Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kelleys Island, OH

KEY MESSAGES
1) Several rounds of showers are expected through Sunday with a series of fronts moving through the region. Rainfall amounts will be less than one inch with no flooding impacts expected.

2) Below normal temperatures are expected early next week with frost chances on Sunday night and Monday night.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
An unsettled weather pattern is shaping up for this weekend with several fronts moving through, bringing intermittent rain chances. For today, some showers are moving through the area this morning ahead of a warm front. These will largely fizzle out as they enter a relatively dry air mass. The warm front will move through later today and with the isentropic lift behind the front, some more widespread showers will develop late this afternoon through tonight. Coverage will be highest in the southern portion of the forecast area, but most of the area should see at least a little bit of rain. For Saturday, expecting a dry start to the day with good mixing in the warm sector. Temperatures will rise well into the 60s and there should be some 70s to allow for a brief window of a few nice hours during the day on Saturday. However, that will likely be short-lived for most as a shortwave will round the broader upper trough moving through the region. This will support the first cold front through the region which will bring some shower activity across the area and have a mix of high chance to categorical PoPs. Some scattered shower activity will persist on Saturday night, although coverage will be much less than earlier in the day. For Sunday, another lobe of the upper trough will enter and support a stronger cold front through the region. This will initiate some more scattered showers before high pressure enters from the northwest on Sunday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Behind the pair of cold fronts this weekend, temperatures will return to below normal early next week, feeling more like early- to-mid April. Low temperatures on Sunday night and Monday night will be in the 30s and 40s. With a dry and clearing air mass, there will be the potential for frost on Sunday and Monday nights, mainly where temperatures can get into the low-to-mid 30s. High temperatures will be in the 50s on Monday. Some locations may try to reach the lower 60s by Tuesday.

AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/
W'erly flow aloft, embedded disturbances, and net surface troughing affect our region through 06Z/Sat. Our regional surface winds will vary between S'erly and W'erly around 5 to 15 knots. VFR are expected for the time being as variable amounts of low/mid/upper-level cloudiness accompany the aforementioned disturbances. Scattered and mainly light rain showers ahead of the axis of one disturbance will traverse our region generally from west to east through ~13Z/Fri.

Between ~16Z/Fri and ~06Z/Sat, widespread light to moderate rain should overspread our region generally from the west-southwest in advance of the axis of a stronger shortwave disturbance aloft. Widespread ceilings mainly in the 2kft to 5kft AGL range should accompany this rain, but occasional IFR ceilings are possible. Visibility should vary between VFR and MVFR in this rain and periodic mist. Note: isolated thunderstorms are possible Fri afternoon into early evening, but confidence in storms impacting any TAF site is low.

Outlook...Periods of rain with non-VFR are expected this weekend and during the PM hours of this Tuesday. Scattered thunderstorms are possible this Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

MARINE
Primarily S'erly to W'erly winds around 5 to 15 knots are expected on Lake Erie through Saturday afternoon as the axes of subtle troughs advance E'ward across the lake. These winds may flirt with 20 knots at time Saturday afternoon. During Saturday evening through Saturday night, a cold front should sweep SE'ward across Lake Erie and cause SW'erly winds around 5 to 15 knots to veer toward NW'erly. However, these winds may flirt with 20 knots at times Saturday evening. Waves should trend 3 feet or less, but occasional 4 footers are possible Saturday afternoon through evening. Behind the cold front, a ridge should affect Lake Erie as the embedded high pressure center moves from the Canadian Prairies toward Atlantic waters near NC on Sunday through Tuesday. Primarily NW'erly to N'erly winds around 5 to 15 knots on Sunday through Monday should become variable in direction Monday night through Tuesday. Waves should trend 3 feet or less.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.