Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kelleys Island, OH

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Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 132339 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH Issued by National Weather Service Buffalo NY 739 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will begin to move northeastward into Canada tonight through tomorrow. A cold front will move through the area Sunday evening. Behind the front, another large area of high pressure will build in across the region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. Early this evening radar shows scattered showers across southeastern Ohio, with these likely the result of diurnal heating. Mesoscale guidance suggests the remnants of these showers will drift northeast toward Youngstown/Akron before dissipating around midnight. A stray shower cannot be ruled out south/east of these cities while the rest of the area should remain dry overnight. Low temperatures will generally be in the upper 60s to around 70.

Friday will start off dry, with patchy mid/high level cloud cover. By Friday afternoon, lingering low and mid-level moisture across the central and western portion of the area will become amplified from a developing surface low across the Tennessee Valley and aided by daytime heating. Forecast instability is expected to reach 1000 to 1500 J/kg, mainly across NW OH, though much of the activity appears to form just west of Toledo. Highs on Friday will once again reach the mid to upper 80s with dew points in the mid to upper 60s.

Will be continuing to monitor development and movement of the surface low across the Tennessee Valley to see if there are any shower/thunderstorm impacts overnight Friday into early Saturday morning. Too much divergence in model guidance precludes any higher PoP than low-end chance at this time.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/. Upper level trough will shift east across the area Saturday with an associated area of positive vorticity advection. Moisture associated with this upper level feature is expected to move east across the area as well by Saturday evening. A weak wave of low pressure at the surface will move east across the Ohio Valley with an inverted surface trough extending north across the local area Saturday night. Due to the upper level support and wave of low pressure along with the aid of day time heating, expecting showers and a few thunderstorms to develop Saturday and then lingering into Saturday night. A cold front is expected to move east across the area Sunday afternoon with a bit of a surge of moisture associated with the front and convergence along the boundary. This should bring a line of showers and thunderstorms east across the local area during the afternoon. Once front shifts east Sunday night, threat for showers and thunderstorms will diminish Sunday night into Monday morning. Then, by Monday afternoon, a surface trough and deep digging negatively tilted upper level trough will move over the local area. Cold air advection and upper level support will likely cause some lake induced showers over the northeast. Temperatures through the period will be in the middle to upper 70s most areas; except lower 80s extreme west Saturday. Lows Saturday night will be in the lower to middle 60s and highs Sunday in the middle to upper 70s east and upper 70s to lower 80s elsewhere. Lows Sunday night will be in the lower to middle 60s followed by highs in the middle to upper 70s Monday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Large upper level trough will shift east of the area Monday night into Tuesday. Another upper level positively tilted trough will linger behind into Wednesday as an upper level high pressure over the Plains States continues to amplify and remain nearly stationary. This whole upper level pattern remains somewhat unchanged through Thursday but there are some signs the trough in thee east will make an attempt to break down slightly over southern Canada and cut-off the trough by the end of the week. Weak surface high pressure will build southeast over the eastern Great Lakes during this forecast period and will for the most part keep the forecast area dry. Temperatures will be in the middle to upper 50s each night and highs will be in the middle to upper 70s Tuesday and Wednesday and warming a bit for Thursday in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/. Mainly VFR flight conditions for the 00Z TAF cycle. Small risk for some radiation fog tonight, mainly at KFDY/KMFD. Otherwise, the majority of clouds will be mid/high level. Moderate E-NE flow will diminish this evening.

Outlook . Non-VFR with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday night through Sunday night.

MARINE. A small craft advisory was issued this afternoon as winds along the lakeshore increased to 10 to 20 knots with some higher gusts. The northeast flow along the lakeshore can cause increased wave action along the lakeshore due to the shoreline effects. Waves of 4 to 5 feet expected through the afternoon into the evening hours. Winds should begin to shift around to an easterly direction later tonight as they diminish. This should push the higher waves offshore. Also issued a beach hazards statement for the threat for rip currents along the lakeshore. There is another potential for the need for small craft advisories again during the day tomorrow and tomorrow night in the northeast to east flow. Otherwise, light southeast flow develops into the weekend. A cold front is expected to move east across the area Sunday afternoon and this will result in some cold air advection to the area. There is the possibility for some waterspout activity Monday with the cold air advection. Winds will diminish and become light north to northwest by Thursday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . Beach Hazards Statement until 4 AM EDT Friday for OHZ009>012- 089. PA . Beach Hazards Statement until 4 AM EDT Friday for PAZ001. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for LEZ144>149.



SYNOPSIS . Kahn NEAR TERM . Apffel/Kahn SHORT TERM . Lombardy LONG TERM . Lombardy AVIATION . Apffel/Kahn MARINE . Lombardy

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
45005 - W ERIE 28NM Northwest of Cleveland, OH	6 mi	30 min	NE 14 G 16	77°F	76°F		1017 hPa	69°F
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH	19 mi	62 min		78°F	76°F
LORO1	23 mi	80 min	ENE 16 G 19	79°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH	24 mi	50 min	ENE 13 G 15	78°F			1016.3 hPa (+0.4)
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH	25 mi	65 min	NE 5.1	77°F			1017 hPa	68°F
CMPO1	32 mi	80 min	ENE 9.9	79°F
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH	39 mi	170 min	ENE 13 G 15	80°F
45164	41 mi	50 min			77°F	3 ft
45165	42 mi	30 min	NE 12 G 16	80°F	78°F	2 ft		62°F
TWCO1	42 mi	30 min	NE 17 G 20	80°F	78°F			64°F
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH	46 mi	62 min		78°F	74°F
45147 - Lake St Clair	49 mi	50 min	NE 3.9 G 3.9		77°F	1 ft	1016.7 hPa (+0.6)

Wind History for Marblehead, OH

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Lorain / Elyria, Lorain County Regional Airport, OH	31 mi	57 min	ENE 7	10.00 mi	Fair	77°F	59°F	54%	1016.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLPR

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (21,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH

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