Justice, IL Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Justice, IL

June 13, 2024 3:27 PM CDT (20:27 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:14 AM   Sunset 8:28 PM
Moonrise 12:15 PM   Moonset 12:54 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LMZ742 Expires:202406140330;;959123 Fzus53 Klot 131939 Nshlot
nearshore marine forecast national weather service chicago/romeoville il 239 pm cdt Thu jun 13 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
lmz741-742-140330- wilmette harbor to northerly island il- northerly island to calumet harbor il- 239 pm cdt Thu jun 13 2024

.severe Thunderstorm watch 408 in effect until 8 pm cdt this evening - .

Late this afternoon - Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt becoming northwest 10 to 20 kt this afternoon. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

Tonight - Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 1 ft.

Friday - North winds 10 to 20 kt. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 ft.

Friday night - North winds 15 to 20 kt becoming northeast overnight. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 ft.

Saturday - East winds 10 to 15 kt. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 ft.

LMZ700
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Justice, IL
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Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 131936 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 236 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Several rounds of severe thunderstorms are possible are likely this afternoon and evening, especially along and south of I-80.

- Hot and humid conditions early next week.

- Periodic chances for showers and storms next week as well.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Through Friday Night:

Recent satellite imagery depicts an axis of agitated cumulus clouds extending from waukegan to Davenport within a broad zone of low-level confluence across the Lower Great Lakes. Lingering capping has thus far kept a lid on early attempts for sustained convection. However, continued surface heating (temperatures rising toward 90F), low-level moistening/pooling via southwesterly flow and evapotranspiration (dew points rising toward 70F), and mid-level cooling/moistening via evaporation of convective turrets into the base of the cap should eventually win the battle and lead to explosive thunderstorm development within the next few hours. Extrapolating the position of the axis of agitated cumulus clouds, such explosive development is poised to occur between the I-88 and I-80 corridor sometime between 2 and 4 PM. With MLCAPE >2500 J/kg (including some 1000 J/kg in the hail growth layer) and convective-layer shear >45kt (largely focused from 2-6 km), sustained thunderstorms will be poised to become supercells with a threat for destructive hail locally greater than 2" in diameter through the afternoon. With time, clustering of cells may lead to an increasing damaging wind threat including localized gusts as high as 75 mph.
Coverage of thunderstorms this afternoon remains an item of lower than average confidence, with anything from just an isolated cell or two to literally an entire line of supercells plausible.

Meanwhile, a second area of explosive thunderstorm development is expected in southern Iowa this afternoon near an area of focused low-level convergence along a cold front (e.g. the Level 3/5 threat area in the SPC outlook). Upscale growth into one or more clusters appears plausible as they move east-southeastward into western and central Illinois this evening. If coverage of thunderstorms this afternoon is relatively sparse, incoming convection from Iowa may provide a "round 2" of sorts along and south of I-80 where the receiver of MLCAPE >2500 J/kg remains.
Similar to this afternoon, any storm this evening will carry a threat for destructive hail >2" and, if clusters can become established, winds >75 mph. Moreover, if a west-to-east axis of thunderstorms were to materialize within a mesoscale zone, PWATS >2" would certainly support efficient downpours with a threat for localized flash flooding. The WPC threat level 2/5 area for flash flooding highlights the area well. In all, "round 2" may occur from 7 PM to as late as 3 AM.

Tomorrow will be decidedly quiet with seasonable temperatures (highs in the low to mid 80s) and a northwesterly breeze. A lake breeze should surge inland during the afternoon leading to cooling temperatures along the lakeshore.

Borchardt

Saturday and beyond:

An upper-level ridge is expected to begin to drift into the southern CONUS on Saturday which will continue to support dry conditions. While winds will begin to turn southerly on Saturday, the strongest warm advection is expected to be west of our area which will likely keep temperatures near more seasonable readings in the low to mid- 80s. Though, a lake breeze is forecast to develop and keep highs in the 70s near Lake Michigan, particularly the IL lakeshore.

Heading into Sunday, the aforementioned ridge is forecast to shift into the Mid-Atlantic region as a large upper-level trough establishes over the northwest CONUS. As this occurs southwest flow is expected to develop and advect in warmer and much more humid air. While guidance remains in decent agreement on the upper-level pattern, there continues to be uncertainty on how far east the ridge will drift on Sunday into the early part of next week. Therefore, the exact magnitude of heat remains a bit of a question mark. Regardless, there continues to be a strong signal (around 70-80% chance) for highs Sunday through at least Tuesday to be within the low to mid-90 range with the potential for readings to overperform, especially on Monday. Couple these temperatures with the forecasted increase in humidity (dew points in the mid to upper 60s to near 70) and there is a growing threat for heat indices to top out in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees early next week.

Depending on where exactly the aforementioned ridge sets up will also dictate whether or not the troughing over the western CONUS will be able to eject shortwaves into northern IL and generate periods scattered showers and thunderstorms. Given the previously mentioned uncertainty in the ridge position, the confidence on whether or not we will see any storms remains on the lower side. That said, any days that do see showers and storms may also see highs verify cooler than forecast which would in turn lower the threat for heat related concerns. To encompass this potential in the forecast I have maintained a 20% chance for showers and thunderstorms for most of the area Sunday through the middle of next week, but specifics on timing and coverage will likely need to be adjusted with future forecasts. Though, latest guidance is eyeballing the late Saturday night into Sunday timeframe as a favored period for showers and storms.

As for when this period of heat and humidity will break, guidance continues to hint at a cold front moving towards the region towards the later portion of next week. However, timing on when exactly the front, and associated relief, will move through continues to vary amongst the guidance. Couple this with the fact that guidance typically struggles with blocking patterns and confidence to say when a break in the heat will occur remains low at this time. Therefore, we recommend keeping updated on the forecast as we head into next week for any changes.

Yack

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Forecast concerns for the terminals...

- Scattered to widespread thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, some storms could be severe

- Winds become northerly behind a cold front this evening

- Lake breeze to move through the Chicago terminals Friday afternoon

Breezy west-southwest winds have developed at the terminals, especially the Chicago ones, this morning as the atmosphere has mixed into a low-level jet overhead. While this jet is gradually diminishing, gusts in the lower 20 kt range will likely persist through early afternoon.

At the same time, an upper disturbance and associated cold front will continue to move towards northern IL from WI which will aid in developing scattered to widespread thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. While confidence is high that storms will develop, the confidence on exact timing and coverage over the terminals, especially at RFD, is lower. Therefore, I have maintained the TEMPOs and their respective timings which seem reasonable based on latest guidance trends. However, I did extend the VCTS mentions at MDW and GYY an hour later to account for the potential for the front and associated storms to stall near I-80 this evening. Additionally, there is also the threat that any storms this afternoon and evening could become severe with the threats of large hail (possibly in excess of 2 inches), damaging winds (possibly in excess of 60 kts), and locally heavy rain which will result in reduced visibilities.

Storms will gradually come to an end from north to south late this evening as the front moves through. As a result winds will become northerly (possibly varying between 350 and 010) with speeds in the 6 to 8 kt range overnight and persist into Friday morning. Though a lake breeze is expected to develop early Friday afternoon and push through the Chicago terminals between 18z and 20z. Otherwise, expect mainly VFR conditions outside of storms with gradually scattering clouds overnight into Friday.

Yack

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
CNII2 14 mi28 minSW 8.9G15 85°F 63°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 16 mi58 minSW 8G15 29.81
OKSI2 16 mi88 minNW 1.9G2.9 88°F
45198 18 mi28 minWSW 12G18 80°F 63°F1 ft29.84
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 18 mi38 minW 16G17 90°F 74°F
45174 28 mi48 minSW 7.8G9.7 78°F 63°F1 ft29.7966°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 37 mi48 minWSW 7G14 86°F 29.85
45186 43 mi38 minS 9.7G16 79°F 59°F1 ft
45170 46 mi48 minW 5.8G9.7 72°F 1 ft29.85
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 49 mi38 minNW 14G15 80°F 29.7965°F


Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KMDW CHICAGO MIDWAY INTL,IL 6 sm34 minW 1110 smMostly Cloudy Thunderstorm Lt Rain 88°F66°F49%29.84
KORD CHICAGO O'HARE INTL,IL 16 sm36 minWSW 10G1910 smMostly Cloudy90°F70°F52%29.84
KLOT LEWIS UNIVERSITY,IL 17 sm32 minW 12G1810 smMostly Cloudy Thunderstorm in Vicinity 88°F70°F55%29.86
KIGQ LANSING MUNI,IL 22 sm12 minW 1210 smOvercast Thunderstorm in Vicinity 86°F70°F59%29.84
KDPA DUPAGE,IL 24 sm35 minW 1110 smA Few Clouds88°F70°F55%29.85
KGYY GARY/CHICAGO INTL,IN 24 sm22 minWSW 17G2810 smOvercast Thunderstorm in Vicinity 88°F70°F55%29.83
KJOT JOLIET RGNL,IL 24 sm12 minW 044 smOvercast Hvy Rain 81°F73°F79%29.87
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Wind History graph: MDW
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Chicago, IL,




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