Monday, September20, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kelleys Island, OH

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 7:32PM Monday September 20, 2021 1:10 AM EDT (05:10 UTC) Moonrise 6:49PMMoonset 5:37AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ164 The Islands To Vermilion Oh Beyond 5 Nm Off Shoreline To Us- Canadian Border- Vermilion To Avon Point Oh Beyond 5 Nm Off Shoreline To Us- Canadian Border- Avon Point To Willowick Oh Beyond 5 Nm Off Shoreline To Us- Canadian Border-willowick To Geneva-on-the- Lake Oh Beyond 5nm Off Shoreline To Us-canadian Border- 959 Pm Edt Sun Sep 19 2021
Overnight..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. A slight chance of showers late. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 15 to 25 knots. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 foot or less building to 3 to 5 feet.
Tuesday..South winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Tuesday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 15 to 25 knots. Showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. A chance of showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet.
Friday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ164 Expires:202109200815;;881977 FZUS61 KCLE 200159 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 959 PM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS... A ridge averaging 30.10 inches will remain over the eastern Great Lakes region through Monday. A warm front will cross the lake on Monday. Low pressure 29.50 inches will move through northern Ontario on Monday night into Tuesday and extend a cold front across the Great Lakes region on Tuesday. This front will stall across Lake Erie on Tuesday evening. Meanwhile, low pressure 30.00 inches will develop over the Tennessee River Valley and move northeast along the front on Wednesday, deepening to 29.60 inches over the upper Ohio Valley and lingering through at least Thursday. LEZ164>167-200815-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kelleys Island, OH
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location: 41.74, -82.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 200506 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 106 AM EDT Mon Sep 20 2021

SYNOPSIS. Ridge of high pressure over the region will continue to move east through early Monday. A warm front then moves northeastward across the region Monday night. A strong cold front ushers in a significantly cooler airmass late Tuesday night, and could stall overhead into Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. Only minor changes with this update to reflect temperature and dewpoint trends. Otherwise, high clouds continue to expand north and east across the area this morning west of the ridge axis. Showers and thunderstorms continue to advance north through western Ohio and Indiana at this time. As per previous forecast, will continue to keep threat for showers and storms just west of the local area later this morning with minimal chances advancing east into the western quarter of the forecast area after sunrise.

Previous Discussion . Mid/upper level trough oriented west to east will move south to north tonight and Monday. Expecting marked increases in cloud cover with the approach of this system, and POPs on the increase in response to the f-gen in the region. The better forcing will be further west of the CWA where the PVA is strongest, so the early onset of the POPs will be tailored for the far western zones of the CWA Monday. Vertical profiles will become a little bit more supportive of thunderstorm activity with modest CAPE forming in the afternoon hours. Meanwhile, at the surface, high pressure moves off the New England coast, and a strong cold front will be making its way through the central plains. Pressure gradient will be tightening, and will see noticeable increases in winds Monday into Monday night. Some warm air advection expected in the southerly flow, more apparent over the eastern zones. The western zones may end up slightly cooler due to increased cloud cover/precipitation.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. An active short term period is anticipated as a deep upper-level trough approaches from the west and a strong surface cold front slides east and stalls across the forecast area. Expect scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms to develop ahead of the front after around 12Z Tuesday. Deep return flow will funnel quite a bit of moisture into the region and forecast soundings indicate a saturated atmosphere with tall, skinny CAPE profiles with precipitable water values of up to 1.75 inches (well above normal for this time of year). As a result, locally heavy rain will be possible and the western half of our area is outlined in a WPC Day 3 Slight Risk for excessive rainfall. Although this part of our forecast area has been dry with precip deficits over the last few weeks, heavy rain rates may lead to localized flooding on Tuesday.

The trough will continue to deepen as it moves into the Ohio Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday and will likely close into an upper- level low with a surface low likely developing over or within the vicinity of our forecast area and deepening by Wednesday night. This will lead to an additional round of moderate to heavy rain Wednesday, this time with stratiform moderate to heavy rain rather than convective showers. Will need to continue to monitor the potential for flooding. The deepening surface low will likely lead to breezy winds Wednesday night, with gusts of 30 to 35 mph possible along the lakeshore.

Tuesday will feature one last day of warm temperatures, with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Overnight lows will fall into the mid 50s to lower 60s Tuesday and will only recover to the low to mid 60s on Wednesday. Wednesday night's lows should fall into the notably cooler upper 40s to lower 50s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. The low should continue to influence the area through Thursday, with scattered showers continuing before the low lifts northeast into Ontario by Friday morning. A reinforcing trough/cold front will slide across the area Friday night, providing an additional chance of showers across the area. Thursday will likely feature the coolest temps of the season thus far, with highs lingering in the lower 60s and lows dropping into the mid to upper 50s. Temperatures recover slightly Friday through the weekend and highs increase into the mid 60s to around 70 degrees. Overnight lows should be in the upper 40s to lower 50s each night.

AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/. A plume of moisture will continue to stream north into the western half of the area along with some showers and thunderstorms into extreme western Ohio. This activity is in response to a warm front lifting north across the area. This will result in some widely scattered showers over the extreme west at Toledo and Findlay but with upper level ridge axis holding tight for another day, expecting dry weather across the rest of the forecast area. Overall, cloud cover will be gradually lowering with time through tonight. Winds should stay around 10 knots from a southerly direction through the period but increase at Erie to 15 to 25 knots by the end of the forecast period.

Outlook . Non-VFR possible in scattered to numerous showers/ thunderstorms Monday night through Thursday.

MARINE. Easterly to northeasterly winds of 10 to 15 knots continue through this evening before shifting to the southeast on Monday morning. This flow will persist through Monday afternoon, but winds over the lake will increase to around 20 knots Monday night into Tuesday morning as the pressure gradient tightens with an approaching cold front. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed during this time. Southerly winds briefly relax by Tuesday evening, but will sharply shift to the northwest with the passage of the cold front early Wednesday morning. Expect northerly winds to increase to 20 to 25 knots in the western and central basins as a surface low begins to take shape over the region by Wednesday afternoon, which will prompt a Small Craft Advisory. Wouldn't be surprised if winds trended higher towards 30 knots depending on the location of the low and the pressure gradient. Winds become southeasterly but linger at around 15 to 20 knots early Friday.

Can't rule out waterspouts with the frontal passage Tuesday night into Wednesday, but breezy surface winds may inhibit any development.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . 26/MM NEAR TERM . Lombardy/26 SHORT TERM . Maines LONG TERM . Maines AVIATION . Lombardy MARINE . Maines


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45005 - W ERIE 28NM Northwest of Cleveland, OH 6 mi30 min SE 12 G 16 74°F 73°F1019.4 hPa60°F
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 19 mi52 min ESE 6 G 11 73°F 74°F1018.6 hPa57°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 21 mi70 min ESE 15 G 16 74°F 1019.3 hPa (+0.0)
LORO1 23 mi40 min SSE 12 G 15 72°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 24 mi70 min SE 7 G 9.9 73°F 1018.6 hPa
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 25 mi85 min E 2.9 1020 hPa
CMPO1 32 mi100 min ESE 8 G 11 73°F
45196 35 mi40 min ESE 9.7 G 14 74°F 73°F2 ft1019.9 hPa60°F
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 39 mi70 min E 14 G 15 73°F
45164 41 mi70 min 12 G 18 73°F 73°F2 ft
45165 42 mi30 min E 9.7 G 14 74°F 73°F2 ft
TWCO1 42 mi30 min ESE 14 G 17 73°F
45197 46 mi40 min SW 9.7 G 14 74°F 73°F2 ft1020.4 hPa60°F
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 46 mi52 min Calm G 2.9 73°F 72°F1020.6 hPa48°F
45147 - Lake St Clair 49 mi70 min E 9.7 G 14 69°F 70°F1 ft1019.8 hPa (-0.1)

Wind History for Marblehead, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lorain / Elyria, Lorain County Regional Airport, OH31 mi17 minS 510.00 miFair66°F55°F68%1020.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLPR

Wind History from LPR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3E443E4NE3NE8E5NE7NE5NE5E5E5E5SE4SE5S5
1 day agoSW5W3W3SW3N3CalmCalmNE7NE6NE6NE6N5N6NE8N7NE7NE9NE5NE3NE4NE3NE4CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmS3SW3CalmS4S5SW44W3CalmNW6NE6N5NE6NE4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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