Sunrise 5:51 AM   Sunset 7:40 PM Moonrise 8:46 PM   Moonset 6:00 AM

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LMZ046 Expires:202404250215;;308623 Fzus53 Kiwx 241954 Nshiwx
nearshore marine forecast national weather service northern indiana 354 pm edt Wed apr 24 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan
lmz043-046-250215- new buffalo mi to st joseph mi-michigan city in to new buffalo mi- 354 pm edt Wed apr 24 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 pm edt this evening - .
Tonight - North winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Mostly clear. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet. Thursday - Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming north. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Thursday night - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Mostly clear. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - Southeast winds 10 to 20 knots increasing to 15 to 25 knots. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
the water temperature at st. Joseph and at michigan city is 50 degrees.

LMZ005
No data

FXUS63 KIWX 242339 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 739 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

KEY MESSAGES

-Period of near/below freezing temperatures expected early Thursday morning.

-Turning much warmer through the remainder of the period.

-A few chances for showers and thunderstorms return by Friday night and linger into Monday.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 230 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Initial focus remains on threat for frost development and risk for a period of freezing temperatures. Clouds have stuck around much of the day as anticipated, with the back edge of the stratus working south across Lower Michigan. While models seem to agree on this back edge working into the area this evening, the overall flow begins to weaken with an area of higher 850 mb RH lingering in parts of the area through 6Z and possible stalling over the southern areas overnight.

Temperatures will rebound nicely Thursday after the frosty start as high pressure builds across the area with plenty of sunshine and light winds allowing for highs well into the 50s (few 60s west).
Lows Thursday night could dip into the mid 30s in NE areas that could warrant a Frost Advisory, but will leave that for later forecasts.

Remainder of the forecast will focus on 2 upper lows that eject from the southwestern states northeast in to the Plains, never quite reaching the region. The upper level pattern will help us warm dramatically with an increase in low level moisture as well, but still leaves some bigger questions as to timing, coverage and intensity of a few rounds of precipitation. Pronounced 850 mb theta e nose screams northeast across the area Friday, but low levels will remain rather dry and best forcing/instability likely to remain well west of the region closer to the upper level dynamics. Models are about split on band of rain on the warm front Fri night vs either confining to far NW areas or everything dissipating through the evening. Will maintain higher pops, but feel they most likely will need lowering as we get closer to the event.

2nd wave will progress a touch further east but still remain well removed from the area. A cold front will push east in the Sunday night to Monday time frame for a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Risk for heavy rain and severe weather remains questionable at this stage with best threat likely to persist west of the area.

Temps will cool somewhat behind the front to end the period, but with no strong push of cold air as any northern stream energy remains well north into Canada above normal conditions will persist.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 735 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

MVFR to VFR conditions expected at the TAF sites. The MVFR cloud deck sprawled over northern/central IN and OH this evening is rapidly eroding from north to south, and will continue to do so through late evening. Have a tempo to account for this (1z at KSBN, 3z at KFWA). Winds become light and variable overnight, with KSBN possibly seeing some BR development after midnight.
Opted to leave this out for now given lower confidence with dry air advecting in, but it's something to monitor for in the next issuance. Otherwise, winds Thursday will be light out of the east under mostly sunny skies.



IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for INZ005>009- 018-027.
Frost Advisory from 1 AM EDT /midnight CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ Thursday for INZ012>015-017-020-022>026-032>034-103- 104-116-203-204-216.
OH...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for OHZ001-002- 004-005-015-016-024-025.
MI...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for MIZ078>081.
Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043- 046.

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