Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Long Beach, IN

DISCUSSION
Issued at 350 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

A sheared upper level wave from the Lower MS Valley will continue to depart to the east this morning, allowing axis of higher PWATS to sink southeast of the local area. Clouds and any lingering scattered rain showers across the far southeast should diminish through the mid to late morning hours.
Otherwise, for the near term, the combination of yesterday's rainfall, light winds, and partial clearing has led to fog formation, particularly across southwest locations which received more rainfall yesterday, and where crossover temps are running higher. A Dense Fog Advisory was issued earlier this morning for White/Cass/Fulton/Pulaski IN counties. Satellite imagery/sfc obs do suggest some of this dense fog may be trying to shift eastward into southwest portions of Kosciusko County this morning, with additional patches of dense fog in sfc obs across far NW IN/SW Lower MI where radiational cooling has been optimized. May pad the Dense Fog Advisory with an SPS shortly, but a small areal extension of the Dense Fog advisory may be needed over the next hour or two.

For the rest of the day, drier low level air should persist across the bulk of the area with mid/upper level low amplitude ridge building back across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into tonight.
Broad subsidence regime, good deal of sun today, and moderation of weak low level thermal trough should support above normal highs today in the mid to upper 80s. Low level flow will also be very weak today under the influence of a broad sfc anticyclone. A lake breeze is expected to develop under this weak flow regime but unseasonably warm southeast Lake Michigan waters may temper lake breeze penetration/strength.

For Monday night through Tuesday night, attention will turn to the gradual northeast advance of another vort max in the weak mid/upper level steering flow across the Lower MS Valley. This vort max should tend to shear as it begins to encounter slightly stronger westerlies across the Great Lakes. Shearing nature of this feature would appear to take best low level moisture transport from the Ohio River Valley into west central Ohio by late Tuesday night/early Wednesday. Weak low level southwesterlies associated with this feature will allow the low level theta-e gradient displaced just south of the local area to return back north resulting in increased humidity, particularly by late Tuesday into Wednesday. Precip chances on Wednesday may be maximized across NE IN/NW Ohio early in the day as this vort max lifts northeast. Did consider some downward adjustment to afternoon PoPs Wednesday given what could be a lull in forcing between departing sheared vort max, and the onset of a more active series of eastern Pacific waves later Wednesday into Thursday. Guidance consensus at this time would suggest best chance for more organized convection late Wednesday into Thursday as the upper ridge is temporarily suppressed allowing stronger frontal forcing to drop into the southern Great Lakes by this time. There should be plenty of moisture availability in this synoptic setup so have maintained the ramp up to higher PoPs again by Thursday PM.

Heat indices will likely reach the mid to possibly upper 90s on Wednesday, but could be limited by greater cloud cover/precip chances, particularly east of I-69. Confidence in heat index forecast decreases post-Wednesday due to potential increased convective activity. Any associated frontal passages do not appear to have much opportunity for much southward progress in this pattern given low amplitude nature. This may place the local area in a favored instability gradient zone for additional periodic convective clusters for the weekend into early next week. Given this synoptic setup, forecast temps near climo seem appropriate for much of the longer term periods.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 214 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

A weak front extended from about OKK to FWA to DFI. Fog was forming behind the front and was becoming dense in spots. Have left fog out of the terminals for now, but will continue to monitor for possible inclusion the rest of the night. As for thunderstorms, the activity has moved south and southeast out of the area for now. Mid level lapse rate continue to be very stable. A relatively small area of dry air has spread across northern Indiana and should help keep storms from forming today.
Otherwise, winds should remain light.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for INZ013-015- 020-022.
OH...None.
MI...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ078>081- 177-277.
MARINE...None.