Sunrise 5:20 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 5:28 PM   Moonset 3:42 AM

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LMZ046 Michigan City In To New Buffalo Mi- 340 Pm Edt Mon May 20 2024
Tonight - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms early, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Waves 2 feet or less. Tuesday - East winds 10 knots or less becoming south 10 to 15 knots. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday night - South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Gusts up to 25 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Wednesday - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature at st. Joseph is 57.

LMZ005
No data

FXUS63 KIWX 202340 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 740 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- A strong to locally severe thunderstorm is possible between 6 and 10 pm in NW Indiana/SW Lower MI as well as locally heavy rain.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday night, mainly west of IN-15 and then again along and east of I-69 Wednesday afternoon and evening.

- Warm and muggy conditions to be replaced by somewhat cooler and less humid air late this week into the Memorial Day weekend with some chances for showers and storms.

UPDATE
Issued at 732 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Freshening grids up to reflect current trends in the line of showers and storms extending from Marcellus to Lakeville and San Pierre. Outflow boundary was now ahead of the line, by several miles further north, which should result in a slow decrease in intensity over the next couple of hours. Damage has been reported in parts of LaPorte county as the strongest storm collapsed and the winds from the storm raced east. Some additional convection is noted across NE IL in an area of weak convergence. Even if this progresses east, it will be encountering a stabilized airmass in the wake of the main line which should help either dissipate them or at least keep them in check. No other changes made to grids for now.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 214 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Very summer-like pattern comes with summer like challenges for convection over the next couple of days in a rather moist and diurnally unstable environment. Highs the next several days will soar well into the 80s

Initial focus, with greatest (albeit still somewhat reserved)
confidence being with impacts of a MCV set to move across SE Wisconsin later this afternoon. While the best dynamics remain northwest of the area, a spoke of the wave does clip far NW areas, resulting in some weak convergence that may be sufficient to develop scattered showers and storms in the 22-00Z time frame.
NAM suite overly unimpressed with the development with other CAMs a bit more confident on some development (HRRR the greatest). Much like yesterday, shear profiles are rather paltry (20 kts or less) resulting in more pulse type convection that could drop a good deal of rain in a short time along with some threat for locally gusty winds/small hail. Confidence in eastward extent in the 00Z-04Z period decreases with loss of diurnal heating and continued NE track of the MCV removing the already limited convergence. Concerned that likely pops this evening may be overdone, but if it is going to occur, location is about right. Have made some adjustments to pops to reflect a bit more inland extent to the storms but continue with a weakening trend into the overnight hours.

Between 9Z Tue and quite possibly through 4-6Z Wed the best forcing will likely remain well north into MI with the warm front and well west with the cold front, resulting in a dry forecast despite increasing instability and shear during the afternoon and evening hours. 700 mb temps of +11 to +12 C edge in as well, further capping off any development. While a stray shower or storm could form across northern parts of the area during the morning and maybe late afternoon in the far W, by far the best chances look to wait to closer to 6Z Wed and beyond as a line of strong to severe storms will likely have moved across IL and be edging into western areas. A few CAMs show some possible additional development ahead of the line on more of a pre-frontal trough late evening with the main line then catching up. Several models show a fair amount of SFC based CIN taking shape overnight and the 50 kts of 0-6 km shear actually decreases just ahead of the approaching convection (still maintained along and behind). If the line holds together into the overnight hours, pockets of damaging winds and some large hail would be the main concerns. Slight risk in NW areas appears reasonable still for Tuesday night with greatest chances remaining well west of the area across E IA/W IL where a moderate risk for severe storms now exists.

Cold front will ease its way through Wednesday with the potential for some lingering cloud cover early. CAMs vary greatly on potential for development along and ahead of the front with stronger signals maybe residing just SE of our area during the afternoon/eve hours as better upper level dynamics take time to catch up with the front.
DY3 slight risk is warranted at this point, but may change over the next 24 to 36 hours as the mesoscale impacts of Tuesday night's convection becomes more apparent. New blend of models expands the likely pops well NW to match where the better chance for storms may exist (SE third or so-roughly I-69 east) and lingers into Wednesday evening. This could very well be overdone, but given the proximity of the front can't entirely dismiss.

Frontal boundary will settle south of the area, with models continuing to indicate a weak disturbance edging north from TX Thursday evening towards the Ohio Valley for Friday. Additional waves move in from the northern Plains the rest of the weekend into early next week resulting in several period of slgt chc to chc pops over the holiday weekend. Don't think by any means it will be a washout, but something to monitor in the coming days. The cloud cover will help keep it somewhat cooler during the day (70s).

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 732 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Line of storms which impacted KSBN with a 44 kt gust was quickly shifting east with impacts from the line expected to end by the valid time of the TAFs. Therefore have started the TAFs with no thunder as the line should have stabilized the atmosphere for the airport. Some additional storms are developing further west in an area of convergence from N of KPNT to N of KIKK. These should avoid the airport and most likely will dissipate over the next couple of hours. For KFWA, leaving any thunder or rain mention out for the time being as outflow boundary was racing ahead of the line which is resulting in a slow weakening trend.
Will need to watch if the outflow boundary is able to spark additional showers/storms but most likely won't do anything else.

VFR conditions have been maintained through the rest of the forecast as the main areas for additional storms remain west and north of both sites.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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