at 1154 am edt Tue aug 20 2019
minor changes made to forecast to increase to categorical pops in
far west areas by 18z with decreasing trend thereafter.

Large complex of storms holding it's own across N cntrl il.

Greatest severe potential currently moving across cntrl il where
50 kt gust seen earlier at kspi. Some indications of more
acceleration of the line portion heading towards kcmi. The worst
still appears that it will bypass the forecast area. However,
still watching well defined MCV that, combined with 2000-3000 j kg
of MUCAPE ahead of it, is allowing for maintenance of line of
showers and storms as it moves east. Large cirrus canopy well
ahead of the line has slowed (but not stopped) diurnal heating.

Majority of cams show the line decreasing in intensity shortly
after arriving. Aircraft sounding out of mdw showed inversion
likely keeping stronger wind fields aloft with lack of strong
mixing limited by the cirrus. Severe threat is non-zero and will
continue to be monitored the next several hours.

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 313 am edt Tue aug 20 2019
weak leading shortwave moving across lake michigan early this
morning could help spark a few showers across the northwest
counties of the CWA generally along and north of i-80 towards
daybreak. There is sufficient elevated instability for a few
rumbles of thunder, but left thunder mention out due to low
confidence of occurrence. Patchy fog is possible this morning,
but will be much more patchy compared to previous mornings.

Focus of the forecast remains on an MCS diving southeastwards from
ia and it's impacts on the CWA over the course of the day. Water
vapor imagery shows a shortwave rounding the northern periphery of
a ridge of high pressure centered over the southern great plains.

Surface obs show a surge of mid to upper 70s dewpoints from mo to
the northwest into SE sd and a secondary lobe of higher dewpoints
stretching from st. Louis, mo northeastwards to peoria, il. A
stationary boundary is orientated from southern sd to northern mo
before turning northeast to the great lakes. Satellite imagery
and radar mosaics show the shortwave initiating convection over
southeast sd and northern ia which should develop into the
advertised MCS diving to the southeast in conjunction to the upper
shortwave over the next couple of hours. Morning cams are in well
agreement this MCS will be draped across southern ia around the
12z hour.

From 12z through 18z, the MCS is anticipated to continue its
southeastern drop along the stalled boundary as the upper
shortwave continues rounding the ridge. Earlier model runs had
the MCS quickly dropping across il and into the far southwestern
counties by 15z, but models have trended slightly slower to have
an arrival time closer to 18z. The longer the MCS is delayed would
allow for greater warming and thus increase available instability
for the MCS to work with. Mid-level lapse rate advection is
anticipated to bring lapse rate of 7 to 7.5 c km into the western
half of the forecast area by the late morning. This would result
in MLCAPE of 2000-2500 j kg while deep layer shear is forecast to
remain generally at or below 20kt. As the MCS moves into the area
it will be gradually losing upper support as the shortwave
continues to dive south-southeast. There does remain a window for
strong to severe storms across the far southwest portion of the
cwa as the MCS gradually weakens with time. Outside of this
window, isolated strong to marginally severe wind gusts could be
possible through midday.

Concern then turns towards the potential impact of a MCV which is
forecast to develop on the northeastern periphery of the MCS as
it moves into the cwa. The MCV would track generally along i-80
across northern in and into NW ohio during the afternoon and
evening hours. The increased forcing provided by this MCV could
combine with the existing instability for organized convection to
develop across eastern in northwest ohio. All of the parameters
would need to align for the risk of vigorous organized
thunderstorms to develop, and current confidence is low on this
occurring. The forecast is based on the MCV providing minor
assistance for convective development, and keeps an isolated risk
of strong to marginally severe storms capable of producing gusty
winds and locally heavy rainfall. Should the MCV prove to be
stronger than anticipated then there would be a risk for severe
weather across the eastern CWA this afternoon into evening.

Mostly dry weather is expected after midnight within the modified
post-mcs airmass.

Long term (Wednesday through Monday)
issued at 313 am edt Tue aug 20 2019
on Wednesday, weak shortwaves within the westerlies could help to
initiate scattered showers and thunderstorms. The better chances for
these storms looks to be primarily south of hwy 30 near any residual
outflow boundaries from the previous day. Wednesday night into
Thursday, a cold front is forecast to drop through the western great
lakes. As this front will bring pleasant weather for the second half
of the week. As the post-frontal high pressure builds over the
western great lakes, daytime highs are forecast to reach into the
70s to lower 80s, and morning lows are forecast into the 50s to
60s.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 648 am edt Tue aug 20 2019
patchy ground fog had formed around the fwa terminal. Will
continue to carry a short mention of MVFR fog until 13z. A strong
upper level system was moving into western iowa early this
morning and was racing east. Storms have just been developing
with this system, and should become more numerous later today.

Although the main brunt with this system is expected to be
southwest of the terminals where surface theta E values will
likely approach 370k, a secondary MCV is expected to track farther
north and reach fwa by late afternoon. Kept mention of wind gusts
to 45 knots at fwa. The system should move through by the evening
leaving light winds overnight. Some lower clouds are possible very
late in the period, but for now have kept them out.

Iwx watches warnings advisories
In... None.

Mi... None.

Oh... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Fisher
synopsis... Steinwedel skipper cm
short term... Cm
long term... Cm
aviation... Skipper
visit us at

Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 1 mi32 min SSE 8 G 8.9 80°F 73°F
45170 5 mi22 min S 5.8 G 7.8 78°F 76°F1 ft74°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 15 mi42 min S 4.1 G 7 79°F 1015.9 hPa
45026 - St. Joseph, MI 23 mi22 min S 3.9 G 5.8 78°F 76°F1 ft1015.3 hPa (+0.0)73°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 34 mi52 min SSW 4.1 G 5.1 78°F 1014.8 hPa75°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 34 mi82 min SSW 2.9 G 5.1 79°F 1016.3 hPa (+0.0)
JAKI2 36 mi142 min W 1 G 2.9 78°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 39 mi32 min S 8.9 G 8.9 78°F 77°F
CNII2 39 mi37 min S 2.9 G 7 77°F 72°F
45177 40 mi142 min 76°F
OKSI2 41 mi142 min Calm G 1 81°F
FSTI2 44 mi142 min S 8.9 78°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
Last
24hr
NE8
NE8
NE6
NE6
NE6
G9
NE5
NE5
NE4
N2
N3
N2
--
N2
SW2
S2
S3
S2
S4
S6
S4
SW4
SW5
S5
SW2
1 day
ago
S7
G11
SE13
G19
SW6
G17
SW2
G9
SW5
G8
SW5
G13
SW4
G11
SW6
G10
SW3
G6
SW4
G7
SW3
S3
S1
SW1
S1
SW2
SW2
SW2
G5
SW2
SW1
SW1
NE4
NE4
NE7
2 days
ago
S6
G9
NE6
E9
S7
SE4
G7
SW8
G11
SW7
G10
S4
G8
S6
G10
SW4
S4
S4
SW2
S4
SE3
S3
S1
SE2
S7
G10
S9
S8
W4
G10
--
N3
G7

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Michigan City Municipal Airport, IN4 mi67 minSSE 410.00 miFair0°F0°F%1016.3 hPa
Valparaiso Porter County Municipal Airport, IN20 mi86 minS 710.00 miFair80°F72°F76%1015.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVPZ

Wind History from VPZ (wind in knots)
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
Last 24hrSW5S7----S7SE4CalmSE3SE3SE5S3S4S3CalmCalmNE3CalmE3CalmS3SW5SW7S7S5
1 day agoS7S13S11W8W9W8W6W6W4W3CalmCalmSW4CalmE3CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4
2 days ago------SW6--S7SW8SW6S3S3--CalmCalmNE3SE4E3E4S5S6NW13
G21
SE6CalmN4SE5

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (13,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.